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  • 01 Feb 16
JANUARY SYNCRUDE PRODUCTION 296,100 BBL/D

Canadian Oil Sands posted January 2016 Syncrude production results to its website late Monday. Syncrude production averaged 296,100 bbl/d for the month. We had forecast 200,000 bbl/d. Evidently we had been assuming a slower recovery from the Coker 8-2 turnaround that began in December. We suspect January volumes also benefited from flush production that typically occurs at Syncrude in the weeks immediately after a coker turnaround is completed.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 25 Jan 16
4Q15e Preview, Liquidity Analysis, & Bitumen Pricing Update

4Q15 results will be ugly, but 1Q16e is obviously shaping up to be much worse. We anticipate further capex budget reductions and have moved capex estimates below current guidance for several companies. Bitumen prices are single digits. If they go negative we suspect some bitumen producing projects could curtail output at least modestly. Liquidity Analysis: futures strip pricing would imply massive debt increases in 2016e-2017e for most names, but most names have sufficient liquidity arranged. We have reduced our ECA target price by US$2.00/share to more appropriately reflect commitments associated with non-core assets.

Companies: CVE IMO SU CNQ ECA ATH MEG PXX COS

  • 19 Jan 16
Suncor Increases Bid for COS

We are changing our COS ranking to Tender, with our new COS target price of $10.65/share based on a SU/COS exchange ratio of 0.28x from Suncor’s bid and our Suncor target price of $38.00/share. On a risk adjusted basis, we believe Suncor’s amended offer is fair to COS shareholders.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands (COS:TSE)Suncor Energy Inc. (SU:TSE)
  • 18 Jan 16
COS BOARD AND SEYMOUR SCHULICH AGREE TO INCREASED BID BY SUNCOR

Market Impact: We expect COS shares to trade close to the improved offer's 0.28 (COS/SU) exchange ratio, compared to January 15 closing share prices which implied a ratio of 0.240x. Suncor and COS announced this morning that both boards have agreed to a higher bid of 0.28 SU shares per COS share (previously 0.25 SU shares), with Mr. Seymour Schulich also committed to tendering his shares (~5%).

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 11 Jan 16
DEMANDS DISCLOSURE OF SU BID TENDER RESULTS

Canadian Oil Sands issued a press release this morning, stating that it believes Suncor has an obligation to disclose the results of the tender process to date, and claiming that results to date were an "overwhelming rejection" of the bid, even though right now only Suncor has the information on the tender results.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 10 Jan 16
SUNCOR EXTENDS OFFER TO JANUARY 27TH

We expect the gap between COS's share price and the 0.25 bid ratio to close slightly on Monday morning (the share price ratio was 0.225x as of the close Friday), as Suncor's extension of the bid likely implies that the majority of shares have tendered, and that Suncor believes that getting the required two-thirds of COS shares tendered is within reach.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 04 Jan 16
STRATEGIC ALTERNATIVES PROCESS COMPLETE, BOARD RECOMMENDS INDEPENDENCE

Market Impact: Neutral. The strategic alternatives review failed to yield an alternative that the Board deemed superior to remaining "as is". We expect Suncor to announce the results of the tender offer late this week.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 04 Jan 16
DECEMBER 2015 SYNCRUDE PRODUCTION 238,800 BBL/D

Market Impact: Neutral. COS disclosed during market hours on Monday that Syncrude gross production volumes averaged 238.8 mbbl/d in December, surpassing our expectation of 210 mbbl/d, but given the pending bid from Suncor to acquire COS which is open until this Friday, we do not expect December production results to materially impact COS' stock price. December production was impacted by a previously disclosed unplanned turnaround of Coker 8-2.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 14 Dec 15
Revised Commodity Price Forecasts – Impact on Canadian Integrated Oils, Senior E&Ps, Oilsands

FirstEnergy has reduced its 2016e WTI oil price forecast from US$57.00/bbl to US$49.75/bbl, and also reduced its natural gas price forecasts going forward. We have updated our estimates and target prices, also incorporating this past week’s guidance and news disclosures. Given no significant changes to our oil price forecasts for 2017e+, and the predominance of long life oil producing assets within this group of companies, our target prices have only been reduced modestly, while we have made no changes to rankings, which continue to be biased towards stocks that should benefit the most from a recovery in oil prices.

