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Tamarack Valley reported 2Q19 results which were largely in line with consensus, with production, FFOPS, and capital expenditures reported at 24,090 boe/d, $0.26/sh, and $30.7 mm, respectively, as the company continued to be subject to the ongoing Alberta mandated production curtailments. There was no change to the company’s 2019 guidance, with capital investment of $170-$180 mm still expected to generate production of 23,500-24,500 boe/d and FCF in the realm of $40-$50 mm.
Companies: Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd.
With continued well outperformance in all core areas, production over the last four weeks has crested 25,000 boe/d. Annual and exit 2018e guidance ranges have increased by 500 boe/d to 24,000-24,500 boe/d and 24,500-25,000 boe/d respectively. The capital budget is left unaltered at $223mm - $233 mm. Similarly in 2019e, preliminary guidance grows to 25,500-26,500 boe/d (previously 25,000-26,000 boe/d) and spawns from an unchanged capital program of $222 mm. Tamarack Valley will be added to the
Production in 2Q18 came in at 23,853 boe/d which was slightly ahead of GMP FE , consensus and company forecasts. Strong cash flow of $61.0 mm or $0.26/sh was 3% ahead of the GMP FE estimate and 8% better than the “street”. Field activity was busier than expected with expenditures of $52.7 mm (vs our $35 mm outlook), however even when paired with $8.4 mm of share buy backs, cash flow sufficiently covered the cash outlay in 2Q. 2018 guidance is being increased to 23,500-24,000 boe/d on strong 1
Production in 1Q18 came in at 23,532 boe/d which was slightly ahead of GMP FE, consensus and company forecasts. This was ideally achieved from a capital outlay of ~$72 mm, which was 10% lower than we were forecasting. Strong cash flow of $58.5 mm or $0.25/sh was 10% ahead of GMP FE and street estimates of ~$53 mm or $0.23/sh. Volume growth and lower costs continued to be expected in 2H18 with the 10,000 bbl/d Veteran battery expansion complete and the reactivation of an operated gas plant by t
Despite 4Q17 production being pre-released, the company’s cash flow of $57.6 mm or $0.25/sh handily topped consensus estimates of $0.20/sh and our expectation of $0.22/sh. All delivered through capital expenditures that were more than 20% lower than anticipated. The winter drilling program has been completed ahead of schedule and has led to January/February average volumes of 22,800 boe/d, with 20 more wells to bring onstream. Key to its 1H18 outlook is the corporate liquids contributions incre
Tamarack Valley reported production of 20,541 boe/d for 3Q17, in line with consensus expectations; however, a busy third quarter has boosted volumes to 22,000 boe/d, framing the early achievement of 2017e exit guidance.
Cash flow of $34.8 mm or $0.15/sh topped our outlook of $0.13/sh, but remained in line with consensus expectations.
With forecasted cash flow on the rise, management is accelerating a fraction of its 2018e capital program into 2017e, with increased guidance ranging from
Tamarack’s 2Q16 financial results featured production (pre-released) and capital spending in line with forecasts, with corresponding cash flow that was meaningfully ahead of expectations underpinned by corporate initiatives to reduce operating costs. As a result, the Company’s balance sheet was stronger than anticipated exiting the period, with net debt levels equivalent to a 0.9x run-rate cash flow, or 0.5x its recently reduced $120 mm credit facility (down from $165 mm prior). Our forward view
Impact: Positive. Tamarack's 2Q16 financial results featured production (pre-released) and capital spending that were in-line with forecasts, with corresponding cash flow that was ahead of ours and consensus estimates in the period underpinned by initiatives to reduce operating costs in combination with stronger pricing and lower royalty expenses.
Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly rev
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Impact - neutral with 2016e guidance unchanged, while second quarter production volumes and the revised credit facility are in line with expectations
Coming off restriction from our participation in the Company’s latest $81.6 mm equity financing, we update our estimates.Concurrent with the financing, Tamarack announced two strategic acquisitions, further expanding its footprint in the Redwater/Wilson Creek areas, while adding a new core area at Penny in southern Alberta.In light of the acquisitions, Management has put forth updated 2016e guidance factoring in a modest bump to both E&D spending and production volumes given a partial year contr
Tamarack’s first quarter results were in line with expectations, falling within Management’s previously announced guidance for 1H16, with production tracking towards the high end of the range.
slightly positive with the quarterly results largely in line with expectations, while results to date look strong relative to Management's guidance. In addition, first quarter activity included key infrastructure initiatives along with additional tuck-in acquisitions, both of which will set the Company up to continue to create long-term value for shareholders
With this publication we briefly summarize our projections for 1Q16e quarterly results for the Junior E&P (Intermediate, Mid & Small Cap) segments of our coverage universe
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Falcon's Beetaloo JV partner, Origin Energy has announced its intention to exit all of its upstream exploration permits as part of a strategic decision to focus on cleaner energy and customer solutions. As part of this strategy, Origin has agreed to divest 100% of its interest in the Beetaloo Basin to a JV of Tamboran Resources and Bryan Sheffield for an upfront consideration of A$60m and a 5.5% royalty on future production from Origin's 77.5% working interest. At US$60m the upfront consideratio
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H1 was a mixed half for Bushveld, the continuing strong performance of Vametco offset by unexpected challenges associated with the commissioning and subsequent ramp up of Kiln 3 at Vanchem. The latter has prompted the group to reduce full-year group production guidance (with unit cost expectations increased somewhat), though we still expect positive EBITDA for the full-year and H2 capex and debt repayment obligations look adequately covered. The year-exit production rate target of 5,000-5,400t p
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