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  • 30 Jul 19
Securing its solid position on the TV side thanks to its fibre deployment

Proximus is a no-growth story for 2019… but is securing quarter after quarter its solid position on the Belgian TV side thanks to the deployment of its fibre network. The stock has recovered 35% since July 2018. It is no longer very far off our target price which has not changed much in a year. We maintain our opinion at Add on the stock.

Companies: Proximus
  • 01 Mar 19
A no-growth story for 2019 but a secure dividend

Proximus is a no-growth story for 2019. The stock had recovered with a 20% increase during Q4. The stock is down by 6% this morning, investors preferring to move towards growth stocks while shedding no growth yield values. We believe however this is still an opportunity to buy the stock given the secure yield and the fact that the group is currently winning, slowly but surely, market share on the TV side.

Companies: Proximus
  • 26 Oct 18
Gains market share on Telenet on the TV side

The key point to highlight is that Proximus is currently winning market share (likely 34.5% at end 2018 vs 32% at end 2016) on the TV side vs Telenet. Even if Proximus does not offer genuine growth prospects and will have to face Telenet’s offensive in the quadruple play, its restructuring enables it to be more competitive and well positioned to maintain its leadership in 4G and to win market shares on TV… and also to offer a strong dividend.

Companies: Proximus
  • 04 May 18
A secure 6% dividend yield

Q1 revenues were flat yoy. And that is indeed slightly better than in the previous quarter (-0.9% in Q4). Domestic revenues were up by 0.9% yoy thanks to the Fixed data and TV services and despite the impact of the “Roam like at home” regulation, while revenue from BICS (the International Carrier division combined with that of the African telco MTN) were down by 3.9% yoy (it had decreased by 6.6% in Q4), but they included the consolidation of TeleSign for one month more. As in previous quarters, the EBITDA did better than revenues with a 1.1% increase (like in Q4), the regulatory roaming impact being offset by the ongoing solid reduction in operating expenses: domestic EBITDA was up by 0.8% yoy, while BICS’s EBITDA was up by 5%. Thus for 2018, the group still expects stable Domestic revenues and an EBITDA which should grow slightly thanks to the cost efficiencies realised: Proximus is well placed to deliver upon its announced cost reduction plan, targeting a €150m net reduction in expenses by 2019, in comparison with 2015.

Companies: Proximus
  • 05 Mar 18
Slight EBITDA growth for 2018

The group released last Friday (2 March) its Q4 results. Q4 revenues were down by 0.9% yoy, a slighter less decline compared to the -3.2% yoy recorded in both Q3 and Q2. Domestic revenues were indeed up by 0.9% despite the impact of the “Roam like at home” regulation, while revenue from BICS (the International Carrier division combined with that of the African telco MTN) were down by 6.6% (vs -12% in Q3 and Q2), but they included two months’ consolidation of TeleSign (the organic decline was indeed still 11.3% yoy). Note that adjusted for TeleSign, Q4 revenues were indeed down organically by 1.9% yoy. As in previous quarters, the EBITDA did better than revenues with a 1% increase (vs a 2.2% decline in Q3), the regulatory roaming impact being partly offset by the ongoing solid reduction in operating expenses: domestic EBITDA was up by 0.8% yoy, while BICS’s EBITDA was up by 3% (and flat yoy excluding TeleSign). As for 2018, although the group expects stable Domestic revenues, EBITDA should, however, grow slightly thanks to the cost efficiencies realised: Proximus is well placed to deliver upon its announced cost reduction plan, targeting a €150m net reduction in expenses by 2019, in comparison with 2015. In parallel the 2018 capex is estimated to be around €1bn, including a further progress on Proximus’ “Fibre for Belgium” project. In line with its three-year commitment announced at end 2016, Proximus still expects to return over 2018 and 2019 a stable dividend of €1.50 per share.

Companies: Proximus
  • 09 Nov 17
Solid Consumer results despite the roaming regulation

The group released last week its Q3 results. Q3 revenues were down by 3.2% yoy, like in Q2 (as a reminder, revenues were, however, up by 0.7% yoy in Q1). Domestic revenues were indeed only stable yoy (as expected given the impact of the “Roam like at home” regulation), while revenue from BICS (the International Carrier division combined with that of the African telco MTN) were down by 12.1%, like in Q2, driven by volatility in the voice business, combined with a less favourable destination mix and a negative USD currency effect. As in previous quarters, the EBITDA did better than revenues with a 2.2% decline, the regulatory roaming impact being partly offset by the ongoing solid reduction in operating expenses: domestic EBITDA was down by 1.9% yoy, while BICS’s EBITDA was down by 5%.

