Stifel FirstEnergy Morning Research Package

Cardinal Energy (CJ-TSX); BUY, C$3.50 | Cenovus Energy (CVE-TSX); BUY, C$15.50

Deleveraging strategy continues to shine through low declines and significant FCF

Production of 20,407 boe/d was in line with both GMPFE and consensus estimates of 20,312 boe/d and 20,530 boe/d, respectively, as the company largely kept production flat due to the Alberta production curtailments.

4Q18 Production and funds flow as expected, impairment reversal positive for earnings

Production of 20,365 boe/d (87% liquids) was in line with expectations as it was discussed previously in the 2018 reserve update earlier this month. (HYPERLINK to our Comment dated March 7)

2019e guidance focused on debt repayment, opex improvements and possible dividend lift

Cardinal has unveiled its 2019e capital budget, one which sees the company investing $47mm to maintain volumes between 20,400- 20,800 boe/d, which remains consistent with the level mandated by the current Alberta curtailments. Management anticipates excess cash generation of $29 -$39 mm beyond capex and current dividend payouts, with which it will prioritize debt repayment, operating efficiencies and dividend sustainability ahead.

Temporarily reduces monthly dividend ~70%

Cardinal’s Board of Directors has approved a temporary 71% reduction to its dividend to $0.01/sh (down from $0.035/sh) prior, reflective of a ~4.2% yield (as of the December 6th close).

3Q18 results modestly behind, bumpy 4Q18e expected before turnaround in 2019e

Production of 20,949 boe/d (87% liquids) was reasonably in line with both GMPFE and consensus estimates of 21,522 boe/d and 21,280 boe/d, respectively. Funds flow of ~$27.1 mm was shy, albeit in a minor fashion, of both GMPFE and consensus expectations of ~$28.7 mm and ~$30 mm, respectively.

Announces 4Q17 results and 2017 reserve book

Cardinal announced 4Q17 results which were generally in line with expectations, as production of 20,948 boe/d and funds flow of $28.6 mm, or $0.26/sh, largely tracked GMP FE and consensus estimates. While full reserve disclosures have not been provided as of yet, FD&A and F&D performance markers of $10.76/boe and $12.67/boe were disclosed, signalling attractive additions costs focused on light oil assets. There were no further updates surrounding further asset dispositions beyond the $24 mm in

Tops Estimates in 2Q16, Guidance Increased for 2H16e

Cardinal’s 2Q16e production was 3% ahead of our forecast while CFPS also beat by 19% (or 13% higher than consensus). Management is increasing its base 2016e capital budget by $10 mm (to $35 mm) which, in combination with an expanded Bantry program after continued success, will drive 4Q16e volumes of 15,100 boe/d which improves by 3% over the prior guidance. In June the Company’s LMR was 1.69 and was subsequently increased to 1.75 in July at no cost. With a modest increase to its abandonment budg

2Q16e Quarterly Preview

Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly rev

Intermediates, Mid Caps & Small Cap Commodity Price Update

With this publication we highlight forecast revisions associated with our commodity price update (Natural Gas Update; Crude Oil Update), reaffirming a view of commodity price recovery in 2017e. In the interim until then, 2016e Canadian oil price realizations are up ~11% in the synthetic and Edmonton Light streams, with heavy WCS crude up ~20% which is amplified by Canadian oilsands output curtailments. While 2016e Canadian natural gas prices are projected to be ~20% lower, we expect much of this

Cardinal Energy Bolsters Balance Sheet with $67 mm Equity Financing

We are updating our estimates after coming off research restriction following our participation in Cardinal’s $67 mm equity financing, wherein the Company issued 7.15 mm shares at $9.35 per share. Post-financing, Cardinal solidifies an already peer group leading balance sheet and sustainability outlook, which will enable the Company to expand opportunities in its core operating areas through opportunistic tuck-in acquisitions while continuing to advance both organic growth efforts and pursue l

1Q16 Results Match Expectations

Cardinal’s 1Q16 volumes of 14,245 boe/d overlaid our estimates while CFPS of $0.12 was ahead of our call of $0.10 and inline with consensus at $0.12 per share. Strong operational performance saw the Company, once again, reduce operating costs with 1Q16 figures coming in >$2.00/boe lower than those reported in 4Q15 when they acquired the Mitsue assets. The Company continues layering in hedges to protect its capital program and dividend payout, helping to solidify Cardinal as the most sustainable

REPORTS SOLID 1Q16 RESULTS

Impact: Neutral to slightly positive. In a relatively quiet quarter of operations, Cardinal managed to lower its unit operating costs 9% q/q , which we view as noteworthy given the inclusion of the higher cost Mitsue asset.

