Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Enerplus. We currently have 48 research reports from 3 professional analysts.
Enerplus(ERF-TSX/NYSE); BUY, C$9.00 ― 4Q19 and well performance review | Gibson Energy (GEI-TSX); BUY, C$30.00 ― Growth rates and return metrics continue to significantly outpace the peer average | Journey Energy (JOY-TSX); HOLD, C$1.50 ― Reports 2019 reserves and 1H20e guidance; uncertainty surrounding KRC Duvernay JV | PHX Energy Services(PHX-TSX); BUY, C$5.50 ― FLASH: Strong 4Q19 results and another consecutive U.S. market share record
Companies: ERF GEI JOY PHX
IMPACT: Neutral. AFFO was 2% behind the Street. We and the Street had modeled slightly stronger Q/Q liquids growth than the 14% number achieved. The midpoint of ERF’s tightened 2019 guidance ranges for total and liquids production were unchanged and in line with the Street, while cash G&A expense guidance came down 3%. ERF has repurchased another 4% of its shares since June 30th and has used up all of the room on the 7% NCIB, which the Board is seeking approval to expand to 10%.
ERF’s Q4 saw strong cash flow. Production was previously disclosed. YE18 reserves metrics were generally strong but showed creep in FDC per boe. However, FDC/boe estimates for unbooked contingent resources in both the Bakken and Marcellus fell significantly Y/Y, while EUR per well estimates for contingent resource locations increased.
Q3 saw a solid beat on production and FFO, improvements to the midpoint of 2018 production guidance, and news of strong 90-day IP rates from four more DJ Basin wells. The apparent de-risking of ERF’s 35k net acre DJ Basin position is potentially a game changer for ERF, as concerns regarding ERF’s need/desire to make major acquisitions should diminish. We have reduced our ‘19e/’20e liquids production forecasts by 11%/8% (we were previously an outlier, now allowing for erosion in capital efficiency on DJ Basin infrastructure build out) but still assume Y/Y growth of 13%/15% in ‘19e/’20e, self-funded by cash flow at ~midUS$50s WTI. We expect ERF to frame a strong multi-year outlook for liquids growth when it provides 2019 guidance (December). $21.50/share TP implies 6.0x ‘20e EV/DACF at strip (5.0x at our deck). BUY.
Q2 saw a 21% Q/Q increase in liquids production. The midpoint of 2018e guidance for capex/total production/liquids production has increased by 4.5%/4.0%/3.0%. Management attributed most of the capex increase to increased non-operated activity (Marcellus, North Dakota), while cost inflation had a minor impact. Our ‘18e/’19e estimates are up 4%/3% for CFPS, and 3%/2% for production. TP up $1.00 to $22.00. BUY. ERF remains one of our Best Ideas.
ERF’s Q1 CFPS was better than we had forecast despite weaker oil production. We estimate ~$130-$150 mm of FCF in 2018e. Management is comfortable with 2018e guidance (20% liquids growth adjusted for asset sales), and aims to beat it. Our production and CFPS estimates are little changed. $20.00/share TP and BUY rating maintained.
Production guidance of 86-90 mboe/d was slightly weaker than expected. Our ‘18e production estimate is down 4% to 89 mboe/d. However guidance for costs and diffs was better than we expected. Our ‘18e CFPS estimate is essentially unchanged, while our ‘19e CFPS estimate is down 1%. No change to our $17.00 TP and BUY rating.
With a ~20% liquids CAGR on the horizon, a very strong balance sheet and a transformed cost structure, ERF is attractively positioned to grow in a ~US$50/bbl world, and trades at a significantly lower DACF multiple than peers with similar debt-adjusted growth rates. Our $17.00 target price implies 38% upside and at strip pricing equates to a reasonable 7.0x DACF multiple on our 2019e estimates. We expect improving basis differentials and continued strong operational performance will drive the shares higher.