Companies: Proximus
  • 28 Jul 17
Still good on the Consumer side but disappointing on Enterprise

Q2 revenues were down by 2.9% yoy, a rather disappointing number given the 0.7% yoy growth recorded in Q1. Domestic revenues were indeed stable yoy as they were up by a solid 3.2% in Q1, while revenue from BICS (the International Carrier division combined with that of the African telco MTN) were down by 12.9%, a sharper decrease than in the two previous quarters, driven by volatility in the voice business, combined with a less favourable destination mix. As in previous quarters, the EBITDA did better than revenues with 0.4% growth, driven by the ongoing solid reduction in operating expenses: domestic EBITDA was up by 1.1% yoy, while BICS’s EBITDA was down by 8.4%. Taking into account the implementation of ‘Roam-Like-At-Home’ as of mid-June, Proximus has confirmed its 2017 full-year outlook: nearly stable domestic revenue and slightly growing EBITDA, supported by its cost reduction plan.

Companies: Proximus
  • 09 May 17
Robust customer growth

Q1 revenues were up by 0.7% yoy. A good number indeed as Domestic revenues were up by a very solid 3.2% while revenue from BICS (the International Carrier division combined with that of the African telco MTN) were down by 6.6%, like in Q4, due to a less favourable destination mix. And, as in 2016, the good news was the strong increase in EBITDA (+4% yoy, the regional pylon tax effect aside) driven by the ongoing firm reduction in operating expenses. Taking into account the implementation of ‘Roam-Like-At-Home’ as of mid-June, Proximus has confirmed its 2017 full-year outlook: nearly stable domestic revenue and slightly growing EBITDA, supported by its cost reduction plan. Note Proximus’s capex is expected to be around €1bn and in line with the previously announced three-year dividend commitment, Proximus expects to return a stable dividend of €1.50 per share over 2017-19.

Companies: Proximus
  • 03 Nov 16
More competitive to face Liberty

Q3 revenues were down by 1.4% yoy. This is indeed a good performance because if we exclude the expected sharp 9% drop in BICS revenues (the International Carrier division combined with that of the African telco MTN) due to lower voice traffic to African regions, domestic revenues have grown by 1.5%, a slightly better performance than the 0.3% growth recorded in H1. Like in H1, the good news of the release is that, for Q3, the group managed to sustain solid EBITDA growth, up by 5.5% yoy (vs 4% in Q1) for Domestic, and growing by 4.7% for the group (vs +2.1% in H1). The on-going restructuring is bearing the first fruit. Thus management feels comfortable in raising its full-year guidance to growth of 3% to 4% for EBITDA.

Companies: Proximus
  • 29 Jul 16
A good Q2 excluding the African business of BICS

Q2 revenues were down by 3% yoy. It is indeed a good performance even if it was expected (revenues were down by 3.1% in Q1) because, if we exclude the sharp 12.7% drop in BICS revenues (the International Carrier division combined with that of the African telco MTN) due to lower voice traffic to African regions, domestic revenues grew indeed by 0.7% yoy (they were stable in Q1). But, like in Q1, the good news of the release is that, for Q2, the group managed to sustain solid EBITDA growth, up by 4.1% yoy (vs 3.8% in Q1) for Domestic, and growing by 1.7% for the group. Management reconfirmed its full-year guidance, with 2016 Domestic revenue and group EBITDA expected to grow slightly.

Companies: Proximus
  • 04 May 16
Improvement in cost efficiency

Q1 revenues were down by 3.1% yoy but this is due to the sharp 10.9% drop in BICS revenues. BICS is the International Carrier division combined with that of the African telco MTN and the drop is due to lower voice traffic to African regions. Domestic revenues were indeed stable yoy. But the good news of the release is that for Q1, the group managed to sustain solid EBITDA growth, up by 3.8% for Domestic, and growing by 2.5% for the group. This was driven by a continued growth in Fixed and Mobile Services, delivering a stronger direct margin (+14% yoy!). The sustained progress in EBITDA comes also from consistently executing on the “Fit for Growth” strategy, enhancing the customer experience and focusing on value-accretive customer growth (the Domestic operating expenses were reduced by 0.9% yoy during Q1 thanks to efficiency gains). Management reconfirmed itsfull-year guidance, with 2016 Domestic revenue and group EBITDA expected to grow slightly. The EBITDA objective will be supported by the progress on efforts to reduce costs. In this context, the CEO, Dominique Leroy, has informed that the workers union has approved Proximus’s proposal for a voluntary early leaving plan prior to retirement, which will come into force on 1 July 2016.

Companies: Proximus

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Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Proximus. We currently have 11 research reports from 1 professional analysts.

