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  • 17 May 19

Interim results – another beat

H1 Revenue is ahead of our not long ago increased expectation driving a better profit result. Cash is also £10m ahead. The business has good momentum and despite the ever present spectre of Brexit there is still significant scope for us to prudently raise revenue, EBITDA and EPS estimates. Acquisitions integrations and performances are on plan and the online advertising technology changes in place to benefit. The shares have re-rated again in line with the changing fundamentals. We see a path to 20x EBITDA leaving significant upside potential without the need for further upgrades.

Companies: Future
  • 07 May 19

Good growth in subscriber numbers

Continuing the momentum seen in the FY 2018 results, Kape’s AGM statement confirms that the Group has enjoyed a strong start to the current financial year with trading in-line with expectations. Subscriber numbers are up 14% since December 2018. Both acquisitions made last year are enjoying the benefits of Kape’s digital marketing expertise which are being realised in new user growth and expanded market reach. The statement also notes the continued strengthening of the Group’s global brand and the growing demand from consumers to protect and control access to their private data. We note the positive trend in user growth which the company expects to translate into profitability in the following periods.

Companies: Kape Technologies
  • 01 Mar 19

Consolidating strength

Future has made another key acquisition this time consolidating its recent expansion in the US technology orientated segment. The Mobile Nations brands add an extra online audience of over 40m per month. The acquisition also further increases the weighting of Media (online advertising and eCommerce) boosting growth and valuation potential. We lift EPS 4.7% for FY19 and 13.1% for FY20. The 3 year earnings CAGR rises to a highly attractive 24.2%.

Companies: Future
  • 26 Mar 19

Cenkos: XLMedia Plc - Very high FCF yield

2019E should see the beginning of a recovery phase. Development effort into existing assets and diversification away from gambling should help reduce the volatility seen of late. The free cash flow yield is pricing in no recovery whatsoever.

Companies: XLMedia
  • 26 Apr 19

Immediate progress on integration

Following the acquisition of RhythmOne, Taptica’s brand advertising division (Tremor Video DSP) has wasted little time in integrating the two offerings. Tremor video advertising services have been combined with RhythmOne to launch Private Marketplace Packages (PMPs), providing advertisers with premium supply inventory through owned, controlled and extended packages. These will enable marketers to target unique, very relevant and qualified audiences with PMPs, providing high-quality video supply through these private (invitation only) auction-based marketplaces owned and operated by the group. Additionally, the PMPs utilise the proprietary RhythmGuard technology, ensuring scalability, precision and quality. There are no changes to forecasts or TP.

Companies: Taptica International
  • 08 May 19

Advertising negative

Advertising was clearly negative in Q1 19 with a 7% drop in revenue (vs +3% in Q1 18 and +1% in FY2018). Taking into account advertising in April 2018 (+8%), total advertising revenue decreased by 3% in January-April 2019, in line with guidance (-3%/-4%). The trend is expected to be negative in May and June 2019 (respectively -2% and -20% estimated). Lastly, the launch of BritBox, a new streaming service, on-demand and ad-free, is expected in H2 19.

Companies: ITV
  • 27 Mar 19

Rally seen in the first quarter stalls

Parliamentary and Brexit developments continue to hold centre stage, although the precise path forward remains as unclear as ever. The uncertainty over Brexit, worries over a possible slowdown in the US and the outlook for global economic growth generally have all contributed to the recent falls in markets. While the rally seen since the start of the year has petered out, most indices have still made progress. In Share News & Views we comment on Bloomsbury Publishing, Bonhill Group*, Braemar Shipping Services*, Burford, Clarkson, LightwaveRF*, Marshall Motor Holdings and Synectics*.

Companies: AOR APC BONH BMS CTG CRPR DMTR ESC EUSP FDM FA/ LWRF LSAI NKTN PCF SNX TCN VRE W7L

  • 05 Apr 19

ICM and channel sales drive growth

FY 2018 results highlight the transformation from the struggling business management inherited in 2016. It is delivering on its strategy of profitable organic growth allied to targeted acquisitions and innovative development to become a leading pure play registry in the gTLD market. MMX continues to enjoy rapid registration growth and high renewal rates from an extensive portfolio which is growing in range and value. That is building predictable recurring revenue which now covers the cost base ahead of partner payments. The results include a half year of the ICM acquisition which has integrated well to help drive that growth and improve renewal rates. Underlying results beat sales and profit expectations but were reduced by $0.6m due to a 2016 contract adjustment. Housekeeping of old contracts, and acquisition and restructuring costs contributed to heavy exceptional items; however, this clears the decks for continued profitable growth.

