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30 Jul 2020
Q220 results and 15 questions for management

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Q220 results and 15 questions for management
Summary of Q220 results
Q220 results were materially ahead of consensus expectations at both the top- and bottom-line. To be more specific, Q2 LFL sales at -17.7% were c.530bp better than consensus expectations with South America being the principal driver of the beat (-7.2% vs. consensus at -24.5%). Turning towards the bottom-line, EBITDA at USD3.4bn was c.12% ahead of consensus with LFL EBITDA declining by -34.1% (consensus -36.4%). While mindful that ABInBev is not a stock where investors pay much attention to EPS, underlying basic EPS at USD0.40 was +76% vs. consensus.
News
Volumes declined by -32.4% in April, -21.4% in May and June experienced +0.7% growth.
Earnings
We revise our FY20e/FY21e/FY22e EPS by +6%, +9% and +10% respectively. Conscious that the market tends to pay rather more attention to operational profits at ABInBev, we note that our FY20e EBIT is left broadly unchanged and we increase our FY21e and FY22e EBIT by +4% and +5% respectively (we increase our margin assumptions).
Investment thesis
ABInBev has three attributes that we are eager to avoid in the current environment: a material exposure to out-of-home sales (we estimate that the on-trade accounts for c.36% of sales), high financial leverage and a material exposure to Latin America (the area where we have greatest macro concern).
Rating / target price
We maintain our Underperform rating. Our target price moves from EUR41 to EUR42.
15 questions for management
Can you please shed colour on the stock replenishments influencing the +0.7% June volume?