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  • 06 Apr 20
LIBERUM: SigmaRoc* - Strong liquidity position and cash flow maximisation

SigmaRoc has issued an update on the impact of Covid-19 containment issues. It is adopting a pragmatic approach, operating facilities where this can be done safely and in compliance with government guidelines, and subject to demand (which continues to come from maintenance, agriculture and infrastructure).

Companies: Sigmaroc
  • 06 Apr 20
Cenkos: Oil & Gas Sector -- 88 Energy, Premier Oil, United Oil & Gas, UK Oil & Gas Plc, Empyrean Energy, Apache Corporation, Total SA, Tullow Oil, Neptune Energy, Equinor ASA, Westmount Energy, FAR, Energean Oil & Gas, BP Plc, TransGlobe Energy, JKX Oil &

Oil posted a record weekly jump on hopes that global producers will decide to make historic output cuts next week, though optimism was tempered by concern that the curbs will not avert a glut. The OPEC+ coalition including Saudi Arabia will hold a meeting of its members by video conference on Monday, with the gathering open to even producers outside the group. While it's unclear who will attend, market watchers are predicting that stockpiles are likely to swell even if global supplies are cut by 10 million barrels a day. Investors will be closely watching the guest list of the meeting -- especially names outside the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies -- after Saudi Arabia made clear it will only cut production if others, including the US, shoulder some of the burden. US West Texas Intermediate futures ended the week up 32%, while Brent crude jumped 37%. Still, prices are less than half the levels at the start of the year, with the coronavirus crisis crushing demand. One delegate from the producer group said a global cut of 10 million barrels a day is a realistic goal. Russian President Vladimir Putin told the country's top oil executives that producing countries should join together to slash output to reverse the collapse in prices, adding that worldwide curbs of a little above or below 10 million barrels a day are possible. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump is convening an extraordinary gathering of the nation's biggest refiners and producers at the White House on Friday. They are expected to discuss possible relief efforts from the administration, including potential American output cuts. Prices:  West Texas Intermediate for May delivery rose $3.02 to settle at $28.34 a barrel Friday.  Global benchmark Brent crude for June settlement jumped 14% to $34.11 a barrel.  Gasoline futures rose 2.88 cents to 69.16 cents a gallon Friday. Getting countries from all over the world to agree would be a tough task. Even if that's successful, an output reduction of the size that's being discussed will be just a fraction of the 35 million barrels of daily demand destruction some traders now see

Companies: FOG PVR 88E DGOC EME UKOG TRIN UOG

  • 07 Apr 20
Positive news flow from 24i

Following the news that T-Mobile Czech Republic and Slovak Telecom have deployed 24i’s Smart Operator suite, Amino has confirmed a contract win with streaming video service Topic for 24i’s Smart OTT and Smart BACKSTAGE products. The releases do not comment on their potential values to Amino, and we leave forecasts unchanged. However, against the backdrop of ongoing COVID-19-driven global macro uncertainty, in our view the announcements represent welcome positive news flow. The contracts demonstrate further progress in both Amino’s move towards a more software-led business model and the group’s ability to address a more diverse client base.

Companies: Amino Technologies
  • 01 Apr 20
A seismic shift in the way we live and work

The Coronavirus pandemic is a human tragedy of vast proportions – as well as the terrible human toll, COVID-19 has led to economies across the globe going into physical lockdown and financial freefall. Entire populations are adapting to the “stay at home” edict, to safeguard the vulnerable – and some of these changes will lead to long-lasting or perhaps permanent changes in the way we live or work. This note describes some of our client companies whose business models are well adapted to these changes, or who might see a change in long-term structural demand.

Companies: AMO BGO FDM GAMA KAPE LOOP TERN ZOO

  • 16 Mar 20
Cenkos: Oil & Gas Sector - Diversified Gas & Oil, UK Oil & Gas, Trinity Exploration & Production, Tullow Oil, Cairn Energy, Pharos Energy, Vaalco Energy, Transglobe Energy, Valeura Energy, Touchstone Exploration, Serica Energy, Gran Tierra Energy, EnQuest

Oil posted the biggest weekly plunge since 2008, capping its most dramatic week in recent memory as major producers prepare to drench the market with supply just as the coronavirus crushes demand. But prices jumped following the close, after President Donald Trump said the U.S. would fill the nation's strategic reserve. Losses for the week totalled 23% after the collapse of talks between members of the OPEC+ group triggered the biggest crash in a generation. Instead of reaching a deal to cut output to mitigate the fallout from the virus, producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia embarked on a war for market share and pledged to pump more.

