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Tamarack Valley reported 2Q19 results which were largely in line with consensus, with production, FFOPS, and capital expenditures reported at 24,090 boe/d, $0.26/sh, and $30.7 mm, respectively, as the company continued to be subject to the ongoing Alberta mandated production curtailments. There was no change to the company’s 2019 guidance, with capital investment of $170-$180 mm still expected to generate production of 23,500-24,500 boe/d and FCF in the realm of $40-$50 mm.
Companies: Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd.
With continued well outperformance in all core areas, production over the last four weeks has crested 25,000 boe/d. Annual and exit 2018e guidance ranges have increased by 500 boe/d to 24,000-24,500 boe/d and 24,500-25,000 boe/d respectively. The capital budget is left unaltered at $223mm - $233 mm. Similarly in 2019e, preliminary guidance grows to 25,500-26,500 boe/d (previously 25,000-26,000 boe/d) and spawns from an unchanged capital program of $222 mm. Tamarack Valley will be added to the
Production in 2Q18 came in at 23,853 boe/d which was slightly ahead of GMP FE , consensus and company forecasts. Strong cash flow of $61.0 mm or $0.26/sh was 3% ahead of the GMP FE estimate and 8% better than the “street”. Field activity was busier than expected with expenditures of $52.7 mm (vs our $35 mm outlook), however even when paired with $8.4 mm of share buy backs, cash flow sufficiently covered the cash outlay in 2Q. 2018 guidance is being increased to 23,500-24,000 boe/d on strong 1
Production in 1Q18 came in at 23,532 boe/d which was slightly ahead of GMP FE, consensus and company forecasts. This was ideally achieved from a capital outlay of ~$72 mm, which was 10% lower than we were forecasting. Strong cash flow of $58.5 mm or $0.25/sh was 10% ahead of GMP FE and street estimates of ~$53 mm or $0.23/sh. Volume growth and lower costs continued to be expected in 2H18 with the 10,000 bbl/d Veteran battery expansion complete and the reactivation of an operated gas plant by t
Despite 4Q17 production being pre-released, the company’s cash flow of $57.6 mm or $0.25/sh handily topped consensus estimates of $0.20/sh and our expectation of $0.22/sh. All delivered through capital expenditures that were more than 20% lower than anticipated. The winter drilling program has been completed ahead of schedule and has led to January/February average volumes of 22,800 boe/d, with 20 more wells to bring onstream. Key to its 1H18 outlook is the corporate liquids contributions incre
Tamarack Valley reported production of 20,541 boe/d for 3Q17, in line with consensus expectations; however, a busy third quarter has boosted volumes to 22,000 boe/d, framing the early achievement of 2017e exit guidance.
Cash flow of $34.8 mm or $0.15/sh topped our outlook of $0.13/sh, but remained in line with consensus expectations.
With forecasted cash flow on the rise, management is accelerating a fraction of its 2018e capital program into 2017e, with increased guidance ranging from
Tamarack’s 2Q16 financial results featured production (pre-released) and capital spending in line with forecasts, with corresponding cash flow that was meaningfully ahead of expectations underpinned by corporate initiatives to reduce operating costs. As a result, the Company’s balance sheet was stronger than anticipated exiting the period, with net debt levels equivalent to a 0.9x run-rate cash flow, or 0.5x its recently reduced $120 mm credit facility (down from $165 mm prior). Our forward view
Impact: Positive. Tamarack's 2Q16 financial results featured production (pre-released) and capital spending that were in-line with forecasts, with corresponding cash flow that was ahead of ours and consensus estimates in the period underpinned by initiatives to reduce operating costs in combination with stronger pricing and lower royalty expenses.
Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly rev
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Impact - neutral with 2016e guidance unchanged, while second quarter production volumes and the revised credit facility are in line with expectations
Coming off restriction from our participation in the Company’s latest $81.6 mm equity financing, we update our estimates.Concurrent with the financing, Tamarack announced two strategic acquisitions, further expanding its footprint in the Redwater/Wilson Creek areas, while adding a new core area at Penny in southern Alberta.In light of the acquisitions, Management has put forth updated 2016e guidance factoring in a modest bump to both E&D spending and production volumes given a partial year contr
Tamarack’s first quarter results were in line with expectations, falling within Management’s previously announced guidance for 1H16, with production tracking towards the high end of the range.
