Painted Pony announced that it has entered into an agreement to sell a 75% working interest in 11,280 gross acres (8,460 net), within the company’s NE BC Montney portfolio, for $45 mm in cash. Management has intimated that this transaction has no associated production or PDP reserve value, and thus the company has opted to make no changes to its formal 2019 guidance at this time. Playing its cards close to its chest, the company did not unveil any details as to which block of land this represents, though it’s expected that more information will be revealed upon close of the transaction; currently slated for October 31, 2019. Proceeds from this transaction will be earmarked for debt repayment, which would see the company’s net debt position improve markedly, with our estimated total debt balance of $373 mm exiting 3Q19, poised for a 12% reduction upon successful close. Further, its expected 2019e D/CF (trailing) will fall from 4.6x to ~4.0x.
Companies: PAINTED PONY PETROLEUM
Painted Pony reported 2Q19 results that were well behind consensus expectations on both a production and AFFO basis. Volumes of 48,978 boe/d trailed “street” estimates by 4% while AFFO of $9.1 mm, or $0.06/sh, lagged consensus at $13.3 mm, or $0.08/sh. With more shut-ins and commodity price volatility ahead, Painted Pony is reducing its 2019 guidance to 49,000-51,000 boe/d on spending of $80-$95 mm. For scale, prior guidance was 54,000-56,000 boe/d on capex of $95-$110 mm. July volumes were 52,350 boe/d. Management is in discussions with large industrial customers for the delivery of natural gas, which could lead to improved physical and financial diversification of its realized gas pricing. The company is also contemplating asset dispositions (both core and non-core) which could help improve a severely challenged leverage position. Mr. Rick Kessy, COO, is leaving the company and will be replaced by incoming VP Operations and Development, Mr. Mike Backus.
Painted Pony’s 1Q18 production of 60,703 boe/d matched our forecast, while cash flow of $46.4 mm, or $0.29 per share, was slightly higher than GMP FE and consensus estimates. In keeping with the recent theme of spending within cash flow, the company has reduced its 2018e capital program from $185 mm and 61,000-63,000 boe/d, to $145-$165 mm and 58,000-60,000 boe/d. The midpoint of the revised guidance range would imply a 16% decrease in capital, though volumes only roll back by 5%. The company’s bank line was reduced $50 mm, to $400 mm, but is now more flexible with all financial covenant requirements removed. Drawings on this LOC at the end of 1Q18 totalled $164 mm.
Painted Pony’s first well drilled into its 36-section Montney block at Beg was tested for 6.6 days and finished with a 24-hour flow rate of 1,900 boe/d, including 9.5 mmcf/d of natural gas and an estimated 340 bbl/d liquids (60% condensate). Given this result, combined with offsetting competitor activity, management believes this entire block is prospective for Montney development. Future plans for this area remain under consideration, but could include: 1) further development which would require a 15-20 km long pipeline to connect to the AltaGas Townsend facility, or 2) the outright sale of this block to pay down debt and focus on its core Montney holdings.
In line with many within its peer group, Painted Pony has announced a 2018 capital program bound within cash flow. The 2018e program, which currently contemplates spending $185 mm to drill and complete 29.0 and 31.0 net wells, respectively, is expected to generate volumes of 61,000 – 63,000 boe/d. Captured within the substantial production growth noted above, is an increased liquids weighting. The company forecasts a 47% YoY increase in liquids production, 50% of which will be high yield condensate. With stubbornly low western Canadian natural gas prices persisting in 4Q17e, the company voluntarily shut-in ~9,000 boe/d. As such, 4Q17e volume targets have drifted downwards to between 51,000 – 53,000 boe/d, falling short of GMP FE’s former view of ~55,000 boe/d.
Impact: Slightly positive. While there will be no changes to our formal estimates as a result of this update, the underlying risk of the Company growing from 16,600 boe/d in 2Q16 to 40,000 boe/d by the end of the year is significantly reduced with confirmation of corporate volumes at 30,000 boe/d over the past 5 days.
