Enbridge (ENB-TSX); BUY, C$63.00
Companies: Enbridge Inc.
Enbridge (ENB-TSX); BUY, C$62.00
2020 Outlook
Companies: ATU CNQ PXT SRX TOU TVE ENB PD K FM LUN TCN AIF ATA TCS ARE CCL/B SIS
Enbridge (ENB-TSX); BUY, C$62.00 | Keyera (KEY-TSX); BUY, C$37.00
Companies: Enbridge Inc. (ENB:TSE)Keyera Corp. (KEY:TSE)
Enbridge (ENB-TSX); BUY, C$62.00 | Gibson Energy (GEI-TSX); BUY, C$30.00 | PrairieSky Royalty (PSK-TSX); BUY, C$17.50
Companies: ENB GEI PSK
Impact: Neutral, as this announcement is aligned with comments made by Enbridge within the scope of the Spectra acquisition that ~$2 bn of non-core assets will be divested; however, the announcement came sooner than expected. The Company indicated that this sale will be accretive to the Fund Group's ACFFO on a per unit basis. We believe this implies that the interest savings from lowering corporate debt by $1,075 mm is greater than the ACFFO being generated by the asset base being sold. Our 2016e net debt forecast for Enbridge is $39,152 mm and this sale would notionally lower our forecast by 2.7% to ~$38,075 mm.
ENB has announced the acquisition of Spectra Energy Corp (SE-N, not covered) for a transaction value of US$48 billion (C$61 billion). At closing, this will make ENB the largest energy infrastructure company in North America. We view the deal positively and would be buyers of the stock as we believe the strategic rationale for the transaction is strong, but that it will take a number of years for integration due to the size and scope of the transaction. We estimate that EBIT from Gas Pipelines and Processing as a percent of total EBIT will go from 8% in 2016e to 41% in 2018e due to the addition of Spectra. Our 2019e ACFFO of $5.76/share remains within the Company’s unchanged target of $5.50 to $6.00 per share.
Impact: We believe this transformational transaction creates long-term value through the significantly increased natural gas business platform. Enbridge estimates that roughly half of its EBITDA will come from natural gas related activities if the transaction closes. The Company's long-term growth outlook for ACFFO is unchanged, the dividend growth profile has been increased and extended while diversifying the operational platform. We view all of the prior traits positively. Synergies and enhancements to product offerings are expected to be realized in the medium to long-term but near-term impacts from the transaction may lead to dilution in 2017e CFPS and EPS.
The revised terms agreed with Maxit Capital should provide Solgold with the financial capacity to accelerate its exploration at Cascabel significantly. The ability to investigate the priority targets, some of which show a larger surface expression than the Alpala target which has received most of the exploratory work to date, enables Solgold to plan an exploration campaign which gives a more detailed view of the full scale of the Cascabel licence area. A maiden resource for the Alpala prospect will provide investors with a quantifiable benchmark against which they can assess the value of the wider licence area.
Adjusted EBIT was $1.1 bn and in line with both FCC’s and the Street’s estimate of $1.1 bn. As expected, throughput volumes were negatively impacted in 2Q16 by the wildfires in northeastern Alberta, which significantly curtailed production from the oil sands; as a result, EBIT was $74 mm lower than it would have been without the outages, though, still up y/y due to new projects coming on line. Enbridge has deployed $1.8 bn of its capital program so far this year, including the Tupper gas plant acquisition ($0.5 bn) and the GTA Project ($0.9 bn), and expects to bring another $4 bn of projects into service in the next 12-months with projects that are all largely progressing on time and budget. We have assigned a 12-MTP of $55.00/share and maintain our Market Perform ranking.
Impact: Neutral. Adjusted EPS of $0.50/share was in line with street expectations of $0.50/share (FCC $0.44/share). Enbridge showed a y/y improvement of $40 mm for adjusted EBIT. Throughput volumes and EBIT were impacted in 2Q16 by the wildfires in northeastern Alberta, which curtailed production from the oil sands. The liquids mainline system is expected to return back to anticipated throughput levels in the third quarter. Despite the unexpected interruption of oil sands production, Enbridge anticipates FY2016 adjusted EBIT and ACFFO to remain within guidance of $4.4 bn - $4.8 bn and $3.80/sh-$4.50/sh, respectively.
On June 30, 2016, the Canadian Federal Court of Appeal ruled that the National Energy Board (NEB)/Federal Cabinet process to review Enbridge's Northern Gateway oil pipeline from Edmonton, AB to Kitimat, BC, which originally resulted in an approval in 2014, had failed the constitutional duty to consult aboriginal groups. The approval of the pipeline has been referred back to the federal cabinet for a 'prompt redetermination'.
