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  • 01 Feb 16

JANUARY SYNCRUDE PRODUCTION 296,100 BBL/D

Canadian Oil Sands posted January 2016 Syncrude production results to its website late Monday. Syncrude production averaged 296,100 bbl/d for the month. We had forecast 200,000 bbl/d. Evidently we had been assuming a slower recovery from the Coker 8-2 turnaround that began in December. We suspect January volumes also benefited from flush production that typically occurs at Syncrude in the weeks immediately after a coker turnaround is completed.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 25 Jan 16

4Q15e Preview, Liquidity Analysis, & Bitumen Pricing Update

4Q15 results will be ugly, but 1Q16e is obviously shaping up to be much worse. We anticipate further capex budget reductions and have moved capex estimates below current guidance for several companies. Bitumen prices are single digits. If they go negative we suspect some bitumen producing projects could curtail output at least modestly. Liquidity Analysis: futures strip pricing would imply massive debt increases in 2016e-2017e for most names, but most names have sufficient liquidity arranged. We have reduced our ECA target price by US$2.00/share to more appropriately reflect commitments associated with non-core assets.

Companies: CVE HSE IMO SU CNQ ECA ATH MEG PXX COS

  • 19 Jan 16

Suncor Increases Bid for COS

We are changing our COS ranking to Tender, with our new COS target price of $10.65/share based on a SU/COS exchange ratio of 0.28x from Suncor’s bid and our Suncor target price of $38.00/share. On a risk adjusted basis, we believe Suncor’s amended offer is fair to COS shareholders.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands Suncor Energy

  • 18 Jan 16

COS BOARD AND SEYMOUR SCHULICH AGREE TO INCREASED BID BY SUNCOR

Market Impact: We expect COS shares to trade close to the improved offer's 0.28 (COS/SU) exchange ratio, compared to January 15 closing share prices which implied a ratio of 0.240x. Suncor and COS announced this morning that both boards have agreed to a higher bid of 0.28 SU shares per COS share (previously 0.25 SU shares), with Mr. Seymour Schulich also committed to tendering his shares (~5%).

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 11 Jan 16

DEMANDS DISCLOSURE OF SU BID TENDER RESULTS

Canadian Oil Sands issued a press release this morning, stating that it believes Suncor has an obligation to disclose the results of the tender process to date, and claiming that results to date were an "overwhelming rejection" of the bid, even though right now only Suncor has the information on the tender results.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 10 Jan 16

SUNCOR EXTENDS OFFER TO JANUARY 27TH

We expect the gap between COS's share price and the 0.25 bid ratio to close slightly on Monday morning (the share price ratio was 0.225x as of the close Friday), as Suncor's extension of the bid likely implies that the majority of shares have tendered, and that Suncor believes that getting the required two-thirds of COS shares tendered is within reach.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 04 Jan 16

DECEMBER 2015 SYNCRUDE PRODUCTION 238,800 BBL/D

Market Impact: Neutral. COS disclosed during market hours on Monday that Syncrude gross production volumes averaged 238.8 mbbl/d in December, surpassing our expectation of 210 mbbl/d, but given the pending bid from Suncor to acquire COS which is open until this Friday, we do not expect December production results to materially impact COS' stock price. December production was impacted by a previously disclosed unplanned turnaround of Coker 8-2.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 04 Jan 16

STRATEGIC ALTERNATIVES PROCESS COMPLETE, BOARD RECOMMENDS INDEPENDENCE

Market Impact: Neutral. The strategic alternatives review failed to yield an alternative that the Board deemed superior to remaining "as is". We expect Suncor to announce the results of the tender offer late this week.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 14 Dec 15

Revised Commodity Price Forecasts – Impact on Canadian Integrated Oils, Senior E&Ps, Oilsands

FirstEnergy has reduced its 2016e WTI oil price forecast from US$57.00/bbl to US$49.75/bbl, and also reduced its natural gas price forecasts going forward. We have updated our estimates and target prices, also incorporating this past week’s guidance and news disclosures. Given no significant changes to our oil price forecasts for 2017e+, and the predominance of long life oil producing assets within this group of companies, our target prices have only been reduced modestly, while we have made no changes to rankings, which continue to be biased towards stocks that should benefit the most from a recovery in oil prices.

