2020 Outlook
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Tamarack Valley reported 2Q19 results which were largely in line with consensus, with production, FFOPS, and capital expenditures reported at 24,090 boe/d, $0.26/sh, and $30.7 mm, respectively, as the company continued to be subject to the ongoing Alberta mandated production curtailments. There was no change to the company’s 2019 guidance, with capital investment of $170-$180 mm still expected to generate production of 23,500-24,500 boe/d and FCF in the realm of $40-$50 mm.
Companies: Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd.
With continued well outperformance in all core areas, production over the last four weeks has crested 25,000 boe/d. Annual and exit 2018e guidance ranges have increased by 500 boe/d to 24,000-24,500 boe/d and 24,500-25,000 boe/d respectively. The capital budget is left unaltered at $223mm - $233 mm. Similarly in 2019e, preliminary guidance grows to 25,500-26,500 boe/d (previously 25,000-26,000 boe/d) and spawns from an unchanged capital program of $222 mm. Tamarack Valley will be added to the TSX Composite Index effective September 24th, 2018.
Production in 2Q18 came in at 23,853 boe/d which was slightly ahead of GMP FE , consensus and company forecasts. Strong cash flow of $61.0 mm or $0.26/sh was 3% ahead of the GMP FE estimate and 8% better than the “street”. Field activity was busier than expected with expenditures of $52.7 mm (vs our $35 mm outlook), however even when paired with $8.4 mm of share buy backs, cash flow sufficiently covered the cash outlay in 2Q. 2018 guidance is being increased to 23,500-24,000 boe/d on strong 1H18 volumes while 2019e capital ($28 mm) is being accelerated into 2018e, which should facilitate continued growth momentum going into next year.
Production in 1Q18 came in at 23,532 boe/d which was slightly ahead of GMP FE, consensus and company forecasts. This was ideally achieved from a capital outlay of ~$72 mm, which was 10% lower than we were forecasting. Strong cash flow of $58.5 mm or $0.25/sh was 10% ahead of GMP FE and street estimates of ~$53 mm or $0.23/sh. Volume growth and lower costs continued to be expected in 2H18 with the 10,000 bbl/d Veteran battery expansion complete and the reactivation of an operated gas plant by the end of 2Q18.
Despite 4Q17 production being pre-released, the company’s cash flow of $57.6 mm or $0.25/sh handily topped consensus estimates of $0.20/sh and our expectation of $0.22/sh. All delivered through capital expenditures that were more than 20% lower than anticipated. The winter drilling program has been completed ahead of schedule and has led to January/February average volumes of 22,800 boe/d, with 20 more wells to bring onstream. Key to its 1H18 outlook is the corporate liquids contributions increasing to 64-66% (up from 62% in 4Q17). Reserve results were as expected and highlighted by F&D costs that imply recycle ratios of 1.4x-1.6x from year-end bookings we continue to view as conservative. A crude oil takeaway agreement for its Alberta Viking oil production, where dedicating 4,000 bbl/d towards Gibson’s 120 km Provost pipeline project, will save it $1.45/boe in operating costs at Veteran.
Tamarack Valley reported production of 20,541 boe/d for 3Q17, in line with consensus expectations; however, a busy third quarter has boosted volumes to 22,000 boe/d, framing the early achievement of 2017e exit guidance. Cash flow of $34.8 mm or $0.15/sh topped our outlook of $0.13/sh, but remained in line with consensus expectations. With forecasted cash flow on the rise, management is accelerating a fraction of its 2018e capital program into 2017e, with increased guidance ranging from $195 to $198 mm (previously $165 to $180 mm), inclusive of ~$9.0 mm of tuck in acquisitions. The company’s credit facility will be increased to $290 mm (from $265 mm) by the end of 2017.
Tamarack’s 2Q16 financial results featured production (pre-released) and capital spending in line with forecasts, with corresponding cash flow that was meaningfully ahead of expectations underpinned by corporate initiatives to reduce operating costs. As a result, the Company’s balance sheet was stronger than anticipated exiting the period, with net debt levels equivalent to a 0.9x run-rate cash flow, or 0.5x its recently reduced $120 mm credit facility (down from $165 mm prior). Our forward view is virtually unchanged as is our 12-month target price of $5.00 per share and Outperform recommendation. We continue to like this name, noting the Company remains in a position of strength through the current downturn, thus being able to continue to capitalize on accretive acquisition opportunities that may arise, while also remaining well positioned to accelerate growth into an improving commodity price environment.
