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  • 01 Feb 16
JANUARY SYNCRUDE PRODUCTION 296,100 BBL/D

Canadian Oil Sands posted January 2016 Syncrude production results to its website late Monday. Syncrude production averaged 296,100 bbl/d for the month. We had forecast 200,000 bbl/d. Evidently we had been assuming a slower recovery from the Coker 8-2 turnaround that began in December. We suspect January volumes also benefited from flush production that typically occurs at Syncrude in the weeks immediately after a coker turnaround is completed.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 25 Jan 16
4Q15e Preview, Liquidity Analysis, & Bitumen Pricing Update

4Q15 results will be ugly, but 1Q16e is obviously shaping up to be much worse. We anticipate further capex budget reductions and have moved capex estimates below current guidance for several companies. Bitumen prices are single digits. If they go negative we suspect some bitumen producing projects could curtail output at least modestly. Liquidity Analysis: futures strip pricing would imply massive debt increases in 2016e-2017e for most names, but most names have sufficient liquidity arranged. We have reduced our ECA target price by US$2.00/share to more appropriately reflect commitments associated with non-core assets.

Companies: CVE HSE IMO SU CNQ ECA ATH MEG PXX COS

  • 19 Jan 16
Suncor Increases Bid for COS

We are changing our COS ranking to Tender, with our new COS target price of $10.65/share based on a SU/COS exchange ratio of 0.28x from Suncor’s bid and our Suncor target price of $38.00/share. On a risk adjusted basis, we believe Suncor’s amended offer is fair to COS shareholders.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands Suncor Energy

  • 18 Jan 16
COS BOARD AND SEYMOUR SCHULICH AGREE TO INCREASED BID BY SUNCOR

Market Impact: We expect COS shares to trade close to the improved offer's 0.28 (COS/SU) exchange ratio, compared to January 15 closing share prices which implied a ratio of 0.240x. Suncor and COS announced this morning that both boards have agreed to a higher bid of 0.28 SU shares per COS share (previously 0.25 SU shares), with Mr. Seymour Schulich also committed to tendering his shares (~5%).

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 11 Jan 16
DEMANDS DISCLOSURE OF SU BID TENDER RESULTS

Canadian Oil Sands issued a press release this morning, stating that it believes Suncor has an obligation to disclose the results of the tender process to date, and claiming that results to date were an "overwhelming rejection" of the bid, even though right now only Suncor has the information on the tender results.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 10 Jan 16
SUNCOR EXTENDS OFFER TO JANUARY 27TH

We expect the gap between COS's share price and the 0.25 bid ratio to close slightly on Monday morning (the share price ratio was 0.225x as of the close Friday), as Suncor's extension of the bid likely implies that the majority of shares have tendered, and that Suncor believes that getting the required two-thirds of COS shares tendered is within reach.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 04 Jan 16
DECEMBER 2015 SYNCRUDE PRODUCTION 238,800 BBL/D

Market Impact: Neutral. COS disclosed during market hours on Monday that Syncrude gross production volumes averaged 238.8 mbbl/d in December, surpassing our expectation of 210 mbbl/d, but given the pending bid from Suncor to acquire COS which is open until this Friday, we do not expect December production results to materially impact COS' stock price. December production was impacted by a previously disclosed unplanned turnaround of Coker 8-2.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 04 Jan 16
STRATEGIC ALTERNATIVES PROCESS COMPLETE, BOARD RECOMMENDS INDEPENDENCE

Market Impact: Neutral. The strategic alternatives review failed to yield an alternative that the Board deemed superior to remaining "as is". We expect Suncor to announce the results of the tender offer late this week.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 14 Dec 15
Revised Commodity Price Forecasts – Impact on Canadian Integrated Oils, Senior E&Ps, Oilsands

FirstEnergy has reduced its 2016e WTI oil price forecast from US$57.00/bbl to US$49.75/bbl, and also reduced its natural gas price forecasts going forward. We have updated our estimates and target prices, also incorporating this past week’s guidance and news disclosures. Given no significant changes to our oil price forecasts for 2017e+, and the predominance of long life oil producing assets within this group of companies, our target prices have only been reduced modestly, while we have made no changes to rankings, which continue to be biased towards stocks that should benefit the most from a recovery in oil prices.

