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    DMD DIGITAL HEALTH CONNECTI0

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    DMD DIGITAL HEALTH CONNECTI0

  • 31 Mar 20
Strong trading update

Kape has issued a strong Q1 trading update, noting a modest acceleration in Digital Privacy demand trends as a function of Covid-19 related travel restrictions. Remote working increases the number of potential vulnerabilities within a user’s network, which Kape’s VPN offering solves through provision of secure and private browsing solutions. Kape has been able to successfully service the acceleration in demand, whilst at the same time implementing its own remote working policy to ensure business continuity. Management have reiterated guidance for $120m - $123m of revenues and EBITDA of $35m - £38m, with the uplift in demand providing added headroom in forecasts. Our FY’20E forecasts generate an FCF yield of >5%, which is well underpinned by strong renewal rates and flexibility around direct marketing spend.

Companies: Kape Technologies
  • 31 Mar 20
Strong FY19 results highlight Tremor’s potential

Tremor has reported a strong set of FY19 results and announced a prudent $10m buyback. The results are in line with January’s trading update, and demonstrate strong growth in Digital Video and Connected TV (CTV) advertising. Tremor has also seen a solid start to FY20, but COVID-19 could markedly affect a number of its clients. The management and board highlight that it is too early to fully assess the impact of COVID-19 on Tremor’s FY20 outlook, and we consequently leave our FY20 estimates broadly unchanged at this point. In this report we also explain Tremor’s investment case in depth, and highlight that Tremor is excellently positioned to capitalise on the major growth in Video and CTV advertising, and can see further upside from M&A and the resolution of the Uber case.

Companies: Tremor International
  • 07 Apr 20
LIBERUM: 4imprint* - Safer at Home hits trading further – but well positioned for recovery

Previously management had indicated order counts down by 60%. Daily order counts are now running 80% below the 2019 comparative. We now assume a 50% reduction in sales in FY 2020, assuming gradual progress from Q3.

Companies: 4Imprint Group
  • 01 Apr 20
A seismic shift in the way we live and work

The Coronavirus pandemic is a human tragedy of vast proportions – as well as the terrible human toll, COVID-19 has led to economies across the globe going into physical lockdown and financial freefall. Entire populations are adapting to the “stay at home” edict, to safeguard the vulnerable – and some of these changes will lead to long-lasting or perhaps permanent changes in the way we live or work. This note describes some of our client companies whose business models are well adapted to these changes, or who might see a change in long-term structural demand.

Companies: AMO BGO FDM GAMA KAPE LOOP TERN ZOO

  • 31 Mar 20
Kape Technologies

COVID-19 update – on track and good liquidity

Companies: Kape Technologies
  • 08 Apr 20
FY20e guidance and share buy-back suspended amidst COVID-19

RELX just released a trading statement ahead of is 23 April 2020 AGM to inform that it has suspended both its FY20e guidance and share buy-back due to the uncertainties related to COVID-19.

Companies: Relx
  • 07 Apr 20
Cenkos: Cello Health plc -- Some disruption, but faring well considering

Cello's trading momentum continued over Q1/20E with signs of further organic progress and maintenance of a strong balance sheet. The impact of measures to combat Covid-19 is creating some disruption for certain clients and their activities, but the majority of existing project work remains intact with new bookings continuing to come in. Contingencies are being exercised to limit any impact on profitability and cash flow. Given the degree of uncertainty over the level of disruption, we are withdrawing forecasts and putting our recommendation Under Review.

Companies: Cello Health
  • 20 Mar 20
H1’20 pre-close: cash ahead

Future has announced a pre-close trading update for H1’20 highlighting continued strong online audience growth which is further driving eCommerce and digital advertising revenue streams. Recent weeks have been unprecedented, however the Group continues to see limited impact to online consumer behavioural trends (Feb audience traffic: +2% month on month per ComScore), whilst in Magazine y/y growth in Grocers is partly offsetting declines in travel outlets. Key metrics are holding up well, and the Group expects to continue to trade in-line with expectations. Half year net cash of £47m-£53m is expected by management, implying FCF is ahead of our £18m H1 forecast (N1Se H1 net cash: £44.9m). The Group is a highly cash-generative business, and post TI acquisition (consideration: £140m) will enjoy £30m-£40m of headroom in debt facilities and plenty of comfort on covenants (1.0x net debt/pro forma EBITDA; covenant: <3.0x). The Group trades on a 6.6x EV/pro forma FY’20E EBITDA multiple (peers: 12x-17x), and offers an FY’21E FCF yield of 13.5% (peers: 3%-5%).

Companies: Future
  • 02 Apr 20
Focus on core areas; significant cost reductions

Interims from Gfinity, the leading international esports business, saw progress with gross profit growth and cost control resulting in reduced operating losses. Going forward, Gfinity is focusing on three core areas where it has a competitive advantage (eMotorsports, own community and building communities for others) and exiting other areas. As flagged in March, Gfinity has undertaken a strategic review and has started a series of major cost reduction measures including board and senior leadership changes and is adopting a more flexible operating cost model. It is also strengthening its balance sheet with a conditional raise of £2.25m at 1p/share plus a 1:1 warrant. COVID-19 has driven a surge in video gaming and in traffic to Gfinity’s own platforms and has created opportunities, such as the F1 Esports Virtual Grand Prix series. It has also created an increased level of uncertainty for the rest of FY20, however, with major live physical events deferred. Consequently, we are withdrawing forecasts in the interim.

