U.S. futures and European stocks dropped on Friday as investors mulled a reported conflict among policy makers over a stimulus package for the single-currency region, as well as political upheaval in France. The Stoxx 600 Index fell after Bloomberg News reported the European Central Bank is facing a potential rift over how much their emergency bond-purchase program should stay weighted toward weaker countries such as Italy. The euro fluctuated following French President Emmanuel Macron's decision to name a new prime minister after asking his government to resign. Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc slumped after the British jet-engine maker said its exploring options to raise funds to strengthen its balance sheet. The dollar was slightly down, posting its first weekly drop in a month, while American cash equity and bond markets were shut for Independence Day. President Donald Trump will attend an early July 4 celebration at Mount Rushmore with thousands of guests who won't be required to wear masks, while his U.K. counterpart Boris Johnson urged Britons to act responsibly as pubs prepare to re-open and the government lifts quarantine rules on travel for 60 countries. The friction at the ECB highlights the risk to markets should promised stimulus measures fall short. Investors continue to weigh policy support and upbeat economic data against relentless new outbreaks of the virus. U.S payrolls figures Thursday fuelled optimism of a V-shaped recovery in the world's biggest economy, even as Florida reported that infections and hospitalizations jumped the most yet, and Houston had a surge in intensive-care patients. Emerging-market stocks posted the biggest weekly gain in a month. Elsewhere, crude oil dipped but remained on track for a weekly gain.
Companies: TGL JSE IAE ADME BP/ DGOC ENOG NTQ NTOG PMO RBD ZPHR RDSA UKOG TRIN
Bahamas Petroleum (BPC LN): Funding capacity increased to US$45m | Echo Energy (ECHO LN): Operational scale back in light of commodity pricing | Ithaca Energy: Isabella discovery
Companies: BPC ECHO IAE
Bahamas Petroleum Company (BPC LN) (not covered): Cessation of Exclusivity Agreement | PetroTal (TAL CN) (not covered): 2Q18 results | Ithaca Energy: Acquisition in the UK North Sea
Companies: BPC PQE IAE
Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA/B LN) (not covered) & Woodside Petroleum (WPL AU) (not covered): Upsized deal | Ithaca Energy: 3Q17 production in the North Sea | JKX (JKX LN) (not covered): October production in Russia and the Ukraine | Wentworth Resources (WRL LN/NO)1,6; BUY, £0.35: 3Q17 Results | Solo Oil (SOLO LN) (not covered): US$5mm convertible loan facility
Companies: RDSA IAE JKX WRL SOLO
Ithaca Energy (IAE CN/LN)1,6: Discontinuing coverage | Sterling Resources (SLG CN)1: Discontinuing coverage | Africa Oil (AOI CN/SS); BUY, C$2.80 & Tullow Oil (TLW LN); HOLD, £2.40: Emekuya-1 Oil Discovery in Kenya
Companies: IAE SLG AOI TLW
Premier Oil (PMO LN); Speculative Buy, £1.30: Strong operating update | Serinus Energy (SEN CN)1; Speculative Buy, C$0.65: Receipt of EBRD Waiver | Valeura Energy (VLE CN)1,6; BUY, C$1.25:1Q17 dominated by closing acquisitions that are transformational to the business | Ithaca Energy (IAE LN/CN)1,6; Buy, £1.40: 1Q17 results | San Leon Energy (SLE LN) (not covered); Settlement with Avobone | Caspian Sunrise (formerly Roxi Petroleum) (CASP LN) (not covered); FY16 Results | TransGlobe Energy (TGL CN); BUY, C$5.00: 1Q17 results and increased activity upcoming | ShaMaran Petroleum (SNM CN) (not covered): 1Q17 Results | Ophir Energy (OPHR LN); Reduce, £0.80: Dry hole in Cote d’Ivoire | Total (FP FP) (not covered): Expands Exploration in Mauritania
Companies: PMO SEN VLE IAE SLE TGL SNM OPHR FP
