Vermilion Energy - Termination of coverage

Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on Diversified Gas & Oil (DGOC), Vermilion Energy (VET) and Circle Property (CRC). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for these companies. All forecasts should now be considered redundant.

Vermilion Energy - Back to basics

Vermilion Energy’s geographically diverse portfolio spreads geopolitical and pricing risk across different economies. The company has grown both organically and inorganically, and has delivered on environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) objectives, being highly rated across multiple ESG rating platforms. Notwithstanding this, Vermilion has been affected by COVID-19 and has had to reassess its strategy on cash returns to shareholders. The board suspended the dividend, appointed Loren

Vermilion Energy - Dividend suspended to protect balance sheet

Vermilion Energy recently reported Q120 production of 97.2kboed and fund flows from operations of C$170m. Even though the company has not observed a direct impact on its operations from COVID-19, results were already affected by the pandemic effects on global energy demand and current low commodity prices. In March, the board reduced the monthly dividend by 50% to C$0.115/share and announced a C$80–100m reduction to the annual capital budget. Subsequently, Vermilion suspended the monthly dividen

Vermilion Energy - Macroeconomic headwinds dictate dividend cuts

Vermilion Energy has recently reported record annual production of 100.3kboed and fund flows from operations (FFO) of C$908m for FY19. Key drivers to increased production include a full-year contribution from the Spartan assets acquired in May 2018. However, following recent macroeconomic headwinds such as the impact of the coronavirus and the Russia/Saudi Arabia price war, Vermilion updated its capex guidance and production estimates for the year. These significantly affect results; hence manag

Vermilion Energy - 14% dividend yield and FY20 growth covered

Vermilion Energy’s geographically diverse portfolio spreads geopolitical and pricing risk across different economies. The company has grown both organically and inorganically through a series of new country entries, with a solid track record of hitting guidance targets. Additionally, management has delivered on environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) objectives, being highly rated across multiple ESG rating platforms. Notwithstanding this, Vermilion has been affected by the current

Reducing estimates on lower capex post 2019

VET’s Q2 FFO and production came in slightly below consensus, primarily owing to weaker oil production in France caused by downtime at a nearby refinery, and timing of its Australian oil sales. Strong test rates were reported from VET’s first operated exploration wells in Germany (8.8 mmcf/d restricted) and Croatia (15.0 mmcf/d), while test results from 4x new wells in Hungary were mixed. VET has also expanded its European presence again, signing contracts for 50% WI stakes in 580k acres in Ukra

Vermilion Energy - Q219 FFO 4.8% below consensus

Vermilion has reported Q219 FFO (fund flows from operations) of C$222.7m, 4.8% below consensus of C$233.8m and 8.2% below our forecast of C$242.5m despite a 14% increase in FFO y-o-y. Key drivers of the miss versus our forecast include reduced production in France due to a refinery outage which had a post-tax FFO impact of C$11m and an inventory build in Australia which had an impact of C$8m. At 103.0kboed, production was 1.2% ahead of our forecast despite the outage in France, driven by new wel

Vermilion Energy - Dividend and growth comfortably covered

Vermilion Energy offers a geographically diverse production base, the ability to fund an 8.1% dividend yield and a forecast FY19 c C$530m capital programme, all achievable even at realised commodity prices c 3% below our base case (WTI US$56.1/bbl, Brent US$62.8/bbl). We adjust our FY19 and FY20 forecasts to reflect lower short-term commodity price expectations (based on the latest EIA forecasts of 12 March 2019). EIA’s FY19 WTI moves from US$64.9/bbl to US$56.1/bbl (-14%), driving down our fore

Vermilion Energy - Q418 FFO 6.7% ahead of consensus

Vermilion has reported Q418 FFO of C$222.3m, 6.7% ahead of consensus C$208.3m and in line with our estimate of C$222.2m. At 101.6kboed, production was 2.7% ahead of our forecasts, with FFO/share 1.1% ahead at C$1.46/share. Guidance for 2019 production of 101–106kboed (with the mid-point implying 19% y-o-y growth) and the capex budget of C$530m remain unchanged. ROCE in 2018 was 9% compared to a five-year average of 4%. Our last published valuation was C$54.5/share, based on a blend of FY19 P/CF,