Companies: CVE HSE IMO SU CNQ ECA ATH COS MEG PXX

  • 08 Dec 15
CANADIAN OIL SANDS LIMITED (COS) - UNPLANNED WINTER TURNAROUND FOR COKER 8-2

Market Impact: Arguably slightly positive as we think this news increases the odds that Suncor's offer gets approved by COS's shareholders. We are reducing our target price to fall in line with Suncor's 0.25 share exchange ratio offer. Relative to our Suncor target price of $39.00/share, this equates to a COS target price of $9.75/share, although based on Suncor's closing price Tuesday, the 0.25 ratio implies $8.74/share for COS.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 04 Dec 15
SUNCOR EXTENDS COS BID TO JANUARY 8TH, 2016

Market Impact: Slightly Positive.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 02 Dec 15
2016 Budget & Shareholder Rights Plan Update

COS’s 2016e guidance update yielded capex guidance modestly below our prior forecasts. Offsetting this, we have increased our royalty expense forecasts. We expect Suncor to extend its 0.25 share bid to January 4 in response to the ASC’s ruling. We continue to expect this bid will not get the two-thirds shareholder approval required, but that Suncor was planning for this and will raise its offer. We are reducing our COS target price from $12.50 to $11.70/share, to reflect a 0.30 share exchange ratio relative to our Suncor target price (previously based on a 0.32 share exchange ratio).

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 01 Dec 15
2016E GUIDANCE AND ASC DECISION ON RIGHTS PLAN

Market Impact: Likely negative given heightened risk that Suncor may or may not extend its bid to January 4th. However we fully expect Suncor's interest in acquiring COS will remain, and we expect Suncor to extend its bid. COS's 2016 cost guidance was in line with our forecasts, while capex guidance was lower than consensus.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 26 Nov 15
ASC HEARING TODAY - FOUR HAVE SIGNED CONFIDENTIALITY AGREEMENTS

Market Impact: Likely neutral. We believe the market would expect certain entities to take a hard look at COS, and will not be surprised that four entities have signed confidentiality agreements.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 03 Nov 15
3Q15 – Costs Fall

3Q15 financial results were better than expected (realized prices, operating costs). There may be more room to move our cost forecasts lower, if 3Q15 costs are reflective of the go-forward run rate, but for now our figures are relatively consistent with updated 2015 guidance. While our target price has increased by $0.65/share, it continues to reflect our view that Suncor will eventually increase its bid to the same 0.32 share exchange ratio offered to COS’s Board in April.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands

Research, Charts & Company Announcements

Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Canadian Oil Sands. We currently have 35 research reports from 1 professional analysts.

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Date Source Announcement
30Nov15 22:40 MKW ASC Delivers a Major Win for Canadian Oil Sands Shareholders as It Endorses Need for More Time in Response to Suncor's Unnecessarily Hurried Hostile Bid
25Nov15 23:00 MKW Canadian Oil Sands Posts Documents Filed With the ASC
16Nov15 11:00 MKW Canadian Oil Sands to Announce 2016 Budget
12Nov15 21:40 MKW Canadian Oil Sands Advises Shareholders to Ignore Suncor's Scare Tactics and Attempt to Mask Deficiencies of Substantially Undervalued Bid
29Oct15 20:05 MKW Canadian Oil Sands Reports Over $1 Billion of Cost Savings Achieved at Syncrude Year to Date
19Oct15 11:44 MKW Canadian Oil Sands' Board Unanimously Recommends Shareholders Reject Undervalued, Opportunistic and Exploitive Suncor Offer
07Oct15 21:26 MKW TSX Defers Consideration of Canadian Oil Sands New Shareholder Rights Plan
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  • 09 Dec 19
Unreliable assets revoke strategic plan

The crisis management plan is on and exploration hopes are now secondary. The group is revising its production guidance sharply for the next three years and will reassess its capital allocation (including divestments). The departures of both the CEO and the Exploration director hint that the recovery might be a long one for the group.

Companies: Tullow Oil
  • 21 Oct 19
Quarterly Research Outlook Autumn 2019

Following continued delays of a Brexit agreement, few sectors within the UK market have remained attractive to investors despite low valuations. One sector which has continued to outperform despite the political drama has been the UK video gaming sector (henceforth UK gaming), which we are fans of. We believe a combination of sector-leading growth, strong cash conversion and timely cyclical positioning support our positive view on the UK video gaming sector.

Companies: ABBY AMS ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CDM CSRT TIDE CYAN DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPO FDEV GTLY GENL GHH GRI GEEC GKP HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KAPE KEYS KWS KCT KGH LAM LIT LOK MACF MANO MOD OXIG PCA PANR APP ESRE PHC PMO RBW RMM RBGP REDD RSW RNO ROR SUS SCPA SEN SHG SOLG SOM SUMO TM17 INCE TWD TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF

  • 02 Sep 19
LIBERUM: Sylvania Platinum* - Results beat, Grasvally disposal but light on dividend

Sylvania has reported FY19 results (June Y/E) of $6.37/sh versus expectations of $5.95/sh due to a lighter tax expense than assumed. They have entered into a binding agreement to sell Grasvally for R115m ($7.6m at current FX), which should be settled in the next eight months.