Impact: Positive. Tamarack's 2Q16 financial results featured production (pre-released) and capital spending that were in-line with forecasts, with corresponding cash flow that was ahead of ours and consensus estimates in the period underpinned by initiatives to reduce operating costs in combination with stronger pricing and lower royalty expenses.
Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly reversed into summer, market likely to ignore financials for natural gas producers and look ahead to winter and formalization of sell-side 2018e estimates in coming months. Spot AECO natural gas prices recently crested C$2.60/mcf, and with a reasonable alignment of previously distressed NE BC Stn2 differentials, augmented by a withdrawal expected next week, view the market psyche as constructive and looking ahead, with the analogy that this market is shaping up to mirror 2012 still holding. That said, with crude oil poised to retest support levels, combined with strong stock price performance broadly observed YTD, we would characterize sentiment as slightly pessimistic in the near-term which could reduce or unwind momentum-based investment strategies that have worked thus far in 2016.
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Impact - neutral with 2016e guidance unchanged, while second quarter production volumes and the revised credit facility are in line with expectations
Coming off restriction from our participation in the Company’s latest $81.6 mm equity financing, we update our estimates.Concurrent with the financing, Tamarack announced two strategic acquisitions, further expanding its footprint in the Redwater/Wilson Creek areas, while adding a new core area at Penny in southern Alberta.In light of the acquisitions, Management has put forth updated 2016e guidance factoring in a modest bump to both E&D spending and production volumes given a partial year contribution from the new assets.We have updated our forecast for the acquisitions along with our latest commodity price deck update, leading to a revised target price of $5.00 per share, with implied returns continuing to be supportive of our Outperform ranking.
Tamarack’s first quarter results were in line with expectations, falling within Management’s previously announced guidance for 1H16, with production tracking towards the high end of the range.
slightly positive with the quarterly results largely in line with expectations, while results to date look strong relative to Management's guidance. In addition, first quarter activity included key infrastructure initiatives along with additional tuck-in acquisitions, both of which will set the Company up to continue to create long-term value for shareholders
With this publication we briefly summarize our projections for 1Q16e quarterly results for the Junior E&P (Intermediate, Mid & Small Cap) segments of our coverage universe
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Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd.. We currently have 40 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) reported robust interim results in the context of the H1 2020 backdrop; solid production and the company’s fundamentally low cost base meant that CAML remained profitable despite the sharp pullback in commodity prices during the period which led to a 17% YoY decline in revenue to US$70.8m. Consequently, EBITDA was down 25% YoY to US$42.5m despite a decline in unit costs of 6% YoY at Kounrad and 9% YoY at Sasa to US$0.48/lb and US$0.43/lb respectively which cushioned the impact of the weaker the top line. With no significant one offs in the period, EPS of US$0.10/sh. was 33% lower YoY.
Companies: Central Asia Metals Plc
EQTEC announced (last Friday afternoon) an extension of the exclusivity period of the Billingham MOU until 22 November 2020. The extension of the MOU exclusivity period is with the aim of finishing the preparation of a legally binding option agreement with Scot Bros. which, if agreed, will grant EQTEC and its partners the right, but not the obligation, to purchase the entire issued share capital of Billingham EFW Limited (the project SPV) from Scott Bros. subject to an agreement on consideration and other terms.
Companies: EQTEC Plc
Talitha Shelf Margin Deltaic LKA resource report
Companies: Pantheon Resources Plc
West Newton B-1 drilling update
Companies: Union Jack Oil Plc
Three day CMD to detail how BP will redeploy hydrocarbons’ capital into renewables. The latter are expected to grow by 12% CAGR by 2030, which surely is more exciting than oil. Returns do not compare though, but BP intends to make good use of its trading division to bridge part of the gap. Lowering the dividend took care of the rest. Overall, BP diversifies its risks early, which might prove right if oil stays under $50.
Companies: BP Plc
Trinity has announced a strong set of interim results during a highly volatile period, with production increasing by 9% year-on-year to 3,282bopd (H1/19 3,007bopd). Operating break-even's post hedging in H1/20 reduced to US$22.3/bbl, a 15% year-on-year reduction and a 65% reduction since 2014. Similarly, a relentless drive to improve efficiencies and reduce costs has seen G&A and opex fall by 67% and 65% respectively since 2014. Despite the dramatic fall in oil prices, Trinity's strong production performance combined with its receipt of VAT receivables via a VAT Bond sale and the drawdown of a small working capital facility facilitated cash balances increasing by 43% to US$19.7m from YE2019. Trinity is well positioned to grow both organically and inorganically, with Trinity signing MoU's and submitting EOI's (in consortium with Cairn Energy Plc) to pursue new opportunities of scale. We set our price target a 31p/share, a 248% premium to the current share price and reiterate our BUY recommendation.