Painted Pony reported 2Q16 production and cash flow that overlaid our estimates. As expected, the Company has formally increased its 2016 capital spending guidance to $199 mm from $179 mm previously, as a result of early commissioning of the AltaGas Townsend facility, which will naturally necessitate more wells to achieve the unchanged 40,000 boe/d 2016e exit marker. Current volumes through the Townsend facility are tracking the new ramp-up schedule while total corporate volume guidance of 23,000 boe/d in 3Q16e appears to be running hotter than our prior forecast. Based on reduced well costs reverberating through our RENAV methodology, we have increased our target price to $13.00/share.
Impact: Positive, while cash flow and production were in line for the quarter, it appears current production is putting the Company on track to beat our prior 3Q16e forecast.
Painted Pony announced that it has entered into an asset exchange agreement with a large industry partner consistent with Progress-Petronas. The exchange encompasses a mutual 15.4 net sections (9,856 net acres), primarily at Daiber, wells and a working interest in a facility owned and operated by Progress-Petronas. The deal will net Painted Pony an additional 5.4 mmcfe/d which will have to be tied-in to the Company’s infrastructure and will, most importantly, bestow 100% WI in the land and wells acquired in the swap. We have made no changes to our estimates in light of the deal and as such continue to offer an Outperform ranking and 12-month target price of $12.50 per share, recently revised in our Facts dated July 20, 2016, concurrent with the Company’s announcement of an early start-up of the 198 mmcf/d Townsend facility
Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly reversed into summer, market likely to ignore financials for natural gas producers and look ahead to winter and formalization of sell-side 2018e estimates in coming months. Spot AECO natural gas prices recently crested C$2.60/mcf, and with a reasonable alignment of previously distressed NE BC Stn2 differentials, augmented by a withdrawal expected next week, view the market psyche as constructive and looking ahead, with the analogy that this market is shaping up to mirror 2012 still holding. That said, with crude oil poised to retest support levels, combined with strong stock price performance broadly observed YTD, we would characterize sentiment as slightly pessimistic in the near-term which could reduce or unwind momentum-based investment strategies that have worked thus far in 2016.
Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PWT PSK VII TOU VET WCP BNE CJ CR DEE JOY KEL LTS NVA PPY PNE RRX RMP SRX SGY TOG TET ATU CKE GXE IKM LXE MQL PRQ SPE SKX TVE TVETF YO
Painted Pony announced first gas sales out of the Townsend facility with targeted ramp up to 50 mmcf/d in August, 100 mmcf/d in September, and 150 mmcf/d in October. Increased volumes forecasts paired with lower anticipated capital lease fees drives a 12% and 6% increase to our cash flow estimates in 2016e and 2017e respectively. Outperform recommendation is reconfirmed on an increased target price of $12.50 per share (previously $10.50 per share).
Impact: Positive, as early completion of the Townsend facility derisks a major component of the Company's production ramp up. Additionally, lower capital lease fees as a result of an extended amortization and slight efficiencies gained will manifest in higher corporate cash flows moving forward, all else equal.
With this publication we highlight forecast revisions associated with our commodity price update (Natural Gas Update; Crude Oil Update), reaffirming a view of commodity price recovery in 2017e. In the interim until then, 2016e Canadian oil price realizations are up ~11% in the synthetic and Edmonton Light streams, with heavy WCS crude up ~20% which is amplified by Canadian oilsands output curtailments. While 2016e Canadian natural gas prices are projected to be ~20% lower, we expect much of this effect to be mitigated by strong hedging positions this year, and remain focused on price recovery next year with very strong increases reflected in both the strip and our revised forecast. Overall, broad valuations are flat to slightly higher coming out of this exercise, with oil/ liquids levered entities observing the highest 2017e CFO uptick. We remain constructive on the space, though the market will need to look past a trough of potentially weak pricing this summer.
Companies: ARX CPG ERF TOU POU CJ PPY SRX LXE
Painted Pony reported 1Q16 production and cash flow that were in line with our estimates.
