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Gibson Energy (GEI-TSX); BUY, C$30.00 | Tourmaline Oil (TOU-TSX); BUY, C$25.00
Companies: Gibson Energy Inc. (GEI:TSE)Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU:TSE)
Tourmaline announced second quarter financial and operating results that were slightly below our forecast, though trailed consensus markedly, noting, however, that these numbers had been walked down in recent weeks (CFPS $0.83 actual vs $0.87 GMPFE vs. $1.00 consensus). Recall, Tourmaline retooled its 5-year outlook, one which further prioritizes liquids growth relative to dry gas projects, the result of which sees FCF increase a reported $840 mm over five years in step with increased netbacks a
Companies: Tourmaline Oil Corp.
The report in isolation is positive in terms of reinforcing some very solid aspects of the company, though there is not a lot of new information for the market. Fourth quarter financial and operating results were largely pre-released, with CFPS $1.44 vs. GMPFE $1.40 vs. consensus $1.41. Tourmaline achieved solid growth of +7% PPS DDA y/y, though 2019e is a pivotal year with +16% anticipated ahead.
Overall the report is strong, akin to the one it delivered last year, though not quite the +500 mmboe addition as seen in 2017. Hence, in isolation, we view this report as supportive for the stock, though we believe the market is attenuated to near-term (1-2 year) delivery of growth/returns within existing capital structures and without undertaking undue leverage as one of the principal focal points over and above a reserve/NAV platform currently. On this basis, nothing has changed for Tourmalin
Tourmaline anticipates achieving 300,000 boe/d in 2019e on $1.225 billion of invested capital, citing fewer delineation wells required to reach its targets (implying stronger well deliverability) and lower completion costs expected ahead.
Tourmaline reported fourth quarter financial and operating results which were largely in line with our forecast, though we note discrepancies between our physical and financial hedges, as compared to the company’s, on the initial rollout of our diversified natural gas market pricing model a few months ago. With this update, Tourmaline has left their 2018e capital investment guidance unchanged at ~$1.1 billion to achieve production of 270,000- 280,000 boe/d. However, the company previously intima
Tourmaline announced that it surpassed its original 2017 exit production target of 270,000 boe/d on December 1, 2017. With production currently averaging 277,000 boe/d, and further EP activities slated for mid-December, exit volumes are now expected to exceed 280,000 boe/d for fiscal 2017. Tourmaline notes that it has approximately 42,500 boe/d behind pipe with 41 DUC wells to be completed in 1H18e.
Tourmaline released second quarter financial and operating results that were in line with our forecast, characterized by another period of sequential unit cost reductions, and augmented by lower E&D capital investment, the latter while a traditional hallmark of second quarter results, nonetheless affirms our view that Tourmaline will demonstrate industry leading capital efficiencies ahead. There are no material changes to our 2016e forecast. We are increasing our 2017e volume forecast, now in li
Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly rev
Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PWT PSK VII TOU VET WCP BNE CJ CR DEE JOY KEL LTS NVA PPY PNE RRX RMP SRX SGY TET ATU CKE GXE IKM LXE MQL PRQ SPE SKX TVE TVETF YO
With this publication we highlight forecast revisions associated with our commodity price update (Natural Gas Update; Crude Oil Update), reaffirming a view of commodity price recovery in 2017e. In the interim until then, 2016e Canadian oil price realizations are up ~11% in the synthetic and Edmonton Light streams, with heavy WCS crude up ~20% which is amplified by Canadian oilsands output curtailments. While 2016e Canadian natural gas prices are projected to be ~20% lower, we expect much of this
Companies: ARX CPG ERF TOU POU CJ PPY SRX LXE
Tourmaline has lowered its 2016e production guidance by ~4% at the mid-point as a result of third party infrastructure issues and deferral of well completions due to low gas prices. We’ve adjusted our 2016e production outlook to the higher end of the revised range, which results in a 3% reduction to cash flow for the year. Our 2017e outlook is unchanged and remains conservatively below Management guidance. We have modestly reduced our 12-month target price to $43.50 per share (from $43.75 per
Tourmaline released first quarter financial and operating results that were ahead of forecast. While CFO was materially ahead of expectations, the Company’s E&D capital investment in the period was substantially below our expectations, and we believe the market will see capital discipline as positive in the subsequent trading sessions, all else equal. We have increased our 12-month target price to $43.75/sh. We rank the stock as an Outperform and would invest at current levels.