Companies: CVE IMO SU CNQ ECA ATH COS MEG PXX

  • 08 Dec 15
CANADIAN OIL SANDS LIMITED (COS) - UNPLANNED WINTER TURNAROUND FOR COKER 8-2

Market Impact: Arguably slightly positive as we think this news increases the odds that Suncor's offer gets approved by COS's shareholders. We are reducing our target price to fall in line with Suncor's 0.25 share exchange ratio offer. Relative to our Suncor target price of $39.00/share, this equates to a COS target price of $9.75/share, although based on Suncor's closing price Tuesday, the 0.25 ratio implies $8.74/share for COS.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 04 Dec 15
SUNCOR EXTENDS COS BID TO JANUARY 8TH, 2016

Market Impact: Slightly Positive.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 02 Dec 15
2016 Budget & Shareholder Rights Plan Update

COS’s 2016e guidance update yielded capex guidance modestly below our prior forecasts. Offsetting this, we have increased our royalty expense forecasts. We expect Suncor to extend its 0.25 share bid to January 4 in response to the ASC’s ruling. We continue to expect this bid will not get the two-thirds shareholder approval required, but that Suncor was planning for this and will raise its offer. We are reducing our COS target price from $12.50 to $11.70/share, to reflect a 0.30 share exchange ratio relative to our Suncor target price (previously based on a 0.32 share exchange ratio).

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 01 Dec 15
2016E GUIDANCE AND ASC DECISION ON RIGHTS PLAN

Market Impact: Likely negative given heightened risk that Suncor may or may not extend its bid to January 4th. However we fully expect Suncor's interest in acquiring COS will remain, and we expect Suncor to extend its bid. COS's 2016 cost guidance was in line with our forecasts, while capex guidance was lower than consensus.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 26 Nov 15
ASC HEARING TODAY - FOUR HAVE SIGNED CONFIDENTIALITY AGREEMENTS

Market Impact: Likely neutral. We believe the market would expect certain entities to take a hard look at COS, and will not be surprised that four entities have signed confidentiality agreements.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 03 Nov 15
3Q15 – Costs Fall

3Q15 financial results were better than expected (realized prices, operating costs). There may be more room to move our cost forecasts lower, if 3Q15 costs are reflective of the go-forward run rate, but for now our figures are relatively consistent with updated 2015 guidance. While our target price has increased by $0.65/share, it continues to reflect our view that Suncor will eventually increase its bid to the same 0.32 share exchange ratio offered to COS’s Board in April.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands

Canadian Oil Sands

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Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Canadian Oil Sands. We currently have 35 research reports from 1 professional analysts.

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Latest News/RNS

(more news)
Date Source Announcement
30Nov15 22:40 MKW ASC Delivers a Major Win for Canadian Oil Sands Shareholders as It Endorses Need for More Time in Response to Suncor's Unnecessarily Hurried Hostile Bid
25Nov15 23:00 MKW Canadian Oil Sands Posts Documents Filed With the ASC
16Nov15 11:00 MKW Canadian Oil Sands to Announce 2016 Budget
12Nov15 21:40 MKW Canadian Oil Sands Advises Shareholders to Ignore Suncor's Scare Tactics and Attempt to Mask Deficiencies of Substantially Undervalued Bid
29Oct15 20:05 MKW Canadian Oil Sands Reports Over $1 Billion of Cost Savings Achieved at Syncrude Year to Date
19Oct15 11:44 MKW Canadian Oil Sands' Board Unanimously Recommends Shareholders Reject Undervalued, Opportunistic and Exploitive Suncor Offer
07Oct15 21:26 MKW TSX Defers Consideration of Canadian Oil Sands New Shareholder Rights Plan
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  • 01 Mar 21
THE MONTHLY March 2021

