It seems that investors are really determined not to give ABI a chance. The bottom line was below expectations in the first half of the year, but why is this a real surprise in the current inflationary environment? For our part, we still highlight the improving momentum and the attractive valuation.
Companies: AB INBEV (ABI:EBR)Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (ABI:BRU)
Strong Q1 FY21 results that were well ahead of consensus and, finally, the appointment of the new CEO have both to be applauded today. By recommendation well deserved, while the group is currently trading at a significant discount vs. European Staples and with a stock price having not already reached its pre-COVID-19 level.
A smaller hit to Q4 and FY20 sales expectations, with the performance in H2 quite reassuring. However, the cautious outlook on the FY21 margin slightly darkens the picture.
Q3 with top and bottom line beats, but the emergence of new restrictions and ABI’s decision to forgo the interim dividend slightly darken the picture.
A clear step in the right direction with a significant beat in Q2 and a strong month by month recovery. ABI has been the worst-performing beverage stock in Europe this year, with a valuation which now looks cheap. Still strong upside.
Companies: AB INBEV
Q1 figures broadly in line with expectations. Like its peers, Q2 is expected to be worse when taking into account that lockdowns are in many markets. The signs of recovery in China are, however, encouraging. No major changes expected in our estimates. While we don’t expect a quick return to normal, we certainly see no real downside potential as long as debt markets are supported by central banks.
A poor Q4, which strongly missed expectations on EBITDA (-5.5% vs. -1.9% expected). While FY20 guidance (2-5% EBITDA growth) appears soft, we believe that it is actually more reasonable following the H2 FY19 troubles which are likely to be exacerbated by the Coronavirus in the first half. Now trading at a discount to peers, we are just waiting for some visible improvements.
Weak Q3 numbers and downgraded guidance for FY EBITDA growth. At both the top- and bottom-line, the group disappointed. The slowdown in the main markets, higher cost of sales and yoy phasing of sales and marketing investments all negatively weighed on the results.
The market applauded ABI’s Australian divestment ($11.3bn), and rightly so. AB Inbev reacted quickly after it failed to IPO its Asian unit as a way to contract its immense debt ($106bn). It may well be that this shift (i.e. keeping Asia) means potential investments in emerging markets to offset the lacklustre US.
Strong Q4 on the back of a rebound in Brazil as well as better performances in China and Colombia. The US remains soft, although improved vs. Q3. As positives, we note a better than expected margin progression.
The improvment from quarter to quarter and positive FY18 outlook should be reassuring for shareholders.
Q2 update: revenue grew +5% organically (cons. +3.8%), volumes were up 1% (cons. +0.1%) whereas revenue per hl stood at +3.2%. The EBITDA margin was up 238 bp on an organic basis and -110bp on reported figures.
Organic revenue growth by region: North America 0% (cons. -0.9%), LatAm West +8.5% (cons. +6.4%), LatAm North -1.8% (cons. +0.7%), LatAm South 35.4% (cons. +27%), EMEA +10% (cons. +6.3%) and Asia Pacific +5.9% (cons. +5%).
By the most important markets, the US saw a better quarter with
Q1 update: revenue grew by +3.7% organically (cons. +2.8%), volumes were down -0.5% (cons. -0.6%), and revenue per hl stood at +4.3%. On the reported figures, revenue was up by 7%. The EBITDA margin was up by 76bps on an organic basis and flat on the reported figures.
Organic revenue growth by region: NorAm -2.1% (cons. -0.1%), LatAm West +3% (cons. +4.5%), LatAm North +2% (cons. +0.4%), LatAm South +27.4% (cons. +16%), EMEA + 4.9% (cons. +4%) and Asia Pacific +8% (cons. +3.5%).
By the most im
FY and Q4 update: In Q4, revenue grew +0.2% organically (cons. +3.1%), volumes were down 3.3% (cons. -0.8%), and revenue per hl stood at +3.9%. The EBITDA margin was down 152bp on an organic basis and -300bp on reported figures (FX headwinds) to 37%.
By the most important markets, Brazil remained weak (EBITDA in Q4 was down c.33%), although pricing improved. US volumes were down in line with Q3, however, margins improved. Mexico seems to be solid. China had a weaker quarter on strong comparabl
ABI Q3 update: On an organic basis, revenue grew +2.8% (cons. +3.4%). Volumes were down 0.9% (cons. -1.5%). Revenue per hl stood at 3.8%. On the reported figures, revenue is down 2.3%. The EBITDA margin contracted by 240bp on a reported basis and by 178bp on organic basis (due to Brazil).
Organic sales by region: North America -0.3% (cons. +0.7%), Mexico +12% (cons. +8.1%), LatAm North -5% (cons. +3.1%), LatAm South 22.2% (cons. 12.2%), Europe +3.1% (cons. +3%) and Asia 5% (cons. 4.9%).