With this publication we briefly summarize our projections for 1Q16e quarterly results for the Junior E&P (Intermediate, Mid & Small Cap) segments of our coverage universe
Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PSK VII TOU VET WCP BNE CJ CR DEE JOY KEL LTS LRE NVA PPY PNE RRX RMP SRX SGY TET ATU CKE GXE IKM LXE ROAOF MQL RE SPE SKX TVE TVETF YGR YO
Post restriction following our participation in Tourmaline’s $280.6 mm financing, issuing 10.350 mm shares at $27.11/share, and complemented by an insider take-up over above the bought deal, we update our forecast with no significant moves to volume growth projections or revenue/cost input assumptions. There are no changes to our 12-month target price of $42.50/share or Outperform ranking. We would invest in this management team at current price levels and continue to recommend accumulating shar
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Given the stellar performance of PGM prices, it is no surprise that Sylvania have achieved another record quarter with EBITDA of $58.7m and cash balance increasing 52% to $102.1m. Annualising this past quarter, the stock trades on a ridiculously cheap EV/EBITDA of 1.5x. Production of 17.4koz was inline with expectations and guidance of 70koz for the year remains in place. We remain very comfortable on rhodium on a five-year view (see here) and expect the abnormal cashflows to continue (30% FY22
Companies: Sylvania Platinum Ltd.
Semper Fortis Esports* recently announced its intention to IPO onto the Access Segment of the Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market. Semper is a multi-operational Esports organisation focusing on gaming technology solutions, brand enhancement and high growth team infrastructures. The company plans to raise £2.5m to develop their three core areas of establishing an esports team, forming partnerships with brands for sponsorship and B2B consultancy services. The Board are highly experienced in spor
Companies: ADME RTC SAV DFCH HUW TEG ANIC KOO MIRI SPSY
InfraStrata has conditionally raised £10.3m in a placing (with potential for up to a further £4.1m through an open offer) to support delivery of a transformational £26.5m fabrication contract with Saipem. This project validates management's vision for the company, and paves the way for future fabrication contracts. With the substantial pipeline of opportunities being targeted (c£1.7bn), alignment to structural growth drivers that are underpinned by government policy, and the credibility provided
Companies: InfraStrata plc
Full year 2020 results
Companies: Jersey Oil & Gas PLC
Following on from our previous report we wanted to explore the potential value of the Jade, Topaz and Pearl prospects in the event of success. We explore a potential three stage approach to the drilling of the three identified prospects within Block 29/11. Phase 1 involves success at Jade, which in the event of a commercial discovery would see our risked valuation of Jade increase from 9.7p to 41.2p. Phase 2 involves success at Topaz, which in the event of a commercial discovery would see our ri
Companies: Empyrean Energy PLC
The UK market showed a continued recovery in the first quarter albeit the indices are still well short of their all-time peaks, unlike many of their international peers. The FTSE 100 has risen by 1,186 points (21.4%) since the end of October and the FTSE 250 by 4,304 points (25.0%). The comparable performance since the start of the year is less spectacular- the FTSE 100 has risen by 253 points (3.9%) and the FTSE 250 has risen by 1,070 points (5.0%). The factors behind the sustained rally are fa
Companies: AMYT ARBB BPC BAG BVC BEG BONH BLVN BRSD CML CWK CRPR EYE ECHO FDM FAR FA/ GPH GSF HUW INSE JDG KAPE KP2 MACF MPAC MNZS NESF NBI OTMP OBD PREM QFI RUA SCS SEN SOS SUR TON TOU TXP TGL TCN UEM VLS WYN
Bacanora Lithium (BCN LN) – Potential offer from Ganfeng
