Sells small parcel of Montney land for $45 mm

 Painted Pony announced that it has entered into an agreement to sell a 75% working interest in 11,280 gross acres (8,460 net), within the company’s NE BC Montney portfolio, for $45 mm in cash.  Management has intimated that this transaction has no associated production or PDP reserve value, and thus the company has opted to make no changes to its formal 2019 guidance at this time.  Playing its cards close to its chest, the company did not unveil any details as to which block of land this

2Q19 results disappoint, 2019 guidance heading lower

Painted Pony reported 2Q19 results that were well behind consensus expectations on both a production and AFFO basis. Volumes of 48,978 boe/d trailed “street” estimates by 4% while AFFO of $9.1 mm, or $0.06/sh, lagged consensus at $13.3 mm, or $0.08/sh. With more shut-ins and commodity price volatility ahead, Painted Pony is reducing its 2019 guidance to 49,000-51,000 boe/d on spending of $80-$95 mm. For scale, prior guidance was 54,000-56,000 boe/d on capex of $95-$110 mm. July volumes were 52,3

Announces solid 1Q18 results; Revised guidance to retain financial flexibility

Painted Pony’s 1Q18 production of 60,703 boe/d matched our forecast, while cash flow of $46.4 mm, or $0.29 per share, was slightly higher than GMP FE and consensus estimates. In keeping with the recent theme of spending within cash flow, the company has reduced its 2018e capital program from $185 mm and 61,000-63,000 boe/d, to $145-$165 mm and 58,000-60,000 boe/d. The midpoint of the revised guidance range would imply a 16% decrease in capital, though volumes only roll back by 5%. The company’

Announces successful results at new Montney discovery at Beg

Painted Pony’s first well drilled into its 36-section Montney block at Beg was tested for 6.6 days and finished with a 24-hour flow rate of 1,900 boe/d, including 9.5 mmcf/d of natural gas and an estimated 340 bbl/d liquids (60% condensate). Given this result, combined with offsetting competitor activity, management believes this entire block is prospective for Montney development. Future plans for this area remain under consideration, but could include: 1) further development which would requ

Follows peers with cash flow bound 2018 capital program

In line with many within its peer group, Painted Pony has announced a 2018 capital program bound within cash flow. The 2018e program, which currently contemplates spending $185 mm to drill and complete 29.0 and 31.0 net wells, respectively, is expected to generate volumes of 61,000 – 63,000 boe/d. Captured within the substantial production growth noted above, is an increased liquids weighting. The company forecasts a 47% YoY increase in liquids production, 50% of which will be high yield conde

PAINTED PONY REACHES 30,000 BOE/D, TOWNSEND RAMP UP ON SCHEDULE

Impact: Slightly positive. While there will be no changes to our formal estimates as a result of this update, the underlying risk of the Company growing from 16,600 boe/d in 2Q16 to 40,000 boe/d by the end of the year is significantly reduced with confirmation of corporate volumes at 30,000 boe/d over the past 5 days.

2Q16 Results In Line, Incremental Capital Formally Added to 2H16e

Painted Pony reported 2Q16 production and cash flow that overlaid our estimates. As expected, the Company has formally increased its 2016 capital spending guidance to $199 mm from $179 mm previously, as a result of early commissioning of the AltaGas Townsend facility, which will naturally necessitate more wells to achieve the unchanged 40,000 boe/d 2016e exit marker. Current volumes through the Townsend facility are tracking the new ramp-up schedule while total corporate volume guidance of 23,00

2Q16 RESULTS INLINE, INCREMENTAL CAPITAL FORMALLY ADDED TO 2H16E

Impact: Positive, while cash flow and production were in line for the quarter, it appears current production is putting the Company on track to beat our prior 3Q16e forecast.

Executes NE BC Montney Asset Exchange

Painted Pony announced that it has entered into an asset exchange agreement with a large industry partner consistent with Progress-Petronas. The exchange encompasses a mutual 15.4 net sections (9,856 net acres), primarily at Daiber, wells and a working interest in a facility owned and operated by Progress-Petronas. The deal will net Painted Pony an additional 5.4 mmcfe/d which will have to be tied-in to the Company’s infrastructure and will, most importantly, bestow 100% WI in the land and wells

2Q16e Quarterly Preview

Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly rev

Announces First Sales from Townsend Facility

Painted Pony announced first gas sales out of the Townsend facility with targeted ramp up to 50 mmcf/d in August, 100 mmcf/d in September, and 150 mmcf/d in October. Increased volumes forecasts paired with lower anticipated capital lease fees drives a 12% and 6% increase to our cash flow estimates in 2016e and 2017e respectively. Outperform recommendation is reconfirmed on an increased target price of $12.50 per share (previously $10.50 per share).

ANNOUNCES FIRST SALES FROM TOWNSEND FACILITY

Impact: Positive, as early completion of the Townsend facility derisks a major component of the Company's production ramp up. Additionally, lower capital lease fees as a result of an extended amortization and slight efficiencies gained will manifest in higher corporate cash flows moving forward, all else equal.

