We are discontinuing coverage on Marquee Energy Ltd. after the company’s shareholders voted to approve the Prairie Provident Resources Inc. (TSX:PPR) offer to acquire all of the issued and outstanding shares of Marquee for consideration of 0.0886 common shares of Prairie Provident Resources Inc. per Marquee share held. Accordingly, all prior research ratings, price targets and earnings estimates must no longer be relied upon.
Companies: MARQUEE ENERGY
Marquee announced year-end reserves that were unexpectedly positive, with decent FD&A costs and material positive technical revisions over and above GMP FE expectations. Sproule, Marquee’s reserve evaluator, opted to increase the company’s core Banff/Michichi type curve by +30% to 200 mboe, while liquids ratios remain unchanged at 65%. Marquee plans to release its audited 2017 financial statements on or around April 12th , 2018. At this juncture, we are opting to leave our $0.08/sh 12-month target price unchanged, implying a 6.7x 2019e DACF multiple at the current strip, while continuing to support a HOLD rating. Despite an improved cost structure throughout 2017e and early indications of enhanced well results, as supported by a type curve increase, we continue to support a HOLD rating on the stock as the company navigates a challenging debt profile ahead. We point to greater tenure surrounding the company’s 2018e drilling program and the release of 4Q17 financial results as potential positive catalysts for the stock in the near term.
Marquee reported second quarter financial and operating results that were largely in line with expectations. The Company reiterated its 2H16e outlook which will see a return to drilling activity at Michichi, with 4x Banff/Detrital horizontals planned for 2H16e, given an expected financial position of $15.0-$17.5 mm of net debt on a revised ~$30 mm LOC. While implied returns are robust on an unchanged 12-month target price, there appears to be some legal rumblings forthcoming from Alberta Oilsands shareholders. As such, until the transaction is closed, we view the equity as partially speculative, and hence now rank the stock as a Speculative Buy. All else equal, we are constructive on the stock at this price level.
Impact: Neutral. Quarterly results were overshadowed by the recent Alberta Oilsands acquisition, though per unit operating cost attrition continues to be positive.
This transaction provides much needed liquidity for Marquee, albeit undertaking significant dilution to common shareholders. The proforma entity should be able to continue as a going concern and be well capitalized enough to take advantage of Marquee’s strong asset base focused on its large footprint at Michichi. We have reduced our 12-month target price to $0.30/sh, effectively maintaining our prior 2017e EV/DACF valuation multiple. In the absence of the receipt of its 2Q16 results, we are maintaining our Market Perform ranking, though at current prices post initial market reaction, there is a basis forming to suggest the stock should be bought at current levels.
Impact: Positive within the context of continuation of a going concern and a capital structure positioned to take advantage of future acquisition opportunities though the stock will initially trade lower. This transaction provides much needed liquidity for Marquee, albeit undertaking significant dilution to common shareholders. The proforma entity should be well capitalized enough to take advantage of Marquee's strong asset base focused on its large footprint at Michichi.
Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly reversed into summer, market likely to ignore financials for natural gas producers and look ahead to winter and formalization of sell-side 2018e estimates in coming months. Spot AECO natural gas prices recently crested C$2.60/mcf, and with a reasonable alignment of previously distressed NE BC Stn2 differentials, augmented by a withdrawal expected next week, view the market psyche as constructive and looking ahead, with the analogy that this market is shaping up to mirror 2012 still holding. That said, with crude oil poised to retest support levels, combined with strong stock price performance broadly observed YTD, we would characterize sentiment as slightly pessimistic in the near-term which could reduce or unwind momentum-based investment strategies that have worked thus far in 2016.
Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PWT PSK VII TOU VET WCP BNE CJ CR DEE JOY KEL LTS NVA PPY PNE RRX RMP SRX SGY TOG TET ATU CKE GXE IKM LXE MQL PRQ SPE SKX TVE TVETF YO
Impact: Positive as the Company continues to rationalize non-core assets while also reducing capital commitments associated with the PVR at Lloydminster. That said, we continue to await the completion of the Company's bank line review.
Marquee reported first quarter financial and operating results that were in line with expectations.
Impact: Neutral as quarterly results were in line with our forecasts with no changes to formal 2016e guidance at this juncture.