Lucara Diamonds (LUC CN) – Reports healthiest diamond market for 5 years
Pasofino Gold (VEIN CN) – C$9m equity raise
Power Metal Resources* (POW LN) – New corporate presentation
Rambler Metals and Mining* (RMM LN) – 2021 Q1 results and progress of recovery plan
Rio Tinto (RIO LN) – Battery-grade lithium produced at California plant
Companies: LUC VEIN BCN POW RMM RIO
Thor Mining (Thor) provides investors with exposure to a wide range of commodities in two safe jurisdictions (the USA and Australia). We see Thor's priority projects as its In-situ Recovery (ISR) projects in South Australia and its shovel-ready Molyhil tungsten project in Northern Territory. Short term, we expect news from exploration and drilling at its Ragged Range gold project in Western Australia and drilling in its uranium projects in Colorado – either of which could be transformational f
Companies: Thor Mining PLC
• The 7D well has been put on production at 3,700 bbl/d during the first 10 days of production and has averaged 4,550 bbl/d during the past three days. The well took only 33 days to drill at a cost of US$8.6 mm (7% below the US$9.2 mm estimate).
• During the last three days, Bretana oil field production has averaged approximately 11,100 bbl/d. Two wells, representing 1,200 bbl/d, are currently shut in awaiting increased water injection pump enhancements, suggesting an overall well production ca
Companies: PetroTal Corp.
Q1 2021 results
Companies: Serinus Energy plc
The publication of Jersey's Final Results and Annual Report today were in line with prior guidance and our expectations. Having reviewed the detail of the report we confirm our 622p fair value estimate for the company (no change). We take the opportunity to assess the Annual Report to draw out themes that further develop the company's RNS announcements.
European Metals Holdings (EMH) yesterday provided a further update on its resource drilling programme at Cinovec; the nineteen hole drill program is to define blocks of resource for the first 5 years of mining within the Cinovec-South area and to convert the resource from Indicated to the Measured category. Seventeen holes have been completed with results reported by EMH to be in line, or better, than modelled. Of the six holes reported today, there were some intercepting significant tin miner
Companies: European Metals Holdings Limited
Oil posted a gain this week as expectations for growing economic activity in nations from the US to Europe fuelled optimism around stronger summer demand. Futures in New York advanced 2.1% this week in the first back-to-back weekly increase since early March. Fuel sales in the UK rose to the highest since the pandemic again, and in the US, refineries are running at their highest rate since the pandemic began as they gear up for the summer driving season.
Crude's advance this week comes amid s
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Canyon Resources (CAY AU) – Minim Martap bauxite project mineral resource upgrade (Altus Strategies is invested in Canyon Resources)
Marvel Gold (MVL AU) A$0.05, Mkt Cap A$27m – Chilalo Graphite Project spin out (Altus Strategies holds a JV agreement with Marvel Gold)
Metal Tiger (MTR LN) – Drilling Commenced at KML copper project
Serabi Gold* (SRB LN) – Drilling confirms lateral and depth extensions to mineralisation at Palito
Companies: ALS SRB MTR CAY MVL
MAST Energy Developments (MED) is to IPO on the Standard List on 14th April 2021 under the ticker MAST. The company has raised £5m giving a market capitalisation on listing of c. £23m. MED is currently a 100% subsidiary company of AIM quoted, Kibo Energy*. MED was established to acquire and develop a portfolio of flexible power plants in the UK and become a multi-asset operator in the rapidly growing Reserve Power market. PensionBee has confirmed its intention to float on the High Growth Se
Companies: SYM CGNR EKF KBT GGP VLS TMO ECK B90 MDZ