Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.: Launch of Farmesa & Other Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (02/23)

Chipotle Mexican Grill delivered a highly disappointing result for the last quarter. The company failed to meet the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street despite AUVs expansion and improved restaurant-level margin. Chipotle is investing in technological advancement to improve its customers' experience. The management faced several challenges this quarter, including one of the highest inflationary periods and an uncertain macro environment. The overall growth re

Chipotle Mexican Grill: Major Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (10/22)

Chipotle Mexican Grill delivered a mixed set of results. The company’s revenues were below the analyst consensus but the company did deliver an earnings surprise to Wall Street. The resiliency of the Chipotle brand has helped the company survive in a difficult consumer environment alongside the inflationary headwinds. In the quarter, Chipotle continues to view broadening trends by the income levels with the consumers with lower income reducing frequency. The value proposition is quite strong, an

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.: Expansion of the Loyalty Program & Other Developments, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (08/22)

Chipotle Mexican Grill has been in the news for an amazing rebound in its stock price after delivering a robust set of results surpassing Wall Street expectations in terms of earnings. The company showed a positive momentum in its business in the last quarter in spite of the challenges of Covid-19 and ongoing inflation as well. The in-restaurant sales increased while digital sales were also up and the management added 51 new restaurants in 42 locations. In terms of inflationary impact, there was

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.: Financial & Price Forecasts, DCF Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (05/22)

Chipotle had a solid start to 2022 with a 16% jump in the top-line and a 26% jump in the earnings per share, continuing the strong momentum from 2021. The management is gaining confidence in its conversion and relocation strategy, which will allow the company to improve the Chipotlane experience and provide more access and convenience for its guests. Of the 51 new stores opened during the first quarter of 2022, 42 were built with a Chipotlane, the company's renowned drive-through option. As a re

Chipotle Mexican Grill: Financial & Price Forecasts, DCF Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (03/22)

Chipotle had a fairly decent 2021 despite facing its fair share of challenges associated with the Omicron variant. The recent correction in the company’s stock on account of the rising interest rates and geopolitical tensions appears to be temporary given the Chipotle brand's strength and resilience. The management is continuing with the strategy of expanding its outlets and are significantly increasing the number of Chipotle restaurants in North America. They also successfully used creative soc

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. - Investment Thesis, Key Drivers, Financial & Price Forecasts, DCF Valuation 2/22

Chipotle's previous quarterly results showed strong momentum in their business, driven by a multi-pronged growth strategy and a dedicated crew that is excited to see more guests return to their restaurants. While the effects of the Omicron variant are likely to last for a few more quarters, the management is optimistic that the worst is behind them and society will soon revert to a more normal state. The company had seen a 15.1% increase in comparable restaurant sales which might slow down in th

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. - Investment Thesis, Key Drivers, Financial & Price Forecasts, DCF Valuation 10/21

Chipotle Mexican Grill is one of the many good recovery stories in the quick-service-restaurant space. The company's robust digital infrastructure helped it fight through the tough Covid-19 situation and also helps it stand out amongst its competitors. It is worth highlighting that the largest chunk of the company's revenue today is derived from digital sales. During the pandemic, customers were forced to use Chipotle's website, mobile app, and third-party delivery services, and it so happens th

Marks & Spencer+ (MKS, House Stock, 274p) - These are not just results - these are M&S results - more upgrades!

Topps Group (TPT LN) - Interim results & updated strategy

Topps Group has announced its interim results to March period end highlighting a good relative performance against a tough backdrop as sales fell 5.8% yoy to £122.8m versus c. 10-15% for the wider market, according to management. Adj. PBT of £3.1m is down 30% yoy and covers 40% of Zeus’s FY24 forecast, implying Topps will need to see some improvement in the operating environment to meet current estimates, which Zeus keep unchanged. The big news comes from the updated ‘Mission 365’ strategy, whic

Finseta+ (FIN, House Stock at 42p) - Name change (formerly Cornerstone)