Impact: Positive. The non-core disposition aligns with corporate strategy to focus on its Banff/Detrital asset at Michichi while helping to reduce the Company's current debt and future asset retirement obligations without sacrificing much in the way of cash flow generation.
With this publication we briefly summarize our projections for 1Q16e quarterly results for the Junior E&P (Intermediate, Mid & Small Cap) segments of our coverage universe
Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PSK VII TOU VET WCP BNE CJ CR DEE JOY KEL LTS LRE NVA PPY PNE RRX RMP SRX SGY TOG TET ATU CKE GXE IKM LXE ROAOF MQL RE SPE SKX TVE TVETF YGR YO
With this publication we highlight various metrics and statistics forthcoming from yearend reserve books for our Domestic E&P coverage universe (Integrateds, Large Cap, Oilsands, Intermediate, Mid Cap, and Small Cap). Similar charts for YE2014 reserves can be found in our Statistical Package dated April 7, 2015.
Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PWT VII TXP VET WCP BNE CJ KEL LTS LRE NVA PPY PNE RRX RMP SRX SGY TOG TET ATU BXO CKE GXE IKM LXE MQL SKX TVE TVETF YGR YO
Marquee reported fourth quarter financial and operating results that fell short of our expectations. Its 2015 year-end reserve book was positive however, as is an updated NAV view on our price forecast ahead. The Company’s stock remains a compelling potential investment, exhibiting significant financial and operational leverage on crude oil price recovery, though may be too illiquid and too risky for renewed institutional interest as it moves downmarket looking for potential vehicles to invest in on that notion. Our revised 2016e and 2017e forecast is down materially on new 2016e guidance that is underwhelming relative to revised growth targets. We have increased our 12 month target price to $0.45/sh, though maintain a Market Perform ranking.
Impact: Slightly negative. Fourth quarter operating results trailed our estimates while the announced 2016e capital program and production guidance will lead our estimates lower. FD&A metrics were strong, though were aided by the production volume royalty sale during the year.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on MARQUEE ENERGY. We currently have 34 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
UK railway privatisation, which was launched in the mid-1990s, has finally turned full circle: the Department of Transport has recently confirmed that its controversial railway franchise system will be scrapped. In this month's feature article, Nigel Hawkins, the Infrastructure analyst at Hardman & Co, examines the 25-year history of railway privatisation and chronicles its ups and its downs. The successes of railway privatisation, such as new rolling stock, are addressed, along with the many shortcomings, which included minimal vertical integration. With the winding up of the franchise system, the UK railway sector is effectively reverting to its former status as a nationalised industry, a shift started with the renationalisation of the collapsed Railtrack – later re-badged as Network Rail – in 2001.
Companies: ARBB BBGI CLIG DNL FLTA ICGT OCI PCA PIN PXC RECI SCE TRX SHED VTA YEW
Shanta Gold (AIM: SHG), the East Africa-focused gold producer has, this morning, released its full year results for 2020. The company previously announced production and operational figures for 2020 alongside group-wide reserves and resources update. As such the figures reported today are in line with our forecasts down to EBITDA level, but generally better than expected elsewhere– see Fig 1. Overall it has clearly been a strong year financially with revenue, EBITDA and EPS up by 31%, 34% and 270% respectively from the previous year. The company has also kept to its promise of a maiden dividend with 0.10p per share payable in April as part of a semi-annual programme.
