On November 26th, the previously announced recapitalization transaction was formally approved by both equity and noteholders. As a part of this transaction, 2x private placements were executed, raising gross proceeds of $46.5 mm through both equity subscription receipts (ESRs) and note subscription receipts (NSRs). In conjunction with the above, the maturity of its Senior Secured Notes has now been extended from July 15, 2021 to April 15, 2023. Further to the transactions, Delphi took the opportunity to consolidate its outstanding shares on a 15 for 1 basis. The company’s proforma share count has been reduced to 18.4 mm shares (including the first 1/3 tranche of ESRs), though we forecast this growing to ~30.5 mm shares outstanding at the end of 2020, upon full exercise of the ESRs. Luminus Delphi Holdings II Ltd. Fund holds ~8.5 mm shares, or 46% of the shares outstanding, following the successful closing of the recap.
Companies: Delphi Energy
Delphi reported 3Q19 results which were mixed in nature, as production largely overlaid both GMPFE and consensus estimates, though both capex and FFO were subject to non-recurring items that muddied the quarterly results.
Production was reported at 8,386 boe/d, in line with both GMPFE and consensus estimates of 8,404 boe/d and 8,443 boe/d, respectively. Recall, declines took hold as the company’s syndicate imparted a $4mm capital spend limit through to the end of November 2019 as it worked through the refinancing.
AFFO was reported at ~$21.3 mm ($0.11/sh) significantly above both GMPFE and consensus estimates of $0.06/sh. However, when the company’s previously announced permanent assignment of Alliance capacity was backed out, the company actually missed GMPFE and consensus by ~12%.
Delphi reported 2Q19 results which largely lagged expectations as funds flow of $12.0 mm ($0.06/sh) missed both GMPFE and consensus forecasts of $14.6 mm ($0.08/sh) and $13.5 mm ($0.07/sh), respectively. Having wrapped up its winter drilling program in 1Q19, capital expenditures were a scant $4.4 mm, and were primarily directed towards completion operations of the 13-34 West Bigstone pad.
Mr. Mark Behrman, CFO, has left the company to pursue other opportunities after tending this post over the last two years. The company has initiated an executive search with a replacement expected to be identified as soon as reasonably possible.
Delphi announced it has entered into a binding agreement to sell 16 mmcf/d of its firm service to the Chicago area on the Alliance pipeline system (~35% of original capacity) for proceeds of $11.9 mm.
Delphi reported 1Q19 results where production of 8,759 boe/d was below both GMPFE and the Street at 9,317 boe/d and 9,087 boe/d, respectively.
Delphi released its 2018 reserve book, one which appeared positive on the surface, with PDP, 1P and 2P reserves increasing by 1%, 17% and 27%, respectively, highlighting an expanded economic footprint in West Bigstone. However, with increased debt funded spending in 2018, including 4Q18e’s $15mm capital increase, these same markers degrade to -38%, -29% and -22%, respectively, on a per share, debt adjusted basis.
Delphi has drilled and completed 4x (2.6 net) wells of its 5x well 2H18e drilling program. 3x of the wells are now on production, with the 4th expected to follow suit later this month.
With production pre-released to the market at ~10,600 boe/d, cash flow of $14.7 mm ($0.08/sh) overlaid GMP FE and consensus forecasts, as lower realized pricing was more than offset by cash costs coming in better than expected.
Delphi announced the conclusion of its winter 2018 capital program, highlighting the successful drilling of 4 (2.6 net) wells, and the further completion of 7 (4.6 net) wells. Activity included the testing of its first West Bigstone well in six years, where a strong final 24 hour test rate of ~2,928 boe/d (64% liquids) showed early indications of a solid well. This strong showing, in conjunction with the company’s most recent Central Bigstone IP30 of 1,828 boe/d (62 %liquids), offers a positive endorsement for the company’s sizeable land position west of its historical development area. Phase 1 amine processing capabilities (17 mmcf/d) have been added to Delphi’s 25% owned Bigstone sweet gas facility that has an underutilized capacity of 85 mmcf/d. The company will see reduced operating costs in the range of $0.80/mcf for production processed through this plant, or ~$0.70/boe at the corporate level. Delphi reported 1Q18 corporate production of 9,515 boe/d, slightly underwhelming consensus estimates of 9,750 boe/d. After tying in all but one well from its winter program, month to date volumes in April have averaged 10,800 boe/d (42% liquids).
