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The Q2 was slightly better than expected. We expect Proximus to see modest sales and Ebitda growth in the coming years.
However Proximus has been lagging behind its peers on fibre deployment and needs to invest. The group is not yet out of the woods in terms of its EBITDA less capex and is unlikely to increase its dividends any time soon.
The group is trading at a significant discount and we maintain our Buy opinion despite seeing no catalyst in the short term.
Companies: Proximus (PROX:EBR)Proximus SA de droit public (PROX:BRU)
Like in the previous quarter, the Q4 EBITDA was disappointing, down by 4.7% yoy and lfl. The good point is, however, that Proximus expects its Domestic revenue and EBITDA to grow up to 1% yoy in 2022.
In line with its accelerated fibre deployment, Proximus’ capex should grow by 8% in 2022 to exceed 20% of its sales. Well, the group has not yet left the inn and is unlikely to increase its dividends any time soon. We remain, however, at Buy.
Domestic revenue was slightly disappointing, down by 2.1% yoy and lfl. Consumer revenue was indeed down by 1.6% due to the ongoing trend of Consumers opting increasingly for a product combination excluding a Fixed Voice line.
We remain at Buy on the stock which remains heavily discounted vs its peers but Proximus is lagging behind in the deployment of fibre compared to its peers and has to invest. So no catalyst in the short term.
Proximus’ Q1 was globally in line with expectations.
The key point is that Proximus has been lagging behind in the deployment of fibre compared to its peers and has to invest. So the group has not yet left the inn and should not immediately increase its dividends.
In our view, even if there is quite a solid upside in the long term for the stock there are few catalysts in the short term for the price to take off.
The stock was down by 10% last Friday (26 February) after the release of a disappointing Q4 but, above all, a poor outlook for 2021. Management expects indeed only flat revenues and an EBITDA down by 3-4% yoy, while capex should up by 20%.
However, we still believe that, given the investments made, Proximus deserves a degree of reappraisal as its yield remains safe and the dividend may ultimately grow with the pay-back on its speedier and augmented capex.
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Dish of the day
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What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?**
Unigel Group, intends to join the Aquis Growth Market. Unigel Group is a pioneer in the field of thixotropic gels for the fibre optic cable industry. The Company is also a supplier of laminated steel tapes to the fibre optic cable industry in the US. Thixotropic gels and laminated steel tapes are essential components to the rapidly growing global fibre optic cable market. The Group exports
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Update to forecasts – Neutral
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Verizon gave a decent performance in the last quarter with a 3.9% growth of the service revenue and also a growth in earnings. Its performance was supported by a robust net addition in broadband and wireless, both translating to the growth of the bottom line. Third parties such as JD Power and RootMetrics continue to recognize Verizon as the best network experience. The company received great momentum on the consecutive front, in the adoption of 5G, with more than 25% of its consumer phone base
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Dish of the day
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River and Mercantile Group has left the Main Market following a reverse takeover by AssetCo (AIM:ASTO). Marshall Motors has left AIM. Ocean Outdoor has left the Main Market.
What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?
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Iliad makes an offer to buy 100% of Vodafone-Italia for c.€11-11.5bn.
These mobile activities with a solid 35% EBITDA margin could help Iliad conquer a significant market share on the fixed side by financing its launch and ramp-up.
But Vodafone may not be very eager to sell these assets, so this offer won’t be enough to tilt the balance.
These takeover proposals show, however, that telcos are undervalued while they are still considered primarily as dividend stocks.
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A correct release globally in line with expectations (slight slowdown in revenue growth in Q4 but a slightly better than expected FCF for the full year) but the outlook given by management for 2022/23 is quite cautious (this is the upper range of the guidance which corresponds to our estimates).
We maintain our opinion at Buy. Note, however, the CEO Nick Read is rather under fire after missing opportunities in Italy (Iliad), Spain (Orange-Masmovil merger) and with Vantage.
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Verizon had a stellar quarter and produced an all-around beat with a strong increase in consumer revenue as well as business revenue. The management's strong 5G push has resulted in the company adding as many as 275,000 postpaid phone subscribers, nearly a 100,000 more than the market expectations. The company has spent over $45 billion on the 5G spectrum in 2020 and has a very high level of debt on its balance sheet which might create some market concerns but its recent subscriber is generating
T-Mobile has striven to provide the best pricing and network while operating in a cutthroat market and a macroeconomic situation that is rapidly changing. The company delivered a below par result failing to meet Wall Street expectations but the positive was that the management lifted its full-year guidance across the board. They also expanded the availability of T-Mobile Business Internet, making T-Mobile the first and only countrywide provider of the Internet for businesses. Given the fact that
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