Vermilion Energy - 8.2% dividend yield secure at strip

Vermilion’s investor day highlighted its self-funded growth and income business model. Management’s commitment to providing shareholders a sustainable dividend is supported by a deep and diverse portfolio of assets resilient to a volatile commodity price environment. Project inventory supports a recycle ratio of over 2.5 times and the short-cycle nature of growth capex means spend can be rapidly diverted to projects that offer the highest returns or are curtailed. Our base case valuation falls t

Vermilion Energy - Q2 FFO in line; oil price upgrade drives valuation

Vermilion Energy (VET) reported Q2 fund flows from operations (FFO) of C$193m, in line with consensus estimates and a 23% increase q-o-q. The acquisition of Spartan drove a 15% q-o-q increase in production to 80.6kboed, c 1% ahead of consensus, which includes volumes from Spartan after close of the C$1.4bn acquisition on 28 May 2018. We increase our expectations for FY18 FFO from C$887m to C$946m (+7%) and FY19 FFO from C$1,104m to C$1,208m (+9%), reflecting higher oil price expectations for H21

2Q18 results in line with expectations and 2018 capital program accelerated

Vermilion reported 2Q18 production of 80,625 boe/d and cash flow of C$193 mm, which was in line with expectations. The company closed the Spartan Energy acquisition in 2Q18.

Vermilion closes Spartan acquisition; a steal of a deal

Vermilion’s acquisition of Spartan Energy has closed, and as such, we are off research restriction. We view the acquisition favourably noting that Vermilion was able to add another strong asset that can generate free cash flow to its portfolio. The Spartan acquisition satisfies Vermilion’s production and dividend growth model. The Spartan acquisition is immediately accretive to Vermilion with cash flow per share growth of 4% in 2018e (seven months of the year) and 12% in 2019e. With the acquisit

Vermilion Energy - Spartan - a value-accretive transaction

On 16 April 2018 Vermilion announced the proposed acquisition of Spartan Energy, a south-east Saskatchewan producer with estimated 2018 production of c 23kboed (91% oil) for a consideration of C$1.4bn, funded through C$1.23bn in Vermilion shares and the assumption of c C$175m of debt. The deal was priced at a 5% premium to Spartan’s closing price and is recommended by its board. In this note we incorporate Spartan’s asset base into our Vermilion forecasts and valuation based on the planned 15 Ju

SHORE CAPITAL - SAVANNAH ENERGY+ (SAVE, 38p, Under Review) – Agreement in Chad for new renewable energy projects

IOG - Forecast and valuation update

Forecast and valuation update

SHORE CAPITAL - SAVANNAH ENERGY+ (SAVE, 40p, Under Review) – FY21 results; completion of Chad-Cameroon entry expected in Q3

Pantheon Resources (PANR) - Significant Increase in Fair Value Estimate

We are increasing our fair value estimate for Pantheon Resources to 208p, from under review (previously 184p). The change reflects what we believe was an unambiguously positive winter drilling campaign. This full note details the background analysis to the change in estimate of fair value, which includes a valuation table and an assessment of the forthcoming Alkaid#2 well.

Exceptional transformation… and it may be just a beginning

With several opportunistic but timely acquisitions in 2021, coupled with the recent surge in the oil price, Zenith Energy has, in our view, completely transformed itself and its value proposition to investors. While for various reasons it has not been easy for the market to fully recognise and reward this transformation, we expect 1) doubling production, 2) further strengthening of its balance sheet and 3) becoming Free Cash Flow (FCF) generative this year, will make it difficult for the market

