EQ Inc. enables businesses to understand, predict, and influence customer behaviour. Using unique and third-party data sets, advanced analytics, artificial intelligence, and machine learning, EQ creates actionable intelligence for businesses to attract, retain, and grow customers. The Company’s proprietary Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) platform mines insights from location and geospatial data, enabling businesses to close the loop between digital and real-world consumer actions. EQ is one of the largest providers of location-based data in Canada with over 1 petabyte of data. (1.0) Quarterly Highlights: (1.1) Quarterly Revenue Declines 32% Y/Y and 35% Q/Q (1.1.1) EQ reported Revenue of $2.1 million in Q3/2022, down from $3.1 million in Q3/2021 and $3.2 million in the previous quarter, and lower than our estimate of $3.5 million. (1.1.2) The revenue decline was primarily due to clients delaying certain advertising campaigns into 2023, primarily by clients in the automotive industry. (1.1.3) However, EQ reported that Q4 bookings should be ~50% higher than Q3 and also reported two major contract extensions, a large client renewal, and eight new clients that should positively impact revenue in Q4 and 2023. It expects to be profitable by H2/2023. (1.2) New Retail Insights Product ("Clearlake") Launched in Beta (1.2.1) EQ has rolled out its retail data insights tool ("ClearLake") that incorporates millions of consumer transactions and billions of dollars of consumer spending to provide insights and understanding into consumer behavior and spending trends in Canada. (1.2.2) We believe ClearLake should increase recurring revenue and improve Gross Margins and EBITDA in 2023. (2.0) Financial Analysis & Valuation: (2.1) Due to the lower revenue in Q3/2022, the Company’s guidance for Q4/2022, and uncertainty about the timing of revenue from EQ’s new data services, we have lowered our quarterly revenue estimate to $3.2 million from $4.5 million in Q4/2022, which decreases our annual revenue estimate to $11.3 million in 2022 from $14.0 million. For 2023, we are reducing our revenue estimate to $17.0 million from $21.5 million. (2.2) We estimate an equal-weighted price target of $1.80 based on a DCF valuation ($2.31/share) and a Revenue Multiple valuation ($1.29/share). (2.3) We are maintaining our Buy rating but decreasing our one-year price target to $1.80 from $1.90.

05 Dec 2022
Challenging Quarter Overshadows Recently Launched Retail Insights Product

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Challenging Quarter Overshadows Recently Launched Retail Insights Product
EQ Inc. enables businesses to understand, predict, and influence customer behaviour. Using unique and third-party data sets, advanced analytics, artificial intelligence, and machine learning, EQ creates actionable intelligence for businesses to attract, retain, and grow customers. The Company’s proprietary Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) platform mines insights from location and geospatial data, enabling businesses to close the loop between digital and real-world consumer actions. EQ is one of the largest providers of location-based data in Canada with over 1 petabyte of data. (1.0) Quarterly Highlights: (1.1) Quarterly Revenue Declines 32% Y/Y and 35% Q/Q (1.1.1) EQ reported Revenue of $2.1 million in Q3/2022, down from $3.1 million in Q3/2021 and $3.2 million in the previous quarter, and lower than our estimate of $3.5 million. (1.1.2) The revenue decline was primarily due to clients delaying certain advertising campaigns into 2023, primarily by clients in the automotive industry. (1.1.3) However, EQ reported that Q4 bookings should be ~50% higher than Q3 and also reported two major contract extensions, a large client renewal, and eight new clients that should positively impact revenue in Q4 and 2023. It expects to be profitable by H2/2023. (1.2) New Retail Insights Product ("Clearlake") Launched in Beta (1.2.1) EQ has rolled out its retail data insights tool ("ClearLake") that incorporates millions of consumer transactions and billions of dollars of consumer spending to provide insights and understanding into consumer behavior and spending trends in Canada. (1.2.2) We believe ClearLake should increase recurring revenue and improve Gross Margins and EBITDA in 2023. (2.0) Financial Analysis & Valuation: (2.1) Due to the lower revenue in Q3/2022, the Company’s guidance for Q4/2022, and uncertainty about the timing of revenue from EQ’s new data services, we have lowered our quarterly revenue estimate to $3.2 million from $4.5 million in Q4/2022, which decreases our annual revenue estimate to $11.3 million in 2022 from $14.0 million. For 2023, we are reducing our revenue estimate to $17.0 million from $21.5 million. (2.2) We estimate an equal-weighted price target of $1.80 based on a DCF valuation ($2.31/share) and a Revenue Multiple valuation ($1.29/share). (2.3) We are maintaining our Buy rating but decreasing our one-year price target to $1.80 from $1.90.