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It seems that Diageo’s solid FY21 wasn’t enough to keep the share price up (-2.5% at the opening), but this does not extinguish our confidence in the group. Admittedly, the guidance, which is only qualitative, may seem insufficient and, yes, Diageo is the first spirits group to express concerns about a future decline in the off-trade (ultimately not very surprising!), but we believe that the current positive momentum should continue to drive sales levels above those of 2019 in the months to come
Companies: Diageo plc
As midsummer’s day looms (where has this year gone?), there is greater optimism, in general, than may have been anticipated a few months ago. A post-pandemic, ‘vaccine-driven’ recovery demonstrated by increased consumer spending as lockdown measures are lifted has been one of the catalysts. The FTSE 100 has been range-bound in the last month 6,900-7,100. We have seen a combination of broadly positive company results across a range of sectors, further examples of M&A activity and a sequence of ne
Companies: AMYT ARBB ARW BAG BEG BONH BWNG CWK DNK EML EPWN FBD FA/ GPH GSF GNC HUW IGC INSE KAPE KP2 MMAG NRR NESF OTMP ROL RUA SEN SUR TON TOU TXP TGL VLS WINK
What a difference a year makes - 12 months ago, the focus, quite understandably, was on the course of the pandemic and the lifting of the Lockdown (1) measures. For investors, it was the sustainability of the rally in markets seen since March 2020. Today, while we are still thinking about the lifting of lockdown measures, we are also concerned about two “old favourites” from previous decades. Inflation and the parlous state of public finances. The BoE has said that although CPI inflation rose to
Companies: AEMC BVC BAG BRSD BWNG CBOX CEG CTG CLG CML CRPR DNK EML ESC FAR FA/ GPH INSE MTW MOTR MMAG NRR NESF NMCN NSF OTMP OBD SAVE SCS STVG SNX SYS TMG TGL VLS VOG WYN
AG Barr’s (Barr) recent unscheduled trading update (20th July) made for pleasing reading, leading to a 15% upgrade to our FY22 forecasts. Barr has today provided a more detailed breakdown of the Group’s H1 22 outperformance, reflecting both robust underlying demand and some specific one-off events. We leave our recently upgraded FY22 profit expectations unchanged, though we do raise our under review FY23 forecast by 6.4% to EPS of 28.4p. Barr is a very high-quality business in our view, with a s
Companies: A.G. BARR p.l.c.
In our second edition of “Trend spotting” we note how in the last three weeks the defensive rotation trend has gathered pace and further evidence has emerged of the “relative fading” in the UK economy. However we now see early signs of the “risk on” trend starting to reassert itself in equity markets and we look at small cap laggards plus European exposure as ways to play this.
Companies: GNS REDD SPH TRI XAR BOY VCT GHH CHH DPH INS HILS RPS LWB EKF UDG SYNT MYSL BCA JUP KMK
Finsbury's AGM statement confirms that trading has remained resilient in FY21E, with the group expecting to deliver improved revenue and profitability this year. As such, with visibility improving, we are reinstating forecasts (FY21E Adj EBITDA of £26.0m). We also update our rating to Buy (from Under Review), which is driven by the group's low valuation (c7.7x FY21E P/E), planned reinstatement of the dividend (3.8% yield), and the increasing levels of FCF available to shareholders (11% FCF yield
Companies: Finsbury Food Group plc
Parsley Box, the direct to consumer provider of ready meals to the 60+ demographic, recently announced its AIM IPO plans. Parsley Box provides ready meals, which are not required to be stored in a fridge or freezer, have a shelf life of up to six months and are cooked in minutes. The company reported revenue of £24.4m for the financial year ended 31 December 2020 (unaudited). Deal details TBC and admission is expected to occur late March/ early April 2021. Caerus Mineral Resources, a London
Companies: SWEL TYM IUG CRU UFO SNT FFWD WAND INHC DEST
The UK market showed a continued recovery in the first quarter albeit the indices are still well short of their all-time peaks, unlike many of their international peers. The FTSE 100 has risen by 1,186 points (21.4%) since the end of October and the FTSE 250 by 4,304 points (25.0%). The comparable performance since the start of the year is less spectacular- the FTSE 100 has risen by 253 points (3.9%) and the FTSE 250 has risen by 1,070 points (5.0%). The factors behind the sustained rally are fa
Companies: AMYT ARBB CEG BAG BVC BEG BONH BLVN BRSD CML CWK CRPR EYE ECHO FDM FAR FA/ GPH GSF HUW INSE JDG KAPE KP2 MACF MPAC MNZS NESF NBI OTMP OBD PREM QFI RUA SCS SEN SOS SUR TON TOU TXP TGL TCN UEM VLS WYN
Mondelez delivered yet another all-around beat as it benefitted heavily from the persistent snacking trend across the globe despite the resumption of foodservice. The management continued its acquisition-led growth strategy and went on the acquire European cake and roll manufacturer Chipita for a consideration of $2 billion. With this acquisition, Mondelez added another $580 million to its top-line growing at a high-single-digit rate and of course, 13 production facilities. The positive snacking
Companies: MONDELEZ INTERNATIONAL INC-A (MDLZ:NYSE)Mondelez International, Inc. Class A (MDLZ:NAS)