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  • 01 Feb 16
JANUARY SYNCRUDE PRODUCTION 296,100 BBL/D

Canadian Oil Sands posted January 2016 Syncrude production results to its website late Monday. Syncrude production averaged 296,100 bbl/d for the month. We had forecast 200,000 bbl/d. Evidently we had been assuming a slower recovery from the Coker 8-2 turnaround that began in December. We suspect January volumes also benefited from flush production that typically occurs at Syncrude in the weeks immediately after a coker turnaround is completed.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 01 Feb 16
JANUARY SYNCRUDE PRODUCTION 296,100 BBL/D

Canadian Oil Sands posted January 2016 Syncrude production results to its website late Monday. Syncrude production averaged 296,100 bbl/d for the month. We had forecast 200,000 bbl/d. Evidently we had been assuming a slower recovery from the Coker 8-2 turnaround that began in December. We suspect January volumes also benefited from flush production that typically occurs at Syncrude in the weeks immediately after a coker turnaround is completed.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 25 Jan 16
4Q15e Preview, Liquidity Analysis, & Bitumen Pricing Update

4Q15 results will be ugly, but 1Q16e is obviously shaping up to be much worse. We anticipate further capex budget reductions and have moved capex estimates below current guidance for several companies. Bitumen prices are single digits. If they go negative we suspect some bitumen producing projects could curtail output at least modestly. Liquidity Analysis: futures strip pricing would imply massive debt increases in 2016e-2017e for most names, but most names have sufficient liquidity arranged. We have reduced our ECA target price by US$2.00/share to more appropriately reflect commitments associated with non-core assets.

Companies: CVE HSE IMO SU CNQ ECA ATH MEG PXX COS

  • 25 Jan 16
4Q15e Preview, Liquidity Analysis, & Bitumen Pricing Update

4Q15 results will be ugly, but 1Q16e is obviously shaping up to be much worse. We anticipate further capex budget reductions and have moved capex estimates below current guidance for several companies. Bitumen prices are single digits. If they go negative we suspect some bitumen producing projects could curtail output at least modestly. Liquidity Analysis: futures strip pricing would imply massive debt increases in 2016e-2017e for most names, but most names have sufficient liquidity arranged. We have reduced our ECA target price by US$2.00/share to more appropriately reflect commitments associated with non-core assets.

Companies: CVE HSE IMO SU CNQ ECA ATH MEG PXX COS

  • 19 Jan 16
Suncor Increases Bid for COS

We are changing our COS ranking to Tender, with our new COS target price of $10.65/share based on a SU/COS exchange ratio of 0.28x from Suncor’s bid and our Suncor target price of $38.00/share. On a risk adjusted basis, we believe Suncor’s amended offer is fair to COS shareholders.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands Suncor Energy

  • 19 Jan 16
Suncor Increases Bid for COS

We are changing our COS ranking to Tender, with our new COS target price of $10.65/share based on a SU/COS exchange ratio of 0.28x from Suncor’s bid and our Suncor target price of $38.00/share. On a risk adjusted basis, we believe Suncor’s amended offer is fair to COS shareholders.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands Suncor Energy

  • 18 Jan 16
COS BOARD AND SEYMOUR SCHULICH AGREE TO INCREASED BID BY SUNCOR

Market Impact: We expect COS shares to trade close to the improved offer's 0.28 (COS/SU) exchange ratio, compared to January 15 closing share prices which implied a ratio of 0.240x. Suncor and COS announced this morning that both boards have agreed to a higher bid of 0.28 SU shares per COS share (previously 0.25 SU shares), with Mr. Seymour Schulich also committed to tendering his shares (~5%).

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 18 Jan 16
COS BOARD AND SEYMOUR SCHULICH AGREE TO INCREASED BID BY SUNCOR

Market Impact: We expect COS shares to trade close to the improved offer's 0.28 (COS/SU) exchange ratio, compared to January 15 closing share prices which implied a ratio of 0.240x. Suncor and COS announced this morning that both boards have agreed to a higher bid of 0.28 SU shares per COS share (previously 0.25 SU shares), with Mr. Seymour Schulich also committed to tendering his shares (~5%).

