Uranium: Only Getting Started

What you need to know: • Uranium spot prices are up 84% since our last report in late 2022, yet we still expect further momentum in the sector. • The sentiment on nuclear power from governments around the world has begun to shift, with many nations ramping plans for reactors. • While new mines begin production and future mines achieve financing, we continue to believe the current spot price is too low in the short term. Since our initial thematic research report on uranium from November 2022 (

Q1 results: Dasa project financing still on track

We are encouraged to hear that Dasa project financing talks continue to progress, the banking syndicate informing Global Atomic that it anticipates credit committee approval during the current quarter. Successful conclusion on this schedule would allow plant construction to commence in Q4 (mine development has been underway since late 2022) which in turn could see initial yellowcake production by early 2026. An updated feasibility study of Dasa completed earlier this year confirmed its position

Dasa uranium reserves up 50%, mine life doubles

The updated feasibility study confirms Dasa’s position as one of the most bankable advanced projects in a uranium sector facing the prospect of sustained structural deficit unless new supply sources of scale are brought to account. The 50% lift in reserves and the extended mine life further strengthen Dasa’s credentials as GLO looks to conclude project financing by mid-year. This schedule could see commercial production in 2026, and with several upside opportunities identified – including furth

Third Dasa off-take agreement formalised

Completion of a third off-take agreement takes total contracted volumes to c.1.5Mlb U3O8 pa over the first five years of Dasa’s operation, equating to around 30% of total forecast production over that period. This is a strong endorsement of Dasa’s commercial credentials and Global Atomic’s development capabilities, and satisfies a key condition of project financing, which we are hopeful will complete in the near term.  

Cause for optimism as project financing talks resume

The US’s expression of support for the Dasa project financing and the re-engagement of the prospective lending institutions is a positive development and gives hope that full-scale development activities could resume next year. If funding arrangements are finalised in Q1 2024 as targeted, Dasa could reach commissioning by late 2025 and enter commercial production in 2026. However, given the delays to date and lingering uncertainty over the project financing schedule, Global Atomic is prudently a

Further off-take progress underlines Dasa’s credentials

Given recent events in Niger, the signing of a third LOI with a western utility for a significant portion of Dasa’s forecast future Phase 1 production is a timely further vote of confidence in both Dasa’s commercial credentials and Global Atomic’s development capabilities. Moreover, we believe it should further support the company’s efforts to conclude project financing arrangements for Dasa in the near term, which would in turn enable it to maintain construction momentum and build on the signif

Q2 update: Niger unrest clouds Dasa progress

GLO’s significant progress at Dasa in Q2 has unfortunately been overshadowed by subsequent political unrest in Niger. The situation in Niger is fluid, and while uncertainty remains over the eventual outcome, we note that Niger has a long-established track-record as a pro-mining country that has maintained uninterrupted a uranium-mining industry over many decades and through several regime changes. GLO’s move to conserve cash and formulate a development schedule contingency plan is prudent noneth

Dasa resource upgraded, more catalysts to follow

H2 2023 looks set to be transformative for Global Atomic as decline development at Dasa progresses towards the high-grade Flank Zone (opening the potential for direct sale of development ore next year) and construction of the processing plant gets underway, subject to project financing. The latter is close to being finalised, Dasa’s bankable credentials having been further strengthened by the recent formalisation of off-take agreements with Western utilities covering 4.5Mlb of future production.

A game-changing year in prospect

2023 looks set to be a watershed year for Global Atomic as it progresses development of its world-class Dasa uranium project in Niger. The group’s 2023 outlook highlighted that project financing is advancing towards an anticipated conclusion by mid-year, which would dovetail nicely with an expected mineral resource update later this quarter and an optimised mine plan and updated cost estimate thereafter. We remain firmly of the view that the revised Phase One mine plan will enhance the already r

More high-grade drill results point to Dasa upside

The latest Dasa drill results further point to considerable upside to existing project resources and reserves, which will be updated in Q1 of next year to incorporate the extensive bank of data gleaned from the now completed 16,000m programme. We remain firmly of the view that the revised Phase One mine plan that will follow will enhance the already robust project economics concluded by last year’s feasibility study, which demonstrated that Dasa could sustain upwards of 4Mlb pa of U3O8 productio

Uranium: Asymmetry at its Finest

What you need to know: • We are expecting demand for uranium to scale upward over the next 5+ years due to decarbonization and energy security trends • Limited brownfield projects and the lack of incentive for greenfield projects at $50/lb U3O8 will create a supply/demand imbalance • The new utility contracting cycle and Sprott Trust will continue to create price momentum for spot uranium While demand for uranium continues to progress higher due to shifting government policies to meet decarboni

Dasa credentials build with further off-take LOI

The signing of a second LOI with a large western utility for a significant portion of Dasa’s forecast future Phase 1 production represents another major vote of confidence in both Dasa’s commercial credentials and Global Atomic’s development capabilities as it moves closer to the main construction phase. Moreover, we believe it will further support Global Atomic’s efforts to secure debt funding for Dasa as the group seeks to minimise potential equity dilution to shareholders through the project

Peer-leading uranium developer ready to roll

Global Atomic offers leveraged exposure to a commodity fast emerging from a decade-long slumber as the world awakens to the key role uranium must play if global ambitions to decarbonise power generation are to be realised. The company’s 189Mlb Dasa resource in Niger has substantial development optionality in a firming uranium market, but – in contrast to many peers – also holds up at softer prices. Benefitting from high grades and straightforward metallurgy, Dasa could sustain upwards of 4Mlb pa

Tlou Energy (TLOU) - Q4 update

Tlou has released its Q4 update, reporting ongoing progress during recent months on its Lesedi CBM gas-to-power project in Botswana, with first electricity sales continuing to be targeted for 2024.