Americas GeoPark Limited (GPRK US)1,6; BUY, US$10.50: Increasing cash flow estimates after strong 1Q17 results | Pacific Exploration and Production (PEN CN)1,6; BUY, C$66.00: Moving in the right direction, production increasing and commitments decreasing | Parex Resources (PXT CN)6,8; BUY, C$26.00: Big cash flow beat in 1Q17 and improved outlook | President Energy (PPC LN) (not covered): Ongoing disputes with service providers in Argentina | Serinus Energy (SEN CN)1 ; Speculative Buy, C$0.65: 1Q17 Results| Ithaca Energy (IAE CN/LN)1,6; Buy, £1.40: Delek Takeover Compulsory Shares Acquisition | Hurricane Energy (HUR LN) (not covered); YE16 Results & Warrant Issue | Neptune; US$3.9 bn assets acquisition | Exillon Energy (EXI LN) (not covered); April Production | Africa Oil (AOI CN/SS); Buy, C$2.80: 1Q17 results | Tower Resources (TRP LN) (not covered); Trading Suspension
Companies: GPRK PRE PXT PPC SEN IAE HUR EXI AOI TRP
The Mission Marketing Group* (TMMG): Valuation anomaly (CORP) | Ithaca Energy (IAE): FY 2016 results (HOLD) | Sopheon* (SPE): Stronger and stronger (CORP) | Shanta Gold (SHG): New mine plan for New Luika (BUY) | Ideagen* (IDEA): Acquisition and placing (CORP)
Companies: TMG IAE SPE SHG IDEA
Enquest (ENQ LN): Speculative Buy, £0.65: Kraken FPSO in the field and hooked up in the North Sea | Ithaca Energy (IAE LN/CN)6: BUY, £1.40: Stella First Hydrocarbons in the North Sea | Bowleven (BLVN LN) (not covered): Denies claims made by Crown Ocean Capital
Companies: ENQ IAE BLVN
Ithaca Energy (IAE): First oil from Stella (HOLD)
Companies: Ithaca Energy
Companies: CHAR EOG FO HUR IOG IAE PMG SAC SOU WRL
Ithaca Board recommends shareholders accept $646m deal
GeoPark (GPRK US)1,6; BUY, US$6.50: Announces new exploration discovery and development drilling successes in Colombia | Eco Atlantic Oil and Gas (EOG CN) (not covered): Raising Equity and Listing on AIM | Ithaca Energy (IAE LN/CN): Recommended takeover offer by Delek | Aker BP (AKERBP NO) (not covered): 4Q16 results | Europa Oil & Gas (EOG LN) (not covered) & Angus Energy (ANGS LN) (not covered): £2 mm fundraising and Acquisition of Interest in PEDL143 in the UK | Tethys petroleum (TPL LN/CN) (not covered): Corporate update | Transglobe Energy (TGL CN); BUY, C$6.00: 2017: capital budget | Aminex (AEX LN) (not covered) & Solo Oil (SOLO LN) (not covered): Ntorya-2 Initial Well Results in Tanazania
Companies: GPRK IAE TPL TGL
Cello (CLL): Leveraging technology, investing for growth (BUY) | Water Intelligence* (WATR): Contract win evidences strategic progress (CORP) | Europa Oil & Gas* (EOG): Holmwood farmout (CORP) | Ithaca Energy (IAE): Takeover by Delek (BUY) | Frontier Developments* (FDEV): Initial details of third franchise (CORP) | BATM* (BVC): Diagnostic lab acquisition (CORP) | Orchard Funding* (ORCH): Strenghtening the model (CORP)
Companies: CLL WATR EOG IAE FDEV BVC ORCH
First oil at Stella is delayed by about a month, reducing the contribution of Stella to FY17 production by the same period. While this has an impact on FY17e free cash flow, this is negligible to our valuation. More importantly, FY17 opex are estimated at only US$18/boe, below our estimates of US$20/boe. There are opportunities to reduce opex further. Harrier is expected to reach first oil in 2018, one year earlier than we expected and at a cost of US$40 mm lower than we anticipated. The overall development cost is less than US$6.0/boe. Ithaca holds numerous discoveries around Stella that would be developed with a similar cost structure to Harrier.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Ithaca Energy. We currently have 85 research reports from 6 professional analysts.
i3 Energy has successfully entered the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin having secured the acquisition of Gain Energy and Toscana Energy. The company has been transformed into a prolific oil & gas producer – June 2020 production levels were circa 9,500 boe/d. All-in, the assets have been ascribed 2P reserves of 58.5 mm boe. Based largely on the analysis of i3 Energy's competent persons, GLJ and Sproule, we are putting forward a preliminary fair value estimate of 17.7p for the company's Canadian assets.