Companies: CVE HSE IMO SU CNQ ECA ATH COS MEG PXX

  • 08 Dec 15

CANADIAN OIL SANDS LIMITED (COS) - UNPLANNED WINTER TURNAROUND FOR COKER 8-2

Market Impact: Arguably slightly positive as we think this news increases the odds that Suncor's offer gets approved by COS's shareholders. We are reducing our target price to fall in line with Suncor's 0.25 share exchange ratio offer. Relative to our Suncor target price of $39.00/share, this equates to a COS target price of $9.75/share, although based on Suncor's closing price Tuesday, the 0.25 ratio implies $8.74/share for COS.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 04 Dec 15

SUNCOR EXTENDS COS BID TO JANUARY 8TH, 2016

Market Impact: Slightly Positive.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 02 Dec 15

2016 Budget & Shareholder Rights Plan Update

COS’s 2016e guidance update yielded capex guidance modestly below our prior forecasts. Offsetting this, we have increased our royalty expense forecasts. We expect Suncor to extend its 0.25 share bid to January 4 in response to the ASC’s ruling. We continue to expect this bid will not get the two-thirds shareholder approval required, but that Suncor was planning for this and will raise its offer. We are reducing our COS target price from $12.50 to $11.70/share, to reflect a 0.30 share exchange ratio relative to our Suncor target price (previously based on a 0.32 share exchange ratio).

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 01 Dec 15

2016E GUIDANCE AND ASC DECISION ON RIGHTS PLAN

Market Impact: Likely negative given heightened risk that Suncor may or may not extend its bid to January 4th. However we fully expect Suncor's interest in acquiring COS will remain, and we expect Suncor to extend its bid. COS's 2016 cost guidance was in line with our forecasts, while capex guidance was lower than consensus.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 26 Nov 15

ASC HEARING TODAY - FOUR HAVE SIGNED CONFIDENTIALITY AGREEMENTS

Market Impact: Likely neutral. We believe the market would expect certain entities to take a hard look at COS, and will not be surprised that four entities have signed confidentiality agreements.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 03 Nov 15

3Q15 – Costs Fall

3Q15 financial results were better than expected (realized prices, operating costs). There may be more room to move our cost forecasts lower, if 3Q15 costs are reflective of the go-forward run rate, but for now our figures are relatively consistent with updated 2015 guidance. While our target price has increased by $0.65/share, it continues to reflect our view that Suncor will eventually increase its bid to the same 0.32 share exchange ratio offered to COS’s Board in April.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands

Research, Charts & Company Announcements

Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Canadian Oil Sands. We currently have 35 research reports from 1 professional analysts.

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Date Source Announcement
30Nov15 22:40 MKW ASC Delivers a Major Win for Canadian Oil Sands Shareholders as It Endorses Need for More Time in Response to Suncor's Unnecessarily Hurried Hostile Bid
25Nov15 23:00 MKW Canadian Oil Sands Posts Documents Filed With the ASC
16Nov15 11:00 MKW Canadian Oil Sands to Announce 2016 Budget
12Nov15 21:40 MKW Canadian Oil Sands Advises Shareholders to Ignore Suncor's Scare Tactics and Attempt to Mask Deficiencies of Substantially Undervalued Bid
29Oct15 20:05 MKW Canadian Oil Sands Reports Over $1 Billion of Cost Savings Achieved at Syncrude Year to Date
19Oct15 11:44 MKW Canadian Oil Sands' Board Unanimously Recommends Shareholders Reject Undervalued, Opportunistic and Exploitive Suncor Offer
07Oct15 21:26 MKW TSX Defers Consideration of Canadian Oil Sands New Shareholder Rights Plan
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  • 12 Sep 19

Hurricane Energy - Lincoln Crestal positive flow test

This morning Hurricane Energy announced the flow test results from its Lincoln Crestal well, the second well of a three-well drilling campaign in the Greater Warwick Area (GWA). The well tested at a maximum stable flow rate of 9,800bopd using electrical submersible pumps (ESPs). The well flowed at an average rate of 4,682bopd under natural conditions and no formation water was produced. The well will now be suspended, with the intention that it will be used for production via tie-back to Lancaster’s Aoka Mizu FPSO in 2020, subject to further work, regulatory consent and final investment decision by the joint venture. Production from the tie-back would generate reservoir data to be used in planning future phases of development of GWA. The drilling rig will now move to the location for the third and last well of the 2019 drilling programme, Warwick West. Our latest risked valuation of Hurricane Energy stands at 102.8p/share, with GWA tie-back being valued at 3.5p/share and GWA FFD at 21.6p/share. Hurricane Energy is currently trading at 49.0p/share.