Intermediates, Mid Caps & Small Cap Commodity Price Update

With this publication we highlight forecast revisions associated with our commodity price update (Natural Gas Update; Crude Oil Update), reaffirming a view of commodity price recovery in 2017e. In the interim until then, 2016e Canadian oil price realizations are up ~11% in the synthetic and Edmonton Light streams, with heavy WCS crude up ~20% which is amplified by Canadian oilsands output curtailments. While 2016e Canadian natural gas prices are projected to be ~20% lower, we expect much of this

Painted Pony’s 1Q16 Results as Expected, Bank Line ReConfirmed at $325 mm

Painted Pony reported 1Q16 production and cash flow that were in line with our estimates.

Intermediates, Mid Caps & Small Caps

With this publication we briefly summarize our projections for 1Q16e quarterly results for the Junior E&P (Intermediate, Mid & Small Cap) segments of our coverage universe

LIBERUM: Sylvania Platinum* - FY22 annual dividend is 33% higher than our estimate

Union Jack Oil# - West Newton update

West Newton update

IOG - H1 2022 Results

H1 2022 Results

Union Jack Oil# - Wressle reserves and resources report

Wressle reserves and resources report

Impressive H1 sees record interim dividend

A typically strong operational performance at Kounrad and materially higher realised zinc prices at Sasa versus the year-ago period helped CAML overcome industry-common cost inflation pressure to post a 16% increase in EBITDA and widen its margin to an impressive 63%. This in turn has given the group confidence to declare a record interim dividend of 10p, which annualised puts CAML on a compelling yield of 9%. Despite increasing metals markets volatility and the potential for further inflationar

Auctus on Friday - 6/09/2022

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Longboat Energy (LBE LN)C; Target price of £1.25 per share: Copernicus is dry - The Copernicus exploration well on licence PL1017 was dry. The well failed to encounter any effective reservoir. This was a high risk well. Drilling was much quicker than anticipated. As a result, the cost of the well was materially under budget, suggesting that the balance sheet of the company could be stronger than our current assumption. We reduce our ta

Jersey Oil and Gas* - H1 2022 results and farm out update

H1 2022 results and farm out update

Central Asia Metals: Interim Results

Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) reported record H1 results on the back of robust production and higher commodity prices. H1 2022 net revenue of US$114m was up 13% YoY, EBITDA of US$75m was up 16% YoY and the EBITDA margin increased 2pp to 63%. An FX gain of US$7m, combined with the reductions in interest payments from debt reduction and higher profits meant net income was up 72% YoY to US$53m. With capex this year weighted to H2, the company’s free cash flow metric was up 7% YoY to US$52m enabling

Cenkos: Chariot Ltd -- Enabling the Energy Transition

Chariot has announced a partnership with Total Eren to jointly develop the Nour Project, a large-scale green hydrogen project to be located in Mauritania. The consortium will benefit from the dedicated expertise of Total Eren's team, holding a wide range of experience and knowledge in solar, wind, hybrid and green hydrogen projects globally. The involvement of Total Eren adds balance sheet strength and credibility to the project, whilst strengthening the existing relationship between Total Eren

Cenkos: Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd -- Origin Divests Beetaloo Interest

Falcon's Beetaloo JV partner, Origin Energy has announced its intention to exit all of its upstream exploration permits as part of a strategic decision to focus on cleaner energy and customer solutions. As part of this strategy, Origin has agreed to divest 100% of its interest in the Beetaloo Basin to a JV of Tamboran Resources and Bryan Sheffield for an upfront consideration of A$60m and a 5.5% royalty on future production from Origin's 77.5% working interest. At US$60m the upfront consideratio

SHORE CAPITAL - Union Jack Oil+ (UJO, 31p, House Stock) – Lifting of UK fraccing moratorium confirmed

Year-exit target rate in sight despite Kiln 3 challenges

H1 was a mixed half for Bushveld, the continuing strong performance of Vametco offset by unexpected challenges associated with the commissioning and subsequent ramp up of Kiln 3 at Vanchem. The latter has prompted the group to reduce full-year group production guidance (with unit cost expectations increased somewhat), though we still expect positive EBITDA for the full-year and H2 capex and debt repayment obligations look adequately covered. The year-exit production rate target of 5,000-5,400t p

Condor Gold: Feasibility Study provides solid base despite cost pressure; further upsides still to be factored in

Condor Gold (“CNR”) has announced completion of the La India Open Pit Feasibility Study (“FS”), an important milestone as CNR advances the project towards development. The headline results show a post-tax IRR of 23% and NPV of US$87m using a gold price of US$1,600/oz and 5% WACC. Initial capital expenditure is estimated at US$105m and all-in sustaining costs of US$1,039/oz for annual average output of 82kozpa gold for the first 6 years of an 8.4 year mine life. The FS provides a solid base again

LIBERUM: Atlantic Lithium* - PFS: US$1.33bn NPV, IRR of 224% on capex of US$125m

SHORE CAPITAL - Scotgold Resources^ (SGZ) - House Stock at 67p