Companies: i3 Energy Plc
For this Monthly, we are delighted that Rooney Nimmo and 24Haymarket have allowed us to reproduce a recent report they jointly published, entitled An analysis of UK exits (2015-2019), which provides a granular analysis by sector of the activity in our dynamic private companies world. We hope you find the insights of interest.
Companies: AVO AGY ARBB ARIX CLIG ICGT NSF PCA PIN PXC PHP RECI SCE TRX SHED VTA
Diversified Gas & Oil (DGO) has announced another strong set of numbers following the release of its H1/20 interim results. Production averaged 95,100boepd, with a June 2020 exit rate net production of 109,000boepd (including 18,700boepd from the EQT and Carbon Energy acquisitions). Despite the commodity price volatility, which saw NYMEX natural gas prices fall to a low of US$1.42/mmbtu in June, DGO recorded Adjusted EBITDA of US$146m during H1/20 (H1/19: US$142m), driven by a US$84m settled hedge gain. Setting DGO apart from the rest of the industry is its dividend policy, with DGO announcing a 7% increase to its June 2020 quarter ended dividend, to 3.75c. We set our price target in line with our Core NAV at 151p per share, a 44% premium to the current share price and reiterate our BUY recommendation.
Companies: Diversified Gas & Oil Plc
Jubilee announces today it has both acquired a new chrome processing facility in South Africa (Windsor 8) from a private group in South Africa and arranged an offtake agreement that fully fills its existing Windsor Chrome circuits for the next three years. Jubilee will operate Windsor 8 and make circuit changes to maximise recoveries – Jubilee commits to spending £0.44m to upgrade the plant but is entitled to this (plus interest) back before sharing earnings form the JV on a 70:30 basis with its JV partner. “Windsor 8” is located ~50km from Windsor towards Rustenburg along the Western Limb of the Bushveld complex in the heart of the Bushveld chrome resources – extending Jubilee's reach for further potential parcels of additional material further west.
Companies: Jubilee Metals Group Plc
Lake Way is one of the most advanced SOP development projects globally and the A$300m financing is a major milestone to pass. The SFA incorporates no refinancing restrictions after 18 months, giving Salt Lake the potential to refinance this relatively expensive debt and flexibility to utilise non-dilutive financing options for early works at its next lake development. A trade-off study is currently underway with a decision on the next lake development expected in the first half of 2021 and the medium-term goal of producing SOP across multiple lakes. As reported in the 2019 BFS, at 245ktpa of SOP, the Project is expected to generate EBITDA of A$111m and average annual post tax free cash flow of A$78m. Payback is estimated to be 3.6 years. With eleven lakes in the Goldfields and the potential to be self financing going forward Salt Lake offers significant growth potential and we maintain our Buy rating.
Companies: Salt Lake Potash Ltd.
Caledonia Mining announces Q2 results from its 64%-owned Blanket mine in Zimbabwe today. On the back of management focus and an increased gold price the results continue to improve quarter-by-quarter. Production is up against this time last year to 27.7koz gold for the half year (24.7koz) and on track for managements forecast of between 53-56koz (WHI est. 55.5koz) for the year. Revenues were up in H1 2020 which led to increased Gross Profit at $22.5m (adj. $15m after a one off FX gain) and an improved level of cash at $11.6m ($7.9m); despite a continued $8m investment in the mine expansion ($8.3m). COVID has had little impact on operations at the mine with Caledonia helping Zimbabwe with a $1.1m contribution. Along with its gold producing peers, Caledonia has seen a significant increase in valuation over the course of the year. The increasing gold price has allowed Caledonia to maintain its Central Shaft construction as well as increase the dividend (twice) within the year. We anticipate that the dividend will increase again as Caledonia winds down its capex spend on the Central Shaft and as the increased gold production flows through to the cash flow line. We see fair value in Caledonia at 1,900p after increasing our gold price forecast in line with recent increases. Caledonia remains a solidly run business with an expanding production profile and a potentially exciting in-country source of new projects.
