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Impact: Positive. Regulatory approval under the Investment Canada Act removes a significant hurdle for the deal and should serve to bridge part of the gap between the current market price and the cash bid price of $0.52 per share implied under the deal.
Companies: Long Run Exploration
Impact - we view the quarter as a non-event in light of the pending sale of the Company to Calgary Sinoenergy Investment Corp.
With this publication we briefly summarize our projections for 1Q16e quarterly results for the Junior E&P (Intermediate, Mid & Small Cap) segments of our coverage universe
Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PSK TOU VET WCP BNE CJ CR DEE JOY KEL LTS LRE NVA PPY PNE RRX RMP SGY TET TNZ CKE GXE IKM ROAOF MQL RE SPE SKX TVE TVETF YGR YO
Impact: Neutral. Sinoenergy has extended the outside date to accommodate the extension to the Investment Canada Act review period by Industry Canada.
With this publication we highlight various metrics and statistics forthcoming from yearend reserve books for our Domestic E&P coverage universe (Integrateds, Large Cap, Oilsands, Intermediate, Mid Cap, and Small Cap). Similar charts for YE2014 reserves can be found in our Statistical Package dated April 7, 2015.
Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PWT TXP VET WCP BNE CJ KEL LTS LRE NVA PPY PNE RRX RMP SGY TET TNZ BXO CKE GXE IKM MQL SKX TVE TVETF YGR YO
We view Long Run’s year-end results largely as a non-event in the context of the previously announced sale of the Company to Calgary Sinoenergy Investment Corp. Fourth quarter results saw production that was largely in line with our thinking, while cash flow was ahead primarily on lower royalties and production costs. Year-end reserves were down in all categories, reflecting lower commodity prices and a muted capital program in 2015. In light of the pending sale of the Company, Management has no
Impact - we view the Company's year-end results largely as a non-event in the context of the previously announced sale of the Company
With this publication we highlight forecast revisions associated with our crude oil commodity price update. Concurrent within a dynamic time for E&Ps, some of which have already begun the process of 2016 capital budget downdrafts, revised estimates attempt to directionally capture a shift towards capital conservation, though severely weakened futures curves have influenced our thinking for the better part of 6 months anyway. We expect further capital investment reductions forthcoming from E&Ps i
Companies: AAV ARX BNP CPG ERF POU PEY SPE SGY TVE TOU VET GXE KEL NVA PPY BTE PGF PSK PWT WCP BNE CJ CR DEE JOY LTS LRE PNE RRX RMP TET TNZ BXO CKE IKM ROAOF MQL RE SKX TVETF YGR YO
Impact - neutral. Long Run announced it has entered into an amending agreement with its bank syndicate that will see the borrowing base reduced to $620 mm from $650 mm previously, comprised of a $240 mm revolving facility, a $30 mm operating facility, and a $350 mm non-revolving facility. The Company is currently drawn ~$580 mm on the facilities. The financial covenants have been removed on the facilities and the interest and fees have been reduced with the facilities terminating six months foll
Impact - neutral
Long Run has announced an extension to its interim forbearance and amending agreement to its credit facility with its lending syndicate extending the relief period from January 22, 2016 to January 29, 2016, with Management anticipating the amendments will be executed by the end of the forbearance period. Management noted this does not impact the previously announced plan of arrangement to sell the Company which is still expected to close in April 2016.
Long Run has entered into an agreement with a group of investors based in China to be acquired for a total purchase price of $770 mm. The purchase price includes $0.52 per share for the Company’s ~193 mm outstanding common shares, redemption of the Company’s $75 mm face value convertible debentures at $750 per $1,000 of principal amount, and the assumption of Long Run’s bank debt, which stood at ~$600 mm exiting 3Q15.
Impact: Positive, given the deal represents a 215% premium to Long Run's December 18, 2015 closing price. Long Run has entered into an agreement with a group of investors based in China to be acquired for a total purchase price of $770 mm. The price includes $0.52 per share for the Company's ~193 mm outstanding common shares, redemption of the Company's $75 mm face value convertible debentures at $750 per $1,000 principal amount, and assumption of Long Run's bank debt, which stood at ~$600 mm ex
“Worse? How could they get any worse? Take a look around you, Ellen. We’re at the threshold of hell”. These are the words spoken by Clark Gris-wold in the holiday classic “Christmas Vacation”, and seem aptly suited for the general sentiment in the Canadian energy space at the moment as we roll out a summary of our regular forecast revisions extending from our most recent crude oil and natural gas price forecast update.
Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP ERF POU PEY PGF PSK PWT TOU VET WCP BNE CJ CR DEE JOY KEL LTS LRE NVA PPY PNE RRX RMP SRX SGY TET TNZ BXO CKE GXE IKM ROAOF MQL RE SPE SKX TVE TVETF YGR YO CPG
Impact: Negative. The revised facility of $650 mm now includes a $350 mm non-revolving facility, which reflects an additional $105 mm that will have to be repaid in the near term, adding to the Company's already significant debt repayment obligations.