Companies: Gfinity
  • 07 Apr 20
Well placed to emerge stronger

In previous downturns, 4imprint’s financial strength and marketing skills have enabled the group to take share and exit in a stronger position. The competition is largely significantly smaller, more local operators that do not have the same financial reserves or marketing expertise. The speed and scale of the COVID-19 downturn is likely to see this trend to an even greater degree. 4imprint has detailed that the lockdown directives in the US and UK have resulted in orders running at c.20% of 2019, and this limited level of activity is likely to continue. Marketing costs typically account for c.75% of operating costs, meaning the cost base can be quickly aligned to market conditions and management has stated the marketing portfolio has been radically re-shaped in a very short space of time, resulting in a mix that is appropriate to current circumstances in terms of both type and cost but equally provides a firm platform to take full advantage of improving conditions when they occur. At the end of Q1, the group had cash of over $50m and no debt; it will also not pay the final dividend, which would have cost $16m. The Board has not fundamentally changed its dividend policy, and it will reassess its position in coming months as the situation becomes clearer. No forward guidance is provided at this stage, and we consequently place our forecasts and target price under review for the time being. However, we maintain our view that 4imprint has the financial strength and proven market-leading business model to exit the current downturn in a stronger market position, providing the basis for the shares to regain previous highs.

Companies: 4Imprint Group
  • 07 Apr 20
Well positioned to weather the storm

Cello traded well in Q1, with good revenue growth and solid operating cash generation resulting in £11.7m cash at the end of March. The Group has total facilities of £24.0m, of which £7.0m were drawn down at 31 March 2020. Cello is in a strong financial position. The entire employee base of the Group has been working remotely for over two weeks and delivering largely uninterrupted services to clients. Within the Cello Health division, there is some evidence of deferral of certain types of work where live meetings are essential. However, in the majority of cases, project work has continued and overall recent booking levels have remained encouraging. Some non-healthcare clients have needed to delay or cancel certain projects. Consequently, the cost base is being reviewed and the Board has agreed to take a 10% salary reduction for three months. The proposed final dividend of 2.95p will be replaced by an interim 1.0p, with the aim of declaring a special dividend subject to future trading performance. The Board is not currently able to provide clarity regarding the outlook for 2020 and we consequently place our forecasts and target price under review for the time being. Overall, Cello’s ability to deliver the majority of its services remotely, the defensive nature of its healthcare client base (82% of historic net sales), management action and the strong financial position means the group is very well placed to weather the storm and then resume its established growth path.

Companies: Cello Health
  • 12 Nov 19
Guidance confirmed

The decrease in total advertising revenue slowed in 9 months 19 (-3% vs -5% in H1 19), reflecting a positive trend in Q3 19 (+1%) and corresponding to the high range of guidance (-1/+1%). Online revenue grew significantly (+23% in 9 months 19 vs +18% in H1 19). As expected, ITV Studios benefited from high deliveries of programmes, in particular from ITV America. The 2019 guidance is confirmed and a dividend of at least 8.0p/share was reiterated.

Companies: ITV
  • 13 Mar 20
High risk in TV advertising with the Coronavirus outbreak

In 2019, total advertising was better than expected and decreased by -1.5% (vs guidance of c.-2%). Lower group adjusted EBITA margin was attributable to Broadcasting, which had to support higher investments in the businesses, including the launch of BritBox UK, which were not completely offset by cost savings. The outlook for 2020 is uncertain due to the Coronavirus outbreak. Essentially, there should be a significant negative effect on TV advertising.

Companies: ITV
  • 04 Sep 15
Media - The story so far

In this edition of our biannual sector review, we summarise the manner in which recent results, trading statements and M&A activity have influenced our forecasts and recommendations. Most updates have met expectations/ provided reassurance on full-year prospects; however, recent share price performance has been disappointing and in many cases, primarily influenced by macro factors. We see value across a range of stocks (our top five positive picks are WPP, ITV, UBM, ITE and Quarto Group*) and regard several others as fairly valued. We have no Sell recommendations in place at present.

Companies: CAU ERM INF HYVE ITV MONY NFC PSON QRT UBS WIL WPP DMGT RMV

  • 17 Aug 15
Impressive results

Rightmove’s interims provided further confirmation of its status as a tightly managed, highly cash-generative subscription-based business with a clear and consistent strategy, strong competitive position and attractive prospects. Despite a small cost-driven downgrade, we forecast strong EPS and DPS growth and our new 3,377p TP suggests RMV’s stock remains in fair value territory for now. That said, we would not discourage holders from taking some profit following a period of pronounced share price strength.

Companies: Rightmove