With this publication we briefly summarize our projections for 1Q16e quarterly results for the Junior E&P (Intermediate, Mid & Small Cap) segments of our coverage universe
Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PSK VII TOU VET WCP BNE CJ CR DEE JOY KEL LTS LRE NVA PPY PNE RRX RMP SRX SGY TOG TET ATU CKE GXE IKM LXE ROAOF MQL RE SPE SKX TVE TVETF YGR YO
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Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) has reported Q4 2020 production with 3,365t of copper taking full year output to 13,855 in line with our forecast of 13.9kt and at the top end of guidance. Q4 lead output was 7,442t meaning 29,741t over the full year, up 2% YoY and in line with our forecast of 30kt while zinc output of 5,848t took full year output to 23,815t again in line with our forecast of 24kt and up 2% YoY despite the disruption at Sasa which CAML has overcome rapidly as we expected.
Companies: Central Asia Metals Plc
Jubilee put out an intraday press release yesterday updating on the performance in the first half (ending Dec 2020) of the FY 2021. Once again Jubilee delivers; significantly increased revenues and profits from its chrome and PGM division in South Africa and a small, but important, contribution from Zambia. Notably this improvement isn't just from commodity price performance; rather increased production, productivity, throughput, renegotiated contracts and all set alongside the strong performance of commodity prices –rhodium, palladium and platinum. We see this as still only the start for Jubilee as we look forward to the first copper oxide concentrates from the Roan project in Zambia to the Sable Refinery – where the Roan plant is currently under construction. Once again we are struck by the speed at which Jubilee moves to advance its projects and, with its South African cash engine showing no signs of slowing down. Jubilee can choose to move its wider ambitions in Zambia forward from internally generated cash flow. On the back of the strong performance we put our forecasts under review.
Companies: Jubilee Metals Group PLC
Anglesey Mining (AYM LN) – Mineral resources and PEA for Parys Mountain Castillo Copper (CCZ LN) – Further assay results from drilling at the Big One project in Queensland Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) – Stable production reported in 2020 with final dividend to be announced in March IronRidge Resources* (IRR LN) – Sale of non-core gold project Keras Resources* (KRS LN) – Keras increase stake in the Daiamond Creek organic phosphate mine to 51% Power Metal Resources* (POW LN) – Molopo Farms drilling highlights nickel and PGM potential Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) – Progress of Nevada exploration
Companies: POW AYM CAML KRS TYM CCZ IRR
The revised threshold for the imposition of Supplemental Petroleum Tax (SPT) has now been implemented, with the threshold at which SPT is due increasing from US$50/bbl to US$75/bbl for the financial years 2021 and 2022. As a result, we expect Trinity to be exempt from SPT across all of its onshore licences below US$75/bbl. Using the forward WTI oil price curve as the basis for our model, we currently forecast Trinity paying no SPT during 2021 and 2022. We estimate that at the current forward price curve (2021: US$52/bbl) cUS$3.6m of SPT would have previously been payable by Trinity in 2021. As such, these SPT reforms represent a considerable boost to potential cash flow generation from Trinity's onshore licences should realisations average above US$50.01/bbl for any calendar quarter during 2021 and 2022. We update our model, increasing our price target to 32p (from 31p) a 160% premium to the current share price and reiterate our BUY recommendation.
Companies: Trinity Exploration & Production Plc
Trading update
Companies: Hurricane Energy Plc
Union Jack Oil (UJO) has announced that the workover rig, associated services and equipment were mobilised to the Wressle oilfield development site during the week commencing 4 January 2021. The company, which holds a 40% economic interest in Wressle, expects that operations to enable the primary Ashover Grit reservoir to be flowed will be completed prior to the end of January 2021. With the field expected to commence production at a constrained rate of 500 bopd, UJO’s net production will be boosted by an additional 200 bopd providing valuable cash flow to the company in 2021.
Companies: Union Jack Oil Plc
We put forward a fair value estimate to 82.8p for Pantheon Resources from “under review for an upward revision” as from 25 November 2020 and from 75p as per our initiation note dated 11 November 2020.