Enerplus reported 2Q16 results that came in ahead of expectations with controllable cash costs coming in 14% below our forecast. With cost reductions continuing to hit the tape, Management has reduced operating and G&A cost guidance for the second time this year, leading to a positive boost to our cash flow outlook. Given a significantly improved balance sheet and lower cost structure, Management has increased the 2016e capital budget by $15 mm, which will position the Company for growth heading into 2017e. In light of an 8% increase to our 2017e cash flow view, we have increased our target price to $11.50 per share and reiterate our Outperform ranking
Impact - positive with second quarter results coming in ahead of both our expectation and the consensus, while strong results to date have led to revised guidance that should see favorable moves to our forecast
Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly reversed into summer, market likely to ignore financials for natural gas producers and look ahead to winter and formalization of sell-side 2018e estimates in coming months. Spot AECO natural gas prices recently crested C$2.60/mcf, and with a reasonable alignment of previously distressed NE BC Stn2 differentials, augmented by a withdrawal expected next week, view the market psyche as constructive and looking ahead, with the analogy that this market is shaping up to mirror 2012 still holding. That said, with crude oil poised to retest support levels, combined with strong stock price performance broadly observed YTD, we would characterize sentiment as slightly pessimistic in the near-term which could reduce or unwind momentum-based investment strategies that have worked thus far in 2016.
Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PWT PSK VII TOU VET WCP BNE CJ CR DEE JOY KEL LTS NVA PPY PMT PNE RRX RMP SRX SGY TOG TET ATU CKE GXE IKM LXE MQL PRQ SPE SKX TVE TVL YO ZAR
With this publication we highlight forecast revisions associated with our commodity price update (Natural Gas Update; Crude Oil Update), reaffirming a view of commodity price recovery in 2017e. In the interim until then, 2016e Canadian oil price realizations are up ~11% in the synthetic and Edmonton Light streams, with heavy WCS crude up ~20% which is amplified by Canadian oilsands output curtailments. While 2016e Canadian natural gas prices are projected to be ~20% lower, we expect much of this effect to be mitigated by strong hedging positions this year, and remain focused on price recovery next year with very strong increases reflected in both the strip and our revised forecast. Overall, broad valuations are flat to slightly higher coming out of this exercise, with oil/ liquids levered entities observing the highest 2017e CFO uptick. We remain constructive on the space, though the market will need to look past a trough of potentially weak pricing this summer.
Companies: ARX CPG ERF TOU POU CJ PPY SRX LXE
Coming off restriction from our participation in the Company’s latest equity financing, whereby Enerplus issued 33.4 mm common shares at a price of $6.90 per share for gross proceeds of $230 mm, we update our estimates. Since the end of 2015 Management has done an exemplary job of right sizing its capital and dividend programs and driving down its cost structure, while also rationalizing non-core assets, and now with this latest financing is well positioned to accelerate growth in the event of a sustained run in the crude oil tape. Our updated outlook reflects a markedly improved balance sheet with debt levels almost cut in half compared to year-end, while the Company is virtually undrawn on its $800 mm credit facility. On the back of a more constructive view on 2017e, specifically in the context of the current forward strip, we have increased our target price to $9.00 per share while upgrading Enerplus to an Outperform ranking, and would buy the stock here.
Enerplus reported 1Q16 results that were in line with production while coming in comfortably ahead on cash flow, primarily as a result of controllable cash costs and royalties that were 9% below forecast.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Enerplus. We currently have 48 research reports from 3 professional analysts.
Sylvania's share price has fallen 53% since its peaked on the 21st Feb, as the global economy hit the brakes. The short term demand outlook for PGMs is miserable, with supply chains breaking down as both luxury goods and car sales sales collapse.