On May 19, 2016, the National Energy Board approved Kinder Morgan’s (KMI-N, no research coverage) proposed expansion to its Trans Mountain pipeline (TMX), with 157 conditions. If built, the pipeline would provide 590,000 b/d of additional capacity between Alberta’s oil reserves and Pacific markets from California to China. We believe that Enbridge’s Line 3 Expansion (L3R) and one additional export pipeline (possibly TMX) need to begin construction in the near term to provide adequate export capacity in 2019.
Enbridge reported strong earnings in the quarter, beating both our estimate and consensus.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Enbridge Inc.. We currently have 2 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
Trinity has proven the sustainability and resilience of the Company's business model, increasing both production and cash despite significant challenges in 2020. FY20 average production volumes increased 7% on 2019 to 3,226bopd despite no new drilling activity in 2020. Cash at 31 December 2020 was US$20.2m, a 27% YoY increase – driven by strong operating cash flow, and achieved despite a 36% reduction in average oil price realisations versus 2019. Average production volumes in Q4/20 increased by 2% on Q3/20 to 3,206bopd, with Trinity offsetting natural production declines through its rigorous approach to production management. Post-period, the Trinidad and Tobago Government lifted the threshold for the imposition of SPT for small onshore producers from US$50/bbl to US$75/bbl in 2021 and 2022, providing a considerable boost to Trinity's cash generation potential. With a high number of growth initiatives underway across the energy spectrum, Trinity is well positioned to broaden its portfolio and create further value as it looks to further scale the business. We increase our price target to 34p (from 32p), almost 3x the current share price and reiterate our BUY recommendation.
Companies: Trinity Exploration & Production Plc
Shanta Gold (AIM: SHG), the East Africa-focused gold producer has, this morning, released a production and operational update for Q4 2020 and, last week, a group-wide reserves and resources update. Overall, it was a robust quarter leading to FY20 gold production of 82,978 oz bang in line with 2020 production guidance (80-85koz, Tamesis est. 83.3koz) – the third year in a row they have hit unchanged guidance which is especially impressive in the face of the pandemic. They have also increased net reserves. It was another very busy quarter for the company at the corporate level too with a successful equity raise to fund drilling and technical studies at the exciting West Kenya Project.
Companies: Shanta Gold Limited
Gas composition data from the Kyalla 117 well has confirmed the presence of liquids-rich gas within the Lower Kyalla Shale, with less than 1% CO2. Analysis of the Kyalla 117 well has shown that the gas stream contains c65% methane gas, with c33% being other liquid gases such as ethane and butane. The analysis also supports the view that the Kyalla gas stream will have elevated LPG and condensate yields. Operations are scheduled to recommence at Kyalla 117 at the beginning of the dry season in Q2/21 and will initially focus on flowing back sufficient hydraulic fracture stimulation water to allow the Kyalla 117 well to flow continually without assistance.
Companies: Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd.
Buchan field resource upgrade
Companies: Jersey Oil & Gas PLC
Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target Price: NOK23.00: BW Energy (BWE NO) provides update in Gabon – BW indicated that 4Q20 gross production from the Tortue field was ~13,500 bbl/d, as an 11 day downtime took place in October for the annual maintenance program and to comply with Gabonese production allocations to meet OPEC quotas. A drilling contract for one development well (DTM-7H) and one exploration well has been recently awarded. There is also the option for another exploration well subject to the results of the drilling campaign. Pharos Energy (PHAR LN)C; Target Price: £0.40: Raising US$11.7 mm of new equity – Pharos has raised US$11.7 mm of new equity price at 19.25 p per share. The proceeds will be invested in Egypt to arrest production decline and boost production ahead of securing a farm in partner. IN OTHER NEWS ________________________________________ AMERICAS ExxonMobil (XOM US): Dry hole in Guyana – The Hassa wildcat on the Stabroek block was dry. Gran Tierra Energy (GTE LN/CN): Transaction to divest shares in PetroTal terminated – Gran Tierra, has terminated the purchase agreement with Remus Horizons regarding the