Companies: Pantheon Resources plc
Arc Minerals* (ARCM LN) – Arc Minerals extends exclusivity agreement with Anglo for a further 180 days Cornish Metals* (CUSN CN) – Intention to float on AIM market Greatland Gold (GGP LN) – Newcrest approves A4146m for preparatory mining work at Havieron IronRidge Resources* (IRR LN) – Drilling defines multiple targets at Ewoyaa Lithium Project Kenmare Resources (KMR LN) – 2020 production and 2021 guidance Sunrise Resources (SRES LN) – Progress report on projects Zamare Minerals* (Private) - Zamare announce agreement with First Quantum Minerals over the Ntambu exploration license in Zambia
Companies: CUSN ARCM GGP KMR SRES IRR
European Metals has recently enjoyed a long overdue share price re-rating. The shares have increased ten-fold from Covid lows in April 2020 on the back of a marked improvement in lithium sector sentiment. EMH’s market cap is now £127m. Covid has in many ways accelerated the push towards EVs and the low carbon agenda. Europe is now the battleground for Electric Vehicles (“EVs”) where material sources, security of supply and the entire value chain is coming under ever increasing scrutiny. The DFS at EMH’s Cinovec project is due for completion by the end of 2021.The time has come for EMH and over the next 12 months we should see with more clarity how Cinovec fits into Europe’s growing EV and battery industry. We see no other project better placed to dovetail into the European battery market and supply battery-grade lithium at scale.
Companies: European Metals Holdings Limited
Bahamas Petroleum Company (BPC LN)C; Target Price: 6.70p: Funding update – BPC has exercised a put option to raise £3.75 mm priced at 2p per share. PetroTal (PTAL LN/TAL CN)C: Target Price increased from £0.45 to £0.50: US$100 mm bond to accelerate activities and grow production - PetroTal is launching a bond issue to raise US$100 mm. This would allow the firm to accelerate drilling and development activities at Bretana (~US$40 mm), clean up its balance sheet, put in place a hedging programme and allow the firm to consider regional acquisitions. Assuming the extra funding is put in place, we are increasing our capex programme for 2021 from US$40 mm to US$90 mm. We are also increasing our production forecast for 2021 from ~11 mbbl/d to ~15 mbbl/d that we maintain broadly flat in 2023 as we assume PetroTal will drill additional wells before production starts to decline from 2024. We note that the 3P case only assumes five additional wells (~US$70 mm) compared to the 2P case. With more production, we are now forecasting operating cashflow of ~US$170 mm in 2022 and ~US$155 mm in 2023. We are also increasing our Core NAV from £0.43 per share to £0.52 per share. The additional funding would also allow the company to drill exploration wells such as the 70 mmbbl Constitucion prospect (£0.40 per share Unrisked). Pharos Energy (PHAR LN)C; Increasing our target price from £0.35 to £0.40 per share on reserves uplift – The highlight of Pharos’ operational update is the ~40% increase in 2P reserves in Egypt expected as at YE20 (YE19 28.5 mmbbl). This reflects improved waterflood performance based on recent field data, and a new drilling and workover plan for 2021 onwards. Drilling is expected to recommence in Vietnam in 3Q21, a quarter earlier than previously announced. We have increased our target price from £0.35 per share to £0.40 per share to factor in the expected increase in reserves in Egypt. We estimate the value of Pharos based on Vietnam only at £0.23-0.27 per share. This is 15-35% above the current share price. Securing a partner to fund a development programme with four rigs in Egypt would increase the value of the ~ 40 mmbbl 2P reserves in Eqypt and unlock the contingent and 108 mmbbl prospective resources. Our incremental unrisked value for the four rig programme is £0.17-0.19 per share (~85% upside to the current share price). Successfully negotiating new terms with EGPC could lead to an improvement of up to US$6/bbl in the breakeven price. We have previously estimated that securing similar terms to TransGlobe would boost our Core NAV by £0.10-0.12 per share