Intermediates, Mid Caps & Small Caps

With this publication we briefly summarize our projections for 1Q16e quarterly results for the Junior E&P (Intermediate, Mid & Small Cap) segments of our coverage universe

Domestic E&P Statistical Package and FD&A Review

With this publication we highlight various metrics and statistics forthcoming from yearend reserve books for our Domestic E&P coverage universe (Integrateds, Large Cap, Oilsands, Intermediate, Mid Cap, and Small Cap). Similar charts for YE2014 reserves can be found in our Statistical Package dated April 7, 2015.

LIBERUM: Sylvania Platinum* - FY22 annual dividend is 33% higher than our estimate

Union Jack Oil# - West Newton update

West Newton update

IOG - H1 2022 Results

H1 2022 Results

SHORE CAPITAL - SAVANNAH ENERGY+ (SAVE) - BUY at 25.4p – Strong interim results; Chad-Cameroon deal completion anticipated in Q4

Impressive H1 sees record interim dividend

A typically strong operational performance at Kounrad and materially higher realised zinc prices at Sasa versus the year-ago period helped CAML overcome industry-common cost inflation pressure to post a 16% increase in EBITDA and widen its margin to an impressive 63%. This in turn has given the group confidence to declare a record interim dividend of 10p, which annualised puts CAML on a compelling yield of 9%. Despite increasing metals markets volatility and the potential for further inflationar

Union Jack Oil# - West Newton CPR assessment

West Newton CPR assessment

Union Jack Oil# - Wressle update; Egdon Resources stake

Wressle update; Egdon Resources stake

IOG - Production update

Production update

Jersey Oil and Gas* - H1 2022 results and farm out update

H1 2022 results and farm out update

Central Asia Metals: Interim Results

Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) reported record H1 results on the back of robust production and higher commodity prices. H1 2022 net revenue of US$114m was up 13% YoY, EBITDA of US$75m was up 16% YoY and the EBITDA margin increased 2pp to 63%. An FX gain of US$7m, combined with the reductions in interest payments from debt reduction and higher profits meant net income was up 72% YoY to US$53m. With capex this year weighted to H2, the company’s free cash flow metric was up 7% YoY to US$52m enabling

Cenkos: Chariot Ltd -- Enabling the Energy Transition

Chariot has announced a partnership with Total Eren to jointly develop the Nour Project, a large-scale green hydrogen project to be located in Mauritania. The consortium will benefit from the dedicated expertise of Total Eren's team, holding a wide range of experience and knowledge in solar, wind, hybrid and green hydrogen projects globally. The involvement of Total Eren adds balance sheet strength and credibility to the project, whilst strengthening the existing relationship between Total Eren

Auctus on Friday - 30/09/2022

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Challenger Energy (CEG LN): Discontinuing coverage - We are discontinuing coverage on Challenger Energy Group. Longboat Energy (LBE LN)C; Target price of £1.50 per share: 3-5 well programme in 2023. Increased resources estimate at Kveikje – There were no surprises in the 1H22 financials. The gross contingent resources estimates at Kveikje have been increased from 28-48 mmboe to 35-60 mmboe (2C-3C) based on a new CPR following post wel

LIBERUM: Emmerson* - Updated short-term risked target of 12.9p on ESIA permit receipt

Cenkos: Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd -- Origin Divests Beetaloo Interest

Falcon's Beetaloo JV partner, Origin Energy has announced its intention to exit all of its upstream exploration permits as part of a strategic decision to focus on cleaner energy and customer solutions. As part of this strategy, Origin has agreed to divest 100% of its interest in the Beetaloo Basin to a JV of Tamboran Resources and Bryan Sheffield for an upfront consideration of A$60m and a 5.5% royalty on future production from Origin's 77.5% working interest. At US$60m the upfront consideratio

Year-exit target rate in sight despite Kiln 3 challenges

H1 was a mixed half for Bushveld, the continuing strong performance of Vametco offset by unexpected challenges associated with the commissioning and subsequent ramp up of Kiln 3 at Vanchem. The latter has prompted the group to reduce full-year group production guidance (with unit cost expectations increased somewhat), though we still expect positive EBITDA for the full-year and H2 capex and debt repayment obligations look adequately covered. The year-exit production rate target of 5,000-5,400t p