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    DMD DIGITAL HEALTH CONNECTI0

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    DMD DIGITAL HEALTH CONNECTI0

  • 13 Jan 20
Further expansion in Risk Solutions Fraud and Credit Risk Assessment

RELX today announced that its LexisNexis Risk Solutions division has agreed to buy the US company ID Analytics, a provider of credit and fraud risk solutions for enterprises, for $375m (i.e. c.£290m). This is a rather significant acquisition for the group and, at first sight, an interesting one, in line with LexisNexis Risk Solutions’ offering. No change to our recommendation.

Companies: Relx
  • 16 Jan 20
LIBERUM: 4imprint* - Trading statement guides to the upper end of the PBT range

4imprint’s trading statement guides to PBT at the upper end of the range (which is tight). We increase our revenue growth estimate from 16.0% to 16.6% for FY19, and increase EPS by 1% to 152.6c.

Companies: 4Imprint Group
  • 17 Jan 20
'Excellent’ year for Health

Cello Health has confirmed that it expects to report FY 2019 results in line with the consensus on an IFRS 16 basis. The Health division has seen strong like-for-like growth in net revenue, well ahead of plan, and an expanding operating profit margin, partly offset by a weaker performance by Signal. H2 cash flow was strong and the group was in a strong net cash position at the year end. We have updated our forecasts for IFRS 16 and the disposal of Pulsar, and reiterate our view that with PE actively acquiring in this sector and international peers on substantially higher ratings, Cello’s valuation multiples are underpinned with good upside.

Companies: Cello Health
  • 21 Oct 19
Quarterly Research Outlook Autumn 2019

Following continued delays of a Brexit agreement, few sectors within the UK market have remained attractive to investors despite low valuations. One sector which has continued to outperform despite the political drama has been the UK video gaming sector (henceforth UK gaming), which we are fans of. We believe a combination of sector-leading growth, strong cash conversion and timely cyclical positioning support our positive view on the UK video gaming sector.

Companies: ABBY AMS ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CDM CSRT TIDE CYAN DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPO FDEV GTLY GENL GHH GRI GEEC GKP HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KAPE KEYS KWS KCT KGH LAM LIT LOK MACF MANO MOD OXIG PCA PANR APP ESRE PHC PMO RBW RMM RBGP REDD RSW RNO ROR SUS SCPA SEN SHG SOLG SOM SUMO TM17 INCE TWD TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF

  • 16 Jan 20
4imprint Group - Self-promotion pays

4imprint’s pre-close update indicates trading in the later weeks of the full year continued strong, with FY19 results set to be at the higher end of the market forecast range. Revenue (+17%) was slightly above our estimate, which we raised by $10m at the November trading update. The $41.0m net cash at the year end was also a little ahead of our forecast of $39.5m. We have initiated FY21 forecasts, which show the group exceeding management’s $1bn revenue target a year earlier than originally anticipated. The large scale of the addressable market leaves plenty of opportunity for growth, with potential for further share price appreciation.

Companies: 4Imprint Group
  • 06 Jan 20
News Corp strategic partnership and Unruly acquisition

Tremor has announced that it is acquiring Unruly from News Corp through the issuance of 8.5m new Tremor ordinary shares to News Corp (6.9% of Tremor’s prior shares or £14.5m), and Tremor has entered into a global partnership with News Corp for 3 years of exclusive access to outstream digital video adverts for over 50 News Corp publications, with Tremor committing to £30m of ad spend over 3 years. This indicates News Corp has considerable confidence in Tremor, and as News Corp now has a substantial interest in the Tremor investment case, it is anticipated that Rebekah Brooks (CEO of News UK) will join Tremor’s board. Tremor has also issued a short trading update, with FY19 EBITDA in line with market expectations (H2 c$39m), net cash in line except for a $5m advance, and FY19 revenue lower than expected due to Tremor focusing on its profitable, core activities and removing intercompany revenue. We consequently adjust our forecasts with a breakdown on p6. Tremor subsequently trades at a substantial discount to its peers on 12m fwd multiples of 2.4x EV/EBITDA and 5x adj P/E, and we look forward to Tremor issuing a more detailed trading update in late January.

Companies: Tremor International
  • 16 Jan 20
Cenkos: Cello Health plc -- Momentum continues through H2/19E

Today's trading update confirms strong H2/19E trading, in-line with FY19E consensus expectations (£109m net revenue, £13.0m adj PBT). The core Cello Health division has continued to deliver growth ahead of plan following H1/19A's impressive growth. This has been offset somewhat by a weaker performance in Cello Signal given recent UK macro conditions. A reorganisation of Cello Signal to more closely support Cello Health thus appears sensible. The shares are starting to reflect the growing traction.

