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A number of REITs have the ability to thrive in current market conditions and thereafter. Not only do they hold assets that will remain in strong demand, but they have focus and transparency. The leases and underlying rents are structured in a manner to provide long visibility, growth and security. Hardman & Co defined an investment universe of REITs that we considered provided security and “safer harbours”. We introduced this universe with our report published in March 2019: “Secure income” REITs – Safe Harbour Available. Here, we take forward the investment case and story. We point to six REITs, in particular, where we believe the risk/reward is the most attractive.
Companies: AGY ARBB ARIX BUR CMH CLIG DNL HAYD NSF PCA PIN PXC PHP RE/ RECI SCE SHED VTA
COVID-19 update – continuing to operate, div. suspended
Companies: Scapa Group
Following our headline ’Settled!?’ on 25/06/2020, our new headline looks a bit revanchist as we had expected that Bayer ‘just’ wanted to manage expectations by pointing to the fact the mechanism has to be approved by the judge. The judge’s doubts on the planned mechanism for the glyphosate-related cases might sweep current management away. Or the company gets a different name.
We still have not made up our minds and it will be quite challenging to come to a conclusion without additional information. Nevertheless, the preliminary figures guide to a stronger than expected Q2. Even profitability was far better but, without additional details, it is quite difficult to see where the performance stems from. Preliminary figures were marginally above our estimates, but beat consensus at the profitability level.
Whether we know it or not, advanced materials are a core component in the everyday life of the everyday person. They are the key material in items we often disregard, such as printer inks and lotions, to objects which defy the laws of gravity like the Airbus A380 and London’s Shard. Furthermore, these materials are not only essential to many objects and structures, but, due to their superior qualities, are the key to the advancement of many industries. One such example is the use of carbon fibre which offers five to ten times more rigidness, stiffness, and strength than its aluminium counterpart. As a result of these impressive qualities, motorsport and athletics have improved ten-fold since their mainstream use and new records are broken every year.
Companies: AGM AUTG BIOM BOY CAR CKT EMH EXO GRPH HAYD IKA ITX CRPR MGAM NANO OXIG SYN SCE SYM VCT ZEN HDD
Significant uptick in R&D output. After a very disappointing 2016, as measured by the number of new drugs approved by the FDA (23), we have seen 22 new product approvals year-to-date. We now expect the 2017 output to be above the 16-year median of 22 NDAs (New Drug Application) and 5 BLAs (Biologic Licence Application). As previously commented on, BLAs are expected to represent an increasing proportion of overall approvals. The most notable approval in the past quarter was AstraZeneca’s Imfinzi (durvalumab), not because of its use in metastatic bladder cancer but for its potential use as a first-line therapy in surgically unresectable Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) following an interim analysis of a Phase III trial (PACIFIC), which showed a statistically significant increase in progression-free survival.
Companies: ABZA AGY APH AVCT BVXP BYOT COG CTH LID MTFB ODX OPTI YGEN PRM SDI TSTL AKR
Companies: ABZA AGY AVCT BVXP BYOT COG DPH LID ODX OPTI YGEN PRM SDI SNG TSTL AKR
The prospect of Hilary Clinton creating an oversight panel with the power to impose a set of harsh enforcement rules to control aggressive pricing of pharmaceuticals in the US fell away with the election of Trump, leading to a 16% bounce in the NASDAQ Biotech index and an 8% increase in the US Pharma & Biotech index, some of which has already been given back.
Companies: ABZA BVXP BYOT COG DPH EKF LID ODX YGEN PRM SDI SNG TSTL AKR VEC
In light of the Brexit vote, we reflect upon the implications for the NHS and the wider healthcare industry. We take a pragmatic approach to how the referendum result will affect staffing, recruitment, clinical trials, drug pricing and small company grant funding in the coming months and years.
Companies: AOR BVXP BYOT COG DPH EKF LID ODX YGEN PRM SDI SNG TSTL AKR VEC
A sticky situation…
In October 2019 Applied Graphene’s (AGM’s) management announced it was re-aligning resources around dispersion and application technology to better support product development with customers presenting the nearest-term revenue opportunities. This focus supported six customer launches of coating products containing AGM’s graphene dispersion during calendar year 2019. These launches are for both mass-market and specialist applications. As a result of the ensuing uptick in product sales, revenues so far for FY20 are already 20% higher than the whole of FY19.
Companies: Applied Graphene Materials
Adrian Potts, the CEO of Applied Graphene Materials (AGM), discusses the company’s commercial progress over the course of the past 12 months, which saw the launch of a number of coatings products based on AGM’s graphene dispersions. These products include industrial anti-corrosion products from Blocksil and Alltimes Coatings and retail products from Halfords and Hycote. He also highlights the progress made in the composite and functional materials markets and why initiatives to develop water-based dispersions are key to enlarging the addressable market. Finally, he explains how management has strengthened its routes to market and the actions the company has taken to mitigate the impact of COVID-19.
Applied Graphene Materials is a leading innovator in the manufacture and application of graphene. The company has developed a proprietary ‘bottom-up’ process for the production of high specification graphene and owns the intellectual property and know-how behind this process. The company’s immediate commercial focus is on the coatings market, where products based on AGM’s graphene dispersions can provide demonstrably improved corrosion protection versus incumbent technologies.
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Companies: Haydale Graphene Industries
Following trading updates on 27 April and 14 May, we are introducing forecasts for FY 2021, confident that the demand for disinfection products is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels. Byotrol’s strong order book (>£2m) at the end of April and improving supply chain management for biocidal ingredients, as countries exit lockdown measures, also underpin our confidence. We forecast a 67% increase in revenues to £10m with adjusted EBITDA and pre-tax profit of £1.1m (£0.25m) and £0.7m, respectively. With the pandemic likely to have resulted in a secular shift towards improved disinfection prevention and the prospect for upgrades on further IP licence agreements, we reiterate our target price of 9p, at which level the stock would trade on 3.8x sales
Yara will release its Q2/20 results on Friday 17 June. We have lowered our estimates marginally ahead of the report, and we are currently a modest 1% above consensus. Urea prices have shown strength over the past two weeks and are set to improve further during H2/20. The combination with depressed gas prices will continue to support earnings, and will in our view continue to provide downside protection. We stick to our Buy rating and our NOK 400 TP.
Companies: YARA INTERNATIONAL