UK railway privatisation, which was launched in the mid-1990s, has finally turned full circle: the Department of Transport has recently confirmed that its controversial railway franchise system will be scrapped. In this month's feature article, Nigel Hawkins, the Infrastructure analyst at Hardman & Co, examines the 25-year history of railway privatisation and chronicles its ups and its downs. The successes of railway privatisation, such as new rolling stock, are addressed, along with the many shortcomings, which included minimal vertical integration. With the winding up of the franchise system, the UK railway sector is effectively reverting to its former status as a nationalised industry, a shift started with the renationalisation of the collapsed Railtrack – later re-badged as Network Rail – in 2001.

Companies: ARBB BBGI CLIG DNL FLTA ICGT OCI PCA PIN PXC RECI SCE TRX SHED VTA YEW

  • 02 Mar 21
Strong FY20 Results

Shanta Gold (AIM: SHG), the East Africa-focused gold producer has, this morning, released its full year results for 2020. The company previously announced production and operational figures for 2020 alongside group-wide reserves and resources update. As such the figures reported today are in line with our forecasts down to EBITDA level, but generally better than expected elsewhere– see Fig 1. Overall it has clearly been a strong year financially with revenue, EBITDA and EPS up by 31%, 34% and 270% respectively from the previous year. The company has also kept to its promise of a maiden dividend with 0.10p per share payable in April as part of a semi-annual programme.

Companies: Shanta Gold Limited
  • 03 Mar 21
Small Cap Feast

Proposed move to AIM from the main market (standard) by Emmerson (EML.L) to provide Emmerson with access to a market and environment which is more suited, in the Board's view, to the Company's current size and strategy ahead of pivotal period for the Company with the commencement of mine construction at the Khemisset Potash Project expected by end of 2021. Follows recent award of Mining Licence granting Emmerson exclusive right to develop and mine the potash deposit and £5.5m raise to fund ongoing project development work. Subject to EGM on 21st March. Rogue Baron plc have announced its application for admission to the AQSE growth market. Rogue Baron owns five subsidiaries, namely: Shinju Spirits, Inc., Shinju Whiskey LLC, Mazeray Corporation, STI Signature Spirits Group LLC and Legacy Retail Group LLC. The Company’s goal is to build each of its brands that makes them a buyout target. Deal size TBC an expected admission date 12th March 2021. Global review platform, Trustpilot has announced its intention to float on the premium list of the LSE. Trustpilot provides an open platform, which creates a place where businesses and consumers can gain actionable insights and collaborate. Consumers are able to share feedback, at any time, about any business with a website and review feedback left by other consumers. Total revenues were US$64.3 million, US$81.9 million and US$102.0 million for the years ended 31 December 2018, 2019 and 2020, respectively. The Offer would comprise new Shares to be issued by the Company (raising gross proceeds of approximately US$50 million to support Trustpilot's growth plans and repay indebtedness) and an offer of existing Shares to be sold by certain existing shareholders, directors and employees. Timing TBC. In The Style, the e-commerce womenswear fashion brand with an influencer collaboration model, announces their intention to float on AIM. In The Style is a pure-play e-commerce fashion brand with a l customer base of women predominantly aged between 16 and 35. Founded in 2013, the group has delivered £35.4 million net sales and £3.6 million Adjusted EBITDA in the nine months to 31 December 2020, with sales up 159% from £13.7 million for the nine months to 31 December 2019. Admission is expected to take place on or around 17 March 2021. Deal size TBC. Media reports video game firm, Catalis is mulling a