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  • 09 Nov 17

The Joy of Techs

This quarter we use finnCap’s Slide Rule to provide both top-down and bottom-up analysis of the UK’s Technology and Telecoms sectors. Our findings are very reassuring: the Tech sector scores the best (across all sectors) when considering Growth and Quality – Taptica*, Frontier Developments* and dotDigital* in particular stand out on these metrics. Given these attractive characteristics and growth prospects, the Tech sector is unsurprisingly one of the most expensive – currently trading at 17.2x FY1 EV/EBIT and 23.8x FY1 P/E, versus 15.0x and 18.5x respectively for the wider market. Despite valuations appearing high, we believe there are value opportunities. For example, Proactis* features in finnCap’s QVGM+ portfolio (ranked 17/462) – the company offers attractive organic and inorganic growth, with earnings forecast to grow by 26% CAGR over the next two years, but despite this, only trades on 15x FY1 earnings and offers 8% FCF yield in FY2.

Companies: 7DIG ALT AMO ARTA BOTB BLTG CTP CITY D4T4 DTC DOTD ELCO ESG FDEV GBG IDEA IDOX IMTK IGP IOM KBT KCOM KWS LRM MAI MMX NASA NET PHD QTX QXT RCN 932 SSY SEE SIM SPE SRT STR TAP TAX TEP TPOP TRAK UNG VIP ZOO CYAN ONEV

  • 17 Apr 18

LIBERUM: Johnston Press* - "i" can save it all

Johnston Press reported FY numbers, which were broadly in line with market expectations. The i delivered another stellar year and Q1 indications seem to be in-line with current market expectations.

Companies: Johnston Press
  • 26 Mar 18

Taptica’s transformational time

The 2017 results were delivered to expectations and accompanied by a positive outlook statement confident of meeting market expectations for impressive growth in 2018, which will be driven by further geographic expansion – both in Europe and particularly APAC where mobile usage is so strong – and further moves into video and brand advertising. Last year was transformational for Taptica; the business delivered impressive 27% organic sales growth in H1 and was assisted in H2 by the significant acquisitions of Adinnovation and Tremor Video’s DSP business, to deliver a headline 68% YoY growth in revenue and 32% growth in adjusted PBT across the year. Looking ahead, management is confident of meeting market growth expectations while delivering on a three-year plan to build a truly global business with a presence in ten key hubs worldwide. We reiterate our FY 2018 forecasts and issue FY 2019 forecasts. Our target price remains unchanged at 550p.

Companies: Taptica International
  • 01 Apr 18

AIM Journal

Two former AIM companies could be in the FTSE 100 index in the near future following the successful bids by Melrose Industries for GKN and GVC for Ladbrokes Coral. Melrose has been on the brink of the FTSE 100 for a while and if a constituent company of the FTSE 100 is acquired than it can be replaced by the acquirer when it is eligible. Melrose is already on the reserve list for inclusion in the FTSE 100, following the March 2018 quarterly review.

Companies: PTSG JDG TRCS SRB TAP KETL

  • 19 Apr 18

Good start to the year 2018

Organic net revenue growth was satisfactory in Q1 18 (+1.6%). It was driven by North America (+2.8%) where the reorganisation is the most advanced within the group. Finally, Q1 18 was a busy quarter for contract wins, sustaining the perspective of higher organic growth in 2018 vs 2017.

Companies: Publicis Groupe
  • 01 Feb 18

LIBERUM: Johnston Press* - Solid trading update and "i" growing very well

Johnston Press has published a trading update showing a 5% decline in total revenues from, continuing operations boosted by the very strong performance of the “i” newspaper. Management stated that EBITDA should be in line with expectations.

Companies: Johnston Press
  • 21 Jan 15

Hybridan - Small Cap Wrap

The Hybridan Small Cap Wrap is a weekly review of some of the most interesting small cap stories of the past week. Our review will usually be of those companies whose market capitalisations are less than £50m although we may occasionally cover larger companies.

Companies: OPM ACT ATQT EYE ERGO FFX GAL KBT OPTI REDX RDT SAR SPRP XLM

  • 04 Sep 15

Media - The story so far

In this edition of our biannual sector review, we summarise the manner in which recent results, trading statements and M&A activity have influenced our forecasts and recommendations. Most updates have met expectations/ provided reassurance on full-year prospects; however, recent share price performance has been disappointing and in many cases, primarily influenced by macro factors. We see value across a range of stocks (our top five positive picks are WPP, ITV, UBM, ITE and Quarto Group*) and regard several others as fairly valued. We have no Sell recommendations in place at present.