slightly positive with the quarterly results largely in line with expectations, while results to date look strong relative to Management's guidance. In addition, first quarter activity included key infrastructure initiatives along with additional tuck-in acquisitions, both of which will set the Company up to continue to create long-term value for shareholders
With this publication we briefly summarize our projections for 1Q16e quarterly results for the Junior E&P (Intermediate, Mid & Small Cap) segments of our coverage universe
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Following the announcement of test results for all three zones at Royston, where we now see a compelling oil development opportunity, we have revisited our FY21F and FY22F estimates for Touchstone and introduce numbers for FY23F. Our forecasts for the financial year just ended are not materially changed (certainly in revenue and net profit terms) – with Touchstone’s results for the nine months to September having previously indicated that it was tracking reasonably well against our estimates for
Companies: Touchstone Exploration Inc
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Companies: Sylvania Platinum Ltd.
Companies: Shanta Gold Limited
Pantheon Resources announced that it has commenced drilling the Theta West #1 well, which has now drilled to a depth of 1,874 feet – target depth is circa 9,200 feet. The well is targeting i) the Upper Basin Floor Fan and ii) the Lower Basin floor fan, both of which are referred to as Theta West. Theta West has a combined best estimate success-case recoverable resource of 1.4 billion barrels of oil.
Companies: Pantheon Resources plc
Savannah’s FY21 trading update demonstrates continued progress at its Nigerian operations, with strong growth in gas volumes, revenues ahead of guidance, robust cost controls and net debt levels declining. This should be encouraging for investors as Savannah expands its sphere of operations and looks to deliver growth on multiple fronts – the recently announced Chad/Cameroon acquisitions are highly accretive and set to more than double the scale of the company’s operations, while additional grow
Companies: Savannah Energy Plc
As part of the Stage 3 work programme, Falcon Oil & Gas has confirmed that it will embark on a fully-funded, high-impact, extensive work programme in 2022. The Company will drill, fracture stimulate and test two 2,000m+ horizontal wells, with the aim of providing line of sight to the commercialisation of the Beetaloo. The programme will focus on the Amungee Member B shale, following the successful production log test in 2021, which suggested a normalised gas flow rate of 5.2-5.8MMscf/d per 1,000
Companies: Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd.
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Rutherford Health has left the AQSE and Prime People has left AIM.
What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?
ACP Energy plc, a company formed for the purpose of undertaking an acquisition or acquisitions of a majority interest in a company, business or asset, seeking to join the Main Market (Standard) The Company intends to focus on opportunities in the natural resources sector, raising gross proceeds of £830k. Due 28 Jan.
Artemis Resources ltd, an ASX listed mining
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Initiating Coverage: Price Target 20p
Potential Beyond Tin
AfriTin Mining Limited (ATM) is one of only three listed tin producers in Western markets. It has a large (820km2) land package in Namibia comprising 5 prospective licenses of which the Uis mine is the most advanced and already in production. Near term growth is being delivered with an 80% increase in tin production between 2022 and 2024. However, this is only scratching the surface and there are more than conceptual plans being fo
Companies: AfriTin Mining Ltd.
West Newton potential flow rate analysis
Companies: Union Jack Oil Plc
• Oil production has been averaging ~20,000 bb/d since January 12, 2022 with export routes, including the Northern Peruvian Pipeline, fully functional. From 16/12/2021 until 12/01/2022, production was constrained to ~5 mbbl/d to manage storage capacity and barge availability due to pump station 1 bottlenecks. This resulted in 4Q21 production of 10,147 bbl/d, below our expectations of 11,500 bbl/d. All these issues have now been resolved.
• The 8H and 9H wells continue to perform very well with p
Companies: PetroTal Corp.
Companies: Atlantic Lithium Limited.
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Sumo Group has left AIM following a takeover.
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Unbound Group PLC, (currently called Electra Private Equity PLC) to join AIM. Unbound Group, will be the parent company for a range of brands focused on the 55 plus demographic. Initially focused on Hotter Shoes, Unbound's curated, multi-brand retail platform will offer additional products and services that will enhance the enjoyment and wellbeing of its targeted customer communit
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Hercules Site Services a technology enabled labour supply company for the UK infrastructure sector, intends to float on AIM. Hercules is seeking to raise approximately £5.5m to rapidly deliver on the significant demand it is experiencing for its diverse range of services across the UK infrastructure sector, including to scale up its operations to supply labour to the northern section of the HS2 rail project
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Caspian Sunrise announced (at 7:48AM) that its newly drilled deep well, Deep Well A8, on the Airshagyl structure produced from the first of three intervals planned for testing at a rate of 120 b/d of oil for several days.
Companies: Caspian Sunrise PLC