Delphi reported 2Q16 results that were behind our production and cash flow estimates. Operations during the quarter were materially disrupted by a one month outage at the SemCAMs K3 gas plant. Operations are now on track in 2H16e with corporate volumes back in the 8,500 boe/d range. Ideally, the Company now expects to exit the year at a rate up 500 boe/d from prior guidance at the midpoint. While cash flow is up 20% on higher anticipated 2017e production, we have left our target price intact at $1.25 per share for the time being, reflecting multiple compression over our prior view as growth continues to remain hampered in the current commodity price environment due to a capitally constrained position, although remain constructive on the Company’s Bigstone Montney asset and the progress achieved to date.
Impact: Negative. Production was materially lower in the quarter given third-party facility downtime, which significantly impacted cash flow generation.
Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly reversed into summer, market likely to ignore financials for natural gas producers and look ahead to winter and formalization of sell-side 2018e estimates in coming months. Spot AECO natural gas prices recently crested C$2.60/mcf, and with a reasonable alignment of previously distressed NE BC Stn2 differentials, augmented by a withdrawal expected next week, view the market psyche as constructive and looking ahead, with the analogy that this market is shaping up to mirror 2012 still holding. That said, with crude oil poised to retest support levels, combined with strong stock price performance broadly observed YTD, we would characterize sentiment as slightly pessimistic in the near-term which could reduce or unwind momentum-based investment strategies that have worked thus far in 2016.
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Impact - slightly positive as the increased offering will provided additional financial flexibility over the nearterm in the context of the Company's revised credit facility, although will result in a modest increase to our forecasted interest expense
Given challenging market conditions, Delphi’s bank line is being reduced and replaced with what we assume will be higher cost debt. In the event the senior notes offering does not close by the end of June then the Company will be in default of its senior credit facility. The Company is looking to issue $40 mm of senior secured notes, effectively terming out some of its debt structure, while the Company’s bank line will be
reduced by ~35% to $85 mm leaving a limited amount financial flexibility going forward. With lower cash flow from higher interest costs and a reduced outlook for 2017e in order to stay within the Company’s revised borrowing base we have trimmed our target price to $1.25 per share and maintain our Market Perform ranking.
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Parkmead’s portfolio has evolved to the point where it is now a full-cycle E&P company with a low-cost Dutch production base and a broad spectrum of high-quality UK growth opportunities, encompassing material development projects and an attractive range of risk/reward exploration. Recently, it has diversified into renewables, future proofing its equity story and opening up a new ‘investor-friendly’ avenue of growth. A core strength of this management team is its commercial acumen and portfolio-driven approach to optimising value. Parkmead has been in portfolio construction mode to date but is now well positioned to start crystallising its intrinsic value. We initiate with a risked-NAV based price target of 155p/sh. Investors would do well to get on-board with a management team that has a strong track record of delivering shareholder value.
Companies: Parkmead Group PLC
Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on Diversified Gas & Oil (DGOC), Vermilion Energy (VET) and Circle Property (CRC). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for these companies. All forecasts should now be considered redundant.
Companies: Diversified Gas & Oil PLC
Panoro Energy (PEN NO)c; Target price of NOK23.00: Revisiting Gabon - BW Energy provided an update on Dussafu with FY20 production guidance expectation marginally below previous guidance (14.25 mbbl/d versus 15 16 mbbl/d) due to COVID-19 restrictions and OPEC+ quotas. This results in FY20 opex expected to be US$19/bbl which is slightly above the previous guidance of US$17-18/bbl. The drilling of DTM-7H, and the tie-in of DTM-6H and -7H, has been deferred to mid-2021 with first oil expected in 3Q21 and our estimate of the timing of the field production ramp-up has been delayed by one quarter. BWE continues to expect production from the Dussafu area to reach >30 mbbl/d in 2023 and ~40 mbbl/d in 2024. The Hibiscus development is expected to offer 15% IRR at
Companies: TGL TGA 88E FEC JSE LUPE LUNE LNDNF LYV NOG GB_NTRM NSTRY 3NO PANR P3K PTHRF PTAL TETY TETY AOI ENOG PEN SDX EGY
• In an Important development, PetroTal has signed a contract with an international oil trader for a pilot shipment to export 0.12 mmbbl into the Atlantic region using the Amazon river through Brazil. The shipment will be sold FOB Bretana, priced at the forward month Brent ICE price, and paid within two weeks of loading at Bretana. There are no subsequent oil price adjustments.