Companies: Hurricane Energy
  • 10 Sep 19

Cenkos: Trinity Exploration & Production Plc - Interim Results

This morning, Trinity released in H1/19 interim results, delivering another strong performance as the Company continues to increase base production whilst maintaining effective cost controls. Production averaged 3,008bopd for H1/19, up 9% year-on-year (YoY), generating revenues of US$32.2m on an average realised oil price of US$59.1/bbl. The Company's financial performance was impressive, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by 20% YoY to US$11.2m, facilitating a cash plus working surplus of US$22.0m at 30th June 2019. Post period, as part of Company's H2/19 drilling campaign, the Company has drilled three wells, including the Company's first High Angle Well (HAW), which successfully intersected net oil reservoir sandstone 1.5x the thickness of a conventional vertical well was prognosed to deliver on this target. The H2/19 programme will include up to eight new onshore infill wells, with drilling expected to increase base level production into 2020. We reiterate our BUY recommendation given today's strong financial and operational results.

Companies: Trinity Exploration & Production
  • 23 Jul 19

Quarterly Research Outlook - Summer 2019

In January, we provided a list of 11 stocks for 2019 that we believed would perform strongly with attractive catalysts that could lead to material outperformance. In this Quarterly Research Outlook, we revisit these views, analysing what has happened and how the remaining six months of the year could play out.

Companies: AMS ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CALL CSRT TIDE CYAN DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPO FST GTLY GENL GRI GEEC GKP HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR HYR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KAPE KEYS KCT KGH LAM LIT LOK MACF MANO PCA PANR PXC PHC PMO RBW RMM REDD RSW RNO RKH RBGP ROR SUS SCPA SHG SOLG SOM TWD TRAK TSG TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF

  • 02 Jul 19

Where’s the Value?

Warren Buffett once said that as an investor, it is wise to be ‘fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful’. Fear is not in short supply right now.

Companies: OPM ALU ANCR BLV CONN CRC FDL GATC HAT LEK MMH MCB MWE NXR NTBR NOG PAF PEG RFX SRC TEF TEG TPT VTU WYN XLM

  • 10 Sep 19

More steps in the right direction

Petropavlovsk announced its H1 results this morning (a trading update was given on 23/7/2019). The company has also published its presentation to be delivered at its Capital Market Day today. Overall both the results and the messaging are strong reflecting the three critical achievements the company has delivered over the last 12 months towards full corporate recovery namely: successful start up of the POX operation, stabilization of management and board, and overhaul of the IRC exposure (including a commiserate fee for the US$240 million guarantee, amounting to US$8.9 million p.a. including services). The company now has “the luxury” of optimizing the expansion of its production base via numerous options, tightening its cost control therein, widening its exploration footprint and creating some “auction” tension in its stated target of selling its IRC stake. Meanwhile the US$1500/oz gold price environment of H2/2019 aligned with rising production and falling costs should allow material deleveraging of the balance sheet.

Companies: Petropavlovsk
  • 12 Sep 19

PowerHouse Energy Group - Fuelling the hydrogen economy

Over the last 18 months PowerHouse and its partners Peel Environmental and Waste2Tricity (W2T) have put most of the building blocks in place for commissioning the first commercial distributed modular generation (DMG) waste-to-energy plant by the end of FY20. This potentially represents the first of dozens of small sites in the UK and abroad using unrecyclable plastic that would otherwise go to landfill to generate hydrogen for electric vehicles and electricity.

Companies: Powerhouse Energy Group
  • 10 Sep 19

Still very high impact drilling but higher risk

The upper Captain sands at the Liberator well 13/23c-9 are pinched out. These were the main targets of this well, the purpose of which was to prove the location of a development well next year in this 2P reserves area. The well is interpreted to have missed the Captain upper sands channel which is laterally thin in this area. Further data is required to locate the exact position of these upper sands. This requires recalibrating the seismic and remapping the reservoir in order to define the position of next year’s first development well. The fact that the lower Captain sands were encountered shows that the channel is working and depositing sands.