and ReNAV by £0.13-0.15 per share. TransGlobe Energy’s share price has tripled since the new terms on its licences were announced. Tethys Oil (TETY SS)C; Target Price: SEK75.00: Production update in Oman – Production at Block 3&4 in December was 11,481 bbl/d. Vaalco Energy (EGY LN/US)C; Target Price: £4.00: Initiating Coverage - VAALCO is a US and UK listed ~£75 mm market cap, ~10 mbbl/d oil producer (pro-forma) with West African assets. VAALCO has an excellent track record as an operator having grown a 30 mmbbl discovery in Gabon to a field that has produced >118 mmbbl so far with an additional 37 mmbbl remaining 2P reserves plus ~80 mmbbl upside at YE19. The shares have suffered in the past from (1) a lack of materiality as VAALCO held only ~31% of its main asset, with G&A viewed as representing a disproportionate amount of cash flow and (2) lack of visibility on how the significant amount of cash on the balance sheet would be deployed. The US$44 mm acquisition of an additional ~28% WI in Etame announced in November, thereby almost doubling production, reserves and resources overnight, has addressed these issues. The story is now about continuing to grow reserves at the producing Gabonese field and to replicate this success elsewhere. With estimated net cash of >US$25 mm at the end of 1Q21, VAALCO’ s shares trade at less than half our 2P NAV of ~£2.70 per share. The current share price discounts an EV/DACF multiple of 1.2x in 2021. Low risk infill drilling of contingent resources could add ~£0.45 per share (30% of share price) with an overall unrisked value for the upside at the producing asset of £4.80 per share (~4x the current share price). Finalizing the farm out of its asset in Equatorial Guinea could start unlocking a further £4.20 of unrisked value. Our target price of £4.00 per share (~ our ReNAV) represents ~230% upside. Wentworth Resources (WEN LN)C; Target Price: £0.40: >100 mmcf/d reached in December - FY20 gross production was 65.36 mmcf/d (in the middle of the 60-70 mmcf/d guidance) with ~83 mmcf/d on average during the month of December. Repairs to the MB-2 flowline were completed on 9 December, increasing the capacity of the field to over 100 mmcf/d. Production reached 103 mmcf/d for five days during that month. Gross production guidance for FY21 is 65-75 mmcf/d, below the 80 mmcf/d we were carrying as production growth is pushed back by a year. Cash on hand of ~US$18 mm is in line with our expectations. With 70 mmcf/d gross production in 2021 and almost no capex, we forecast FY21 Free Cash Flow of ~US$10 mm. With FY20 dividends of only US$3.2 mm and ~US$18 mm in cash, we believe there is scope to increase the dividend. At the current share price, the FY20 dividend represents a yield of ~6%. Even after the recent share price appreciation, the shares continue to trade at EV/DACF multiples of 2.9x in 2021 and 2.2x in 2022. This compares with 3.8x for 2020, suggesting there is room for multiple expansion given the stable nature of the business. IN OTHER NEWS ________________________________________ AMERICAS 88 Energy (88E LN/AU): Acquisition in Alaska – 88 Energy is acquiring the Umiat Oil Field, located on the North Slope of Alaska. The proceeds consist of a 4% overriding royalty interest and the assumption of the abandonment liability of two historic wells (at an estimated cost of ~US$1 mm). Umiat is an historic oil discovery, made in 1945 in shallow Brookian (Nanushuk) sandstones, located immediately adjacent to southern boundary of Project Peregrine. The Umiat-23H well was flow tested at a sustained rate of 200 bbl/d with no water in 2014. Gross 2P reserves were estimated at 123.7 mmbbl on 1 December 2015. Equinor (EQNR NO): Farming down Argentinian offshore exploration to Shell - Equinor and YPF farm-down 30% interests in the CAN 100 block, located in the North Argentinian Basin to Shell. Pantheon Resources (PANR LN): Dispute in East Texas and acquisition of new acreage - Kinder Morgan has filed a petition against Pantheon, seeking payment of ~US$3.35mm with respect to the early termination of a Gas Treating Agreement between Kinder Morgan and Vision Operating