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 11 Jan 16
DEMANDS DISCLOSURE OF SU BID TENDER RESULTS

Canadian Oil Sands issued a press release this morning, stating that it believes Suncor has an obligation to disclose the results of the tender process to date, and claiming that results to date were an "overwhelming rejection" of the bid, even though right now only Suncor has the information on the tender results.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 11 Jan 16
DEMANDS DISCLOSURE OF SU BID TENDER RESULTS

Canadian Oil Sands issued a press release this morning, stating that it believes Suncor has an obligation to disclose the results of the tender process to date, and claiming that results to date were an "overwhelming rejection" of the bid, even though right now only Suncor has the information on the tender results.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 10 Jan 16
SUNCOR EXTENDS OFFER TO JANUARY 27TH

We expect the gap between COS's share price and the 0.25 bid ratio to close slightly on Monday morning (the share price ratio was 0.225x as of the close Friday), as Suncor's extension of the bid likely implies that the majority of shares have tendered, and that Suncor believes that getting the required two-thirds of COS shares tendered is within reach.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 10 Jan 16
SUNCOR EXTENDS OFFER TO JANUARY 27TH

We expect the gap between COS's share price and the 0.25 bid ratio to close slightly on Monday morning (the share price ratio was 0.225x as of the close Friday), as Suncor's extension of the bid likely implies that the majority of shares have tendered, and that Suncor believes that getting the required two-thirds of COS shares tendered is within reach.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 04 Jan 16
DECEMBER 2015 SYNCRUDE PRODUCTION 238,800 BBL/D

Market Impact: Neutral. COS disclosed during market hours on Monday that Syncrude gross production volumes averaged 238.8 mbbl/d in December, surpassing our expectation of 210 mbbl/d, but given the pending bid from Suncor to acquire COS which is open until this Friday, we do not expect December production results to materially impact COS' stock price. December production was impacted by a previously disclosed unplanned turnaround of Coker 8-2.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 04 Jan 16
DECEMBER 2015 SYNCRUDE PRODUCTION 238,800 BBL/D

Market Impact: Neutral. COS disclosed during market hours on Monday that Syncrude gross production volumes averaged 238.8 mbbl/d in December, surpassing our expectation of 210 mbbl/d, but given the pending bid from Suncor to acquire COS which is open until this Friday, we do not expect December production results to materially impact COS' stock price. December production was impacted by a previously disclosed unplanned turnaround of Coker 8-2.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 04 Jan 16
STRATEGIC ALTERNATIVES PROCESS COMPLETE, BOARD RECOMMENDS INDEPENDENCE

Market Impact: Neutral. The strategic alternatives review failed to yield an alternative that the Board deemed superior to remaining "as is". We expect Suncor to announce the results of the tender offer late this week.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 04 Jan 16
STRATEGIC ALTERNATIVES PROCESS COMPLETE, BOARD RECOMMENDS INDEPENDENCE

Market Impact: Neutral. The strategic alternatives review failed to yield an alternative that the Board deemed superior to remaining "as is". We expect Suncor to announce the results of the tender offer late this week.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 14 Dec 15
Revised Commodity Price Forecasts – Impact on Canadian Integrated Oils, Senior E&Ps, Oilsands

FirstEnergy has reduced its 2016e WTI oil price forecast from US$57.00/bbl to US$49.75/bbl, and also reduced its natural gas price forecasts going forward. We have updated our estimates and target prices, also incorporating this past week’s guidance and news disclosures. Given no significant changes to our oil price forecasts for 2017e+, and the predominance of long life oil producing assets within this group of companies, our target prices have only been reduced modestly, while we have made no changes to rankings, which continue to be biased towards stocks that should benefit the most from a recovery in oil prices.