Companies: Shanta Gold Limited
Proposed move to AIM from the main market (standard) by Emmerson (EML.L) to provide Emmerson with access to a market and environment which is more suited, in the Board's view, to the Company's current size and strategy ahead of pivotal period for the Company with the commencement of mine construction at the Khemisset Potash Project expected by end of 2021. Follows recent award of Mining Licence granting Emmerson exclusive right to develop and mine the potash deposit and £5.5m raise to fund ongoing project development work. Subject to EGM on 21st March. Rogue Baron plc have announced its application for admission to the AQSE growth market. Rogue Baron owns five subsidiaries, namely: Shinju Spirits, Inc., Shinju Whiskey LLC, Mazeray Corporation, STI Signature Spirits Group LLC and Legacy Retail Group LLC. The Company’s goal is to build each of its brands that makes them a buyout target. Deal size TBC an expected admission date 12th March 2021. Global review platform, Trustpilot has announced its intention to float on the premium list of the LSE. Trustpilot provides an open platform, which creates a place where businesses and consumers can gain actionable insights and collaborate. Consumers are able to share feedback, at any time, about any business with a website and review feedback left by other consumers. Total revenues were US$64.3 million, US$81.9 million and US$102.0 million for the years ended 31 December 2018, 2019 and 2020, respectively. The Offer would comprise new Shares to be issued by the Company (raising gross proceeds of approximately US$50 million to support Trustpilot's growth plans and repay indebtedness) and an offer of existing Shares to be sold by certain existing shareholders, directors and employees. Timing TBC. In The Style, the e-commerce womenswear fashion brand with an influencer collaboration model, announces their intention to float on AIM. In The Style is a pure-play e-commerce fashion brand with a l customer base of women predominantly aged between 16 and 35. Founded in 2013, the group has delivered £35.4 million net sales and £3.6 million Adjusted EBITDA in the nine months to 31 December 2020, with sales up 159% from £13.7 million for the nine months to 31 December 2019. Admission is expected to take place on or around 17 March 2021. Deal size TBC. Media reports video game firm, Catalis is mulling a London IPO, just over a year after being bought by a private equity firm. Catalis’s accounts are reportedly expected to show revenues increasing to £60m in 2020, up from £43m, with adjusted earnings of £15m. Deal details and timing TBC. tinyBuild— a leading video games publisher and developer with global operations. tinyBuild's strategic focus is in creating longlasting IP by partnering with video games developers, establishing a stable platform on which to build multi-game and multimedia franchises is to join AIM. Offer details TBC. Due mid-March. AMTE Power, a developer and manufacturer of lithium-ion battery cells for specialist markets, announced its intention to seek admission to trading on AIM. Admission is expected to take place during March 2021. The Company intends to raise approximately £7m by way of a placing of new ordinary shares in the capital of the Company. Timing TBC. Samarkand Group Limited, the cross-border eCommerce technology and retail group opening up the world's largest market for brands and retailers, intends to IPO on the Apex Segment Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market. Admission is targeted for March 2021. NextEnergy Renewables to launch an IPO on the Main Market. NREN is a differentiated renewables investment Company that aims to capture the most attractive private renewables and energy transition infrastructure investment opportunities globally. Targeting a £300m raise. NREN is targeting total returns of 9-11 per cent. per annum (net of all fees and expenses but including the Target Dividend and capital appreciation) . The Company's target dividend yield for the first full financial year to 31 December 2022 is 5.5 pence. Due Early March 2021. Digital 9 Infrastructure launch an initial public offering on the Specialist Fund Segment of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange, by way of an initial placing and offer for subscription for a target issue £400m. Digital 9 Infrastructure plc is a newly established, externally managed investment trust. The Company will invest in a range of digital infrastructure assets which deliver a reliable, functioning internet. The IPO Prospectus is expected to be published in March 2021. Team PLC announced their plans for an AIM IPO. Team owns Theta Enhanced Asset Management Ltd, trading as Team Asset Management. This is a Jersey-based active fund manager providing discretionary and advisory portfolio management services to private clients, trusts and charities. Assets under management were GBP291m in November, up from GBP140m in December 2019 . The Company is seeking to raise no less than £5m. The Placing will be priced on a pre-money valuation for the Company of £7m. Targeting March Admission. Fix Price announces its intention to float on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Fix Price is one of the leading variety value retailers globally and the largest in Russia, with more than 4,200 stores. Fix Price has revenues of RUB 190.1bn, RUB 142.9bn and RUB 108.7bn for 2020, 2019 and 2018, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA for the same years was RUB 36.8bn, RUB 27.2bn and RUB 14.2bn, respectively. The Offer would consist of an offering of GDRs by certain existing shareholders of the Company. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC announced its prospectus has been approved by the FCA. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC is a newly established, externally managed closed-ended investment company. The Company will provide project finance to content makers and commissioners in the global television and film production industry via senior loans secured against pre-sold intellectual property (IP) rights. GPEIT's investment objective is to provide Shareholders with dividend income and modest capital growth through exposure to media content finance. According to media reports, Deliveroo is expecting to release its IPO plans on 8th March. The company raised more than $180m in January with a valuation of more than $7bn.