Companies: Sylvania Platinum
Oil declined for a fifth straight week amid a one-two punch from collapsing demand due to the coronavirus crisis and ballooning supply from producers vying for market share. Futures in New York slumped 4.8% on Friday and are poised for the biggest quarterly drop on record as weak demand and an onslaught of supply roil markets. Refineries across the globe are curbing consumption as fuel use declines with people staying home. Meanwhile, major trader Trafigura Group expects as much as 1 billion barrels to be sent into storage tanks. More oil is headed into stockpiles as the Russia-Saudi war for market share that exacerbated crude's crash this month shows no sign of abating. The kingdom held firm on Friday, saying it hasn't had any contacts with Moscow about output cuts or on enlarging the OPEC+ alliance of producers. Russia also doubled down, with Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin saying oil at $25 a barrel is unpleasant, but not a catastrophe for Moscow. US crude has tumbled about 65% so far this quarter. The crash has crippled domestic producers who are forced to cut production for the first time in 35 years. The International Energy Agency this week warned that global demand was in “free fall” amid coronavirus lockdowns. Meanwhile, Iraq -- OPEC's second-biggest producer -- will allow national oil companies to boost their output and export without imposing any ceiling. Algeria has asked for an emergency OPEC board meeting to discuss the cuts. It comes as one of the world's largest supertanker owners said that ships are being filled with crude at a record pace, as land storage rapidly diminishes. Prices: West Texas Intermediate fell $1.09 to settle at $21.51 a barrel in New York on Friday. Prices dropped 4.1% this week. Brent crude lost $1.41 to settle at $24.93 a barrel. Swaps markets show that physical crude is selling several dollars below benchmark prices. The signs of storage starting to fill are growing, too. Inland tanks for heating oil in Germany are now full, while Pakistan banned oil imports on Thursday because its stockpiles are now sufficiently built up. Rigzone.
Companies: FOG PVR 88E DGOC EME POS TRIN UOG
Shearwater sells resilience and today's trading update shows us how resilient demand has been for its products and services. The Group has swung to EBITDA profitability and cash flow is well ahead of expectations. The macro themes of cyber security and remote working are supportive of robust demand levels going forward. We are maintaining our forecasts. Buy.
Companies: Shearwater Group
Strategic Production Acquisition and TSX Listing i3 Energy announced today that is has entered an option agreement to acquire all of the outstanding shares of TSX listed Toscana Energy Income Corporation. Toscana produced on average 1,065 boe/d in 2019 and has 2P reserves of 4.65 mmboe of which 55% consists of oil (and natural gas liquids) and 45% consists of natural gas. Toscana's low-decline production is located in Western Canada. Toscana's lands include a very large holding over one of Western Canada's leading new oil plays targeting the Clearwater formation. i3 Energy has acquired the entirety of Toscana's $C28.2M of senior and junior secured debt for $C3.4M representing a price of $C0.12 per dollar of outstanding debt. i3 is now Toscana's secured lender. The debt purchase was funded with i3 Energy's existing cash resources. i3 Energy has agreed to issue up to 4,399,224 of its shares, representing circa 4% of i3 Energy's existing share capital to acquire the entirety of Toscana's shares, representing a market value of circa $C0.55M based on the market values of 27 March 2020. We believe the announcement represents a positive and transformational change for i3 Energy.
Companies: I3 Energy
Caledonia today announces that it has taken the prudent decision to defer its approval for the payment of the second quarterly dividend (7.5c/sh - $0.9m - 7% of declared Caledonia cash). The Blanket mine in Zimbabwe remains in operation (at a slightly reduced capacity to secure Covid-19 social distancing) and the mine site remains well-stocked with supplies, so despite the current difficulties getting supplies from South Africa production at the mine can continue for some time to come; 2-3 months in our opinion, if the supply chain from South Africa ceased altogether. Touchstar is a supplier of mobile data computing solutions and managed services to a variety of industrial sectors. This morning, the group has released an update in light of COVID-19. The Board reports that it has taken swift action to re-engineer processes to adhere to government guidelines, whilst maintaining client service levels. Q1 2020 trading is reported to have been ‘broadly' in line, with revenue growth of 40% from continuing operations and outstanding orders to ship to customers in the coming months. Q1 was cash neutral, which follows on from the RNS on 5 February, of a net cash position of £849k as at 31 December 2019.
Companies: Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc Com Shs Npv Touchstar
We are reinstating coverage with a Buy rating and price target of 50p following the recent £15m share placing to fund production scale-up for micro-batteries. Our TP reflects a DCF of the micro-battery business which has sufficient customer interest to achieve over £12m annual sales by FY23 and £25m later this decade we believe, generating EBITDA of £1.7m and £7m respectively.
