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Painted Pony announced that it has entered into an agreement to sell a 75% working interest in 11,280 gross acres (8,460 net), within the company’s NE BC Montney portfolio, for $45 mm in cash. Management has intimated that this transaction has no associated production or PDP reserve value, and thus the company has opted to make no changes to its formal 2019 guidance at this time. Playing its cards close to its chest, the company did not unveil any details as to which block of land this
Companies: PAINTED PONY PETROLEUM
Painted Pony reported 2Q19 results that were well behind consensus expectations on both a production and AFFO basis. Volumes of 48,978 boe/d trailed “street” estimates by 4% while AFFO of $9.1 mm, or $0.06/sh, lagged consensus at $13.3 mm, or $0.08/sh. With more shut-ins and commodity price volatility ahead, Painted Pony is reducing its 2019 guidance to 49,000-51,000 boe/d on spending of $80-$95 mm. For scale, prior guidance was 54,000-56,000 boe/d on capex of $95-$110 mm. July volumes were 52,3
Painted Pony’s 1Q18 production of 60,703 boe/d matched our forecast, while cash flow of $46.4 mm, or $0.29 per share, was slightly higher than GMP FE and consensus estimates. In keeping with the recent theme of spending within cash flow, the company has reduced its 2018e capital program from $185 mm and 61,000-63,000 boe/d, to $145-$165 mm and 58,000-60,000 boe/d. The midpoint of the revised guidance range would imply a 16% decrease in capital, though volumes only roll back by 5%. The company’
Painted Pony’s first well drilled into its 36-section Montney block at Beg was tested for 6.6 days and finished with a 24-hour flow rate of 1,900 boe/d, including 9.5 mmcf/d of natural gas and an estimated 340 bbl/d liquids (60% condensate). Given this result, combined with offsetting competitor activity, management believes this entire block is prospective for Montney development. Future plans for this area remain under consideration, but could include: 1) further development which would requ
In line with many within its peer group, Painted Pony has announced a 2018 capital program bound within cash flow. The 2018e program, which currently contemplates spending $185 mm to drill and complete 29.0 and 31.0 net wells, respectively, is expected to generate volumes of 61,000 – 63,000 boe/d. Captured within the substantial production growth noted above, is an increased liquids weighting. The company forecasts a 47% YoY increase in liquids production, 50% of which will be high yield conde
Impact: Slightly positive. While there will be no changes to our formal estimates as a result of this update, the underlying risk of the Company growing from 16,600 boe/d in 2Q16 to 40,000 boe/d by the end of the year is significantly reduced with confirmation of corporate volumes at 30,000 boe/d over the past 5 days.
Painted Pony reported 2Q16 production and cash flow that overlaid our estimates. As expected, the Company has formally increased its 2016 capital spending guidance to $199 mm from $179 mm previously, as a result of early commissioning of the AltaGas Townsend facility, which will naturally necessitate more wells to achieve the unchanged 40,000 boe/d 2016e exit marker. Current volumes through the Townsend facility are tracking the new ramp-up schedule while total corporate volume guidance of 23,00
Impact: Positive, while cash flow and production were in line for the quarter, it appears current production is putting the Company on track to beat our prior 3Q16e forecast.
Painted Pony announced that it has entered into an asset exchange agreement with a large industry partner consistent with Progress-Petronas. The exchange encompasses a mutual 15.4 net sections (9,856 net acres), primarily at Daiber, wells and a working interest in a facility owned and operated by Progress-Petronas. The deal will net Painted Pony an additional 5.4 mmcfe/d which will have to be tied-in to the Company’s infrastructure and will, most importantly, bestow 100% WI in the land and wells
Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly rev
Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PWT PSK VII TOU VET WCP BNE CJ CR DEE JOY KEL LTS NVA PPY PNE RRX RMP SRX SGY TET TNZ CKE GXE IKM LXE MQL PRQ SPE SKX TVE TVETF YO
Painted Pony announced first gas sales out of the Townsend facility with targeted ramp up to 50 mmcf/d in August, 100 mmcf/d in September, and 150 mmcf/d in October. Increased volumes forecasts paired with lower anticipated capital lease fees drives a 12% and 6% increase to our cash flow estimates in 2016e and 2017e respectively. Outperform recommendation is reconfirmed on an increased target price of $12.50 per share (previously $10.50 per share).
Impact: Positive, as early completion of the Townsend facility derisks a major component of the Company's production ramp up. Additionally, lower capital lease fees as a result of an extended amortization and slight efficiencies gained will manifest in higher corporate cash flows moving forward, all else equal.
With this publication we highlight forecast revisions associated with our commodity price update (Natural Gas Update; Crude Oil Update), reaffirming a view of commodity price recovery in 2017e. In the interim until then, 2016e Canadian oil price realizations are up ~11% in the synthetic and Edmonton Light streams, with heavy WCS crude up ~20% which is amplified by Canadian oilsands output curtailments. While 2016e Canadian natural gas prices are projected to be ~20% lower, we expect much of this
Companies: ARX CPG ERF TOU POU CJ PPY SRX LXE
Painted Pony reported 1Q16 production and cash flow that were in line with our estimates.