Companies: CVE HSE IMO SU CNQ ECA ATH COS MEG PXX

  • 14 Dec 15
Revised Commodity Price Forecasts – Impact on Canadian Integrated Oils, Senior E&Ps, Oilsands

FirstEnergy has reduced its 2016e WTI oil price forecast from US$57.00/bbl to US$49.75/bbl, and also reduced its natural gas price forecasts going forward. We have updated our estimates and target prices, also incorporating this past week’s guidance and news disclosures. Given no significant changes to our oil price forecasts for 2017e+, and the predominance of long life oil producing assets within this group of companies, our target prices have only been reduced modestly, while we have made no changes to rankings, which continue to be biased towards stocks that should benefit the most from a recovery in oil prices.

Companies: CVE HSE IMO SU CNQ ECA ATH COS MEG PXX

  • 08 Dec 15
CANADIAN OIL SANDS LIMITED (COS) - UNPLANNED WINTER TURNAROUND FOR COKER 8-2

Market Impact: Arguably slightly positive as we think this news increases the odds that Suncor's offer gets approved by COS's shareholders. We are reducing our target price to fall in line with Suncor's 0.25 share exchange ratio offer. Relative to our Suncor target price of $39.00/share, this equates to a COS target price of $9.75/share, although based on Suncor's closing price Tuesday, the 0.25 ratio implies $8.74/share for COS.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 08 Dec 15
CANADIAN OIL SANDS LIMITED (COS) - UNPLANNED WINTER TURNAROUND FOR COKER 8-2

Market Impact: Arguably slightly positive as we think this news increases the odds that Suncor's offer gets approved by COS's shareholders. We are reducing our target price to fall in line with Suncor's 0.25 share exchange ratio offer. Relative to our Suncor target price of $39.00/share, this equates to a COS target price of $9.75/share, although based on Suncor's closing price Tuesday, the 0.25 ratio implies $8.74/share for COS.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 04 Dec 15
SUNCOR EXTENDS COS BID TO JANUARY 8TH, 2016

Market Impact: Slightly Positive.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 04 Dec 15
SUNCOR EXTENDS COS BID TO JANUARY 8TH, 2016

Market Impact: Slightly Positive.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 02 Dec 15
2016 Budget & Shareholder Rights Plan Update

COS’s 2016e guidance update yielded capex guidance modestly below our prior forecasts. Offsetting this, we have increased our royalty expense forecasts. We expect Suncor to extend its 0.25 share bid to January 4 in response to the ASC’s ruling. We continue to expect this bid will not get the two-thirds shareholder approval required, but that Suncor was planning for this and will raise its offer. We are reducing our COS target price from $12.50 to $11.70/share, to reflect a 0.30 share exchange ratio relative to our Suncor target price (previously based on a 0.32 share exchange ratio).

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 02 Dec 15
2016 Budget & Shareholder Rights Plan Update

COS’s 2016e guidance update yielded capex guidance modestly below our prior forecasts. Offsetting this, we have increased our royalty expense forecasts. We expect Suncor to extend its 0.25 share bid to January 4 in response to the ASC’s ruling. We continue to expect this bid will not get the two-thirds shareholder approval required, but that Suncor was planning for this and will raise its offer. We are reducing our COS target price from $12.50 to $11.70/share, to reflect a 0.30 share exchange ratio relative to our Suncor target price (previously based on a 0.32 share exchange ratio).

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 01 Dec 15
2016E GUIDANCE AND ASC DECISION ON RIGHTS PLAN

Market Impact: Likely negative given heightened risk that Suncor may or may not extend its bid to January 4th. However we fully expect Suncor's interest in acquiring COS will remain, and we expect Suncor to extend its bid. COS's 2016 cost guidance was in line with our forecasts, while capex guidance was lower than consensus.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 01 Dec 15
2016E GUIDANCE AND ASC DECISION ON RIGHTS PLAN

