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Domestic revenues were up by 4.3% yoy in Q3 exactly like in H1: a good number as the H2 was supposed to be less strong. Domestic EBITDA, which was down by only 0.7% yoy, was also better than expected. The group raised its guidance for 2023: revenue should grow by 3.5/4% (vs 2/3% previously) while the EBITDA decline should be limited to 2% (vs -3% previously). We maintain our opinion at Buy.
Companies: Proximus (PROX:EBR)Proximus SA (PROX:BRU)
AlphaValue
An H1 in line with the 2023 guidance given in January. The dividend which was rebased to €0.60 for 2024-25 was something of a disaster for the stock that will be stuck at the current level for quite a while as its EBITDA-capex is unlikely to increase any time soon. The important long-term potential of the recent acquisition of Route Mobile is not valued by the market. In five years the stock will be worth much more than today.
The stock was down by 2.5% this morning with the release of Proximus’ new 3 year strategic plan. EBITDA is expected to return to growth as of 2024, following a temporary decline of around 3% in 2023 when the inflation impact is expected to peak. By 2025, EBITDA is expected to return to the 2022-level. As a result, while in 2023 the dividend will be stable at €1.20, it will however be rebased to €0.6 over 2024-25.
The Q2 was slightly better than expected. We expect Proximus to see modest sales and Ebitda growth in the coming years. However Proximus has been lagging behind its peers on fibre deployment and needs to invest. The group is not yet out of the woods in terms of its EBITDA less capex and is unlikely to increase its dividends any time soon. The group is trading at a significant discount and we maintain our Buy opinion despite seeing no catalyst in the short term.
Companies: Proximus SA (PROX:BRU)Proximus SA (0DPU:LON)
Like in the previous quarter, the Q4 EBITDA was disappointing, down by 4.7% yoy and lfl. The good point is, however, that Proximus expects its Domestic revenue and EBITDA to grow up to 1% yoy in 2022. In line with its accelerated fibre deployment, Proximus’ capex should grow by 8% in 2022 to exceed 20% of its sales. Well, the group has not yet left the inn and is unlikely to increase its dividends any time soon. We remain, however, at Buy.
Domestic revenue was slightly disappointing, down by 2.1% yoy and lfl. Consumer revenue was indeed down by 1.6% due to the ongoing trend of Consumers opting increasingly for a product combination excluding a Fixed Voice line. We remain at Buy on the stock which remains heavily discounted vs its peers but Proximus is lagging behind in the deployment of fibre compared to its peers and has to invest. So no catalyst in the short term.
Proximus’ Q1 was globally in line with expectations. The key point is that Proximus has been lagging behind in the deployment of fibre compared to its peers and has to invest. So the group has not yet left the inn and should not immediately increase its dividends. In our view, even if there is quite a solid upside in the long term for the stock there are few catalysts in the short term for the price to take off.
The stock was down by 10% last Friday (26 February) after the release of a disappointing Q4 but, above all, a poor outlook for 2021. Management expects indeed only flat revenues and an EBITDA down by 3-4% yoy, while capex should up by 20%. However, we still believe that, given the investments made, Proximus deserves a degree of reappraisal as its yield remains safe and the dividend may ultimately grow with the pay-back on its speedier and augmented capex.
A good Q3 with a resilient and better-than-expected EBITDA. As a result Proximus has revised its 2020 guidance upwards with EBITDA-CAPEX at €830m vs €780m-800m previously. Over 2020-22 the group is supposed to return a dividend of €1.2 (-20% compared to 2019 to invest more than ever in fibre and 5G). This level should, however, be considered as a floor and we believe the dividend could be raised earlier than currently expected.
Companies: Proximus SA
A correct Q2 with in particular a very good resilience in the EBITDA, which was down by only 1.5% yoy despite a logical 5.9% decline in revenues due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Proximus reiterates once again its 2020 full-year guidance of EBITDA minus capex of €780-800m. Therefore the new dividend of €1.20 over 2020-22 proposed in early 2020 has to be considered as… a floor perfectly sustainable over the period. We maintain our Buy opinion on the stock.
