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  • 18 Oct 19
Sells small parcel of Montney land for $45 mm

 Painted Pony announced that it has entered into an agreement to sell a 75% working interest in 11,280 gross acres (8,460 net), within the company’s NE BC Montney portfolio, for $45 mm in cash.  Management has intimated that this transaction has no associated production or PDP reserve value, and thus the company has opted to make no changes to its formal 2019 guidance at this time.  Playing its cards close to its chest, the company did not unveil any details as to which block of land this represents, though it’s expected that more information will be revealed upon close of the transaction; currently slated for October 31, 2019.  Proceeds from this transaction will be earmarked for debt repayment, which would see the company’s net debt position improve markedly, with our estimated total debt balance of $373 mm exiting 3Q19, poised for a 12% reduction upon successful close. Further, its expected 2019e D/CF (trailing) will fall from 4.6x to ~4.0x.

Companies: PAINTED PONY PETROLEUM
  • 18 Oct 19
Sells small parcel of Montney land for $45 mm

 Painted Pony announced that it has entered into an agreement to sell a 75% working interest in 11,280 gross acres (8,460 net), within the company’s NE BC Montney portfolio, for $45 mm in cash.  Management has intimated that this transaction has no associated production or PDP reserve value, and thus the company has opted to make no changes to its formal 2019 guidance at this time.  Playing its cards close to its chest, the company did not unveil any details as to which block of land this represents, though it’s expected that more information will be revealed upon close of the transaction; currently slated for October 31, 2019.  Proceeds from this transaction will be earmarked for debt repayment, which would see the company’s net debt position improve markedly, with our estimated total debt balance of $373 mm exiting 3Q19, poised for a 12% reduction upon successful close. Further, its expected 2019e D/CF (trailing) will fall from 4.6x to ~4.0x.

Companies: PAINTED PONY PETROLEUM
  • 01 Aug 19
2Q19 results disappoint, 2019 guidance heading lower

Painted Pony reported 2Q19 results that were well behind consensus expectations on both a production and AFFO basis. Volumes of 48,978 boe/d trailed “street” estimates by 4% while AFFO of $9.1 mm, or $0.06/sh, lagged consensus at $13.3 mm, or $0.08/sh. With more shut-ins and commodity price volatility ahead, Painted Pony is reducing its 2019 guidance to 49,000-51,000 boe/d on spending of $80-$95 mm. For scale, prior guidance was 54,000-56,000 boe/d on capex of $95-$110 mm. July volumes were 52,350 boe/d. Management is in discussions with large industrial customers for the delivery of natural gas, which could lead to improved physical and financial diversification of its realized gas pricing. The company is also contemplating asset dispositions (both core and non-core) which could help improve a severely challenged leverage position. Mr. Rick Kessy, COO, is leaving the company and will be replaced by incoming VP Operations and Development, Mr. Mike Backus.

Companies: PAINTED PONY PETROLEUM
  • 01 Aug 19
2Q19 results disappoint, 2019 guidance heading lower

Painted Pony reported 2Q19 results that were well behind consensus expectations on both a production and AFFO basis. Volumes of 48,978 boe/d trailed “street” estimates by 4% while AFFO of $9.1 mm, or $0.06/sh, lagged consensus at $13.3 mm, or $0.08/sh. With more shut-ins and commodity price volatility ahead, Painted Pony is reducing its 2019 guidance to 49,000-51,000 boe/d on spending of $80-$95 mm. For scale, prior guidance was 54,000-56,000 boe/d on capex of $95-$110 mm. July volumes were 52,350 boe/d. Management is in discussions with large industrial customers for the delivery of natural gas, which could lead to improved physical and financial diversification of its realized gas pricing. The company is also contemplating asset dispositions (both core and non-core) which could help improve a severely challenged leverage position. Mr. Rick Kessy, COO, is leaving the company and will be replaced by incoming VP Operations and Development, Mr. Mike Backus.

Companies: PAINTED PONY PETROLEUM
  • 04 May 18
Announces solid 1Q18 results; Revised guidance to retain financial flexibility

Painted Pony’s 1Q18 production of 60,703 boe/d matched our forecast, while cash flow of $46.4 mm, or $0.29 per share, was slightly higher than GMP FE and consensus estimates. In keeping with the recent theme of spending within cash flow, the company has reduced its 2018e capital program from $185 mm and 61,000-63,000 boe/d, to $145-$165 mm and 58,000-60,000 boe/d. The midpoint of the revised guidance range would imply a 16% decrease in capital, though volumes only roll back by 5%. The company’s bank line was reduced $50 mm, to $400 mm, but is now more flexible with all financial covenant requirements removed. Drawings on this LOC at the end of 1Q18 totalled $164 mm.

