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  • 01 Feb 16
JANUARY SYNCRUDE PRODUCTION 296,100 BBL/D

Canadian Oil Sands posted January 2016 Syncrude production results to its website late Monday. Syncrude production averaged 296,100 bbl/d for the month. We had forecast 200,000 bbl/d. Evidently we had been assuming a slower recovery from the Coker 8-2 turnaround that began in December. We suspect January volumes also benefited from flush production that typically occurs at Syncrude in the weeks immediately after a coker turnaround is completed.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 25 Jan 16
4Q15e Preview, Liquidity Analysis, & Bitumen Pricing Update

4Q15 results will be ugly, but 1Q16e is obviously shaping up to be much worse. We anticipate further capex budget reductions and have moved capex estimates below current guidance for several companies. Bitumen prices are single digits. If they go negative we suspect some bitumen producing projects could curtail output at least modestly. Liquidity Analysis: futures strip pricing would imply massive debt increases in 2016e-2017e for most names, but most names have sufficient liquidity arranged. We have reduced our ECA target price by US$2.00/share to more appropriately reflect commitments associated with non-core assets.

Companies: CVE HSE IMO SU CNQ ECA ATH MEG PXX COS

  • 19 Jan 16
Suncor Increases Bid for COS

We are changing our COS ranking to Tender, with our new COS target price of $10.65/share based on a SU/COS exchange ratio of 0.28x from Suncor’s bid and our Suncor target price of $38.00/share. On a risk adjusted basis, we believe Suncor’s amended offer is fair to COS shareholders.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands Suncor Energy

  • 18 Jan 16
COS BOARD AND SEYMOUR SCHULICH AGREE TO INCREASED BID BY SUNCOR

Market Impact: We expect COS shares to trade close to the improved offer's 0.28 (COS/SU) exchange ratio, compared to January 15 closing share prices which implied a ratio of 0.240x. Suncor and COS announced this morning that both boards have agreed to a higher bid of 0.28 SU shares per COS share (previously 0.25 SU shares), with Mr. Seymour Schulich also committed to tendering his shares (~5%).

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 11 Jan 16
DEMANDS DISCLOSURE OF SU BID TENDER RESULTS

Canadian Oil Sands issued a press release this morning, stating that it believes Suncor has an obligation to disclose the results of the tender process to date, and claiming that results to date were an "overwhelming rejection" of the bid, even though right now only Suncor has the information on the tender results.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 10 Jan 16
SUNCOR EXTENDS OFFER TO JANUARY 27TH

We expect the gap between COS's share price and the 0.25 bid ratio to close slightly on Monday morning (the share price ratio was 0.225x as of the close Friday), as Suncor's extension of the bid likely implies that the majority of shares have tendered, and that Suncor believes that getting the required two-thirds of COS shares tendered is within reach.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 04 Jan 16
STRATEGIC ALTERNATIVES PROCESS COMPLETE, BOARD RECOMMENDS INDEPENDENCE

Market Impact: Neutral. The strategic alternatives review failed to yield an alternative that the Board deemed superior to remaining "as is". We expect Suncor to announce the results of the tender offer late this week.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 04 Jan 16
DECEMBER 2015 SYNCRUDE PRODUCTION 238,800 BBL/D

Market Impact: Neutral. COS disclosed during market hours on Monday that Syncrude gross production volumes averaged 238.8 mbbl/d in December, surpassing our expectation of 210 mbbl/d, but given the pending bid from Suncor to acquire COS which is open until this Friday, we do not expect December production results to materially impact COS' stock price. December production was impacted by a previously disclosed unplanned turnaround of Coker 8-2.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 14 Dec 15
Revised Commodity Price Forecasts – Impact on Canadian Integrated Oils, Senior E&Ps, Oilsands

FirstEnergy has reduced its 2016e WTI oil price forecast from US$57.00/bbl to US$49.75/bbl, and also reduced its natural gas price forecasts going forward. We have updated our estimates and target prices, also incorporating this past week’s guidance and news disclosures. Given no significant changes to our oil price forecasts for 2017e+, and the predominance of long life oil producing assets within this group of companies, our target prices have only been reduced modestly, while we have made no changes to rankings, which continue to be biased towards stocks that should benefit the most from a recovery in oil prices.