Market Impact: Likely negative given heightened risk that Suncor may or may not extend its bid to January 4th. However we fully expect Suncor's interest in acquiring COS will remain, and we expect Suncor to extend its bid. COS's 2016 cost guidance was in line with our forecasts, while capex guidance was lower than consensus.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 26 Nov 15
ASC HEARING TODAY - FOUR HAVE SIGNED CONFIDENTIALITY AGREEMENTS

Market Impact: Likely neutral. We believe the market would expect certain entities to take a hard look at COS, and will not be surprised that four entities have signed confidentiality agreements.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 26 Nov 15
ASC HEARING TODAY - FOUR HAVE SIGNED CONFIDENTIALITY AGREEMENTS

Market Impact: Likely neutral. We believe the market would expect certain entities to take a hard look at COS, and will not be surprised that four entities have signed confidentiality agreements.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 03 Nov 15
3Q15 – Costs Fall

3Q15 financial results were better than expected (realized prices, operating costs). There may be more room to move our cost forecasts lower, if 3Q15 costs are reflective of the go-forward run rate, but for now our figures are relatively consistent with updated 2015 guidance. While our target price has increased by $0.65/share, it continues to reflect our view that Suncor will eventually increase its bid to the same 0.32 share exchange ratio offered to COS’s Board in April.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands
  • 03 Nov 15
3Q15 – Costs Fall

3Q15 financial results were better than expected (realized prices, operating costs). There may be more room to move our cost forecasts lower, if 3Q15 costs are reflective of the go-forward run rate, but for now our figures are relatively consistent with updated 2015 guidance. While our target price has increased by $0.65/share, it continues to reflect our view that Suncor will eventually increase its bid to the same 0.32 share exchange ratio offered to COS’s Board in April.

Companies: Canadian Oil Sands

Research, Charts & Company Announcements

Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Canadian Oil Sands. We currently have 35 research reports from 1 professional analysts.

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Date Source Announcement
30Nov15 22:40 MKW ASC Delivers a Major Win for Canadian Oil Sands Shareholders as It Endorses Need for More Time in Response to Suncor's Unnecessarily Hurried Hostile Bid
25Nov15 23:00 MKW Canadian Oil Sands Posts Documents Filed With the ASC
16Nov15 11:00 MKW Canadian Oil Sands to Announce 2016 Budget
12Nov15 21:40 MKW Canadian Oil Sands Advises Shareholders to Ignore Suncor's Scare Tactics and Attempt to Mask Deficiencies of Substantially Undervalued Bid
29Oct15 20:05 MKW Canadian Oil Sands Reports Over $1 Billion of Cost Savings Achieved at Syncrude Year to Date
19Oct15 11:44 MKW Canadian Oil Sands' Board Unanimously Recommends Shareholders Reject Undervalued, Opportunistic and Exploitive Suncor Offer
07Oct15 21:26 MKW TSX Defers Consideration of Canadian Oil Sands New Shareholder Rights Plan
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  • 13 Jan 20
Cenkos: Oil & Gas Update -- Apache Corporation, Pharos Energy, Premier Oil, Rockhopper Exploration, RockRose Energy, Columbus Energy Resources, Cairn Energy, Serinus Energy

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil futures edged downward Friday and posted significant declines for the week. WTI for February delivery lost 52 cents Friday to settle at $59.04 per barrel. It traded within a range from $58.85 to $59.78. Compared to 3 January 2020 settlement, the WTI is down 6.4 percent. March Brent shed 39 cents to end the day at $64.98 per barrel. It is down 5.3 percent for the week. Reformulated gasoline (RBOB) finished higher Friday. The. February RBOB contract price settled at $1.66 per gallon, reflecting a nearly one-cent gain. Week-on-week; however, RBOB is down 5.1 percent. Henry Hub natural gas posted a gain for the third straight trading day, with the February contract adding nearly four cents to close at $2.20. Compared to a week ago, gas futures are up 3.3 percent. Rigzone.