proposed sale of 218,012,500 common shares in the capital of PetroTal. In a separate announcement Gran Tierra reported that 109 mm shares with private purchasers for US$14.8 mm Kosmos Energy (KOS US/LN): Discovery in the US Gulf of Mexico – The Winterfell well on the Green Canyon Block 944 encountered ~26 meters of net oil pay in two intervals in the sub-salt Upper Miocene. The well de-risks prospectivity in several neighbouring blocks held by Kosmos, with approximately 100 mmbbl of gross potential within Kosmos' acreage position. Pantheon Resources (PANR LN): Acquisition of acreage in Alaska - Pantheon Resources is acquiring 10.8% WI in each of the 16 leases in the 44,463 acre Talitha Unit from Otto Energy. The consideration consists of 14,272,592 shares of Pantheon. Upon completion of the acquisition, Pantheon will own a 100% WI in the Talitha Unit. Predator Oil & Gas (PRD LN): Operation update in Trinidad – The Pilot CO2 EOR results support pre-injection desktop production plateau forecasts of 243 -547 bbl/d from the Herrera #2 Sand. The CO2 sequestration potential is confirmed. At WTI oil price of US$50/bbl, projected EBITDA net-backs for the P50 and P10 pre-Pilot CO2 EOR production profiles at plateau production are estimated to be in the range US$15 – 25/bbl. Trinity Exploration & Production (TRIN LN): Operating update in Trinidad – 4Q20 production was 3,206 bbl/d. Trinity held net cash of US$17.5 mm at YE20. Westmount Energy (WTE LN): Acquiring further interest in Guyana explorer – Westmount has purchased 287,500 common shares in JHI for an aggregate cost of C$718,750. Westmount holds a total of 5,651,270 shares in JHI, representing ~7.7% of the issued common shares in JHI. Drilling operations at the first well in the Canje drilling campaign, Bulletwood-1, are ongoing, with completion of the well anticipated around mid to late February. Additional Canje drilling will follow-on in 1H21. EUROPE Aker BP (AKERBP NO): Trading update in Norway – Aker BP produced 223.1 mboe/d in 4Q20. FY20 capex was US$1.3 bn, exploration spend was US$246 mm and abandonment spend was US$178 mm. YE20 net debt was US$3.6 bn. Cairn Energy (CNE LN): Trading update – FY20 net production at Catcher and Kraken was just over 21,000 bbl/d, in line with guidance. FY20 cash capex was US$160 mm. FY21 net production is estimated to be 16,000 – 19,000 bbl/d with capex of US$85 mm (including US$10 mm at Kraken and Catcher). At YE20 Cairn held US$570 mm in cash with no drawn debt. In 2021, Cairn is planning to drill an exploration well on Block 10 in Mexico and there is an optional drilling opportunity for an appraisal well of the Saasken discovery (Cairn 15% WI). In the UK, Cairn will participate in the Shell-operated Jaws exploration well on P2380 (Cairn 50% WI). In Côte d’Ivoire, Cairn has assumed Operatorship (90% WI) in blocks CI-301 and CI-302 from Tullow which has exited both licences. The JV has exited blocks CI-518, CI-519, CI-521 and CI-522 effective end December 2020. ExxonMobil (XOM US): Progress at selling UK assets – Media reports indicated that ExxonMobil has entered exclusive discussions with HitecVision/NEO Energy with regards to the divestment of Central and Norther North Sea assets. Repsol (REP SM): Trading update – 4Q20 production was 628 mboe/d. Norway: Exploration licence award – Norway has awarded 61 licences to 30 companies. Equinor, Aker BP, Lundin Energy, DNO, Neptune Energy, Wintershall DEA, OKEA Energy, Var Energy and Spirit Energy were awarded interests in respectively 17, 10, 19, 10, 6, 16, 4, 10 and 3 licences. Serica Energy (SQZ LN): Operating update in the UK North Sea – Estimated FY20 net production from Serica's interests in Bruce, Keith, Rhum (BKR) and Erskine averaged 23,800 boe/d. With regards to the R3 operations, the removal of the 2005 completion is taking longer than anticipated due largely to the unexpectedly poor condition of the equipment being recovered from the well. As a result, R3 operations are now expected to continue into March 2021. Union Jack Oil (UJO LN): Further acquisition of interests in UK asset – Union Jack Union is acquiring a 15% interest in PEDL253, containing the Biscathorpe project from Humber Oil & Gas, increasing its interest to 45%. The consideration consists of £0.5 mm in cash plus a contingent payment of £0.5 mm. FORMER SOVIET UNION JKX Oil & Gas (JKX LN): Operating update in Ukraine and Russia – FY20 production was 10,238 boe/d including 5,389 boe/d in Russia and the balance in Ukraine. JKX held US$24.5 mm in cash at YE20. IG146 was completed to the Devonian in Ignativske (Ukraine) and encountered 2.6 m of net hydrocarbon bearing thickness. After initially