With this publication we briefly summarize our projections for 1Q16e quarterly results for the Junior E&P (Intermediate, Mid & Small Cap) segments of our coverage universe
Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PSK VII TOU VET WCP BNE CJ CR DEE JOY KEL LTS LRE NVA PPY PNE RRX RMP SRX SGY TET TNZ CKE GXE IKM LXE ROAOF MQL RE SPE SKX TVE TVETF YGR YO
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on PAINTED PONY PETROLEUM. We currently have 37 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
Following the announcement of test results for all three zones at Royston, where we now see a compelling oil development opportunity, we have revisited our FY21F and FY22F estimates for Touchstone and introduce numbers for FY23F. Our forecasts for the financial year just ended are not materially changed (certainly in revenue and net profit terms) – with Touchstone’s results for the nine months to September having previously indicated that it was tracking reasonably well against our estimates for
Companies: Touchstone Exploration Inc
Companies: Canadian Overseas Petroleum Limited
Companies: Sylvania Platinum Ltd.
Companies: Shanta Gold Limited
Pantheon Resources announced that it has commenced drilling the Theta West #1 well, which has now drilled to a depth of 1,874 feet – target depth is circa 9,200 feet. The well is targeting i) the Upper Basin Floor Fan and ii) the Lower Basin floor fan, both of which are referred to as Theta West. Theta West has a combined best estimate success-case recoverable resource of 1.4 billion barrels of oil.
Companies: Pantheon Resources plc
Joiners: No Joiners Today. Leavers: Rutherford Health has left the AQSE and Prime People has left AIM. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen? ACP Energy plc, a company formed for the purpose of undertaking an acquisition or acquisitions of a majority interest in a company, business or asset, seeking to join the Main Market (Standard) The Company intends to focus on opportunities in the natural resources sector, raising gross proceeds of £830k. Due 28 Jan. Artemis Resources ltd, an ASX listed mining
Companies: STAF CASP EKF SAR LTG ERGO EDR BARK
Wentworth Resources plc has released a strong operational update and its 2022 production guidance, with the Company in its strongest ever position in its corporate history. In Q4/21 Wentworth achieved an all-time quarterly production record at Mnazi Bay of 91.5MMscf/d, demonstrating the continued strong demand for gas in Tanzania. FY21 average gross production was 81.6MMscf/d, above the high-end of the Company's revised guidance (70-80MMscf/d) and our own estimate (80MMscf/d). Gross production g
Companies: Wentworth Resources PLC
Bushveld ended 2021 on a firmer operational footing than it began the year, its focus on stabilising production levels at Vametco helping it reach the upper end of its rebased full-year group production guidance range whilst keeping costs under control. With operational stability now in place, thoughts can once more turn to growth. The commissioning of Kiln 3 at Vanchem is on track for Q2 2022 and should bring higher rates there in H2 and see Bushveld exit the year with a sustainable group produ
Companies: Bushveld Minerals Limited
West Newton potential flow rate analysis
Companies: Union Jack Oil Plc
Savannah’s FY21 trading update demonstrates continued progress at its Nigerian operations, with strong growth in gas volumes, revenues ahead of guidance, robust cost controls and net debt levels declining. This should be encouraging for investors as Savannah expands its sphere of operations and looks to deliver growth on multiple fronts – the recently announced Chad/Cameroon acquisitions are highly accretive and set to more than double the scale of the company’s operations, while additional grow
Companies: Savannah Energy Plc
As part of the Stage 3 work programme, Falcon Oil & Gas has confirmed that it will embark on a fully-funded, high-impact, extensive work programme in 2022. The Company will drill, fracture stimulate and test two 2,000m+ horizontal wells, with the aim of providing line of sight to the commercialisation of the Beetaloo. The programme will focus on the Amungee Member B shale, following the successful production log test in 2021, which suggested a normalised gas flow rate of 5.2-5.8MMscf/d per 1,000
Companies: Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd.
Initiating Coverage: Price Target 20p Potential Beyond Tin AfriTin Mining Limited (ATM) is one of only three listed tin producers in Western markets. It has a large (820km2) land package in Namibia comprising 5 prospective licenses of which the Uis mine is the most advanced and already in production. Near term growth is being delivered with an 80% increase in tin production between 2022 and 2024. However, this is only scratching the surface and there are more than conceptual plans being fo
Companies: AfriTin Mining Ltd.
• Oil production has been averaging ~20,000 bb/d since January 12, 2022 with export routes, including the Northern Peruvian Pipeline, fully functional. From 16/12/2021 until 12/01/2022, production was constrained to ~5 mbbl/d to manage storage capacity and barge availability due to pump station 1 bottlenecks. This resulted in 4Q21 production of 10,147 bbl/d, below our expectations of 11,500 bbl/d. All these issues have now been resolved. • The 8H and 9H wells continue to perform very well with p
Companies: PetroTal Corp.
Companies: Atlantic Lithium Limited.
Joiners: No Joiners Today. Leavers: Sumo Group has left AIM following a takeover. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen? Unbound Group PLC, (currently called Electra Private Equity PLC) to join AIM. Unbound Group, will be the parent company for a range of brands focused on the 55 plus demographic. Initially focused on Hotter Shoes, Unbound's curated, multi-brand retail platform will offer additional products and services that will enhance the enjoyment and wellbeing of its targeted customer communit
Companies: TENG PLUS EVG CHAR CCS BARK
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