IOG - Trading update

Trading update

Cenkos: Chariot Ltd -- Fast-Tracking the Anchois Development

Chariot has signed a front-end engineering and design (FEED) agreement with Schlumberger and Subsea 7 (the Subsea Integration Alliance) for the Anchois gas development project. Chariot and the Subsea Integration Alliance will adopt a “one team” integrated and collaborative approach to fast-track first gas from Anchois to maximise the return on investment for all stakeholders. The scope of work covers all the development's offshore elements including well completions and subsea production systems

AfriTin Mining: Operational efficiencies continue to drive down unit costs in another record quarter for Phase 1

AfriTin Mining (“ATM”) has announced another record-breaking quarter from Uis Phase 1. Tin production increased 13% QoQ to 152t for the three months to May (Q1 FY’23), supported by record recoveries, which along with cost initiatives drove a 16% improvement in All-In Sustaining Costs. The strong performance continues to support growth projects including incorporation of petalite lithium and tantalum by-products, upon which AfriTin recently announced positive drilling and metallurgical test work

Arrow Exploration - RCS-1 flow testing results

RCS-1 flow testing results

EQTEC - Key Milestone for Southport

EQTEC has reached a key milestone in its Southport energy from waste project with the appointment of Anaergia as EPC and O&M partner. This is a complex project using multiple waste treatment solutions and we see EQTEC’s inclusion as a demonstration that it’s technology can combine with these to create an optimal outcome.

Cenkos: Trinity Exploration & Production Plc --Commencement of Drilling Programme

Trinity has announced the commencement of its highly anticipated onshore drilling campaign. The Company's fully funded, six well drilling programme will target an aggregate 450-1,100mmbbls of reserves at a cost of US$14-17m. In addition to drilling four “conventional” low angle wells, Trinity will also drill one horizontal well and one deeper appraisal well, with both the horizontal and deeper appraisal wells having the potential to deliver substantially higher production and economic returns ve

Cenkos: Wentworth Resources Plc -- 7.1% Yield and Growth

Wentworth has announced a positive operational update ahead of its AGM to be held later today. Daily production year-to-date (YTD) has averaged 92.2MMscf/d, a c15% YoY increase (2021: 79.9MMscf/d) and ahead of Wentworth's 2022 guidance of 75-85MMscf/d. As noted previously, the strong performance of the Mnazi Bay asset YTD has allowed Wentworth to increase its total dividend distribution in respect of 2021 to 1.7p per share, a yield of c7.1%. Mnazi Bay continues to supply Tanzania with half of th

PetroTal Corp (AIM: PTAL): 0.72 mmbbl sales will trigger a US$60 mm payment to PetroTal earlier than expected

• Section II of the Northern Peruvian Pipeline has been temporary re-opened. • As a result, 0.72 mmbbl of PetroTal’s Bretana oil has been tendered at the Bayovar port by Petroperu for the July lifting. This oil previously entered the pipeline in late 2020 for which PetroTal was paid just ~US$45/bbl at the time. • PetroTal will receive the difference between this price and the price at which Petroperu will sell the oil in July (~US$120/bbl), generating over US$60 mm of price adjustment true-up r

Cenkos: Wentworth Resources Plc -- Tanzania's Leading Domestic Gas Producer

Wentworth has announced the acquisition of a 25% non-operated working interest in the Ruvuma PSA from Scirocco Energy for an initial consideration of US$3m plus contingent payments of up to US$13m. The consideration is structured to ensure that the majority is only paid in a success case, providing Wentworth with a low-cost entry point into a high growth opportunity. The transaction has the potential to nearly double the Company's production by 2026 and add over 190Bcf of 2P reserves on a Final

Wentworth Resources plc (AIM: WEN): Delivering on targets

• 2022 YTD gross production was 92 mmcf/d, ahead of our expectations of 89 mmcf/d for 1H22. • The FY22 production guidance remains unchanged at 75-85 mmcf/d. It looks very conservative in our view. • The company currently holds US$26 mm in cash and no debt. This is in line with our expectations. • TPDC continues to be current with regards to receivables. • We re-iterate our target price of £0.45 per share. Steady growth and dividend Our Core NAV for the company based on its 2P reserves only i