testing of the IG146 well at an oil rate of 497 bbl/dd and a gas rate of ~200 boe/d in November the rate declined and the well is currently producing 35 boe/d. MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Apex International Energy: Discoveries in Egypt – The SEMZ-1X well discovered Bahariya oil with 17 feet of indicated pay and and tested at a rate of 100 bbl/d. The well will be fracced to maximize flow rate. The SEMZ-11X well encountered 65 feet of oil pay in the Cretaceous sandstones of the Bahariya and Abu Roash G formations. Testing of the Bahariya resulted in a peak rate of 2,100 bbl/d of oil and no water. DNO (DNO NO): Operating update – FY20 WI production was 95,100 boe/d including 17,300 boe/d in Norwar and the balance in Kurdistan. FY20 capex was US$515 mm increasing to US$700 mm in 2021. DNO held US$475 mm in cash at YE20. The KRG has put a plan in place to make payments towards DNO’s arrears (US$259 mm) such that if Brent prices exceed US$50/bbl in any month, the incremental revenue will be shared 50 50 between the KRG and the Tawke license partners. Energean (ENOG LN): Trading update – FY20 pro forma WI production was ~48.3 mboe/d with pro forma capital expenditure (including exploration expenditure) of US$558 mm. FY21 production is expected to be 35.0 40.0 mboe/d with capex of US$515 – 590 mm, Genel Energy (GENL LN): Operating update in Kurdistan – Gross operated production from the Tawke licence averaged 110,300 bbl/d in 2020, about evenly split between the Tawke and Peshkabir fields. FY20 production at Taq Taq was 9,670 bbl/d with a production rate of 8 mbbl/d at YE20. Sarta produced 520 bbl/d. The Sarta-3 well has produced at an average of ~5,500 bbl/d so far in 2021. Production from Sarta-2 is now expected in February. The 2021 appraisal drilling campaign is targeting a material portion of the 250 mmbbl of existing contingent resources, and prospective resources, in Jurassic formations. The Qara Dagh 2 well is expected to be spudded in 1Q21. FY21 WI Production is expected to be slightly above FY20 (31,980 bbl/d) with capex of US$150-200 mm. Genel held US$354 mm in cash (net cash of US$10 mm) at YE20. The KRG has submitted a reconciliation model for repayment of the receivable relating to the US$159 mm in unpaid invoices, whereby for each cent above a monthly dated Brent average of US$50/bbl, 0.5 cent per working interest barrel shall be paid towards monies owed. TransGlobe Energy (TGL LN): Operating update – Production averaged 12.4 mboe/d (including 11,178 boe/d in Egypt) in 4Q20 and 13.5 mboe/d during FY20. At YE20, TransGlobe held >US$30 mm in cash and had no net debt. SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA BW Energy (BWE NO): Equity raise – BWE has raised US$75 mm of new equity priced at NOK27 per share, representing a 9.5% discount to the previous day close. The net proceeds will be used for capital investments in the Dussafu licence in Gabon, development of the Maromba discovery in Brazil, new ventures and for other general corporate purposes. Total (FP FP) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA/B LN): Divestments in Nigeria – Oil Mining Lease (OML) 17 in the Eastern Niger Delta, and associated infrastructure, have been sold to TNOG Oil and Gas for a consideration of US$533 mm net to Shell (30% WI) and US$180 mm net to Total (10%). EVENTS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK ________________________________________ 27/01/2021: Tullow Oil (TLW LN) – Trading update 28/01/2021: Lundin Energy (LUNE SS) – 4Q20 results
Companies: AKERBP CNE DNO ENOG XOM GENL GTE JKX KOS PEN TAL PHAR REP RDSA SQZ FP TGL
Foresight Group , the award-winning infrastructure and private equity investment manager to IPO on the Main Market (premium). The Offer will primarily comprise a sale of shares by existing shareholders (c.80% of the Offer) with a smaller offering of new shares (c.20% of the Offer) to be issued by the Company. Details TBA. Cornish Metals (TSX-V: CUSN) intends to list on AIM. The Company is proposing to raise £5 million by way of private placement of new Common Shares (the "Fundraising") to advance the United Downs copper-tin project. The Company expects that Admission will become effective in February 2021. The Company's Common Shares will continue to be listed and trade on the TSX-V in Canada. VH Global Sustainable Energy Opportunities plc, a closed-ended investment Company focused on making sustainable energy infrastructure investments, today announces intends to launch an initial public offering of shares on the Official List (Premium) of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Due by Early Feb.