Companies: CVE HSE IMO SU CNQ ECA ATH COS MEG PXX

  • 08 Dec 15
CANADIAN OIL SANDS LIMITED (COS) - UNPLANNED WINTER TURNAROUND FOR COKER 8-2

Market Impact: Arguably slightly positive as we think this news increases the odds that Suncor's offer gets approved by COS's shareholders. We are reducing our target price to fall in line with Suncor's 0.25 share exchange ratio offer. Relative to our Suncor target price of $39.00/share, this equates to a COS target price of $9.75/share, although based on Suncor's closing price Tuesday, the 0.25 ratio implies $8.74/share for COS.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 04 Dec 15
SUNCOR EXTENDS COS BID TO JANUARY 8TH, 2016

Market Impact: Slightly Positive.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 02 Dec 15
2016 Budget & Shareholder Rights Plan Update

COS’s 2016e guidance update yielded capex guidance modestly below our prior forecasts. Offsetting this, we have increased our royalty expense forecasts. We expect Suncor to extend its 0.25 share bid to January 4 in response to the ASC’s ruling. We continue to expect this bid will not get the two-thirds shareholder approval required, but that Suncor was planning for this and will raise its offer. We are reducing our COS target price from $12.50 to $11.70/share, to reflect a 0.30 share exchange ratio relative to our Suncor target price (previously based on a 0.32 share exchange ratio).

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 01 Dec 15
2016E GUIDANCE AND ASC DECISION ON RIGHTS PLAN

Market Impact: Likely negative given heightened risk that Suncor may or may not extend its bid to January 4th. However we fully expect Suncor's interest in acquiring COS will remain, and we expect Suncor to extend its bid. COS's 2016 cost guidance was in line with our forecasts, while capex guidance was lower than consensus.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 26 Nov 15
ASC HEARING TODAY - FOUR HAVE SIGNED CONFIDENTIALITY AGREEMENTS

Market Impact: Likely neutral. We believe the market would expect certain entities to take a hard look at COS, and will not be surprised that four entities have signed confidentiality agreements.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 03 Nov 15
3Q15 – Costs Fall

3Q15 financial results were better than expected (realized prices, operating costs). There may be more room to move our cost forecasts lower, if 3Q15 costs are reflective of the go-forward run rate, but for now our figures are relatively consistent with updated 2015 guidance. While our target price has increased by $0.65/share, it continues to reflect our view that Suncor will eventually increase its bid to the same 0.32 share exchange ratio offered to COS’s Board in April.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands

Research, Charts & Company Announcements

Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Canadian Oil Sands. We currently have 35 research reports from 1 professional analysts.

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Date Source Announcement
30Nov15 22:40 MKW ASC Delivers a Major Win for Canadian Oil Sands Shareholders as It Endorses Need for More Time in Response to Suncor's Unnecessarily Hurried Hostile Bid
25Nov15 23:00 MKW Canadian Oil Sands Posts Documents Filed With the ASC
16Nov15 11:00 MKW Canadian Oil Sands to Announce 2016 Budget
12Nov15 21:40 MKW Canadian Oil Sands Advises Shareholders to Ignore Suncor's Scare Tactics and Attempt to Mask Deficiencies of Substantially Undervalued Bid
29Oct15 20:05 MKW Canadian Oil Sands Reports Over $1 Billion of Cost Savings Achieved at Syncrude Year to Date
19Oct15 11:44 MKW Canadian Oil Sands' Board Unanimously Recommends Shareholders Reject Undervalued, Opportunistic and Exploitive Suncor Offer
07Oct15 21:26 MKW TSX Defers Consideration of Canadian Oil Sands New Shareholder Rights Plan
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  • 25 Mar 20
LIBERUM: Sylvania Platinum* - Best placed miner to weather the storm

Sylvania's share price has fallen 53% since its peaked on the 21st Feb, as the global economy hit the brakes. The short term demand outlook for PGMs is miserable, with supply chains breaking down as both luxury goods and car sales sales collapse.

Companies: Sylvania Platinum
  • 30 Mar 20
Cenkos: Oil & Gas Sector --

Oil declined for a fifth straight week amid a one-two punch from collapsing demand due to the coronavirus crisis and ballooning supply from producers vying for market share. Futures in New York slumped 4.8% on Friday and are poised for the biggest quarterly drop on record as weak demand and an onslaught of supply roil markets. Refineries across the globe are curbing consumption as fuel use declines with people staying home. Meanwhile, major trader Trafigura Group expects as much as 1 billion barrels to be sent into storage tanks. More oil is headed into stockpiles as the Russia-Saudi war for market share that exacerbated crude's crash this month shows no sign of abating. The kingdom held firm on Friday, saying it hasn't had any contacts with Moscow about output cuts or on enlarging the OPEC+ alliance of producers. Russia also doubled down, with Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin saying oil at $25 a barrel is unpleasant, but not a catastrophe for Moscow. US crude has tumbled about 65% so far this quarter. The crash has crippled domestic producers who are forced to cut production for the first time in 35 years. The International Energy Agency this week warned that global demand was in “free fall” amid coronavirus lockdowns. Meanwhile, Iraq -- OPEC's second-biggest producer -- will allow national oil companies to boost their output and export without imposing any ceiling. Algeria has asked for an emergency OPEC board meeting to discuss the cuts. It comes as one of the world's largest supertanker owners said that ships are being filled with crude at a record pace, as land storage rapidly diminishes. Prices:  West Texas Intermediate fell $1.09 to settle at $21.51 a barrel in New York on Friday. Prices dropped 4.1% this week.  Brent crude lost $1.41 to settle at $24.93 a barrel.  Swaps markets show that physical crude is selling several dollars below benchmark prices. The signs of storage starting to fill are growing, too. Inland tanks for heating oil in Germany are now full, while Pakistan banned oil imports on Thursday because its stockpiles are now sufficiently built up. Rigzone.