• At November 19, 2020, PetroTal had cash resources of US$9.8 mm, with accounts payable and accrued liabilities of ~US$39 mm, a reduction of ~US$11 mm from the end of 2Q20. The company has been paid US$5.5 mm for delivery of 0.192 mm bbl of oil to Petroperu in October. Production is constrained to ~5,000 bbl/d pending the reopening of the export pipeline.
• We understand that the pilot should start in December. This would not only provide ~US$5 mm in cash to PetroTal but also allow production to return to recent levels (11.5 mbbl/d), effectively unlocking the fundamental value of the asset.
Balance sheet considerations
The potential financial derivative liability has been reduced from US$22.5 mm at the end of June to US$17 mm at the end of September. Of the US$39 mm current payables 46% are not due before 2021 and we note that the company still holds US$13 mm in account receivables and US$4.7 mm in inventory.
Financials on “a back to normal” scenario with flat production
We are now assuming production remains constrained at 5 mbbl/d over 4Q20 with minimum capex with cashflow and receivables being used to repay the due payables over the period.
On production of just ~11.5 mbbl/d during 2021, we estimate operating cashflow of US$85 mm at US$48/bbl Brent. This would result in free cashflow of >US$40 mm assuming capex of US$20 mm to maintain production and US$20 mm to repay the remaining payables. This compares with a current market cap of just US$75 mm, suggesting FY21 free cashflow would represent over 50% of the current market cap in a no growth scenario assuming production can be exported.
Our target price of £0.45 per share represents 6x the current share price.
Companies: PetroTal Corp.
EQTEC has announced today that the Company and Scott Bros. Enterprises Limited have agreed to extend the exclusivity period of the Billingham MOU until 18 December 2020. The Billingham MOU has been subject to previous extensions, as announced on 23 October 2019, 23 June 2020 and 18 September 2020.
Companies: EQTEC PLC (KEU1:FRA)EQTEC PLC (EQT:LON)
Pantheon announced that is has contracted a rig to drill the Talitha well and that drilling operations are expected to commence in January 2021. The well will target four independent reservoirs, in three separate trapping sequences, which the company estimates has the potential to contain in the region of a billion barrels of recoverable oil, although ongoing work is required to formally delineate the full potential of the targets.
Companies: Pantheon Resources plc
The Prime Minister vowed last week to “restore Britain's position as the foremost naval power in Europe” and promised an extra £16.5bn in defence spending over the next four years. Mr Johnson expects this investment to “spur a renaissance of British shipbuilding across the UK”, and specifically mentioned five locations where this would occur, including Belfast and Appledore – the location of InfraStrata's shipyards. Other supportive policy initiatives emanating from the government include Mr Johnson's pledge in October that offshore wind will power every home in the country by 2030. We believe this demonstrable support from the highest level of government vindicates InfraStrata's strategy, and demonstrates the significant opportunities available to the company as it bids on numerous shipbuilding and fabrication contracts. We reaffirm our Buy rating.
Companies: InfraStrata plc
Salt Lake Potash's AGM update reported that the Lake Way project is now 74% complete. Construction of the process plant is on-schedule with practical completion and first SOP production planned for Q1/21. Drawdown of the Senior Facility Agreement funds and repayment of the Taurus bridge loan is expected soon.