Companies: Caledonia Mining Corp. Plc
A premier European source of hard rock lithium Savannah is developing the Mina Do Barroso lithium project in Portugal. An advanced-stage project using simple mining and processing techniques to produce a high-grade, low-impurity spodumene lithium concentrate for sale to China (in the first instance). Mina do Barroso will eventually form part of the solution to Europe's lithium raw material supply chain and will, in our opinion, attract high level support. It has a low capital intensity and as such it is appropriately sized for Savannah to develop to cash-generative stage. The project lies in a prospective area and we would not be surprised if additional resources could be found to either extend the mine's life or increase its production. Savannah also has a (growing) stake in the Mutamba mineral sands project in Mozambique which, while not a priority, contains significant long-term value in our opinion. We initiate with a fair value of 10p/sh and see catalysts on further progress at Mina do Barroso and support from Europe to drive interest in the short-term.
Companies: Savannah Resources Plc
Oil fell in tandem with equities as concerns over renewed tensions between the US and China, and a murky outlook for further relief from Washington cast an economic pall. Futures dropped 1.7% in New York on Friday, the biggest decline in a week. US President Donald Trump's latest attack on Chinese tech companies and new sanctions on Chinese officials further stoked tensions between the countries. Meanwhile, another round of negotiations with Democrats on a virus relief plan ended without any agreement, indicating a long road ahead for a demand recovery. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose as much as 0.8% on Friday, reducing the appeal for commodities priced in the greenback. Crude is testing the upper bound of its recent trading range after hitting a five-month high this week amid declines in US stockpiles. But the spotty recovery in oil consumption is restraining a potential breakthrough, with crude imports into China shrinking in July. Drillers cut exploration in US oil fields to a 15-year low as billions of barrels from old discoveries became worthless and explorers abandoned growth plans. The 3-2-1 refining margin for combined gasoline and diesel against US WTI -- a rough profit gauge for processing a barrel of crude -- slumped more than 5% to below $10 a barrel as the pandemic keeps Americans at home during what is typically the summer driving season. In physical markets, Poseidon crude, a heavy sour oil, rose 5 cents to 45 cents above Nymex oil futures on Friday, the largest premium in over two months. Earlier this week, the discount on Bakken crude for delivery at Clearbrook, Minnesota, narrowed to 5 cents below Nymex WTI futures, its smallest discount since May. A fresh round of stimulus in the US could boost sentiment over the demand outlook, but lawmakers have yet to reach an agreement. No progress was made at the end of the week and it is not clear whether there will be additional discussions. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he will recommend Trump move ahead with executive actions to halt evictions and possibly restore some unemployment aid. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is returning supply to the market this month as it tapers its record output curbs, but habitual quota cheat Iraq has promised to make deeper cuts following a call with Saudi Arabia on Thursday. Oil Minister Ihsan Abdul Jabbar pledged that Iraq will cut output by an extra 400,000 barrels a day in August and September, on top of a previous commitment to slash 850,000 barrels a day in each month.
Companies: FO PRP 88E DGOC EME TRIN UOG
Savannah Resources controls the Mina do Barroso lithium project in northern Portugal, the only large-scale lithium spodumene project in Europe. The main attraction for equity investors is Barroso’s strategic value. Lithium chemicals are in demand by Europe’s fast-growing battery manufacturing sector, and the industry will need to import some raw materials from outside the region. However, the European Commission’s target (for its battery industry) is to “boost primary and secondary production from European sources”. We see this as very supportive of European ‘battery metals’ mining projects such as Barroso. Barroso’s progress, in terms of permitting, technical studies and funding, will help determine SAV’s share performance over the next 12 months. A large part of this progress is funding, and Savannah received a significant boost in May when it signed an agreement with the EU-backed organisation EIT InnoEnergy. EIT InnoEnergy has invested €570m in the sustainable energy sector and represents a proven source of direct and indirect/introduced funding for projects like Barroso.