Companies: Cello Health
  • 13 Dec 19
Arden Tech SoundBytes

Xbox Series X to launch holiday 2020

Companies: BIDS FDEV CDM SUMO TM17 KWS GFIN

  • 15 Jan 20
A year of transformation

Centaur Media has announced a positive trading update, in line with market expectations. We are highly encouraged by growth in Lawyer subscription revenues and mix-driven margin improvement in XEIM which are progressing in line with management expectations for the MAP22 strategy (targeting 20% pre-IFRS16 EBITDA margins by 2022; H1’19: 2.5%). Centaur enters 2020 a radically different proposition than in 2019, stream-lined to focus on two core verticals in which the Group has strong brand presence. FY’20E EBITDA margins are forecast to improve rapidly as the Group rationalises support costs to match its new, focused structure having completed its disposal programme in H1. With trading in-line, we make no adjustments to our forecasts at this time. Our selected peer group trades at 10.5x EV/FY’20E EBITDA (Centaur: 5.8x), offering 21% 3-year EBITDA CAGR (Centaur: 51%).

Companies: Centaur Media
  • 16 Jan 20
WHI Morning Comment: 4imprint (FOUR) - Outperforms again; positive FY update confirms strong H2

4imprint continues to make its mark with excellent results, the latest being anticipated in this morning's trading update as the company lowers the blinds on FY2019E. Growth rates of c.16% in H1 accelerated to c.17% in H2, generating results ahead of expectation across all of the sales, PBTA and cash categories. This is particularly pleasing given the contribution of the brand initiative (new sales methods) started early last year – a new departure which has proved highly effective. Over a decade-plus of double digit CAGR, FOUR has made this sort of success look easy; however the model involves a complex combination of techniques, including notably the highly effective use of data analytics, while FOUR fulfils significant multiples of sensitive individual orders, with very low error rates leading to very high rates of client retention. Significant entry barriers remain as the company continues to dig into a large ($US20bn-plus) and profitable market of which it still has a relatively small share. Our forecasts for the current year are tweaked slightly upwards in line with this morning's update; our forward forecasts are left unchanged for now; but the outlook will be revisited when FY results are reported on 03/03. Our current fair value estimate of 3750p equates to a forward PE in the early 20s.

Companies: 4Imprint Group
  • 11 Mar 19
FY18 results show Adj. PBT up 51% to $5.9m

FY2018 results reflect a satisfactory performance, given continued softness in the book trade. Revenues fell by 2% to $149.3m but adjusted operating profit increased 43% to $10.3m. Children’s publishing increased by 2%, representing over one-third of group revenues. The group has extended its banking facilities to August 2020. Net debt fell by 6% to $60.4m. In 2018 the group implemented a cost-out programme to right-size the group. We shall look to reintroduce estimates in due course. We have the shares under review ahead of this.

Companies: Quarto Group
  • 02 Jul 19
Where’s the Value?

Warren Buffett once said that as an investor, it is wise to be ‘fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful’. Fear is not in short supply right now.

Companies: OPM ALU ANCR BLV CONN CRC STU GATC HAT LEK MMH MCB MWE NXR NTBR NOG PAF PEG RFX SRC TEF TEG TPT VTU WYN XLM

  • 24 Sep 19
Quality of revenue improves during a strong half

This has been a good half, seeing growth in registrations, group revenue and renewals, assisted by a full six months of ICM. The increased sales at higher margin has meant H1 adj. EBITDA jumped over 300%; moreover, a key point is approached as renewal revenues now cover almost all costs: partner payments, cost of sales, and opex. Operationally, progress has also been made in resolving the legacy contract issues. MMX remains comfortably on track for our FY 2019 expectations, which remain unchanged. The company remains wary of giving FY 2020 guidance at this stage. However, looking ahead, this is a much more stable operation; a much better quality to the revenue stream, a controlled cost base, legacy issues addressed; and exciting and innovative growth opportunities.

Companies: Minds + Machines Group
  • 25 Sep 19
The Mission Marketing Group - Creative business partner for brands

MISSION’s new CEO James Clifton, appointed in April, is setting his stamp on the group, recasting it as a business partner for brands. The name change from The Mission Marketing Group reflects this new approach. He is accelerating internal collaboration and a multi-agency approach, as well as simplifying the internal structure. H1 trading and recent new business wins are indicating early validation. Operating margins should improve as more support services are provided centrally, with market estimates indicating 14.0% for FY21e, from 12.6% in FY18. The valuation remains at a sizable discount to peers.

Companies: The Mission Group
  • 21 Oct 19
The legal services read across from recent bids on CTR and MUR

At a time where UK public market valuations remain subdued, especially given GBP weakness, it seems reasonable to assume the potential for opportunistic private bids may increase. We have long argued the merits of certain business services companies with exposure to the legal sector, and we believe recent private interest in the space supports this. In our view, the demonstrable private intrigue may provide a floor to valuations, leaving significant upside risk; if the public market does not correct this mispricing, private equity or M&A may do.

Companies: ANX GTLY INCE NAH REDD