Companies: FOG PVR 88E DGOC EME POS TRIN UOG

  • 02 Apr 20
Cenkos: Shearwater Group Plc -- Resilient cyber performance

Shearwater sells resilience and today's trading update shows us how resilient demand has been for its products and services. The Group has swung to EBITDA profitability and cash flow is well ahead of expectations. The macro themes of cyber security and remote working are supportive of robust demand levels going forward. We are maintaining our forecasts. Buy.

Companies: Shearwater Group
  • 30 Mar 20
WHI Equity Research: i3 Energy (I3E)

Strategic Production Acquisition and TSX Listing i3 Energy announced today that is has entered an option agreement to acquire all of the outstanding shares of TSX listed Toscana Energy Income Corporation. Toscana produced on average 1,065 boe/d in 2019 and has 2P reserves of 4.65 mmboe of which 55% consists of oil (and natural gas liquids) and 45% consists of natural gas. Toscana's low-decline production is located in Western Canada. Toscana's lands include a very large holding over one of Western Canada's leading new oil plays targeting the Clearwater formation. i3 Energy has acquired the entirety of Toscana's $C28.2M of senior and junior secured debt for $C3.4M representing a price of $C0.12 per dollar of outstanding debt. i3 is now Toscana's secured lender. The debt purchase was funded with i3 Energy's existing cash resources. i3 Energy has agreed to issue up to 4,399,224 of its shares, representing circa 4% of i3 Energy's existing share capital to acquire the entirety of Toscana's shares, representing a market value of circa $C0.55M based on the market values of 27 March 2020. We believe the announcement represents a positive and transformational change for i3 Energy.

Companies: I3 Energy
  • 27 Mar 20
Cenkos: Diversified Gas & Oil Plc -- In a league of its own

Diversified Gas & Oil is emerging as a new model for the E&P market, balancing low fixed costs with efficient operations to generate consistent cash flows. Since the Company's foundation, DGO's strategy has remained unchanged, delivering stable production, whilst maintaining capital discipline to deliver cash flows and shareholder returns. Efficient operations combined with low fixed costs means DGO can deliver strong margins at low prices - vital in the current environment. The DGO model does not follow that of its capital intensive North American “peers” and nor does it follow that of its international London listed “peers”, putting DGO in a league of its own. With many of the Permian oil producers and Appalachian gas producers cutting back on capex in the current price environment, we see a recovery in the gas prices, with the current oversupply of gas turning into an undersupply as production and stores fall away. We believe the M&A market will provide a great opportunity for DGO over the next 12-24 months, with inevitably some E&P's not being able to survive the current low price environment. We update our model incorporating the extension of the Company's asset retirement agreement with the state of Ohio, the latest forward price curves and the GBP/USD exchange rate, increasing our price target to 148p/share (from 121p/share) and our BUY recommendation.

Companies: Diversified Gas & Oil
  • 01 Apr 20
WHI First Light: Caledonia Mining (CMCL) & Touchstar (TST)

Caledonia today announces that it has taken the prudent decision to defer its approval for the payment of the second quarterly dividend (7.5c/sh - $0.9m - 7% of declared Caledonia cash). The Blanket mine in Zimbabwe remains in operation (at a slightly reduced capacity to secure Covid-19 social distancing) and the mine site remains well-stocked with supplies, so despite the current difficulties getting supplies from South Africa production at the mine can continue for some time to come; 2-3 months in our opinion, if the supply chain from South Africa ceased altogether. Touchstar is a supplier of mobile data computing solutions and managed services to a variety of industrial sectors. This morning, the group has released an update in light of COVID-19. The Board reports that it has taken swift action to re-engineer processes to adhere to government guidelines, whilst maintaining client service levels. Q1 2020 trading is reported to have been ‘broadly' in line, with revenue growth of 40% from continuing operations and outstanding orders to ship to customers in the coming months. Q1 was cash neutral, which follows on from the RNS on 5 February, of a net cash position of £849k as at 31 December 2019.