Hargreaves’ FY20 results are very solid indeed. As previously reported, the only noticeable impact from COVID was in the slippage of Blindwells’ land sales, which were due to conclude during the lockdown period. Site activity has resumed and sales remain on track to conclude in the current year. A final dividend of 4.5p has been declared and the outlook statement is measured but confident. We reintroduce forecasts today, effectively reinstating our pre-COVID expectations. Hargreaves is well positioned to deliver a period of significant, renewed growth with the prospect of a double digit dividend yield from FY22 as HRMS profits are distributed.
Companies: Hargreaves Services Plc
In the midst of another attempted takeover by stealth, Petropavlovsk PLC (LSE: POG) announced their trading results for H1 2020 which leaves them on track to deliver one of their best years ever, operationally and financially, with more to come in 2021. This is down to the perseverance, skillset and hard work of the workforce out in the Amur Region and their CEO Dr Pavel Maslovskiy, who has staked his reputation on the successful build out of the POX plant. Any corporate raider (and shareholder alike) should realise, whether it be Vekselberg or UGC, that without the support of Dr Maslovskiy you won’t win the hearts and minds of the workforce essential for the smooth running of the organisation. Meanwhile, the gold price has run through $1,900/oz; clearly a positive for this leveraged business. Incorporating this and the results into our modelling delivers a new Target Price of 50p and the set of financials shown in the right-hand column.
Companies: Petropavlovsk Plc
GeoPark (GRPK US)C; Target price US$20: Cash tax reduction and high impact drilling– The only item of interest in the 2Q20 financials was the fact that GeoPark did not pay any cash tax in 2Q20 (we were carrying a payment of US$40 mm). This explains why the cash balance at the end of June was so much higher than we expected at the time of the 2Q20 operating update in July). This also reflects important positive changes in Colombia. First, US$20-25 mm cash taxes in 2020 have been deferred to 2021 leaving only US$15-20 mm due in 2H20. In addition, Colombia is accelerating the reimbursement of income tax credits. GeoPark has already collected US$15 mm in July that will offset the remaining 2H20 cash tax. Overall in 2020, the company could potentially obtain a total refund of US$25 mm of income tax (out of which US$15 mm is firm and collected in July) plus US$15-20 mm of VAT. The key wells to focus on in 2H20 will be the 1-2 wells to be drilled at CPO-5 (GeoPark WI: 30%). While these wells are expected to increase production, they will also allow the company to start derisking the exploration upside associated with the block. The first well will be a development/appraisal well in Indico where the oil water contact has not been encountered yet. The second well is an exploration well at Aguila targeting the same play concept. The share price continues to trade at ~45% discount to our Core NAV of ~US$19 per share. Overall there could be 350-700 mmboe gross prospective resources across its Llanos blocks (including CPO-5). Our target price of US$20 per share reflects our ReNAV and attributes only ~US$1 per share to exploration. It represents over 100% upside to the current levels. IN OTHER NEWS ________________________________________ AMERICAS Frontera Energy (FEC CN): 2Q20 results | Gran Tierra (GTE LN/US/CN): 2Q20 results | i3 Energy (I3E LN): Acquisition of Canadian assets and £30 mm funding | Maha Energy (MAHA-A SS): Production update in Brazil | Parex Resources (PXT CN): 2Q20 results ASIA PACIFIC Pharos Energy (PHAR LN): Licence extension in Vietnam and RBL confirmation EUROPE bp (BP LN): 2Q20 results and change of strategy | Hurricane Energy (HUR LN): Technical update in the UK | Neptune Energy: Discovery in Norway | Spirit Energy: Dry hole in Norway MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Genel Energy (GENL LN): 1H20 results SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Kosmos Energy (KOS US/LN): 2Q20 results | San Leon Energy (SLE LN): Acquires 10% Interest In new Nigerian oil export system | Vaalco Energy (EGY LN/US): 2Q20 results EVENTS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK ________________________________________ 10/08/2020: Diversified Gas & Oil (DGOC LN) – 2Q20 results 11/08/2020: JKX Oil & Gas (JKX LN) – 2Q20 results 13/08/2020: Africa oil (AOI CN/SS) – 2Q20 results
Companies: BP/ FEC GENL GPRK I3E PXT PHAR HUR KOS MAHAA EGY