London IPO, just over a year after being bought by a private equity firm. Catalis’s accounts are reportedly expected to show revenues increasing to £60m in 2020, up from £43m, with adjusted earnings of £15m. Deal details and timing TBC. tinyBuild— a leading video games publisher and developer with global operations. tinyBuild's strategic focus is in creating longlasting IP by partnering with video games developers, establishing a stable platform on which to build multi-game and multimedia franchises is to join AIM. Offer details TBC. Due mid-March. AMTE Power, a developer and manufacturer of lithium-ion battery cells for specialist markets, announced its intention to seek admission to trading on AIM. Admission is expected to take place during March 2021. The Company intends to raise approximately £7m by way of a placing of new ordinary shares in the capital of the Company. Timing TBC. Samarkand Group Limited, the cross-border eCommerce technology and retail group opening up the world's largest market for brands and retailers, intends to IPO on the Apex Segment Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market. Admission is targeted for March 2021. NextEnergy Renewables to launch an IPO on the Main Market. NREN is a differentiated renewables investment Company that aims to capture the most attractive private renewables and energy transition infrastructure investment opportunities globally. Targeting a £300m raise. NREN is targeting total returns of 9-11 per cent. per annum (net of all fees and expenses but including the Target Dividend and capital appreciation) . The Company's target dividend yield for the first full financial year to 31 December 2022 is 5.5 pence. Due Early March 2021. Digital 9 Infrastructure launch an initial public offering on the Specialist Fund Segment of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange, by way of an initial placing and offer for subscription for a target issue £400m. Digital 9 Infrastructure plc is a newly established, externally managed investment trust. The Company will invest in a range of digital infrastructure assets which deliver a reliable, functioning internet. The IPO Prospectus is expected to be published in March 2021. Team PLC announced their plans for an AIM IPO. Team owns Theta Enhanced Asset Management Ltd, trading as Team Asset Management. This is a Jersey-based active fund manager providing discretionary and advisory portfolio management services to private clients, trusts and charities. Assets under management were GBP291m in November, up from GBP140m in December 2019 . The Company is seeking to raise no less than £5m. The Placing will be priced on a pre-money valuation for the Company of £7m. Targeting March Admission. Fix Price announces its intention to float on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Fix Price is one of the leading variety value retailers globally and the largest in Russia, with more than 4,200 stores. Fix Price has revenues of RUB 190.1bn, RUB 142.9bn and RUB 108.7bn for 2020, 2019 and 2018, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA for the same years was RUB 36.8bn, RUB 27.2bn and RUB 14.2bn, respectively. The Offer would consist of an offering of GDRs by certain existing shareholders of the Company. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC announced its prospectus has been approved by the FCA. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC is a newly established, externally managed closed-ended investment company. The Company will provide project finance to content makers and commissioners in the global television and film production industry via senior loans secured against pre-sold intellectual property (IP) rights. GPEIT's investment objective is to provide Shareholders with dividend income and modest capital growth through exposure to media content finance. According to media reports, Deliveroo is expecting to release its IPO plans on 8th March. The company raised more than $180m in January with a valuation of more than $7bn.