Companies: TYM W7L BEG CRPR EUZ IRR CMCL FARN KETL AUG
Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) – STRONG BUY – Update on Restored Contract Areas Chaarat Gold* (CGH LN) – Kapan production beats guidance and delivers $19m EBITDA Sunstone Metals (STM AU) – Drilling results from the Espiritu gold-silver prospect in Ecuador Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) – Sale of data on Finnish project Versarien* (VRS LN) – Interim results W Resources (WRES LN) – La Parilla Q4 production
Companies: AAZ CGH WRES TYM VRS STM
Companies: AAZ AAU CNR GLEN RIO TSG CCZ IRR
Jersey Oil & Gas has announced a significant increase to the best estimate contingent resource estimate of the Buchan oil field to 126 mmb of oil, from 81 mmb of oil. The increase reflects an improved understanding of the subsurface and is premised on dynamic reservoir modelling completed by Schlumberger (in conjunction with teams from Rockflow Resources and Jersey Oil & Gas). As a result of the change, the recoverable oil estimate from the Greater Buchan Area, inclusive of core satellite fields, amounts to 162 mmb. We are increasing our fair value estimate to 479p/sh from 378p/sh as a result. The increase in our fair value estimate represents a preliminary change and we expect our valuation to increase further as we gain a better understanding of the development concept for the Greater Buchan Area. As a reminder, Jersey Oil & Gas anticipates completing the concept select report of the Greater Buchan Area in Q1 2021 after which it intends to seek a farm-in partner to fund the project. All in, we believe Jersey has now entered a very exciting catalyst rich period of progress and we expect the stock will materially rerate over the course of 2021.
Jubilee put out an intraday press release yesterday updating on the performance in the first half (ending Dec 2020) of the FY 2021. Once again Jubilee delivers; significantly increased revenues and profits from its chrome and PGM division in South Africa and a small, but important, contribution from Zambia. Notably this improvement isn't just from commodity price performance; rather increased production, productivity, throughput, renegotiated contracts and all set alongside the strong performance of commodity prices –rhodium, palladium and platinum. We see this as still only the start for Jubilee as we look forward to the first copper oxide concentrates from the Roan project in Zambia to the Sable Refinery – where the Roan plant is currently under construction. Once again we are struck by the speed at which Jubilee moves to advance its projects and, with its South African cash engine showing no signs of slowing down. Jubilee can choose to move its wider ambitions in Zambia forward from internally generated cash flow. On the back of the strong performance we put our forecasts under review.
Companies: Jubilee Metals Group PLC
Botswana Diamonds (BOD LN) – Raising £363,000 Eurasia Mining* (EUA LN) – West Kytlim Definitive Feasibility Study approved Power Metal Resources* (POW LN) – Three highly prospective gold projects acquired in Canada Serabi Gold* (SRB LN) – Initial drilling results from Sao Domingo Vast Resources* (VAST LN) – Baita Plai General Manager appointment
Companies: BOD EUA POW SRB VAST
Pantheon announced that it is acquiring the 10.8% of the Talitha Unit it does not already own, bringing its interest to 100% in the unit. The vendor, Otto Energy Alaska, will be provided with 14,272,592 shares in Pantheon Resources as consideration. The company continues to drill ahead with the Talitha#A well. The transaction is value accretive for Pantheon and we increase our fair value estimate to 89p from 83p. As a reminder, our fair value estimate includes 25% of our successcase valuations in respect of two of the four targets that the Talitha#A well is intended to evaluate, namely, the Talitha Brookian Shelf Margin Deltaic and the Talitha Kuparuk
Companies: Pantheon Resources plc
Today's news & views, plus announcements from RIO, EXPN, BLND, GLEN, PFD, HMSO, WG, WJG, HOTC, KAPE, QTX, BOOM
Companies: Rio Tinto plc
Antofagasta (ANTO LN) – Q4 production highlights strong quarter BHP (BHP LN) – Record iron ore production, workforce reductions in Chile for Covid and continuing focus on copper exploration IronRidge Resources* (IRR LN) – Call notice for exercise of warrants Shanta Gold (SHG LN) – Reserves/Resources update replaces mined ounces SolGold* (SOLG LN) – Nick Mather steps aside to allow search for new CEO to lead Alpala block-cave financing and development
Companies: ANTO BHP SHG SOLG IRR
Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) has reported Q4 2020 production with 3,365t of copper taking full year output to 13,855 in line with our forecast of 13.9kt and at the top end of guidance. Q4 lead output was 7,442t meaning 29,741t over the full year, up 2% YoY and in line with our forecast of 30kt while zinc output of 5,848t took full year output to 23,815t again in line with our forecast of 24kt and up 2% YoY despite the disruption at Sasa which CAML has overcome rapidly as we expected.
Companies: Central Asia Metals Plc
