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Cardinal Energy (CJ-TSX); BUY, C$3.50 | Cenovus Energy (CVE-TSX); BUY, C$15.50
Companies: Cardinal Energy Ltd. (CJ:TSE)Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE:TSE)
Production of 20,407 boe/d was in line with both GMPFE and consensus estimates of 20,312 boe/d and 20,530 boe/d, respectively, as the company largely kept production flat due to the Alberta production curtailments.
Companies: Cardinal Energy Ltd.
Production of 20,365 boe/d (87% liquids) was in line with expectations as it was discussed previously in the 2018 reserve update earlier this month. (HYPERLINK to our Comment dated March 7)
Cardinal has unveiled its 2019e capital budget, one which sees the company investing $47mm to maintain volumes between 20,400- 20,800 boe/d, which remains consistent with the level mandated by the current Alberta curtailments. Management anticipates excess cash generation of $29 -$39 mm beyond capex and current dividend payouts, with which it will prioritize debt repayment, operating efficiencies and dividend sustainability ahead.
Cardinal’s Board of Directors has approved a temporary 71% reduction to its dividend to $0.01/sh (down from $0.035/sh) prior, reflective of a ~4.2% yield (as of the December 6th close).
Production of 20,949 boe/d (87% liquids) was reasonably in line with both GMPFE and consensus estimates of 21,522 boe/d and 21,280 boe/d, respectively. Funds flow of ~$27.1 mm was shy, albeit in a minor fashion, of both GMPFE and consensus expectations of ~$28.7 mm and ~$30 mm, respectively.
Cardinal announced 4Q17 results which were generally in line with expectations, as production of 20,948 boe/d and funds flow of $28.6 mm, or $0.26/sh, largely tracked GMP FE and consensus estimates. While full reserve disclosures have not been provided as of yet, FD&A and F&D performance markers of $10.76/boe and $12.67/boe were disclosed, signalling attractive additions costs focused on light oil assets. There were no further updates surrounding further asset dispositions beyond the $24 mm in
Cardinal’s 2Q16e production was 3% ahead of our forecast while CFPS also beat by 19% (or 13% higher than consensus). Management is increasing its base 2016e capital budget by $10 mm (to $35 mm) which, in combination with an expanded Bantry program after continued success, will drive 4Q16e volumes of 15,100 boe/d which improves by 3% over the prior guidance. In June the Company’s LMR was 1.69 and was subsequently increased to 1.75 in July at no cost. With a modest increase to its abandonment budg
Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly rev
Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PWT PSK VII TOU VET WCP BNE CJ CR DEE JOY KEL LTS NVA PPY PNE RRX RMP SRX SGY TET TNZ CKE GXE IKM LXE MQL PRQ SPE SKX TVE TVETF YO
With this publication we highlight forecast revisions associated with our commodity price update (Natural Gas Update; Crude Oil Update), reaffirming a view of commodity price recovery in 2017e. In the interim until then, 2016e Canadian oil price realizations are up ~11% in the synthetic and Edmonton Light streams, with heavy WCS crude up ~20% which is amplified by Canadian oilsands output curtailments. While 2016e Canadian natural gas prices are projected to be ~20% lower, we expect much of this
Companies: ARX CPG ERF TOU POU CJ PPY SRX LXE
We are updating our estimates after coming off research restriction following our participation in Cardinal’s $67 mm equity financing, wherein the Company issued
7.15 mm shares at $9.35 per share. Post-financing, Cardinal solidifies an already peer group leading balance sheet and sustainability outlook, which will enable the Company to expand opportunities in its core operating areas through opportunistic tuck-in acquisitions while continuing to advance both organic growth efforts and pursue l
Cardinal’s 1Q16 volumes of 14,245 boe/d overlaid our estimates while CFPS of $0.12 was ahead of our call of $0.10 and inline with consensus at $0.12 per share. Strong operational performance saw the Company, once again, reduce operating costs with 1Q16 figures coming in >$2.00/boe lower than those reported in 4Q15 when they acquired the Mitsue assets. The Company continues layering in hedges to protect its capital program and dividend payout, helping to solidify Cardinal as the most sustainable
Impact: Neutral to slightly positive. In a relatively quiet quarter of operations, Cardinal managed to lower its unit operating costs 9% q/q , which we view as noteworthy given the inclusion of the higher cost Mitsue asset.
With this publication we briefly summarize our projections for 1Q16e quarterly results for the Junior E&P (Intermediate, Mid & Small Cap) segments of our coverage universe
Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PSK VII TOU VET WCP BNE CJ CR DEE JOY KEL LTS LRE NVA PPY PNE RRX RMP SRX SGY TET TNZ CKE GXE IKM LXE ROAOF MQL RE SPE SKX TVE TVETF YGR YO
With this publication we highlight various metrics and statistics forthcoming from yearend reserve books for our Domestic E&P coverage universe (Integrateds, Large Cap, Oilsands, Intermediate, Mid Cap, and Small Cap). Similar charts for YE2014 reserves can be found in our Statistical Package dated April 7, 2015.
Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PWT VII TXP VET WCP BNE CJ KEL LTS LRE NVA PPY PNE RRX RMP SRX SGY TET TNZ BXO CKE GXE IKM LXE MQL SKX TVE TVETF YGR YO
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Following the announcement of test results for all three zones at Royston, where we now see a compelling oil development opportunity, we have revisited our FY21F and FY22F estimates for Touchstone and introduce numbers for FY23F. Our forecasts for the financial year just ended are not materially changed (certainly in revenue and net profit terms) – with Touchstone’s results for the nine months to September having previously indicated that it was tracking reasonably well against our estimates for
Companies: Touchstone Exploration Inc
Companies: Shanta Gold Limited
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ACP Energy plc, a company formed for the purpose of undertaking an acquisition or acquisitions of a majority interest in a company, business or asset, seeking to join the Main Market (Standard) The Company intends to focus on opportunities in the natural resources sector, raising gross proceeds of £830k. Due 28 Jan.
Artemis Resources ltd, an ASX listed mining
Companies: STAF CASP EKF SAR LTG ERGO EDR BARK
Bushveld ended 2021 on a firmer operational footing than it began the year, its focus on stabilising production levels at Vametco helping it reach the upper end of its rebased full-year group production guidance range whilst keeping costs under control. With operational stability now in place, thoughts can once more turn to growth. The commissioning of Kiln 3 at Vanchem is on track for Q2 2022 and should bring higher rates there in H2 and see Bushveld exit the year with a sustainable group produ
Companies: Bushveld Minerals Limited
Pantheon Resources announced that it has commenced drilling the Theta West #1 well, which has now drilled to a depth of 1,874 feet – target depth is circa 9,200 feet. The well is targeting i) the Upper Basin Floor Fan and ii) the Lower Basin floor fan, both of which are referred to as Theta West. Theta West has a combined best estimate success-case recoverable resource of 1.4 billion barrels of oil.
Companies: Pantheon Resources plc
Wentworth Resources plc has released a strong operational update and its 2022 production guidance, with the Company in its strongest ever position in its corporate history. In Q4/21 Wentworth achieved an all-time quarterly production record at Mnazi Bay of 91.5MMscf/d, demonstrating the continued strong demand for gas in Tanzania. FY21 average gross production was 81.6MMscf/d, above the high-end of the Company's revised guidance (70-80MMscf/d) and our own estimate (80MMscf/d). Gross production g
Companies: Wentworth Resources PLC
Phoenix copper today announces the results of its geophysical surveys over the Navarre Creek licence in Idaho. The results of the survey point to two intrusive bodies underlying glacial till and a 2.3 x 1.0 mile alteration corridor with alteration consistent with the potential for “Carlin” style epithermal gold-silver deposits. The survey took the form of a ground-based magnetic survey (to search for the presence (or not) of magnetite in the intrusive bodies and in the magnetite skarns associa
Companies: Phoenix Copper Ltd. (United Kingdom)
As part of the Stage 3 work programme, Falcon Oil & Gas has confirmed that it will embark on a fully-funded, high-impact, extensive work programme in 2022. The Company will drill, fracture stimulate and test two 2,000m+ horizontal wells, with the aim of providing line of sight to the commercialisation of the Beetaloo. The programme will focus on the Amungee Member B shale, following the successful production log test in 2021, which suggested a normalised gas flow rate of 5.2-5.8MMscf/d per 1,000
Companies: Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd.
As expected, Hargreaves has reported a very strong set of interims (earnings increasing ninefold) with good progress reported in all areas of the Group. HRMS was the standout performer and looks increasingly likely to remain a significant profit and cash generator for the Group over the medium term. This drives further, material forecast upgrades (PBT and EPS >20% in all forecast years) and triggers an uplift in our TP to 590p (from 560p). With continuing earnings momentum and a 5% dividend yiel
Companies: Hargreaves Services plc
Savannah’s FY21 trading update demonstrates continued progress at its Nigerian operations, with strong growth in gas volumes, revenues ahead of guidance, robust cost controls and net debt levels declining. This should be encouraging for investors as Savannah expands its sphere of operations and looks to deliver growth on multiple fronts – the recently announced Chad/Cameroon acquisitions are highly accretive and set to more than double the scale of the company’s operations, while additional grow
Companies: Savannah Energy Plc
Companies: Sylvania Platinum Ltd.
Companies: Atlantic Lithium Limited.
SolGold’s (“SOLG”) regional drive has started to yield tangible results from promising projects including Tandayama-America (“TAM”) and Cacharposa at Porvenir. We evaluate the potential value these projects could add even at this early stage in their development and key catalysts moving forward. TAM in our view could substantially derisk development at Alpala through early starter pit material whilst Alpala is caving, bringing forward first production and simultaneously enhancing the project’s N
Companies: SolGold Plc
Trinity has released a Q4/21 and FY21 operational update, in which it emphasises the significant portfolio of opportunities available, and progress made by the Company to meaningfully scale the business. FY21 production was at the top-end of guidance at 3,069bopd, despite no new wells being drilled during 2021 and the ongoing COVID related restrictions. The Company's strong production performance, together with strict cost controls helped maintain a low operating breakeven below US$30/bbl (at US
Companies: Trinity Exploration & Production Plc
• 4Q21 gross production was 91.5 mmcf/d, above our expectations of 85 mmcf/d.
• The FY22 gross production guidance has been set at 75-85 mmcf/d (we carry 80 mmcf/d) with contracted gas prices of US$3.44/mmbtu and net capex of US$2.3 mm. The FY22 production guidance represents an increase of 5 mmcf/d compared to the most recent FY21 guidance.
• During December, the company bought back US$2 mm of its shares (out of a programme of up to £2 mm announced in December).
• Net cash at YE21 was US$22.8