Company. In a separate statement, the company indicated it has acquired 100% interest in ~66,000 acres in the State of Alaska's North Slope Areawide Lease Sale. The new leases are positioned in two areas contiguous to the company’s current acreage. Parex Resources (PXT CN): Operation update in Colombia – 4Q20 production was 46,550 boe/d compared to Parex’ guidance of 45,500-47,500 boe/d. 1Q21 production is expected to average 46,500-47,500 boe/d. The Brent/Vasconia differential is currently ~US$2/bbl. Parex estimates a cash position of US$325 mm at YE20. Total (FP FP): Discovery in Suriname - The Keskesi East-1 well, in Block 58, encountered a total of 63 meters net pay of hydrocarbons, comprised of 58 meters net black oil, volatile oil, and gas pay in good quality Campano-Maastrichtian reservoirs, along with 5 meters of net volatile oil pay in Santonian reservoirs. EUROPE Independent Oil & Gas (IOG LN): Operating update in the UK – Phase 1 remains on schedule for First Gas in 3Q21. Drilling is expected to start in early 2Q21. Hurricane Energy (HUR LN): Operating update in the UK North Sea - Production for the final four months of 2020 averaged 12,500 bbl/d. Current water cut is 25%. YE20 net free cash was US$106 mm, compared to US$87 mm at 30 November 2020. Lundin Energy (LUNE SS): Resources increase in Norway – YE20 2P reserves are 670.9 mmboe (+ 39.3 mmboe versus YE19). The YE20 2C resources are 275.5 mmboe (+90.2 mmboe et YE19). OMV (OMV AG): Trading update – 4Q20 production was 472 mboe/d including 290 mboe/d of natural gas. FORMER SOVIET UNION Enwell Energy (ENW LN): Operating update in the Ukraine – 4Q20 production was 4,444 boe/d. At YE20, the company held US$61 mm in cash. Petroneft (PTR LN): Potential acquisition in Russia – Petroneft is looking to acquire an additional 40% interest in Licence 67 from Belgrave Naftogas for US$2.9 mm including US$1.2 mm in shares and the balance in cash. MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP LN): Operating update in Kurdistan – FY20 gross production at Shaikan was 36,625 bbl/d with current production of 44,000 bbl/d. As at 12 January 2021, the Company had a cash balance of US$147 mm. FY21 gross production guidance has been set at 40,000 to 44,000 bbl/d with US$15 to $20 mm net capex and US$2.5 to US$2.9/bbl opex. ShaMaran Petroleum (SNM CN): Terms update for bonds – ShaMaran is looking to use free cash in excess of US$15 mm to buy back its Bonds in the market to satisfy the cash sweep redemption requirements. United Oil & Gas (UOG LN): Production update in Egypt – 2H20 WI production was 2,340 boe/d in line with guidance for the period of 2,300 boe/d. SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA BW Energy (NEW NO): Farm-in transaction in Namibia – BW Energy is acquiring 39% WI in the Kudu offshore licence from the National Petroleum Corporation of Namibia (NAMCOR). BW will pay US$4 mm in cash and carry NAMCOR’s share of development costs until first gas. NAMCOR will also have the opportunity to acquire an additional 5% working interest post first gas. Orca Energy (ORC.A/B CN): Update in Tanzania – FY20 sales volumes were 57.7 mmcf/d. Cash and short-term investments totalled US$103.8 mm at YE20. As at YE20 there were no current receivables due from TANESCO. The TANESCO long-term trade receivable was US$27.6 mm. EVENTS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK ________________________________________ 18/01/2021: Repsol (REP SM) – Trading update 19/01/2021: Genel Energy (GENL LN) – 4Q20 trading update 20/01/2021: Cairn Energy (CNE LN): Trading update
Companies: 88E BPC EQNR HUR LUNE PXT PHAR SNM TETY TETY FP EGY WEN
Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) is our top pick for exposure to copper and following the recent operational and financial normalisation the shares have jumped, up 16% since our last note. Our copper price forecast assumptions implied that during Q4 2020 the price, at that point up 47% from March lows would pause. This has not come to pass, now up 60% to eight year highs of US$7,688/t, indicating a higher starting point in 2021F and we have upgraded our forecasts accordingly.