Companies: Minds + Machines Group
  • 09 Apr 19

The Mission Marketing Group - Another year of progress

Themission’s FY18 results were in line with the trading update, with good top-line growth (buoyed by the Krow acquisition), higher operating margins and a balance sheet strengthened by the £3.0m profit on the sale of BroadCare in November. Cash flow should comfortably cover future earn-out commitments. The appointment of James Clifton (of in-house agency bigdog) as group CEO should help to drive further collaboration across the 28 offices, with more cross- and up-selling to the low-churn, blue-chip client base. The valuation remains at a sizable discount to peers.

Companies: The Mission Marketing Group
  • 07 May 19

Positive AGM statement, trading in line

Kape has issued a brief but positive AGM statement indicating a strong start to the financial year with trading in line with expectations. Q1 highlights include strong growth in subscriber numbers, 65% growth in mobile VPN subscribers and visibility of $33.5m of future revenue. We continue to believe the investment case for Kape is compelling given underlying market trends, a growing portfolio of solutions, a strengthening brand and powerful user acquisition capabilities. We expect these to drive premium growth and a considerable re-rating as significant levels of investment convert into strong returns.

Companies: Kape Technologies
  • 16 May 19

Mondo TV - Tracking on trading

Mondo TV’s Q119 figures are as flagged, tracking to its December 2018 business plan. Our revenue and earnings numbers are unchanged. YooHoo to the Rescue is now airing globally on Netflix, giving a strong start to management’s ambitions to broaden geographic revenue spread. The group has settled with three of the four Asian customers that withdrew in H218, but remains in dispute with one. It has also disclosed that it is subject to a further tax authority investigation, which it is confident will find in its favour. A further mark down in the share price, now off the lows, leaves the valuation at a deep discount to peers and the DCF.

Companies: Mondo Tv
  • 05 Dec 17

“Requiring further in depth transformation… and time”

No clear picture on the group’s strategy before mid-February 2018, implying continuing high volatility in the share price in the short term.

Companies: Solocal Group
  • 08 Aug 17

M&A strategy – Accretive, Value Focus, Lower Risk

Next Fifteen (NFC) has announced the acquisitions of Velocity Partners and Circle Research for a combined net initial consideration of £9m (£7.9m in cash). Both acquisitions are in line with the NFC M&A strategy; single digit acquisition multiple; entrepreneurial continuing management, digital focus with North American ambitions. We have argued before that NFC’s M&A track record is one of the best in the peer group, with an emphasis on value, innovation and quality over scale. We have upgraded our estimates in response. NFC continues to trade on a well-deserved 6% PE premium to the Small Cap Agency peer group.

Companies: Next Fifteen Communications Group
  • 03 May 18

Exploiting the GlobalData model

GlobalData has acquired the Research Views Group (RV) business for £90m in shares and assumed c£8.4m of debt. GlobalData will be able to exploit the RV sector datasets through its highly efficient platform. This includes leveraging RV by selling to a wider range of customers (professional and public body as well as existing industry) and by adding additional products that GlobalData has developed. This creates a multi-dimensional growth profile for the acquired assets and leverages GlobalData’s investment. While there will be some immediate accretion to earnings for 2018 that grows in 2019, we expect the long term will yield considerably more as each sector is optimised. This is yet another strong move to advance GlobalData’s growth potential. Based on our peer based EV/Sales valuation approach the intrinsic value of GlobalData is on its way to £10 per share.

Companies: GlobalData
  • 18 Jul 18

Future - US Purch-ase

Future is taking a major step towards realising its US ambitions with the acquisition of Purch for $132.5m/£100.1m, fully funded by a rights issue of 3 new for 4 existing shares at 303p. The purchase fits neatly with Future’s existing media brands and tech-enabled culture and expands the US revenue base to around half of group (historic pro-forma). The purchase price represents 2.1x Purch’s CY17 revenues, 13.1x EBITDA, and management expects the transaction to be materially enhancing to earnings in its first full year, FY19. On the ex-rights price and indicative forecasts, the shares will be trading on an undeserved discount to peers.

Companies: Future