Proximus is a no-growth story for 2019… but is securing quarter after quarter its solid position on the Belgian TV side thanks to the deployment of its fibre network. The stock has recovered 35% since July 2018. It is no longer very far off our target price which has not changed much in a year. We maintain our opinion at Add on the stock.
Proximus is a no-growth story for 2019. The stock had recovered with a 20% increase during Q4. The stock is down by 6% this morning, investors preferring to move towards growth stocks while shedding no growth yield values. We believe however this is still an opportunity to buy the stock given the secure yield and the fact that the group is currently winning, slowly but surely, market share on the TV side.
The key point to highlight is that Proximus is currently winning market share (likely 34.5% at end 2018 vs 32% at end 2016) on the TV side vs Telenet. Even if Proximus does not offer genuine growth prospects and will have to face Telenet’s offensive in the quadruple play, its restructuring enables it to be more competitive and well positioned to maintain its leadership in 4G and to win market shares on TV… and also to offer a strong dividend.
Q1 revenues were flat yoy. And that is indeed slightly better than in the previous quarter (-0.9% in Q4). Domestic revenues were up by 0.9% yoy thanks to the Fixed data and TV services and despite the impact of the “Roam like at home” regulation, while revenue from BICS (the International Carrier division combined with that of the African telco MTN) were down by 3.9% yoy (it had decreased by 6.6% in Q4), but they included the consolidation of TeleSign for one month more. As in previous quarter
The group released last Friday (2 March) its Q4 results. Q4 revenues were down by 0.9% yoy, a slighter less decline compared to the -3.2% yoy recorded in both Q3 and Q2. Domestic revenues were indeed up by 0.9% despite the impact of the “Roam like at home” regulation, while revenue from BICS (the International Carrier division combined with that of the African telco MTN) were down by 6.6% (vs -12% in Q3 and Q2), but they included two months’ consolidation of TeleSign (the organic decline was in
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Proximus SA. We currently have 124 research reports from 3 professional analysts.
CyanConnode exceeded FY24 revenue expectations and has high visibility into FY25, supported by strong deliveries and a growing backlog respectively.
Companies: CyanConnode Holdings plc
Zeus Capital
Artificial intelligence (AI) is a double-edged sword in cybersecurity. Whilst new AI models, architectures, and innovations are emerging to protect the security posture of organisations, attackers are also benefiting from deepfakes, sophisticated phishing, and automation of malicious codes. To ensure the impact of AI on cybersecurity to be a net-positive, we need to pit good AI against bad AI. Point solutions enhanced with machine learning: Global cybersecurity has been built with point soluti
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Hybridan
Companies: BATM Advanced Communications Ltd.
Shore Capital
FY23 revenues and EBITDA were in line with expectations. The major news was that BT plans to shed more than 40% of staff. At the end of the decade the EBITDA could reach £11bn with the massive restructuring announced and capex could return to €3.5bn per year. EBITDA less capex could be multiplied by 2.5 and therefore also the dividend. This could value BT at 385 pence at that time. We maintain our opinion at Add on the stock.
Companies: BT Group plc
A decent Q1 performance despite the expected headwinds from cost-of-living pressure and cost inflation. The group is clearly a fairly safe long-term buy and hold. BT plans to shed more than 40% of staff by the end of the decade. In parallel it is further accelerating its FTTP deployment with high capex. But at the end of this phase EBITDA-capex could be multiplied by 2.5. Speculation could also again reignite as Drahi’s empire (owning 24.5% of BT) is being shaken by corruption cases.