Topps Tiles - Looking to the future

Topps Tiles’ (TPT’s) H124 results demonstrate the effects of the general market softness of spend on repairs, maintenance and improvement, as evidenced by other companies and external data. Of more importance is TPT’s updated strategy, which includes targeting new markets and further/better leverage of existing brands, and ‘medium-term’ financial goals, the most notable being an indicated more than quadrupling of adjusted PBT from our FY24 estimates. Management points to more encouraging forward

Brighton Pier Group - Sweating the assets

The popularity of Brighton Pier Group’s (BPG’s) diversified low-ticket leisure offer underpins confidence in a significant bounce back from its FY23 ‘annus horribilis’ as well as in potential benefits from new initiatives, notably a £1 admission fee to the Palace Pier (annually over four million visitors as a free attraction) during key summer trading for non-residents of Brighton. The coincidence in FY23 of harsh weather, train strikes and protracted disruption from a fire near the company’s mo

SSP Group+ (SSPG, House Stock at 209p) - Interim results demonstrate significant progress; forecasts maintained

Hardman & Co Healthcare Index: 2023 – Capital demands dent performance

The Hardman & Co Healthcare Index (HHI) has been running since 2009. Its main function is to highlight the attractions of life sciences investments over the long term. For the second year running, apart from global economic influences affecting world markets, performance in 2023 was dented by the capital-intensive nature of the sector. The HHI fell 3.7%, to 483.8, underperforming the main London markets – FTSE 100 (+3.8%) and FTSE All-Share (3.8%) but outperforming the FTSE AIM All-Share Index (

PROGRESSIVE: Vertu Motors: Smoother roads ahead

The results for the year ended 29 February released today show a robust performance across a difficult year, but they also provide good grounds for optimism. Revenue of £4,720m was a 17.6% advance on FY23, helped by the successful acquisition of Helston in FY23. Underlying operating profit of £59.3m was a 21.5% improvement on the £48.8m achieved in FY23. The net debt (pre-leases) result of £(54.0)m, vs our estimate £(62.0)m and FY23 £(75.3)m, is impressive. Encouragingly the recommended dividend

Borussia Dortmund - London calling

Borussia Dortmund’s Q324 results demonstrated some phasing but it has made good progress year-to-date. The focus of attention now is the team’s progress to the Champions League final for the first time since 2013, having beaten more-favoured (by the bookmakers) and higher-funded teams along the way. Despite being less successful than usual in the Bundesliga, the club will take part in the Champions League next season as well as the revamped FIFA Club World Cup in the summer of 2025, which are al

Topps Group (TPT LN) - Initiation: Market leader trading at cyclical lows

Topps Group is the UK’s largest specialist supplier and distributor of tiles and associated products to the UK’s domestic and commercial markets. Each of the last three years the Group has successfully achieved record revenue in a market that’s seen recent volume declines and regional peers enter administration. Following the right sizing of its business, Topps Group is now well positioned to capitalise on the economic recovery and continue taking share from competitors, supported by its global

Allenby Capital TMT Update - 13.05.24 - MIRI.L, MBT.L, PPS.L, CSFS.L, LST.L, DNM.L

Please find below our weekly update covering themes that we feel that are of interest to investors and participants in the small and mid-cap TMT sector as well as commentary on recent newsflow.

LIBERUM: The Liberum Leisure Digest: NLW increase - pricing power is key

Hardman & Co Insight: Streamed content takes over

The Great Correction of 2022 saw the share prices of streamers plunge after market leader Netflix reported a slowdown/fall in subscriber growth. Having formerly been seduced by hectic subscriber growth rates, investors quickly refocused, this time on fundamental metrics such as revenue, margins, profits and cashflow. Since then, streamers have continued to take a steadily greater share of viewing while linear TV continues to decline. But growth in streaming subscribers in the US and UK is now a

Cornerstone FS+ (CSFS, House Stock at 40p) - FY23A results beat, further upgrades

ME Group - Modernising and growing the estate driving growth

During 2023, ME Group commenced the deployment of its next generation photobooths, which are integrated with the group’s newly developed proprietary software, gained market leadership in the Japanese photobooth market with an acquisition, continued to roll out laundry units with existing and new location partners, commenced a share buyback programme and gained entry into the FTSE 250. 2023 was a year of significant strategic and financial progress, with sales up 15%, EPS up 31% and net cash main