Companies: TGL TXP VLU EGY GTE CNE DGOC ENQ SQZ UKOG TRIN TLW PHAR

  • 09 Apr 20
Maiden EBITDA profit in H2; PTT gaining traction

Finals from Mobile Tornado, a leading global provider of Push to Talk (PTT) solutions, were in line with January’s trading update and our revised forecasts with revenue +16% to £3.5m and adj. EBITDA (pre-IFRS 16) loss of £0.3m (FY18: £0.9m loss). There was growth in H2 over H1 and combined with good cost control, MBT was EBITDA breakeven in H2 – an important milestone. During FY19, MBT secured strategic clients in multiple territories and sectors (Public and Private) and major public safety contract negotiations are ongoing on three continents. MBT continues to enhance its product offering and can offer a fast, scalable, secure and high function PTT solution with more functionality and at a significantly lower total cost of ownership compared with traditional LMR services. COVID-19 may act as a catalyst for many organisations to upgrade communication systems. That said, the potential disruption on sales cycles/deployments is unclear and hence we are holding off introducing FY20 forecasts for the time being.

Companies: Mobile Tornado Group
  • 05 Nov 19
LIBERUM: SigmaRoc* - Blue chip investment

SigmaRoc has acquired Carrières du Hainaut (CdH) for €81m EV, funded by debt and a £33m share placing. This has enhanced EPS by c.20%.

Companies: Sigmaroc
  • 30 Jan 20
Expenses that still don't pay off

No real surprise with BT’s Q3 trading update but we get the feeling that recovery will not come into force soon. The group remains highly discounted vs. its peers with in particular an 8.5% dividend yield which suggests however that the dividend may be lowered in the near future. For the first 9m BT’s free cash flow was indeed down £737m to £1,000m due to increased capex and the deposit for UEFA club football rights.

Companies: BT Group
  • 30 Mar 20
LIBERUM: SigmaRoc* - Scope to withstand very long lock-down

SigmaRoc’s shares have fallen by 49% since 21 February. We think this is an over-reaction as the market has underestimated the financial strength of the group and its liquidity position.

Companies: Sigmaroc
  • 21 Oct 19
Quarterly Research Outlook Autumn 2019

Following continued delays of a Brexit agreement, few sectors within the UK market have remained attractive to investors despite low valuations. One sector which has continued to outperform despite the political drama has been the UK video gaming sector (henceforth UK gaming), which we are fans of. We believe a combination of sector-leading growth, strong cash conversion and timely cyclical positioning support our positive view on the UK video gaming sector.

Companies: ABBY AMS ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CDM CSRT TIDE CYAN DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPO FDEV GTLY GENL GHH GRI GEEC GKP HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KAPE KEYS KWS KCT KGH LAM LIT LOK MACF MANO MOD OXIG PCA PANR APP SRE PHC PMO RBW RMM RBGP REDD RSW RNO ROR SUS SCPA SEN SHG SOLG SOM SUMO TM17 INCE TWD TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF

  • 09 Mar 20
Allenby Capital TMT Update - 09.03.20 (TERN.L, CPX.L, MWE.L, STAR.L, BBSN.L)

Tern plc* (TERN.L, 7.75p/£20.9m) | CAP-XX Ltd* (CPX.L, 2.85p/£9.2m) | MTI Wireless Edge Ltd* (MWE.L, 34.5p/£30.3m) | Starcom plc* (STAR.L, 1.275p/£4.4m) | Brave Bison plc* (BBSN.L, 1.15p/£7.0m)

Companies: TERN CPX MWE STAR BBSN

  • 17 Mar 20
FY 2019 leaves Telit well placed to build LT value

FY 2019 saw a strong financial and operational performance. The management team is working hard to optimise its sales strategy and pursue further cost reductions. The results of its efforts are already visible in much improved financials: growth in all the ongoing businesses and in all regions; and stronger margins from better revenue mix and streamlining. The sale of Automotive in February 2019 focused Telit on Industrial IoT, removed a heavy R&D burden and left the group very well-funded. Cash is to be partially returned to shareholders depending on the developing Covid-19 situation. Even in an uncertain times, the year leaves Telit very well placed with tremendous upside to build LT value through numerous opportunities as a global leader in the growing IoT market.

Companies: Telit Communications
  • 30 Mar 20
COVID-19 update

Amino has released an update on the impact of COVID-19 on the business. Overall, the devices supply chain is returning to normal but the pandemic is now impacting customer spending and the FY 20E outlook clearly remains uncertain. Pending market stabilisation, dividend payments have therefore been suspended - including the proposed FY 19A final dividend which retains an additional $5m within the business. The group has financial headroom of $13.7m as of today. The strategic move towards software, alongside a broader product set and more diversified customer base following the 24i acquisition in our view gives Amino a strong platform, and financial position, to face the challenges arising from COVID-19.

Companies: Amino Technologies