Companies: Trinity Exploration & Production Plc
Saudi Arabia's warning to OPEC+ cheaters and short-sellers alike helped oil prices stage their biggest weekly rally since June, despite a grim start to the week as industry heavyweights painted a troubling demand picture for the petroleum complex. Futures in New York rose 10% this week following a show of determination by Saudi Arabia, the most influential nation in the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, to defend the market on Thursday. The Saudis hinted they are prepared for new production cuts, and lambasted OPEC+ members that have cheated on production quotas. Prices briefly fell as much as 1.6% on Friday following an announcement from Libyan military commander Khalifa Haftar that he will allow crude production and exports to resume. But while Haftar reached the agreement with the country's deputy premier, it was unclear whether the deal that excluded the National Oil Co would actually restart exports. Haftar controls most of eastern Libya and has halted operations and shipments from his territory as part of a campaign against the internationally recognised Tripoli government. The OPEC member is pumping just 80,000 barrels a day, but produced 1.2 million a day last year. Oil reversed last week's losses, which pushed West Texas Intermediate futures toward $37 a barrel amid a slew of downbeat demand forecasts from the International Energy Agency to Trafigura Group and BP Plc. Helping support prices this week, US government data showed crude and gasoline stockpiles declining. American oil stockpiles are now at their lowest since April. But crude may not be out of the woods just yet, with distillate supplies at record highs and refining margins for the fuel deteriorating in the US and Europe. Meanwhile, rising coronavirus infections in Europe raise the spectre of a return to tighter restrictions that have crippled consumption. Prices West Texas Intermediate for October delivery rose 14 cents to settle at $41.11 a barrel. Brent for November settlement lost 15 cents to end the session at $43.15 a barrel. The contract rose 8.3% this week, its largest weekly gain since June.
Companies: FO PRP 88E DGOC EME TRIN UOG
Falcon has announced the resumption of activities at Kyalla 117 with the fracture stimulation of the well, and extended production test to follow. Initial results from the production test are expected in Q4/20, with final results expected by the end of Q1/21. Following the farm-down of a 7.5% participating interest to JV partner Origin Energy in April, Falcon is fully funded through the upcoming drilling campaign. We believe success at the Kyalla well will result in the JV further evaluating the potential of the Kyalla liquids rich gas play, thereby fast-tracking the potential commercialisation and monetisation of Falcon's 22.5% working interest. We reiterate our 39p price target (a 406% premium to the current share price) and our BUY recommendation.
Companies: Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd.
UKOG has this morning announced that the Xodus Group has estimated that the Loxley gas field has a best estimate recoverable resource of 44bcf gross and 34 bcf net to UKOG within its 100% held PEDL234 licence. The company has indicated the resource estimate must be proven by future production results and that the development of Loxley is subject to planning consent.
Companies: UK Oil & Gas Plc
Ready to steppe it up – initiating coverage
Companies: Enwell Energy Plc
Hargreaves’ FY20 results are very solid indeed. As previously reported, the only noticeable impact from COVID was in the slippage of Blindwells’ land sales, which were due to conclude during the lockdown period. Site activity has resumed and sales remain on track to conclude in the current year. A final dividend of 4.5p has been declared and the outlook statement is measured but confident. We reintroduce forecasts today, effectively reinstating our pre-COVID expectations. Hargreaves is well positioned to deliver a period of significant, renewed growth with the prospect of a double digit dividend yield from FY22 as HRMS profits are distributed.
Companies: Hargreaves Services Plc
There was less tension this quarter, as Shell had already cut its dividend in Q1. The trading units rose to the occasion, bringing a positive surprise in this horrendous quarter. The company has recorded a very large impairment, and is poised to announce a strategic shift once 2020 is in the books.
Companies: Royal Dutch Shell Plc
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact globally in many areas. While primarily a health issue, it has had wide-ranging implications for stock markets, which have now rallied after the plunge in share prices in mid-March when the full severity of the emerging pandemic became more widely appreciated. Nonetheless, the FTSE 100 Index remains almost 20% off its late February 2020 figure.
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Production Unit licence for Talitha progressed