Companies: LND GDR GAMA SOLI SHED RLE CRU WRES SBI MNO

  • 01 Mar 21
Capital Access' Hot Off The Wires - The Day Ahead

Today's news & views, plus announcements from MRW, BNZL, HICL, AGK, SEPL, SEIT, SDY, BGO, SHED

Companies: BGO SEIT SEPL

  • 02 Mar 21
Hurricane Energy - Lancaster activity update

Lancaster activity update

Companies: Hurricane Energy Plc
  • 02 Mar 21
WHI First Light: Pantheon Resources (PANR) - Operational Update

Pantheon Resources has this morning announced that the better than expected well-logs from the Kuparuk formation warranted a change in plan for the testing of that formation, namely, from an open hole test to a more rigorous cased hole test (with a 4 ½ inch liner). However, due to equipment failures and technical issues, the formation started to become damaged in its current location and as such it was not possible to set the casing string (4 ½ inch liner). Accordingly, the company has made the decision to drill a new modestly angled sidetrack in the Kuparuk formation. It is estimated that the sidetrack will take 2-3 days to drill, some 650 feet through the Kuparuk formation, which should then allow a better testing operation. As a result of the cold weather in Alaska, the drilling season may be extended into early April.

Companies: Pantheon Resources plc
  • 01 Mar 21
SP Angel Morning View: Lithium carbonate, spodumene, NdPr prices, vanadium prices rise as base metals consolidate

Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) BUY – H2/20 exploration work returns exciting results at Gedabek CA Bushveld Minerals* (BMN LN) - Strong Buy 31p – Vanadium prices rise as new demand meets tight supply Gemfields (GEM LN) – Resumption of operations at Kagem and Montepuez after a year of disrupted production and sales GoldStone Resources* (GRL LN) – Exercise of warrants raises £1.2m Power Metal Resources* (POW LN) – Portfolio update Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) – Continued access to Cobre confirmed while current copper prices boost Leigh Creek economic returns

Companies: GML AAZ BMN GRL POW SML

  • 02 Mar 21
Small Cap Feast

tinyBuild— a leading video games publisher and developer with global operations. tinyBuild's strategic focus is in creating longlasting IP by partnering with video games developers, establishing a stable platform on which to build multi-game and multimedia franchises is to join AIM. Offer details TBC. Due mid-March. AMTE Power, a developer and manufacturer of lithium-ion battery cells for specialist markets, announced its intention to seek admission to trading on AIM. Admission is expected to take place during March 2021. The Company intends to raise approximately £7m by way of a placing of new ordinary shares in the capital of the Company. Timing TBC. Samarkand Group Limited, the cross-border eCommerce technology and retail group opening up the world's largest market for brands and retailers, intends to IPO on the Apex Segment Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market. Admission is targeted for March 2021. NextEnergy Renewables to launch an IPO on the Main Market. NREN is a differentiated renewables investment Company that aims to capture the most attractive private renewables and energy transition infrastructure investment opportunities globally. Targeting a £300m raise. NREN is targeting total returns of 9-11 per cent. per annum (net of all fees and expenses but including the Target Dividend and capital appreciation) . The Company's target dividend yield for the first full financial year to 31 December 2022 is 5.5 pence. Due Early March 2021. Digital 9 Infrastructure launch an initial public offering on the Specialist Fund Segment of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange, by way of an initial placing and offer for subscription for a target issue £400m. Digital 9 Infrastructure plc is a newly established, externally managed investment trust. The Company will invest in a range of digital infrastructure assets which deliver a reliable, functioning internet. The IPO Prospectus is expected to be published in March 2021. Team PLC announced their plans for an AIM IPO. Team owns Theta Enhanced Asset Management Ltd, trading as Team Asset Management. This is a Jersey-based active fund manager providing discretionary and advisory portfolio management services to private clients, trusts and charities. Assets under management were GBP291m in November, up from GBP140m in December 2019 . The Company is seeking to raise no less than £5m. The Placing will be priced on a pre-money valuation for the Company of £7m. Targeting March Admission. Fix Price announces its intention to float on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Fix Price is one of the leading variety value retailers globally and the largest in Russia, with more than 4,200 stores. Fix Price has revenues of RUB 190.1bn, RUB 142.9bn and RUB 108.7bn for 2020, 2019 and 2018, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA for the same years was RUB 36.8bn, RUB 27.2bn and RUB 14.2bn, respectively. The Offer would consist of an offering of GDRs by certain existing shareholders of the Company. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC announced its prospectus has been approved by the FCA. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC is a newly established, externally managed closed-ended investment company. The Company will provide project finance to content makers and commissioners in the global television and film production industry via senior loans secured against pre-sold intellectual property (IP) rights. GPEIT's investment objective is to provide Shareholders with dividend income and modest capital growth through exposure to media content finance. According to media reports, Deliveroo, are expecting to release their IPO plans on 8th March. The company raised more than $180m in January with a valuation of more than $7bn.