Much of the UK’s privatisation programme took place between the early 1980s and the mid-1990s: subsequent sales have been few. Undoubtedly, privatisation attracted many private investors to the market, many for the first time.
Companies: AVO AGY ARBB ARIX BUR CLIG DNL FLTA GDR NSF PCA PIN PXC PHP RE/ RECI RMDL STX SCE SIXH TRX SHED VTA
Caledonia today provides an update on its Blanket mine in Zimbabwe in the light of the full lockdown other than “for essential services” from today as ordered by President Mnangagwa. The mine is still operating as the authorities will grant exemptions for businesses which demonstrate they can operate in a manner that contributes to the management of the spread of Covid-19 infections. Caledonia has applied for this exemption.
Companies: Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc Com Shs Npv
Quadrise’s business development activity has intensified in the last nine months, with progress on opportunities in Morocco, South America, Saudi Arabia (KSA) and the marine sector. COVID-19 will potentially extend the length of time taken to complete trials. However, management notes that the current low oil prices are not likely to have a material impact on interest in using its innovative MSAR fuel as a heavy fuel oil substitute.
Companies: Quadrise Fuels International
Ironveld has signed a range of conditional financing agreements with Inclusive Investment Group (IIG) that mark a step change in its ability to advance its iron, vanadium and titanium project in the prolific Bushveld Complex of South Africa. The agreements will see IIG provide Ironveld with $3.2m in both debt and equity with IIG to take a stake of up to 46.8% in the company subject to certain shareholder approvals. This locks IIG in as a meaningful strategic partner and should allow Ironveld to progress Phase I of its project while it seeks the broader financing required to bring it in to development
Oil posted the biggest weekly plunge since 2008, capping its most dramatic week in recent memory as major producers prepare to drench the market with supply just as the coronavirus crushes demand. But prices jumped following the close, after President Donald Trump said the U.S. would fill the nation's strategic reserve. Losses for the week totalled 23% after the collapse of talks between members of the OPEC+ group triggered the biggest crash in a generation. Instead of reaching a deal to cut output to mitigate the fallout from the virus, producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia embarked on a war for market share and pledged to pump more.
Companies: TGL TXP VLU EGY GTE CNE DGOC ENQ SQZ UKOG TRIN TLW PHAR
Diversified Gas & Oil is emerging as a new model for the E&P market, balancing low fixed costs with efficient operations to generate consistent cash flows. Since the Company's foundation, DGO's strategy has remained unchanged, delivering stable production, whilst maintaining capital discipline to deliver cash flows and shareholder returns. Efficient operations combined with low fixed costs means DGO can deliver strong margins at low prices - vital in the current environment. The DGO model does not follow that of its capital intensive North American “peers” and nor does it follow that of its international London listed “peers”, putting DGO in a league of its own. With many of the Permian oil producers and Appalachian gas producers cutting back on capex in the current price environment, we see a recovery in the gas prices, with the current oversupply of gas turning into an undersupply as production and stores fall away. We believe the M&A market will provide a great opportunity for DGO over the next 12-24 months, with inevitably some E&P's not being able to survive the current low price environment. We update our model incorporating the extension of the Company's asset retirement agreement with the state of Ohio, the latest forward price curves and the GBP/USD exchange rate, increasing our price target to 148p/share (from 121p/share) and our BUY recommendation.
Companies: Diversified Gas & Oil
Against the backdrop subdued commodity pricing, JKX has delivered another robust set of annual results. Yesterday’s FY19 figures show a 9.5% yoy increase in revenues, coming in at the upper end of guidance, and a 116% increase in PBT to US$30.4m. Operationally, FY19 was an active year for JKX, delivering material value accretive barrels to the company’s production base in the Ukraine, whilst declines in Russia at Well 20 have been largely offset by Wells 18 and 5. The Company’s shares currently trade at only 83% of annualised cash generated from operations, underlining its deep discount to NAV therefore offers compelling value to shareholders in our view.
Companies: JKX Oil And Gas