Companies: PAINTED PONY PETROLEUM
  • 04 May 18
Announces solid 1Q18 results; Revised guidance to retain financial flexibility

Painted Pony’s 1Q18 production of 60,703 boe/d matched our forecast, while cash flow of $46.4 mm, or $0.29 per share, was slightly higher than GMP FE and consensus estimates. In keeping with the recent theme of spending within cash flow, the company has reduced its 2018e capital program from $185 mm and 61,000-63,000 boe/d, to $145-$165 mm and 58,000-60,000 boe/d. The midpoint of the revised guidance range would imply a 16% decrease in capital, though volumes only roll back by 5%. The company’s bank line was reduced $50 mm, to $400 mm, but is now more flexible with all financial covenant requirements removed. Drawings on this LOC at the end of 1Q18 totalled $164 mm.

Companies: PAINTED PONY PETROLEUM
  • 18 Apr 18
Announces successful results at new Montney discovery at Beg

Painted Pony’s first well drilled into its 36-section Montney block at Beg was tested for 6.6 days and finished with a 24-hour flow rate of 1,900 boe/d, including 9.5 mmcf/d of natural gas and an estimated 340 bbl/d liquids (60% condensate). Given this result, combined with offsetting competitor activity, management believes this entire block is prospective for Montney development. Future plans for this area remain under consideration, but could include: 1) further development which would require a 15-20 km long pipeline to connect to the AltaGas Townsend facility, or 2) the outright sale of this block to pay down debt and focus on its core Montney holdings.

Companies: PAINTED PONY PETROLEUM
  • 18 Apr 18
Announces successful results at new Montney discovery at Beg

Painted Pony’s first well drilled into its 36-section Montney block at Beg was tested for 6.6 days and finished with a 24-hour flow rate of 1,900 boe/d, including 9.5 mmcf/d of natural gas and an estimated 340 bbl/d liquids (60% condensate). Given this result, combined with offsetting competitor activity, management believes this entire block is prospective for Montney development. Future plans for this area remain under consideration, but could include: 1) further development which would require a 15-20 km long pipeline to connect to the AltaGas Townsend facility, or 2) the outright sale of this block to pay down debt and focus on its core Montney holdings.

Companies: PAINTED PONY PETROLEUM
  • 15 Dec 17
Follows peers with cash flow bound 2018 capital program

In line with many within its peer group, Painted Pony has announced a 2018 capital program bound within cash flow. The 2018e program, which currently contemplates spending $185 mm to drill and complete 29.0 and 31.0 net wells, respectively, is expected to generate volumes of 61,000 – 63,000 boe/d. Captured within the substantial production growth noted above, is an increased liquids weighting. The company forecasts a 47% YoY increase in liquids production, 50% of which will be high yield condensate. With stubbornly low western Canadian natural gas prices persisting in 4Q17e, the company voluntarily shut-in ~9,000 boe/d. As such, 4Q17e volume targets have drifted downwards to between 51,000 – 53,000 boe/d, falling short of GMP FE’s former view of ~55,000 boe/d.

Companies: PAINTED PONY PETROLEUM
  • 15 Dec 17
Follows peers with cash flow bound 2018 capital program

In line with many within its peer group, Painted Pony has announced a 2018 capital program bound within cash flow. The 2018e program, which currently contemplates spending $185 mm to drill and complete 29.0 and 31.0 net wells, respectively, is expected to generate volumes of 61,000 – 63,000 boe/d. Captured within the substantial production growth noted above, is an increased liquids weighting. The company forecasts a 47% YoY increase in liquids production, 50% of which will be high yield condensate. With stubbornly low western Canadian natural gas prices persisting in 4Q17e, the company voluntarily shut-in ~9,000 boe/d. As such, 4Q17e volume targets have drifted downwards to between 51,000 – 53,000 boe/d, falling short of GMP FE’s former view of ~55,000 boe/d.

Companies: PAINTED PONY PETROLEUM
  • 19 Sep 16
PAINTED PONY REACHES 30,000 BOE/D, TOWNSEND RAMP UP ON SCHEDULE

Impact: Slightly positive. While there will be no changes to our formal estimates as a result of this update, the underlying risk of the Company growing from 16,600 boe/d in 2Q16 to 40,000 boe/d by the end of the year is significantly reduced with confirmation of corporate volumes at 30,000 boe/d over the past 5 days.