Companies: CAU ERM INF ITE ITV MONY NFC PSON QRT RMV UBS WIL WPP DMGT

  • 08 Sep 15

Acquisition of AreaOne – expanding into Social

H1 results on Friday were comfortably ahead of our revised forecasts. This will improve the markets confidence in achieving underlying full year estimates. The Mobile business outperformed and looks to be growing very well supporting the strategic focus of the group. The Company has announced the acquisition of AreaOne today (an accredited Facebook marketing partner), expanding the group into Social Media and meaning that Marimedia will be positioned for the fastest growing segments of the online media market. This highly attractive media offering (video, mobile, social) coupled with strong data, data analytics and single technology platform is putting Marimedia at the front of the pack. The strategic value of the group continues to rise.

Companies: Taptica International
  • 27 Sep 16

LIBERUM: XLMedia* - Publishing profit stands out

A record half-yearly performance and a reiteration of profit guidance for FY16 is a good starting point. However, the mix was different to what we expected as the high margin Publishing division outperformed while the Media business reflected a more challenging backdrop.

Companies: XLMedia
  • 09 Feb 17

N+1 Singer - Small-cap quantitative research - New quality style screen + 11 quality focus stocks

We introduce our fourth and final style screen representing “quality”. This screens for stocks with the best combination of high returns on capital/equity, EBIT margins and operating cash-flow conversion rates. These criteria should help us monitor how strong underlying returns translate into share price performance over time and under varying market conditions. The screen selects the “best” 25 stocks from our universe of just over 500 stocks and, as usual, we focus on a shorter list of stocks we cover or otherwise know and believe to be particularly interesting. We provide brief investment summaries on these focus stocks on pages 4 – 9. We will monitor performance and refresh the screen in approximately 3-4 months time.

Companies: GHT CRW AVON ZYT DOTD SERV GBG GTLY PHD KNOS ULS

  • 27 Apr 17

UK consultancy acquisition

The group has acquired a UK-based pricing and market access consultancy, providing an important additional marketing communication service to the group’s existing Healthcare offering. We have upgraded our 2017 and 2018 adjusted PBT forecasts by 3% and 5% respectively and raised our target price further to 69p from 66p.

Companies: The Mission Marketing Group
  • 23 Aug 17

Weak trends seen across the advertising industry

WPP has just reported H1 17 revenue figures (including the full impact of digital billings, i.e. linked to acquiring digital media space on its own account) which were up 13.3% to £7,404m, a 0.3% organic decline (was 4.3% in H1 16) offset by an 11.4% positive impact from forex and +2.2% from acquisitions. Net sales were down 0.5% organically (were +0.8% over Q1), implying a tough Q2: July was bad with net sales down 2.6% organically, below internal budget (cumulative organic net sales growth for the first seven months is -0.8%) and Q2, indeed, suffered from pressures on client spending namely in the FMCG sector The reported net sales margin reached 13.9%, up 20bp from the 13.7% level a year earlier and flat at CER. The headline diluted EPS rose by 16.1% to 45.4p (+2.4% at CER) while the interim dividend is raised 16.1% to 22.7p (i.e. a pay-out ratio of 50%). Following these disappointing Q2 results, the FY17e forecast has been revised down further. WPP now anticipates organic revenue and net sales growth between 0% and +1% instead of the previous “around +2%”. Positively, the headline net sales operating margin target improvement remains unchanged at +30bp at CER.

Companies: WPP
  • 26 Sep 17

Fruits of labour

MMX has had a successful H1, whereby thanks to a focus on .vip, the company achieved an exceptionally strong (.vip) renewal rate of 75%, meaning the company can build upon the domain's 2016 launch. To help achieve this, the introduction of new premium inventory was delayed, but is now benefitting H2 (as evidenced by a very strong Q3) and as such, MMX is on track with FY16 and is well placed to meet our maiden forecasts.

Companies: Minds + Machines Group
  • 31 Oct 17

Halloween heralds trick or treat season?

All Hallows’ Eve could well herald both trick and treat. We have the likelihood of an increase in interest rates for the first time in more than a decade, a scary thought for some. In the last few weeks, we have also seen two sides to the market, with both a significant increase in secondary fund raisings across a range of sectors, as well as the market’s unforgiving nature to any downbeat news. Most indices have retained their progress year to date in the last fortnight. In Share News & Views, we comment on recent updates from Bloomsbury, Braemar Shipping* and Vitesse Media*.

Companies: BMY BMS VIS