Companies: Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc Com Shs Npv Touchstar

  • 02 Apr 20
LIBERUM: ilika* - Reinstating coverage after growth placing

We are reinstating coverage with a Buy rating and price target of 50p following the recent £15m share placing to fund production scale-up for micro-batteries. Our TP reflects a DCF of the micro-battery business which has sufficient customer interest to achieve over £12m annual sales by FY23 and £25m later this decade we believe, generating EBITDA of £1.7m and £7m respectively.

Companies: Ilika
  • 30 Mar 20
WHI First Light: Caledonia Mining (CMCL)

Caledonia today provides an update on its Blanket mine in Zimbabwe in the light of the full lockdown other than “for essential services” from today as ordered by President Mnangagwa. The mine is still operating as the authorities will grant exemptions for businesses which demonstrate they can operate in a manner that contributes to the management of the spread of Covid-19 infections. Caledonia has applied for this exemption.

Companies: Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc Com Shs Npv
  • 02 Mar 20
THE MONTHLY March 2020

Much of the UK’s privatisation programme took place between the early 1980s and the mid-1990s: subsequent sales have been few. Undoubtedly, privatisation attracted many private investors to the market, many for the first time.

Companies: AVO AGY ARBB ARIX BUR CLIG DNL FLTA GDR NSF PCA PIN PXC PHP RE/ RECI RMDL STX SCE SIXH TRX SHED VTA

  • 27 Mar 20
Hurricane Energy

Worker evacuated from Lancaster FPSO

Companies: Hurricane Energy
  • 30 Mar 20
Quadrise Fuels International - Business development intensifying

Quadrise’s business development activity has intensified in the last nine months, with progress on opportunities in Morocco, South America, Saudi Arabia (KSA) and the marine sector. COVID-19 will potentially extend the length of time taken to complete trials. However, management notes that the current low oil prices are not likely to have a material impact on interest in using its innovative MSAR fuel as a heavy fuel oil substitute.

Companies: Quadrise Fuels International
  • 30 Mar 20
Strategic financing from IIG

Ironveld has signed a range of conditional financing agreements with Inclusive Investment Group (IIG) that mark a step change in its ability to advance its iron, vanadium and titanium project in the prolific Bushveld Complex of South Africa. The agreements will see IIG provide Ironveld with $3.2m in both debt and equity with IIG to take a stake of up to 46.8% in the company subject to certain shareholder approvals. This locks IIG in as a meaningful strategic partner and should allow Ironveld to progress Phase I of its project while it seeks the broader financing required to bring it in to development

Companies: Ironveld
  • 02 Apr 20
Genel Energy

October 2019 Tawke and Taq Taq payments received

Companies: Genel Energy
  • 21 Oct 19
Quarterly Research Outlook Autumn 2019

Following continued delays of a Brexit agreement, few sectors within the UK market have remained attractive to investors despite low valuations. One sector which has continued to outperform despite the political drama has been the UK video gaming sector (henceforth UK gaming), which we are fans of. We believe a combination of sector-leading growth, strong cash conversion and timely cyclical positioning support our positive view on the UK video gaming sector.

Companies: ABBY AMS ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CDM CSRT TIDE CYAN DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPO FDEV GTLY GENL GHH GRI GEEC GKP HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KAPE KEYS KWS KCT KGH LAM LIT LOK MACF MANO MOD OXIG PCA PANR APP SRE PHC PMO RBW RMM RBGP REDD RSW RNO ROR SUS SCPA SEN SHG SOLG SOM SUMO TM17 INCE TWD TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF

  • 16 Mar 20
Cenkos: Oil & Gas Sector - Diversified Gas & Oil, UK Oil & Gas, Trinity Exploration & Production, Tullow Oil, Cairn Energy, Pharos Energy, Vaalco Energy, Transglobe Energy, Valeura Energy, Touchstone Exploration, Serica Energy, Gran Tierra Energy, EnQuest

Oil posted the biggest weekly plunge since 2008, capping its most dramatic week in recent memory as major producers prepare to drench the market with supply just as the coronavirus crushes demand. But prices jumped following the close, after President Donald Trump said the U.S. would fill the nation's strategic reserve. Losses for the week totalled 23% after the collapse of talks between members of the OPEC+ group triggered the biggest crash in a generation. Instead of reaching a deal to cut output to mitigate the fallout from the virus, producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia embarked on a war for market share and pledged to pump more.

Companies: TGL TXP VLU EGY GTE CNE DGOC ENQ SQZ UKOG TRIN TLW PHAR