AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 04/10/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price A$0.75 per share: Welchau is about oil rather than gas: perhaps smaller but higher value boe – Welchau is now interpreted as a light oil rather than a gas condensate discovery based on detailed analysis of samples recovered from the well and other well data. While this means that the energy equivalent hydrocarbon volumes may be smaller than the original pre-drill estimates, onshore oil can be more val

Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Another strong quarter

• 3Q24 production was 22.2 mbbl/d. This is well above our conservative forecast of 20.4 mbbl/d that incorporated more provisions for downtime and steeper declines. All the assets appear to be performing very well. • Production in September was 26.4 mbbl/d. This is above the already high rate of 26.2 mbbl/d announced at the end of August. • Valeura held US$156 mm in cash at the end of September. This was very close to our forecast of US$162 mm. However, the 3Q24 revenue and cash position at the e

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 30/08/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price £0.70 per share: Key horizontal wells outperforms expectations – Arrow has now drilled 3 horizontal wells in Carrizales Norte. The flow rates of the wells are exceeding our expectations. The first CN horizontal well (CNB HZ-1) is being restricted to a current oil flow rate of 2,090 bbl/d with approximately 41% water cut. The average oil production for the first 60 days of production was 2,37

Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Production guidance re-iterated but lower capex and additional resources

High production • Net production at Nong Yao has reached a stable level of ~12.1 mbbl/d. This compares with 6.3 mbbl/d in 2Q24. • This production, when combined with the Wassana field being back online, has resulted in stable aggregate WI oil production over the past week of 26.2 mbbl/d. We are assuming only 20.4 mbbl/d for 3Q24, which might be too conservative. • Valeura plans to maintain production at ~25 mbbl/d for at least the next four months. We are forecasting 24.8 mbbl/d production in 4Q

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 16/08/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C; Target price C$0.35 per share: New drilling expected to start in September – A drilling rig is scheduled to be mobilized to site in August. The two-well infill program, targeting a previously undrilled section of the MGH Field, is anticipated to commence in early September with the wells expected to come on production in early November at a forecasted combined rate of 300 bbl/d. While this is a bit later tha

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 09/08/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target price NOK52 per share: All eyes on EG – 1H24 production was 9,168 bbl/d. EG and Gabon production had already been disclosed. 1H24 production in Tunisia was 1,670 bbl/d (we forecasted 1,760 bbl/d) given subdued activities. In EG, the first infill well encountered the primary and secondary reservoirs in line with expectations. Production is expected to begin early September. The second infill well is expec

Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Production guidance re-iterated but lower capex and additional resources

• The 2Q24 production and the cash position at the end of June had previously been reported. • Development drilling at Nong Yao C has been completed with the 6 development wells encountering the reservoirs in line with expectations. One appraisal well was successful and will be converted into a seventh production well. First production is expected later in August. Two of the development wells also encountered appraisal target; which could derisks potential future infill drilling and add some res

Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Wassana production restart

• Through advanced underwater inspection, including magnetic particle inspection, Valeura has concluded that the observed anomaly (a crack within a weld) on the Wassana MOPU is superficial, and accordingly does not constitute a risk to the structural integrity of the facility. • Valeura has begun the process of restarting production operations and anticipates achieving pre-suspension oil production rates of ~5,000 bbl/d within a week. • Valeura is looking to accelerate the redevelopment of the

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 02/08/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target of A$0.75 per share: Reflections on Welchau – IIndependent consultants have calculated that each of the three reservoirs encountered at Welchau (Reifling - 128 metres, Steinalm -118 metres and the Guttenstein - 111 metres) are hydrocarbon bearing with uncertainty on the hydrocarbon type. Laboratory work on the Steinalm reservoir has confirmed the full properties ofthe 43° API light sweet oil that was recove

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 12/07/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ PetroTal (PTAL LN/CN)C; Target price of £1.50 per share: Unrestricted cash position increased by >30% during the last quarter – 2Q24 production of 18,290 bbl/d was very near our forecasts of 18.5 mbbl/d but marginally below the company target of ~19 mbbl/d. A brief river blockade impacted production but production in June was 20,555 bbl/d. All regulatory approvals for the pilot to sell 100 mbbl of production through Ecuador have now be

Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Operational blip offers an opportunity for investors

• • 2Q24 production was 21.1 mbbl/d, which was very close to our expectations (21.3 mbbl/d). • Production is expected to increase in 3Q24 with the start-up of production at Nong Yao C. Half of the planned drilling targets have already been drilled. • At Wassana, the crack within a weld on one of MOPU’s three steel legs may be superficial and therefore may not indicate a risk to the structural integrity of the MOPU. If the upcoming underwater inspection confirms this view, production could restar

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 28/06/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Chariot (CHAR LN)C: target price of £0.50 per share: Key step towards developing future gas to industry business onshore Morocco – Chariot has signed Heads of Terms with Vivo Energy for the future offtake from the Loukos onshore licence where natural gas has been encountered at Dartois. Up to 3 mmcf/d would be initially sold to the CNG midstream business under a long-term gas sales agreement. Vivo intends to design, fund, construct and

Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Operational blip offers an opportunity for investors

• Production at Wassana has been suspended following the discovery of a crack within one of the MOPU’s steel jack-up legs that could pose a risk to the structural integrity of the MOPU. • The company is conducting further inspections and analysis to plan next steps. Further visibility is expected in the coming weeks. • Pending further details, we are assuming no production at Wassana during 2H24 (~4 mbbl/d previously). • We are also reducing our opex forecast for 2H24 by US$12 mm (50% of US$24 m