Calnex has released a pre-close trading update for the year to March 2024, indicating that revenue would be £16.3m, c£0.7m below our forecast, partly due to the timing of orders at the end of the period. Group trading has been impacted by the well-documented, continuing challenges in the Telecoms sector which have seen delayed project timings leading to corresponding delays in customer spending. Administrative costs are being controlled and are focussed on maintaining R&D. Calnex remains confide
Companies: Calnex Solutions Plc
Cavendish
Q4 revenues were only up by 1.3% yoy (excluding the inclusion of EE for two months). A better performance than might be thought at first sight given the 8% decline recorded by the wholesale division (due to the benefit of ladder pricing revenue recognised last year). BT’s Fixed consumer revenues, 25% of BT’s business (excluding EE and Openreach) corresponding to BT’s own retail business, were up by 8% yoy with a 20% increase in broadband and TV revenue. Openreach revenue (28% of BT’s revenue not
Q1 16 revenues declined by 2.6% yoy (excluding the contact centre business SNT Deutschland which was sold in Q1). Once again growing Consumer revenues were offset by the impact of the ongoing decline in size of the business market and lower revenues at iBasis. The EBITDA decreased by 4.5% yoy but this is due to temporarily higher IT-related costs in network and operations in the run-up to IT rationalisation. Note also an impairment charge related to iBasis for €45m. KPN intends to pay a regul
Companies: Royal KPN NV
Q4 2015 revenues declined by 5.9% yoy (adjusted with a tax settlement benefit of €44m in Q4 2014). Growing Consumer revenues were offset by the impact of the ongoing decline of the business market size and lower revenues at iBasis. The EBITDA decreased however by only 0.7% yoy in Q4 2015 (without the tax settlement benefit in Q4 2014). These results are quite disappointing compared to the previous Q3 where revenues were down by only 2.6% yoy (vs -3.5% in H1) thanks to 3.7% growth on the co
Q3 revenues and EBITDA were up by 3% yoy. Quite a good set of results for the new telco king of England (following the completion of EE’s acquisition). BT Fixed consumer revenues (25% of BT’s business not including Openreach sales corresponding to BT’s own retail business) were up by 11% yoy with a 23% increase in broadband and TV revenue. Openreach revenue (28% of BT’s revenue not including EE) was up by 3% yoy with record net fibre broadband additions of 494k, 32% higher than last year. There
Although Q1 revenues had decreased by 2.6% yoy while the EBITDA had declined slightly more by 4.5%, it was the opposite in Q2 with revenues down more than expected by 4.3% yoy but a better EBITDA down by only 1.7%. Once again, growing Consumer revenues were offset by the impact of the ongoing decline in the size of the business market. So, as in the two previous quarters, a mixed release.
BT group has released its Q1 numbers. But note, in parallel, another key point: two days ago Ofcom announced a half-step towards a separation between BT and Openreach (BT’s division which operates the fibre network). Q1 revenues were only up by 0.4% yoy (excluding EE). Like in the previous quarter, it is a better performance than might be thought at first sight given the 6% decline recorded by the wholesale division (due to the benefit of ladder pricing revenue recognised last year). BT’s Fixed
Quite a good Q3 for KPN: even if revenues, down by 3% yoy, are still suffering from the decline in the business market size (consumer revenues grew by 1.5% yoy), the EBITDA was good (growing by 3.4% yoy as it was down by 4.5% in Q1 and by 1.7% in Q2) driven by customer base growth and the positive impact of cost savings.
Q2 revenues were up by 1.1% yoy excluding EE (vs +0.4% in Q1). Like in the previous quarter, this is a better performance than might be thought at first sight given the 5% decline recorded by the wholesale division (due to Partial Private Circuits customers continuing to migrate to newer Internet Protocol-based technologies). BT’s Fixed consumer revenues, 20% of BT’s business corresponding to BT’s own retail business, were up by 11% yoy with a 17% increase in broadband and TV revenue. Openreach’
BT previously announced on 27 October 2016 that an initial internal investigation of accounting practices in its Italian business had identified certain historical accounting errors and areas of management judgement requiring reassessment. At that time, they announced the write-down of items on the balance sheet by £145m, being the then best estimate of the financial impact of these issues. Since then, BT has progressed with the investigation, which has included an independent review by KPMG of
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