Companies: FOG PVR EME TRIN 88E

  • 15 Jan 20
Q4 2019 Operations Update

Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) announced strong full year production numbers beating our estimates on full year copper and zinc production while lead production was in line with our estimates. Q4 2019 copper production of 3.1kt was down 7% YoY and 22% QoQ following a strong Q3 2019 resulting in full year output of 13.8kt, down 2% YoY with Kounrad now in its new operational phase. Zinc output of 5.7kt was down 2% YoY and 8% QoQ as zinc grades were modestly lower at 3.23% versus a full year average of 3.29% offsetting increased throughput. However, given a strong 9mo19 performance full year zinc output of 22.98kt was up 2% YoY and 2% ahead of our estimate at the top of the guidance range. Q4 2019 lead output of 7.48kt was up 1% YoY and 2% QoQ owing to stronger grades and recoveries resulting in full year output of 29.2kt which was in line with our forecast.

Companies: Central Asia Metals
  • 14 Jan 20
Cenkos: Hummingbird Resources Plc -- Q4 Production Update

Hummingbird released its Q4 production numbers with 33,892ozs of gold poured (30,484 ozs in Q3/19). This brought 2019 production to 115,649oz which was within guidance of 110-125,000ozs. It was just below our 119,000oz modelled but there was still 2,900oz in inventory (2,800ozs in Q3). Alongside an increase in production was a reported decrease in unit costs with a Q4 AISC of US$839/oz (US$849/oz AISC in Q3/19). This was ahead of our expectations and hopefully should continue into 2020 and make next year a steadier period for Hummingbird.

Companies: Hummingbird Resources
  • 13 Jan 20
WHI First Light: Caledonia Mining (CMCL) - Record production in Q4 2019, strong end to the year

Caledonia today announced its gold production in 2019 with a record Q4 production of 16.9koz gold from its Blanket gold mine in Zimbabwe, making a total for the year of 55.2koz – beating its own guidance (50-53koz) and our forecast (51.3koz). CEO Steve Curtis announced that 2020 had also started well leading to a rise in 2020 guidance to between 53-56koz (WHI forecast of 55.5koz at the upper end of guidance).

Companies: Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc Com Shs Npv
  • 02 Sep 19
LIBERUM: Sylvania Platinum* - Results beat, Grasvally disposal but light on dividend

Sylvania has reported FY19 results (June Y/E) of $6.37/sh versus expectations of $5.95/sh due to a lighter tax expense than assumed. They have entered into a binding agreement to sell Grasvally for R115m ($7.6m at current FX), which should be settled in the next eight months.

Companies: Sylvania Platinum
  • 09 Jan 20
Cenkos: Centamin Plc -- Production results

Centamin Q4 gold production exceeded our expectations at 148,387oz. Centamin had always said Q4 would be a strong quarter and this was a 51% improvement on the previous quarter, driven by improved feed grade, metallurgical recoveries and year-end plant drawdown of gold-in-circuit. 2019 gold production was 480,529oz, a 2% improvement on the previous year and Centamin was within 2% of the 490,000oz guidance, which we did not believe would be possible. 2020 production guidance is unchanged at 510,000-540,000oz.

Companies: Centamin
  • 21 Oct 19
Quarterly Research Outlook Autumn 2019

Following continued delays of a Brexit agreement, few sectors within the UK market have remained attractive to investors despite low valuations. One sector which has continued to outperform despite the political drama has been the UK video gaming sector (henceforth UK gaming), which we are fans of. We believe a combination of sector-leading growth, strong cash conversion and timely cyclical positioning support our positive view on the UK video gaming sector.

Companies: ABBY AMS ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CDM CSRT TIDE CYAN DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPO FDEV GTLY GENL GHH GRI GEEC GKP HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KAPE KEYS KWS KCT KGH LAM LIT LOK MACF MANO MOD OXIG PCA PANR APP ESRE PHC PMO RBW RMM RBGP REDD RSW RNO ROR SUS SCPA SEN SHG SOLG SOM SUMO TM17 INCE TWD TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF

  • 16 Dec 19
Hurricane Energy - Strong Lancaster EPS performance

Hurricane has announced an update on the strong ongoing performance of the Lancaster early production system (EPS), with recent individual well tests supporting guidance of 20,000bod for FY20 (before operational downtime). It has also been granted a five-year extension to its P1368 licence, covering Lancaster and Lincoln, resulting in changes to its 2020 work programme. One or more sub-vertical wells will be drilled on both Lincoln (in 2020) and Lancaster (in 2021) to determine the maximum vertical extent of the reservoir, while the Greater Warwick Area horizontal wells will no longer be drilled next year. Hurricane estimates FY19 oil production of 3.1mmbbl, representing an average of 13,300bod, generating revenue of c $165m and year-end unrestricted cash of c $150m. We plan to update our numbers shortly to reflect FY19/20 guidance.

Companies: Hurricane Energy
  • 09 Jan 20
Strong production base underpinned by a robust liquidity position

Today’s quarterly operations update underlines the considerable progress made by JKX Oil & Gas (“JKX” or the “Company”) across its enviable Eastern European portfolio in our view. Recent drilling activity in the Ukraine has already added incremental value accretive barrels to the company’s production base, whilst declines in Russia at well 20 have been largely offset by Wells 18 and 5. 2020 will see a greater focus on the company’s Ukrainian acreage with the company fully funded ahead of an active work programme.

Companies: JKX Oil And Gas
  • 02 Jul 19
Where’s the Value?

Warren Buffett once said that as an investor, it is wise to be ‘fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful’. Fear is not in short supply right now.

Companies: OPM ALU ANCR BLV CONN CRC STU GATC HAT LEK MMH MCB MWE NXR NTBR NOG PAF PEG RFX SRC TEF TEG TPT VTU WYN XLM

  • 13 Dec 19
Hurricane Energy

Operational update

Companies: Hurricane Energy
  • 13 Jan 20
Cenkos: Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd -- Kyalla Operational Update

Falcon Oil & Gas have announced that the Kyalla 117 N2-1H horizontal production hole section well is to be plugged and sidetracked following operational difficulties with the original horizontal production hole section. Drilling operations will recommence on the new horizontal section within the next month. Despite the operational challenges, results obtained to date are encouraging with the well encountering good reservoir continuity, conductive natural fractures and continuous gas shows.

Companies: Falcon Oil & Gas
  • 31 Oct 19
Velocys

Every time a plane takes off it causes CO2 to be released into the atmosphere. Imagine if instead it caused CO2 to be removed. While Velocys does not offer that now, it does have the component parts in place and is making strong progress in developing key reference projects. It has strong partners for its waste to aviation fuel project in the UK and thanks to a recent deal with Occidental can offer carbon capture and storage from its biomass to fuels project in Mississippi. With traction building in the form of a deal with Toyo in Japan, Velocys is putting a sometimes difficult history behind it in our view.

Companies: Velocys
  • 13 Nov 19
Velocys

Velocys continues to progress the commercial deployment of its technology with the successful delivery of reactors and catalyst to the Nagoya demonstration site in Japan. This is the company’s second project targeting sustainable avaiation fuel and has the potential to be followed with a full-size commercial project. We think it is good to see it developing in a timely fashion.

Companies: Velocys
  • 10 Sep 19
More steps in the right direction

Petropavlovsk announced its H1 results this morning (a trading update was given on 23/7/2019). The company has also published its presentation to be delivered at its Capital Market Day today. Overall both the results and the messaging are strong reflecting the three critical achievements the company has delivered over the last 12 months towards full corporate recovery namely: successful start up of the POX operation, stabilization of management and board, and overhaul of the IRC exposure (including a commiserate fee for the US$240 million guarantee, amounting to US$8.9 million p.a. including services). The company now has “the luxury” of optimizing the expansion of its production base via numerous options, tightening its cost control therein, widening its exploration footprint and creating some “auction” tension in its stated target of selling its IRC stake. Meanwhile the US$1500/oz gold price environment of H2/2019 aligned with rising production and falling costs should allow material deleveraging of the balance sheet.

Companies: Petropavlovsk