Companies: ADME NFC CHAR WHR MKA IXI MOS D4T4 ALS TERN

  • 01 Mar 21
Cenkos: Oil & Gas Sector -- United Oil & Gas, Falcon Oil & Gas, 88 Energy, NEO Energy, i3 Energy, Kosmos Energy, Hess Corporation, Gran Tierra Energy, Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas, Jadestone Energy, Neptune Energy, Wintershall Dea, Occidental Petroleum Corpora

Oil fell the most since November with a stronger dollar and concerns surrounding inflation weighing on crude's best start to the year on record. Futures in New York declined 3.2% on Friday, with a rising dollar reducing the appeal of commodities priced in the currency. Yet, the US crude benchmark still managed to post a nearly 18% gain this month as inventories worldwide tighten and pockets of demand return. Domestic crude production dropped in 2020 for the first time in four years, according to the US government. Crude prices have notched the largest year-to-date gain than in any year prior for the same time period, in part due to OPEC+ production curbs helping to deplete global stockpiles. Plus, the unprecedented cold blast that recently halted millions of barrels of US output means oil markets are about 100,000 barrels a day tighter than previously thought, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. Supply scarcity may worsen in the coming months as North Sea fields undergo major maintenance. The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies will meet next week to decide on output levels. While Russia has signalled it favours a further easing of production cuts, the country's oil output dipped below its OPEC+ target this month, meaning it failed to take full advantage of the more generous quota it was afforded after January's OPEC+ meeting. Prices:  West Texas Intermediate for April delivery fell $2.03 to settle at $61.50 a barrel.  The US crude benchmark rose 3.8% this week.  Brent for April settlement, which expires on Friday, declined 75 cents to end the session at $66.13 a barrel.  The contract gained 5.1% this week.  The more actively traded May contract declined $1.69 to settle at $64.42 a barrel. Soaring bond yields on Thursday were the latest sign that accelerating inflation could trigger a pullback in monetary policy support that has helped fuel gains in risky assets during the pandemic. While global bonds have since stabilised, a less accommodative approach to monetary policy could have ripple effects across commodity markets.

Companies: FO 88E DGOC EME TRIN UOG

  • 03 Mar 21
Capital Access' Hot Off The Wires - The Day Ahead

Today's news & views, plus announcements from SMDS, PSN, POLY, RIO, BIFF, SONG, HSX, PAGE, RLE, SHED

Companies: PSN RLE RIO

  • 03 Mar 21
Jersey Oil and Gas* - Concept select update

Concept select update

Companies: Jersey Oil & Gas PLC
  • 02 Mar 21
Capital Access' Hot Off The Wires - The Day Ahead

Today's news & views, plus announcements from RIO, TW, CRDA, TPK, PHP, MGGT, SHI, WHR

Companies: PHP RIO SHI TPK

  • 05 Mar 21
SP Angel Morning View: US Fed Chairman comments steady markets as investors move to value stocks

Arc Minerals* (ARCM LN) – Immediate appointment of Rothschild & Co as financial adviser Chaarat Gold* (CGH LN) – Fatal incident at Kapan in Armenia Kodal Minerals* (KOD LN) – Progress report on West African gold exploration Phoenix Copper* (PXC LN) – Raising £16.45m to develop the Empire mine open pit development project Trans-Siberian Gold (TSG LN) – High grade Vein 25 mining operations resume after accident investigation is completed

Companies: ARCM CGH KOD PXC TSG

  • 13 Jan 21
Central Asia Metals: Q4 2020 Operations Update

Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) has reported Q4 2020 production with 3,365t of copper taking full year output to 13,855 in line with our forecast of 13.9kt and at the top end of guidance. Q4 lead output was 7,442t meaning 29,741t over the full year, up 2% YoY and in line with our forecast of 30kt while zinc output of 5,848t took full year output to 23,815t again in line with our forecast of 24kt and up 2% YoY despite the disruption at Sasa which CAML has overcome rapidly as we expected.

Companies: Central Asia Metals Plc
  • 04 Mar 21
SP Angel Morning View:

BlueRock Diamonds (BRD LN) – BlueRock reports $423/ct tenders, raises £1.5m in oversubscribed placing Cornish Metals* (CUSN LN) – Warrants exercised Metal Tiger (MTR LN) – Progress at Kitlanya East Pure Gold Mining (PUR LN) – Further drilling results from Red Lake Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) – Processing circuit optimization points to capital and operating costs savings at MdB Nornickel to Stabilize Water Inflows at Arctic Mine by Next Week

Companies: CUSN PGM BRD SAV MTR