Very decent results. No hurry to buy though.

The Q3 results were very in much in line with our and the market’s expectations. As the group had announced, they show some slowdown compared to H1 at a high level but a return to more solid growth going into FY24. A share buy-back was also announced, but we rather expect the share price to be “dead money” until next year (although we still like the group and its ability to perform).

A strong showing in Q2/H1 2, but less momentum going forward

Tenaris released a very strong (albeit expected) set of results for Q2/H1 23. Margins and sales of this kind were last seen in 2006 (!). That said, the momentum is slowing down with the (expected) decrease in the US market. The group argues that a bottoming out will take place in H2. We see a potential weakness of the stock (on momentum) as an opportunity to step in for those who are ready to wait for a few months.

Q1 23: impressive, but hard to beat in the future though

Tenaris posted excellent (consensus-beating) results for Q1 23. This stemmed from still supportive prices (more or less flat on average) but most of all volumes (+16% sequentially despite the high comparison basis). Cash generation was also impressive in the quarter. The outlook calls for a degree of slowdown from this very high level (as expected) but this raises the question of momentum seen from the investors’ point of view. We will revise our forecasts a tick upwards.

Great year-end 22…and a positive outlook despite the high basis

Tenaris released a rather impressive set of results for FY22. The outlook is very supportive, with prices seen as “stabilising” at the current high level, while EMEA should grow in volume. The net cash position increased a tick despite a massive working capital build-up, comforting the group’s acquisition strategy. We will upgrade our numbers again.

Q3 22: a strong set of results

Q3 22 results were solid, mainly due to prices. The group’s EBITDA margin was above targets and reached 32%. The current energy crisis certainly supports investments in the group’s end-markets. The outlook of the group is supportive for Q4 22 and going into FY23. We will revise our forecasts upwards, at least for the current year, but most likely also going forward.

H1 22: solid results in a supportive context

The Q2 22 results were very solid. Both volumes and prices were well oriented. The outlook is supportive. Current high energy prices can only support this view. We will upgrade our numbers after this release, with a potential impact on the valuation.

A very sound set of results and an upgrade to come.

The Q1 22 results were very solid. Both volumes and prices were well oriented. The outlook is supportive. Current high energy prices can only support this view. We will upgrade our numbers and target price after this release.

A solid Q4 21 and a reasonably positive outlook

The FY21 numbers came in higher than expectations. The recovery in drilling activity and OCTG prices in North America explain this performance. The EBITDA margin is still on the rise despite higher input costs. The net result is also boosted by the contributions from Ternium and Usiminas (steel makers, not consolidated). Overall, a solid set of numbers and a reasonably positive outlook. We will revise our numbers and valuation upwards after our target price has been reached.

A solid Q3, despite anti-dumping concerns

Rather strong revenue and profit numbers for Q3 21, despite higher energy and freight costs. The cash consumption was high, mainly due to WC build-up. The DoC opened an investigation into imports from Argentina, Mexico and Russia, which could possibly weigh on Tenaris as it partly exports from South America to the US (on top of its US production). We will fine-tune our numbers and valuation. Our recommendation probably needs to turn positive again after our target price has been reached.

The H1 21 results are well on track with forecasts

H1 21 sales supported by North and South America The momentum is slowed by the Middle East and Africa, as expected The group’s margins (EBITDA) are improving and should reach 20% for the full year The cash position remains high despite a higher working capital We will fine-tune our forecasts on this decent set of results

Q1 21 OK and a positive outlook

The Q1 21 results came in broadly in line with expectations The outlook calls for a further recovery in sales and margins Higher prices should compensate for higher input costs We will fine-tune our forecasts on the back of this release

FY20 slightly better than expected, more to come for the current year

The FY20 results came in slightly above consensus Cost-cutting has done the job, waiting for the top line to gradually recover in FY21 The outlook is encouraging at the margin level and should positively impact margins going forward We will upgrade our forecasts and valuation after this release

Q3 20: rather weak but improving

Revenues in Q3 were weak as announced They still show a sequential improvement Cost-cutting is paying off, mitigating the fall in volumes and prices The trough could be behind with a reasonably optimistic outlook

A rather weak Q3 outlook

Q2 was weak as expected due to oil prices and the pandemic The outlook for Q3 is very cautious In particular, America remains a concern given the group’s geographic exposure We will revise downwards our forecasts for the current year at least

No drama, but momentum is not yet back

FY19 results were a bit lower than expected Q1 20 should be in the same vein as Q4 19, i.e. below FY20’s expected margin The integration of Ipsco (US) will provide some room for extra profits thanks to synergies FY20 should show a moderate growth in earnings We will revise our forecasts most likely with no big change in our target price

Things lining up nicely…

In last couple of weeks, besides its 2023 annual results, Aminex also provided an update on two important developments for the company.

Jersey Oil & Gas (JOG LN) - Full year 2023 results

JOG has released its results to the end of 2023, confirming a strong £10.5m cash holding number, and providing an update on progress towards FID on its Buchan development project.

i3 Energy - Q1 Results – Better than forecast

Broadly, our take away is that the Q1 results again provide confidence in the delivery of i3 Energy's assets and management team. We reiterate our 21p fair value estimate for i3 Energy. As a reminder, our fair value estimate is premised a 5x EV/2025 expected debt adjusted cash flow (“DACF”) multiple. We believe the company's solid operational results combined with rising commodity prices will further support the positive trajectory of i3 Energy.

Jersey Oil & Gas - Annual Results – We Remain Bullish

Jersey Oil & Gas provided its annual results for the year ended 31 December 2023, in which we believe the key interest relates to updates on the progress towards project sanction for the Buchan field.

Union Jack Oil (UJO LN) - Final dividend declared

Union Jack has announced a final dividend for 2023 of 0.25p/share, following the 0.30p/share interim dividend announced and paid during 2023.

Gulf Marine Services (GMS LN) - Further net debt reduction

GMS has announced an update on its net debt position, showing further reductions, as expected

I3 Energy (I3E LN) - Q1 2024 results

I3 has announced its Q1 2024 results, showing ongoing cash generation as the company prepares for its significant 2024 CAPEX programme, with new drilling activity to begin in late Q2.

Morning Note – 13 May 2024

TENNYSON Morning news – Diversified Energy – Solid Q1s; midstream efficiencies

Hunting (HTG LN) - Significant new contract win

Hunting has announced a significant new US$145m OCTG contract win in the Middle East, boosting order book to record levels and seeing guidance now expected to be towards the top of the existing range.

Caspian Sunrise - Proposed Sale of BNG Shallow Structures for $83m

Caspian Sunrise announced it has entered into an agreement to grant exclusivity to Absolute Resources LLP a Kazakh registered company in connection with the proposed conditional sale of the MJF and South Yelemes structures at the BNG Contract area for a consideration of $83 million.

TENNYSON Energy Research - i3 Energy - Out of the woods

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Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) 3.5p, Mkt Cap £64m – Major rerating catalysts due over the next 12 months

Prospex Energy Plc: FY 2023 Results

Prospex Energy (PXEN LN) is an investment company with exposure to European gas and power markets. The company has recently reported full year results with a net loss of £1.2m which broadly represents the G&A of the investment company with cash generative performance from the underlying investments; an operating gas to power plant in Spain (49.9%) and producing gas assets in Italy (37%).

TENNYSON Morning news – Afentra PLC – Azule Government approval, Punja tax boost