Oil posted the biggest weekly gain since late September as Saudi Arabia's plan to slice output spurred a surge in physical crude buying. Futures in New York advanced $3.72 this week and Brent oil topped $55 a barrel for the first time since February. Saudi Arabia's pledge earlier this week to cut production by 1 million barrels a day in February and March has made for a tighter supply outlook sooner than anticipated. Meanwhile, prospects for additional stimulus under a Biden administration spurred broader market gains. Saudi Arabia's surprise cut appears to have caught some Asian buyers by surprise and demand for US crude for export to Asia has gained this week. Unipec, the trading arm of China's largest refiner, bought its eighth cargo of North Sea crude in a pricing window run by S&P Global Platts this week and was seeking more in what may be the heaviest buying of its kind on record. Brent's move above $55 a barrel caps a stellar few months for the oil market, with crude emerging as a favoured play to bet on coronavirus vaccines and global reflation. Saudi Arabia's pledge has led analysts to rethink their projections for crude's price recovery. Citigroup Inc boosted its price forecasts on Friday, saying the kingdom's actions should accelerate stockpile draws. Meanwhile, annual commodity index rebalancing may provide another tailwind, with as much as $9 billion of oil contracts possibly being bought over the five days of activity that start Friday, Citigroup said. Prices Brent for March settlement advanced $1.61 to end the session at $55.99 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate for February delivery rose $1.41 to settle at $52.24 a barrel. Both benchmarks are at the highest since late February. The kingdom's shock move has rippled across the oil market this week, with the difference between the price of oil for different months firming markedly in recent sessions. WTI's nearest contract traded at a premium to the following month for the first time since May, while the closely watched spread between the nearest two December contracts is at its strongest intraday level since last January.
Companies: FO PRP 88E DGOC EME TRIN UOG
Wressle update
• PetroTal is launching a bond issue to raise US$100 mm. This would allow the firm to accelerate drilling and development activities at Bretana (~US$40 mm), put in place a hedging programme and allow the firm to consider regional acquisitions. • Some of the proceeds of the bond issue will be used to repay the US$16.6 mm derivative liabilities to Petroperu that was formalized in November. However, with the recent upwards shift of the forward curve, the potential derivative liabilities is now an asset and Petroperu is expected to owe PetroTal ~US$8 mm. Under the current forward curve, PetroTal should therefore now receive a total of ~US$25 mm (=US$16.6 mm + US$8 mm) from Petroperu from the settled oil profits during 1Q21. • Assuming the extra funding is put in place, we are increasing our capex programme for 2021 from US$40 mm to US$90 mm. We are also increasing our production forecast for 2021 from ~11 mbbl/d to ~15 mbbl/d that we maintain broadly flat in 2023 as we assume PetroTal will drill additional wells before starting to decline from 2024. We note that the 3P case only assumes five additional wells (~US$70 mm) compared to the 2P case. • Current production has now increased from 9.5 mbbl/d last week to 10 mbbl/d. • PetroTal has now also signed an agreement for a second pilot shipment through Brazil in February 2021, of up to 220,000 barrels of oil. Positive impact on cash flow and NAV With more production, we are now forecasting operating cashflow of ~US$170 mm in 2022 and ~US$155 mm in 2023. We are also increasing our Core NAV from £0.43 per share to £0.52 per share. The additional funding would also allow the company to drill exploration wells such as the 70 mmbbl Constitucion prospect (£0.40 per share Unrisked). We are increasing our target price from £0.45 per share to £0.50 per share in line with our new Core NAV. Our target price represents over 3x the current share price.
Companies: PetroTal Corp.
Bluejay Mining* (JAY LN) – BUY, Valuation 29.4p – Bluejay agrees jv with Rio Tinto over the Enonkoski Project in Finland Bushveld Minerals* (BMN LN) – BUY - Valuation 37.7p – Ferro-Vanadium prices jump 11.6% in the US Edenville Energy* (EDL LN) – Funding agreement refinanced and £900k raised Kodal Minerals* (KOD LN) – Further progress at West African gold assets Lucara Diamonds (LUC CN) – Karowe mine yields 341 carat diamond Serabi Gold* (SRB LN) –Q4 production results continue modest recovery of Q3
Companies: LUC JAY BMN EDL KOD SRB