Impact: Neutral. While a necessary step in the deal process, we await full approval of the $100 mm private placement.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Long Run Exploration.
We currently have 30 research reports from 1
Companies: Savannah Energy Plc
Forecast and valuation update
Companies: IOG PLC
With several opportunistic but timely acquisitions in 2021, coupled with the recent surge in the oil price, Zenith Energy has, in our view, completely transformed itself and its value proposition to investors. While for various reasons it has not been easy for the market to fully recognise and reward this transformation, we expect 1) doubling production, 2) further strengthening of its balance sheet and 3) becoming Free Cash Flow (FCF) generative this year, will make it difficult for the market
Companies: Zenith Energy Ltd.
Alternative Resource Capital
We are increasing our fair value estimate for Pantheon Resources to 208p, from under review (previously 184p). The change reflects what we believe was an unambiguously positive winter drilling campaign. This full note details the background analysis to the change in estimate of fair value, which includes a valuation table and an assessment of the forthcoming Alkaid#2 well.
Companies: Pantheon Resources plc
Chariot has signed a front-end engineering and design (FEED) agreement with Schlumberger and Subsea 7 (the Subsea Integration Alliance) for the Anchois gas development project. Chariot and the Subsea Integration Alliance will adopt a “one team” integrated and collaborative approach to fast-track first gas from Anchois to maximise the return on investment for all stakeholders. The scope of work covers all the development's offshore elements including well completions and subsea production systems
Companies: Chariot Limited
AfriTin Mining (“ATM”) has announced another record-breaking quarter from Uis Phase 1. Tin production increased 13% QoQ to 152t for the three months to May (Q1 FY’23), supported by record recoveries, which along with cost initiatives drove a 16% improvement in All-In Sustaining Costs. The strong performance continues to support growth projects including incorporation of petalite lithium and tantalum by-products, upon which AfriTin recently announced positive drilling and metallurgical test work
Companies: AfriTin Mining Ltd.
Hannam & Partners
RCS-1 flow testing results
Companies: Arrow Exploration Corp.
EQTEC has reached a key milestone in its Southport energy from waste project with the appointment of Anaergia as EPC and O&M partner. This is a complex project using multiple waste treatment solutions and we see EQTEC’s inclusion as a demonstration that it’s technology can combine with these to create an optimal outcome.
Companies: EQTEC PLC
Trinity has announced the commencement of its highly anticipated onshore drilling campaign. The Company's fully funded, six well drilling programme will target an aggregate 450-1,100mmbbls of reserves at a cost of US$14-17m. In addition to drilling four “conventional” low angle wells, Trinity will also drill one horizontal well and one deeper appraisal well, with both the horizontal and deeper appraisal wells having the potential to deliver substantially higher production and economic returns ve
Companies: Trinity Exploration & Production Plc
Wentworth has announced a positive operational update ahead of its AGM to be held later today. Daily production year-to-date (YTD) has averaged 92.2MMscf/d, a c15% YoY increase (2021: 79.9MMscf/d) and ahead of Wentworth's 2022 guidance of 75-85MMscf/d. As noted previously, the strong performance of the Mnazi Bay asset YTD has allowed Wentworth to increase its total dividend distribution in respect of 2021 to 1.7p per share, a yield of c7.1%. Mnazi Bay continues to supply Tanzania with half of th
Companies: Wentworth Resources PLC
• Section II of the Northern Peruvian Pipeline has been temporary re-opened.
• As a result, 0.72 mmbbl of PetroTal’s Bretana oil has been tendered at the Bayovar port by Petroperu for the July lifting. This oil previously entered the pipeline in late 2020 for which PetroTal was paid just ~US$45/bbl at the time.
• PetroTal will receive the difference between this price and the price at which Petroperu will sell the oil in July (~US$120/bbl), generating over US$60 mm of price adjustment true-up r
Companies: PetroTal Corp.
Wentworth has announced the acquisition of a 25% non-operated working interest in the Ruvuma PSA from Scirocco Energy for an initial consideration of US$3m plus contingent payments of up to US$13m. The consideration is structured to ensure that the majority is only paid in a success case, providing Wentworth with a low-cost entry point into a high growth opportunity. The transaction has the potential to nearly double the Company's production by 2026 and add over 190Bcf of 2P reserves on a Final
• 2022 YTD gross production was 92 mmcf/d, ahead of our expectations of 89 mmcf/d for 1H22.
• The FY22 production guidance remains unchanged at 75-85 mmcf/d. It looks very conservative in our view.
• The company currently holds US$26 mm in cash and no debt. This is in line with our expectations.
• TPDC continues to be current with regards to receivables.
• We re-iterate our target price of £0.45 per share.
Steady growth and dividend
Our Core NAV for the company based on its 2P reserves only i