Companies: LND GDR GAMA SOLI SHED RLE CRU WRES SBI MNO
Today's news & views, plus announcements from MRW, BNZL, HICL, AGK, SEPL, SEIT, SDY, BGO, SHED
Companies: BGO SEIT SEPL
Lancaster activity update
Companies: Hurricane Energy Plc
Pantheon Resources has this morning announced that the better than expected well-logs from the Kuparuk formation warranted a change in plan for the testing of that formation, namely, from an open hole test to a more rigorous cased hole test (with a 4 ½ inch liner). However, due to equipment failures and technical issues, the formation started to become damaged in its current location and as such it was not possible to set the casing string (4 ½ inch liner). Accordingly, the company has made the decision to drill a new modestly angled sidetrack in the Kuparuk formation. It is estimated that the sidetrack will take 2-3 days to drill, some 650 feet through the Kuparuk formation, which should then allow a better testing operation. As a result of the cold weather in Alaska, the drilling season may be extended into early April.
Companies: Pantheon Resources plc
Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) BUY – H2/20 exploration work returns exciting results at Gedabek CA Bushveld Minerals* (BMN LN) - Strong Buy 31p – Vanadium prices rise as new demand meets tight supply Gemfields (GEM LN) – Resumption of operations at Kagem and Montepuez after a year of disrupted production and sales GoldStone Resources* (GRL LN) – Exercise of warrants raises £1.2m Power Metal Resources* (POW LN) – Portfolio update Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) – Continued access to Cobre confirmed while current copper prices boost Leigh Creek economic returns
Companies: GML AAZ BMN GRL POW SML
tinyBuild— a leading video games publisher and developer with global operations. tinyBuild's strategic focus is in creating longlasting IP by partnering with video games developers, establishing a stable platform on which to build multi-game and multimedia franchises is to join AIM. Offer details TBC. Due mid-March. AMTE Power, a developer and manufacturer of lithium-ion battery cells for specialist markets, announced its intention to seek admission to trading on AIM. Admission is expected to take place during March 2021. The Company intends to raise approximately £7m by way of a placing of new ordinary shares in the capital of the Company. Timing TBC. Samarkand Group Limited, the cross-border eCommerce technology and retail group opening up the world's largest market for brands and retailers, intends to IPO on the Apex Segment Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market. Admission is targeted for March 2021. NextEnergy Renewables to launch an IPO on the Main Market. NREN is a differentiated renewables investment Company that aims to capture the most attractive private renewables and energy transition infrastructure investment opportunities globally. Targeting a £300m raise. NREN is targeting total returns of 9-11 per cent. per annum (net of all fees and expenses but including the Target Dividend and capital appreciation) . The Company's target dividend yield for the first full financial year to 31 December 2022 is 5.5 pence. Due Early March 2021. Digital 9 Infrastructure launch an initial public offering on the Specialist Fund Segment of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange, by way of an initial placing and offer for subscription for a target issue £400m. Digital 9 Infrastructure plc is a newly established, externally managed investment trust. The Company will invest in a range of digital infrastructure assets which deliver a reliable, functioning internet. The IPO Prospectus is expected to be published in March 2021. Team PLC announced their plans for an AIM IPO. Team owns Theta Enhanced Asset Management Ltd, trading as Team Asset Management. This is a Jersey-based active fund manager providing discretionary and advisory portfolio management services to private clients, trusts and charities. Assets under management were GBP291m in November, up from GBP140m in December 2019 . The Company is seeking to raise no less than £5m. The Placing will be priced on a pre-money valuation for the Company of £7m. Targeting March Admission. Fix Price announces its intention to float on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Fix Price is one of the leading variety value retailers globally and the largest in Russia, with more than 4,200 stores. Fix Price has revenues of RUB 190.1bn, RUB 142.9bn and RUB 108.7bn for 2020, 2019 and 2018, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA for the same years was RUB 36.8bn, RUB 27.2bn and RUB 14.2bn, respectively. The Offer would consist of an offering of GDRs by certain existing shareholders of the Company. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC announced its prospectus has been approved by the FCA. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC is a newly established, externally managed closed-ended investment company. The Company will provide project finance to content makers and commissioners in the global television and film production industry via senior loans secured against pre-sold intellectual property (IP) rights. GPEIT's investment objective is to provide Shareholders with dividend income and modest capital growth through exposure to media content finance. According to media reports, Deliveroo, are expecting to release their IPO plans on 8th March. The company raised more than $180m in January with a valuation of more than $7bn.