Companies: I3 Energy
  • 11 Sep 19

FLASH: Harvey update in the UK

The Harvey well encountered a 49 feet gas column. The company is now assessing volumes and commerciality with more details expected to be provided within a period of about six weeks.The well has confirmed a discovery albeit at the very low end of expectations with regards to volume.

Companies: Independent Oil & Gas
  • 02 Sep 19

LIBERUM: Sylvania Platinum* - Results beat, Grasvally disposal but light on dividend

Sylvania has reported FY19 results (June Y/E) of $6.37/sh versus expectations of $5.95/sh due to a lighter tax expense than assumed. They have entered into a binding agreement to sell Grasvally for R115m ($7.6m at current FX), which should be settled in the next eight months.

Companies: Sylvania Platinum
  • 09 Sep 19

FLASH: Very good results at the first Ortoire well in Trinidad

The Coho-1 well encountered four gas-bearing packages in the Herrera member of the Mid-Miocene aged Cipero formation. Two sand packages with approximately 64 feet of net gas pay were encountered in the upper Herrera Gr7b section. The Gr7b sand packages correlate to the offsetting Corosan-1 well drilled in 2001, where similar sands tested natural gas in excess of 8 mmcf/d. Two further prospective gas sand packages in the Herrera Gr7c section contain a combined 41 feet of probable net gas pay which was not tested in historical offsetting wells.

Companies: Touchstone Exploration
  • 11 Sep 19

Tilapia sidetrack update

AAOG’s preparations for the Tilapia sidetrack have commenced and discussions to secure a rig for November are continuing. The shares have languished in the past month, which is not helpful for the funds expected to be received as part of the Investor Sharing Agreement entered into in July. Nevertheless, there remains significant upside potential from a successful sidetrack and test on the middle Djeno reservoir at Tilapia.

Companies: Anglo African Oil & Gas
  • 16 Sep 19

£5m fund raise

Savannah Resources has announced that it is raising £5m at 2p, including £3.76m through a placing and a further investment of £1.24m from major shareholder Al Marjan. The company’s principal project, the Mina do Barroso lithium project, is being rapidly advanced, although experience from recent spodumene mine startups in Australia has shown that there is a need to fine tune the plant design so that it can successfully process each individual deposit. As a result of the need for additional test work, the Feasibility Study is now expected to be completed in Q2 2020. We have reduced our price target to 15p, reflecting the additional shares and the current spodumene price.

Companies: Savannah Resources
  • 06 Aug 19

LIBERUM: Sirius Minerals* - Bond offering delayed, to return in early September

Sirius announced this morning it has suspended its bond issue until market conditions have stabilised. The bond was due to price this week, but has coincided with an escalation in the China/US trade war, a devaulation of the RMB through 7 and a smaller than anticipated cut in the Fed funds rate which combined to drive a sharp equity/commodity sell off and risk-off in high-yield markets.

Companies: Sirius Minerals
  • 19 Aug 19

PowerHouse Energy Group - Expanding pipeline with Peel Environmental

PowerHouse Energy (PHE) has signed a collaboration agreement with Peel Environmental. This seeks to develop 11 DMG facilities at sites in the UK, primarily on Peel’s land, including the previously announced project at Peel’s Protos Energy Park on Merseyside. The collaboration is part of Peel’s strategy to develop ‘Plastic Parks’ where waste plastics that cannot be recycled are used to generate electric power and hydrogen rather than being sent to landfill.

Companies: Powerhouse Energy Group
  • 09 Sep 19

The turn-around has begun

Serinus started producing its first commercial gas in Romania in April 2019 from the Moftinu gas field. Production from the field has grown to 10.5 mmcf/d in July 2019. We expect production will stabilised around 11 mmcf/d at which rate we estimate the field will generate cashflow per annum of $12.8M. The company intends to grow near-term oil production in Tunisia by investing modestly in workovers and artificial lift. From 352 boe/d in 2018, we forecast production from Tunisia will grow to 860 boe/d in 2020, which we estimate would generate $7.6M of free cash flow per annum. In the mid-term, we believe that growth in Romania will be achieved by i) drilling two infill wells and by ii) replicating the success of Moftinu with look-alike shallow gas fields. In Tunisia we expect that in the mid-term growth will be achieved by drilling infill wells at the company’s Sabria field. We currently see fair value of 15.6 p/sh in Serinus.

Companies: SERINUS ENERGY