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 26/07/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target of A$0.75 per share: Diversified and high impact newsflow over the balance of 2024 – ADX has confirmed a very busy programme of activity from September. The overall unrisked value of the programme is ~A$1.70 per share, which represents 17x the current share price. In early September, ADX will drill the Anshof-2A side track. The well is expected to intersect thick Eocene reservoirs similar to that encountere

Juggernaut Exploration Ltd. (TSXV: JUGR) Making tracks with discoveries in the Golden Triangle

◆ Juggernaut Exploration Ltd. (TSXV: JUGR) owns three highly prospective projects within, and close to, the Golden Triangle in NW BC, a Tier 1 region known for significant discoveries and developments. ◆ Each project is known to host high-grade gold-rich polymetallic discoveries that deserve additional exploration and resource assessment. ◆ The Company is supported by a well-respected fund group Crescat Capital that holds just under 20% of the share capital. ◆ The Company raised C$4.8 million

Morning Note – 26 July 2024

PANMURE LIBERUM: Gemfields: Montepuez second wash plant on-budget, on-track for H1'25

Termination of coverage

Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on Cadence Minerals (KDNC). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for this company. All forecasts should now be considered redundant.

VSA Morning Flow Test 25/07/24 (Prospex)

Prospex Energy (PXEN LN) has announced a ten year extension of the licence concessions for its Spanish El Romeral project where the company produces natural gas and converts it to electricity. The extension was for the maximum allowable ten years to 2034 and can be extended to 2044. We note the Spanish Government’s quote highlighting the benefits of the extension and its securing electricity supply to the grid for the long-term. This follows the declaration in 2023 of the plant as a Public Utili

i3 Energy* (I3E LN): Initiation - A solid platform for E&P growth in Canada

i3 Energy is an AIM and TSX-listed oil and gas company with a diversified 20kboe/d production base onshore Canada, which offers UK investors attractive exposure to North American E&P themes. The Company's production growth strategy is sensibly hedged to pivot between acquiring producing assets when commodity prices are low and to invest in its low-risk drilling inventory when prices are high.

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 07/07/23

Joiners: No joiners today. Leavers: Medica Group plc has left the Premium Segment of the Main Market. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?** Blackpoint Biotech plc, a medical cannabinoids company established to fulfil gaps in the medical cannabis market by creating products that provide fast onset of action and accurate dosing, intends to join intends to join the Access Segment of the AQSE Growth Market. Expected Admission 20 July 2023. Metals One Plc, a company focusing on acquiring natural resou

i3 Energy - 2024 Guidance: Consolidation for Growth

i3 Energy announced that its 2024 guidance consists of expectations to drill 10.5 net wells (7.6 net wells in Central Alberta, 1.9 net wells in Simonette and 1.0 net wells in the Clearwater play) with 85% of capex allocated to the second half of the year. Total capex expenditure for the year is guided at $US 50.9m. The company indicated that it intends to commence pad drilling of its Montney acreage in Q1 2025 and we perceive the company is bulking up for that significant growth opportunity for

i3 Energy (I3E LN) - Sweet as maple syrup

I3E is a UK and Canada listed E&P company, with a significant producing asset position onshore Canada in Alberta.

Union Jack Oil (UJO LN) - Andrews 2-17 initial well result

Union Jack has released the successful initial results of its Andrews 2-17 well (Union Jack 45%), which has been drilled on the company’s West Bowlegs asset in Oklahoma.

Allenby Capital: Panthera Resources Update

Panthera Resources (PAT.L) recently (25/08/23) made an important announcement that could potentially unlock the value of its world-class Bhukia gold project in Rajasthan, north-west India. Non-recourse litigation financing of US$13.6m has been secured from LCM Funding SG Pty Ltd, a subsidiary of Litigation Capital Management Ltd (LITL: AIM), a leading global disputes funder, to pursue a claim against the Republic of India for a breach of treaty obligations under the 1999 Agreement between Austra

Serica Energy Plc (AIM: SQZ): Initiating Coverage

Serica Energy is a ~US800 mm market cap company with >40 mboe/d production and 140 mmboe of 2P reserves in the UK North Sea. The investment case is about value and generous shareholder distributions. The strategy is to maximize the value of two key producing hubs, depending on the UK’s tax policy, to develop a third one at Buchan Horst and to grow via M&A. Over the last 2 years, the share price has been negatively impacted by the reduction in UK gas prices and fiscal uncertainty. Serica’s divide

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 19/07/2024

Condor Energies (CDR CN)C: Signing first LNG framework agreement in Kazakhstan – Condor has signed a first LNG Framework Agreement for the utilization of LNG to fuel Kazakhstan’s rail locomotives. The agreement was also signed by Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ), the national railway operator of Kazakhstan and Wabtec Corporation, a U.S. based locomotive manufacturer with existing facilities in Kazakhstan. KTZ and Wabtec previously signed a memorandum of understanding which includes modernization wor