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 31/05/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/AXL CN)C; target price of £0.65 per share: All eyes on the first horizontal well at Carrizales Norte – The 1Q24 production of 2,730 boe/d was close to our expectations. Arrow’s cash position of US$11.6 mm was also in line. The first water disposal well at RCE is being brought into production and the conversion of the CN-4 well is currently waiting regulatory approval. These two disposal wells are very importa

Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Drilling success likely to add further resources

• Two wells recently drilled at Nong Yao are likely to add some reserves. • The 37H development well has been put on production from the primary reservoir at an initial flow rate of ~500 bbl/d net to Valeura’s WI. The well has also encountered 68 feet of net oil pay across eight separate appraisal target intervals. The volumes associated with these zones were not included in either the reserves or contingent resources categories and will now be further evaluated as targets for potential future

Pantheon Resources (PANR LN) - Comprehensive Update Note

Pantheon Resources anticipates commencing drilling operations at Megrez-1 in early November, with drilling operations expected to take approximately one month to reach total depth. We believe that Megrez-1 is by far the most exciting well ever drilled by Pantheon Resources due to our high confidence that the reservoir of the targeted Ahpun East Topsets (609 million barrels of prospective recoverable best estimate resources) will be of an exceptionally high quality – success would unlock correspo

Morning Note – 7 October 2024

Gulf Marine Services (GMS LN) - Contract awards

GMS has announced several new contract awards, including a new long-term contract to support offshore wind construction in Europe, all further growing the company’s backlog.

Afentra - Off to the races

Following the successful completion of Afentra’s third acquisition in Angola, the company now holds a meaningful 30% non-operated interest in producing Block 3/05 and a 21.33% non-operated interest in development ready Block 3/05A. The result is a significant new African independent company, with c6,700bopd of production and 52mmbbls of 2P+2C reserves and resources, backed by material cash flow and a strong balance sheet. With a portfolio of both near-term, low-cost, short-cycle growth opportuni

PetroTal (PTAL LN) - Q3 operations update

PetroTal has released its Q3 operations update, reporting a strong production performance and expectation of being towards the top end of full year 2024 production guidance. Development drilling at Bretana continues, the Block 131 acquisition is nearing completion, and there is also an update on the test exports via Ecuador.

Power Metal Resources* (POW LN) – FLASH NOTE - Incubation Strategy Success Continues with Uranium JV

PetroTal Corp (AIM: PTAL): Production and cash well above expectations

• 3Q24 production was 15,160 bbl/d. This is well above expectations of 13 mbbl/d. While the river levels were at record lows, PetroTal has maximized the barge fleet capacity during the quarter. • Production during the first week of October was 10.7 mbbl/d. With the end of the dry season in sight, production is expected to return to capacity by mid-November, • As a result, FY24 production is expected to be at the top end of the 16.5-17.5 mbbl/d guidance. • Petrotal held US$133 mm in cash (US$121

Jubilee Metals (JLP LN) - Audited results for FY24 (June)

Jubilee today announces its audited results for FY24 which ended in June. Revenues rose to $205.4m from $170.9m in FY2023 (Zeus estimate was $208.8m). Group EBITDA fell to $27.7m from $29.8m (Zeus $26.6m) with eps falling from 0.58c/sh to 0.21c/sh (0.3c/sh). Capex fell to $36.9m from $65.9m with gross cash at the end of the period at $19.3m from $15.9m at the end of June 2023. Chrome is now poised to take on more of a roll in operating cash flow and profits as the Thule plants are brought on str

Oil & Gas - Cavendish sector note

Savannah Energy, Empyrean Energy, Seascape Energy Asia, Touchstone Exploration, Petrofac, Capricorn Energy, Challenger Energy, Block Energy, Enwell Energy, SDX Energy, Petro Matad, Serica Energy, TotalEnergies, Valeura Energy Source: FactSet, weekly change 30/09/2024-04/10/2024 Oil pared gains after President Joe Biden sought to discourage Israel from attacking Iran’s oil fields. West Texas Intermediate rose 0.9% to settle above $74 a barrel on Friday, after earlier surging as much as 2.5%. Crud

Ango Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) - FLASH NOTE - Gedabek is ready to restart with Demirli to upgrade growth profile

Coringa PEA

Zephyr Energy Plc (AIM: ZPHR): Paradox well to be lengthened. Potential funding by industry partner provides external validation

• Zephyr has decided to extend the State 36-2R well in the Paradox basin by drilling a 5,500 ft lateral on the well. • We are not surprised by this decision given that the acid job performed on the existing 130 ft interval was very successful with peak test production of >2,100 boe/d. • Zephyr believes that the ultimate recovery of the extended well could reach 2 mmboe, which is well above what would have been recovered from the 130 ft interval. • The 5,500 ft lateral is expected to cost ~US$7

Allenby Capital: Panthera Resources - Update

GreenX Metals (GRX:ASX/LSE) has recently announced the successful conclusion of litigation relating to an international arbitration claim against the Republic of Poland under the Australia-Poland Bilateral Investment and Energy Charter Treaties. The compensation awarded by a tribunal of £252m followed a well-established procedure under the auspices of the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law Rules (UNCITRAL) rules. The original claim brought by GreenX related to actions by the Po

SP Angel Morning View: Open season on Mining M&A as Rio Tinto takes out Arcadium

Morning Note – 30 September 2024