Companies: ADME NFC CHAR WHR MKA IXI MOS D4T4 ALS TERN
Oil fell the most since November with a stronger dollar and concerns surrounding inflation weighing on crude's best start to the year on record. Futures in New York declined 3.2% on Friday, with a rising dollar reducing the appeal of commodities priced in the currency. Yet, the US crude benchmark still managed to post a nearly 18% gain this month as inventories worldwide tighten and pockets of demand return. Domestic crude production dropped in 2020 for the first time in four years, according to the US government. Crude prices have notched the largest year-to-date gain than in any year prior for the same time period, in part due to OPEC+ production curbs helping to deplete global stockpiles. Plus, the unprecedented cold blast that recently halted millions of barrels of US output means oil markets are about 100,000 barrels a day tighter than previously thought, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. Supply scarcity may worsen in the coming months as North Sea fields undergo major maintenance. The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies will meet next week to decide on output levels. While Russia has signalled it favours a further easing of production cuts, the country's oil output dipped below its OPEC+ target this month, meaning it failed to take full advantage of the more generous quota it was afforded after January's OPEC+ meeting. Prices: West Texas Intermediate for April delivery fell $2.03 to settle at $61.50 a barrel. The US crude benchmark rose 3.8% this week. Brent for April settlement, which expires on Friday, declined 75 cents to end the session at $66.13 a barrel. The contract gained 5.1% this week. The more actively traded May contract declined $1.69 to settle at $64.42 a barrel. Soaring bond yields on Thursday were the latest sign that accelerating inflation could trigger a pullback in monetary policy support that has helped fuel gains in risky assets during the pandemic. While global bonds have since stabilised, a less accommodative approach to monetary policy could have ripple effects across commodity markets.
Companies: FO 88E DGOC EME TRIN UOG
Today's news & views, plus announcements from SMDS, PSN, POLY, RIO, BIFF, SONG, HSX, PAGE, RLE, SHED
Companies: PSN RLE RIO
Concept select update
Companies: Jersey Oil & Gas PLC
Today's news & views, plus announcements from RIO, TW, CRDA, TPK, PHP, MGGT, SHI, WHR
Companies: PHP RIO SHI TPK
Arc Minerals* (ARCM LN) – Immediate appointment of Rothschild & Co as financial adviser Chaarat Gold* (CGH LN) – Fatal incident at Kapan in Armenia Kodal Minerals* (KOD LN) – Progress report on West African gold exploration Phoenix Copper* (PXC LN) – Raising £16.45m to develop the Empire mine open pit development project Trans-Siberian Gold (TSG LN) – High grade Vein 25 mining operations resume after accident investigation is completed
Companies: ARCM CGH KOD PXC TSG
Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) has reported Q4 2020 production with 3,365t of copper taking full year output to 13,855 in line with our forecast of 13.9kt and at the top end of guidance. Q4 lead output was 7,442t meaning 29,741t over the full year, up 2% YoY and in line with our forecast of 30kt while zinc output of 5,848t took full year output to 23,815t again in line with our forecast of 24kt and up 2% YoY despite the disruption at Sasa which CAML has overcome rapidly as we expected.
Companies: Central Asia Metals Plc
BlueRock Diamonds (BRD LN) – BlueRock reports $423/ct tenders, raises £1.5m in oversubscribed placing Cornish Metals* (CUSN LN) – Warrants exercised Metal Tiger (MTR LN) – Progress at Kitlanya East Pure Gold Mining (PUR LN) – Further drilling results from Red Lake Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) – Processing circuit optimization points to capital and operating costs savings at MdB Nornickel to Stabilize Water Inflows at Arctic Mine by Next Week
Companies: CUSN PGM BRD SAV MTR