Companies: Salt Lake Potash Limited
Jersey Oil & Gas announced today that is has entered into an agreement to acquire the entire share capital of CIECO V&C (UK) Limited, which is currently owned by two international entities headquartered in Japan. The acquisition secures an additional 12% working interest in Licence P2170 (Blocks 20/5b & 21/1d), which provides Jersey Oil & Gas with 100% of the licence. The licence contains the majority of the Verbier oil discovery in addition to three drill ready prospects: Verbier Deep, Wengen and Cortina. The acquired entity has approximately £15M of tax losses which will provide value to Jersey Oil & Gas. Consideration will consist of £150k in cash and contingent payments of i) £1.5M upon field development plan approval of Verbier within P2170 (as already discovered) by the OGA ii) £1.0M upon the 1st anniversary of attainment of first oil. The acquisition is conditional on OGA approval amongst other technicalities, which we do not anticipate will be problematic. The acquired entity will be free of debts.
Companies: Jersey Oil & Gas PLC
Oil rose to the highest in nearly three months with positive Covid-19 vaccine developments paving the way for a more sustained recovery in oil demand.
Futures rose 5% in New York this week for a third straight weekly gain as Pfizer Inc and BioNTech SE requested emergency authorisation of their Covid vaccine Friday. Moderna Inc also released positive interim results from a final-stage trial and said it is close to seeking emergency authorisation. Still, further gains were limited by broader market declines amid a dispute between the White House and the Federal Reserve over emergency lending programmes.
Even with vaccines on the horizon, a recovery in oil demand faces obstacles with governments under pressure to tighten restrictions and curb the spread of the virus. UK Prime Minister, Boris Johnson's officials are considering tougher pandemic rules placed on broader regions of England next month after a national lockdown is set to end and the country returns to its tiered system. Meanwhile, the shift toward working from home may have a lasting chill on gasoline demand, according to Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George.
The recent climb in headline prices has been accompanied by significant moves in timespreads, where traders bet on the price of oil in different months. The spread between West Texas Intermediate for December 2021 delivery and the following month moved to backwardation, while the closely watched gap between December 2021 and 2022 WTI contracts is close to also flipping.
West Texas Intermediate for December delivery, which expired Friday, rose 41 cents to settle at $42.15 a barrel.
The January contract rose 52 cents to end the session at $42.42 a barrel.
Brent for January settlement gained 76 cents to $44.96 a barrel. The contract rose 5.1% this week.
Pfizer and BioNTech's vaccine could be the first to be cleared for use, but first it must undergo a thorough vetting. The filing could enable its use by the middle to the end of December, the companies said in a statement. Yet, it could take at least three weeks for a US Food and Drug Administration decision.
Companies: FOG PVR 88E DGOC EME TRIN UOG
Acquisition of CIECO P2170 interest
Companies: JOG JYOGF TPC1
Savannah’s acquisition of a key strategic Nigerian gas asset with strong growth potential has been ignored by the market. Its significant exploration success in Niger has also gone unrewarded. Delivery of the strong free cash flow potential these assets offer will re-rate the shares, which are materially undervalued. Management’s tenacity in getting the Seven Energy acquisition across the line alongside the impressive early progress with the acquired assets should give investors confidence. We initiate with a Buy rating and risked-NAV based price target of 49p/sh.
Companies: Savannah Energy Plc
Trifast has reported FY21 interim results that highlight the tough operating conditions with material falls in revenue, and operating leverage driving sharp reductions in profitability. The c.£16m equity raise helped to cushion the financial impact and the ongoing recovery exiting the first half provides some optimism for the Group heading in to FY22. We reinstate our buy recommendation.
Companies: Trifast plc (TRI:LON)Trifast plc (25D:BER)
Today's news & views, plus announcements from KGF, MRO, UU, BAB, BRW, FUTR, GNS, HICL, LIO, AEXG, FUL, KWS
Companies: AEX GNS HICL
While a three-year plan would have been more than enough, the new CEO delivered a roadmap for the next ten years. The idea is to show how Tullow’s existing assets can generate sufficient cash for the next decade. Discipline is key, with deleveraging as top priority. Spending is on a tight budget ($2.7bn for the next ten years) with 90% of it going to develop the West African assets. The quest to regain investors’ trust continues.
Companies: Tullow Oil plc