Companies: Sylvania Platinum
  • 02 Dec 19
Hurricane Energy - Warwick West discovery

This morning Hurricane Energy announced the flow test results from its Warwick West well, which is the third and last well from the 2019 drilling campaign in the Greater Warwick Area (GWA). The well confirmed the discovery of 43° API light oil and tested at a stable flow rate of 1,300bod on natural flow with less than 0.5% of water being produced. Hurricane and Spirit Energy are evaluating the results of the 2019 drilling campaign and further technical analysis will determine both the potential for GWA to be a single accumulation and its volumetrics. Our risked valuation of Hurricane stands at 102.8p/share, with GWA tieback valued at 3.5p/share and GWA full field development at 21.6p/share. Hurricane shares are trading at 37.5p after dropping c 20% this morning. This implies the market is not attributing any value to the GWA full field, even though an oil discovery was observed.

Companies: Hurricane Energy
  • 06 Dec 19
Cenkos: Salt Lake Potash Ltd -- Placing

Salt Lake has raised A$23.5m at A$0.70 from several new Australian institutional investors and existing institutional shareholders. Taurus has also extended the Stage 1 Facility by US$15m (A$22m) to US$45m ahead of the main Project Development Facility as Salt Lake complete documentation and satisfaction of conditions precedent for the main Project Development Facility. Whether the work is progressing quicker than expected or documentation is taking longer is unknown but Salt Lake are pushing forward to meet its Q4/20 target. The next key stage will be the main Project Development Facility being finalised.

Companies: Salt Lake Potash
  • 06 Dec 19
Diversified Gas & Oil - Roadmap to Main Market

Diversified Gas and Oil (DGO) has announced the successful completion of its securitised financing arrangement with a 5% coupon and 10-year maturity. The company issued $200m in notes secured by c 22% working interest of certain upstream assets’ cash flows. DGO also announced its Q319 results delivering a 10% q-o-q increase in production to c 91kboed and hedge adjusted EBITDA of $64m. Since our previous note, the company has completed three acquisitions encompassing assets located near DGO operations and announced it is pursuing a move to the Premium segment of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. We update our valuation to 157.2p/share affected by a decrease in short-term gas price assumptions and lower production in H119 compared to our last note.

Companies: Diversified Gas & Oil
  • 11 Dec 19
Cenkos: Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd -- Horizontal Drilling Commences

This morning, Falcon Oil & Gas, along with its JV partner Origin Energy, announced that drilling had commenced on the horizontal section of the Kyalla 117 N2-1H appraisal well, situated in the Beetaloo Sub-Basin, Australia. The 1,000-2,000m horizontal well is being drilled in the Lower Kyalla shale at a depth of c1,800m TVD. We expect the horizontal section of the well to take between 20-25 days to drill. Following its completion, the well will be fracture stimulated and put on a 90-day extended production test, with results expected in Q2/20. We reiterate our BUY recommendation and our 41p price target.

Companies: Falcon Oil & Gas
  • 26 Nov 19
Oil prices help, but the best returns come from asset growth

This note takes a look at UK oil and gas sector equities from the supermajors down to the small cap E&Ps, the extent to which they outperform a simple bet on oil prices, and whether there are common characteristics that can allow investors to pick winners in the space. We conclude that outperformance is possible and has been achieved by numerous names in the last ten years, with the core hallmarks being asset base augmentation, either by progressing assets and/or via acquisition, and possessing the agency to achieve this. We also include profiles of the oil and gas stocks in our coverage.

Companies: BLVN GENL GEEC GKP HTG HUR IOG JOG LAM PANR PMO RKH SEN

  • 10 Dec 19
Gulf Keystone Petroleum#

Operational update and buyback

Companies: Gulf Keystone Petroleum
  • 13 Nov 19
Q3: back to square one?

Double whammy for Tullow Oil, which has revised its production forecasted for FY19 for the third time and reports that its latest discoveries in Guyana are heavy crudes with a high sulphur content. While it is too soon to declare both discoveries are not commercially viable, this is a big disappointment, which triggered a sell-off in the stock.

Companies: Tullow Oil
  • 02 Dec 19
Premier Oil

BIG-P development onstream

Companies: Premier Oil
  • 09 Dec 19
Rockhopper Exploration

Abu Sennan sale update

Companies: Rockhopper Exploration
  • 12 Dec 19
Pantheon Resources*

New Alaska lease acquisitions

Companies: Pantheon Resources
  • 12 Dec 19
Genel Energy

KRG payment delay

Companies: Genel Energy
  • 18 Apr 19
LIBERUM: Sylvania Platinum* - More value and more options

We recently attended a company site visit which highlighted that we have considerably undervalued the tail of Sylvania’s operations. Also, now that its host Samancor has grander ambitions, Sylvania too has possible growth opportunities.

Companies: Sylvania Platinum