• PetroTal has shut down the Bretana Field as a preemptive measure due to civil unrest outside the oil field camp. Bretana had restarted production on the 15th of July and was producing 8 mbbl/d as of the 27th of July (restricted rate). • An altercation between the police and protestors resulted in a dozen injuries and three deaths among the protestors. The civil unrest has been conducted by the same group that took over Petroperu’s Pump Station No.5. PetroTal indicated that this group is not from the Bretana area and that it is seeking Government assistance against the COVID-19 crisis. The community’s complaints are not related to PetroTal that is caught in the crossfire between the government and this community. We understand that the protestors also attempted without success to burn the home of the local mayor. The district prosecutor was on location and witnessed the sequence of events, including the breaking of a COVID-19 curfew by the protestors. • PetroTal will keep the field closed until things settle down and the local district prosecutor files its report, which is expected in the next few days. We also note that some of the key Peruvian ministers, including the Energy and Mines minister, made comments that the government will undertake the promised Amazonian investment plan to help the local communities. What if the shutdown last longer? We estimate PetroTal’s cash position at ~US$20 mm at the end of June. PetroTal has produced ~0.2 mmbbl and delivered a total of 0.08 mm bbl to Iquitos and to Petroperu pipeline equating to ~US$1.6 mm of cash inflow (net of transport and barging cost) since the field restarted mid-July. While the field is shutdown, we estimated PetroTal cash costs at ~ US$1 mm per month (including US$0.6 mm on the field). Cash capex (including
Companies: PetroTal Corp.
Solid results from Touchstone, which has spud its latest exploration well on the prolific Ortoire block, Chinook-1. Success would provide another major uplift to the valuation and the growth outlook. Production inevitably took a back seat to this drilling programme, but impressive cost reductions and cash preservation efforts leave Touchstone in a healthy financial position with ~US$15m of available liquidity. Touchstone remains not only an exciting high-impact exploration play but also a strong production and cash flow growth story as it looks to rapidly bring its material low-cost gas/condensate discoveries onshore Trinidad into production.
Companies: Touchstone Exploration, Inc.
Solid State is a manufacturer of computing, power and communications products, and value added distributor of electronic components. This morning, the group has provided a further update on trading in light of the present COVID-19 backdrop, ahead of full year results to 31 March 2020 due to be released on 30 June. Cadence today provides and update on the Amapá iron ore project in Brazil. The Amapá JV (EV Mineração S.A.), in which Cadence can earn an initial 20% of the project, is understood to be on track to begin shipping stockpiled iron ore from late Q2 / early Q3 2020. Finalisation of the negotiation with the secured creditors still needs to be reached, but the Amapá JV partners are engaging constructively. In preparation for shipping, a trucking contractor has been hired to move key equipment to site and a shipping manager and shipping broker have been engaged. This morning's update from CSSG confirms the positive direction of travel highlighted when the company published H1 results in March. With comparators still challenging (because of one-off work in the prior year), and “light” Covid-19 impacts in recent months, the expected £1.6m EBITDA flagged by the company seems a creditable number, still within touching distance of historical performance in both EBITDA and PBTA terms. Net cash, moreover, even after three months of the Covid-19 crisis, is reported to still be higher than the £2.4m which the company reports it had at the start (which in turn represents an increase on the £2.3m as at 31 December 2019). Not surprisingly, having suspended payment of the dividend a couple of months ago, the Board is now proposing to have another look at this question, at least in relation to the half year dividend. PTY's announcement this morning flags a change in the CFO role with the new appointee benefiting from extensive experience in developing digital businesses to their full potential, both in overall and in financial leadership positions. His arrival follows on from highly proactive action led by the previous finance director, delivering a platform for growth once the current uncertain circumstances have abated.
Companies: KDNC CSSG PTY SOLI