Companies: PAINTED PONY PETROLEUM
  • 19 Sep 16
PAINTED PONY REACHES 30,000 BOE/D, TOWNSEND RAMP UP ON SCHEDULE

Impact: Slightly positive. While there will be no changes to our formal estimates as a result of this update, the underlying risk of the Company growing from 16,600 boe/d in 2Q16 to 40,000 boe/d by the end of the year is significantly reduced with confirmation of corporate volumes at 30,000 boe/d over the past 5 days.

Companies: PAINTED PONY PETROLEUM
  • 12 Aug 16
2Q16 Results In Line, Incremental Capital Formally Added to 2H16e

Painted Pony reported 2Q16 production and cash flow that overlaid our estimates. As expected, the Company has formally increased its 2016 capital spending guidance to $199 mm from $179 mm previously, as a result of early commissioning of the AltaGas Townsend facility, which will naturally necessitate more wells to achieve the unchanged 40,000 boe/d 2016e exit marker. Current volumes through the Townsend facility are tracking the new ramp-up schedule while total corporate volume guidance of 23,000 boe/d in 3Q16e appears to be running hotter than our prior forecast. Based on reduced well costs reverberating through our RENAV methodology, we have increased our target price to $13.00/share.

Companies: PAINTED PONY PETROLEUM
  • 12 Aug 16
2Q16 Results In Line, Incremental Capital Formally Added to 2H16e

Painted Pony reported 2Q16 production and cash flow that overlaid our estimates. As expected, the Company has formally increased its 2016 capital spending guidance to $199 mm from $179 mm previously, as a result of early commissioning of the AltaGas Townsend facility, which will naturally necessitate more wells to achieve the unchanged 40,000 boe/d 2016e exit marker. Current volumes through the Townsend facility are tracking the new ramp-up schedule while total corporate volume guidance of 23,000 boe/d in 3Q16e appears to be running hotter than our prior forecast. Based on reduced well costs reverberating through our RENAV methodology, we have increased our target price to $13.00/share.

Companies: PAINTED PONY PETROLEUM
  • 10 Aug 16
2Q16 RESULTS INLINE, INCREMENTAL CAPITAL FORMALLY ADDED TO 2H16E

Impact: Positive, while cash flow and production were in line for the quarter, it appears current production is putting the Company on track to beat our prior 3Q16e forecast.

Companies: PAINTED PONY PETROLEUM
  • 10 Aug 16
2Q16 RESULTS INLINE, INCREMENTAL CAPITAL FORMALLY ADDED TO 2H16E

Impact: Positive, while cash flow and production were in line for the quarter, it appears current production is putting the Company on track to beat our prior 3Q16e forecast.

Companies: PAINTED PONY PETROLEUM
  • 28 Jul 16
Executes NE BC Montney Asset Exchange

Painted Pony announced that it has entered into an asset exchange agreement with a large industry partner consistent with Progress-Petronas. The exchange encompasses a mutual 15.4 net sections (9,856 net acres), primarily at Daiber, wells and a working interest in a facility owned and operated by Progress-Petronas. The deal will net Painted Pony an additional 5.4 mmcfe/d which will have to be tied-in to the Company’s infrastructure and will, most importantly, bestow 100% WI in the land and wells acquired in the swap. We have made no changes to our estimates in light of the deal and as such continue to offer an Outperform ranking and 12-month target price of $12.50 per share, recently revised in our Facts dated July 20, 2016, concurrent with the Company’s announcement of an early start-up of the 198 mmcf/d Townsend facility

Companies: PAINTED PONY PETROLEUM
  • 28 Jul 16
Executes NE BC Montney Asset Exchange

Painted Pony announced that it has entered into an asset exchange agreement with a large industry partner consistent with Progress-Petronas. The exchange encompasses a mutual 15.4 net sections (9,856 net acres), primarily at Daiber, wells and a working interest in a facility owned and operated by Progress-Petronas. The deal will net Painted Pony an additional 5.4 mmcfe/d which will have to be tied-in to the Company’s infrastructure and will, most importantly, bestow 100% WI in the land and wells acquired in the swap. We have made no changes to our estimates in light of the deal and as such continue to offer an Outperform ranking and 12-month target price of $12.50 per share, recently revised in our Facts dated July 20, 2016, concurrent with the Company’s announcement of an early start-up of the 198 mmcf/d Townsend facility

Companies: PAINTED PONY PETROLEUM
  • 26 Jul 16
2Q16e Quarterly Preview

Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly reversed into summer, market likely to ignore financials for natural gas producers and look ahead to winter and formalization of sell-side 2018e estimates in coming months. Spot AECO natural gas prices recently crested C$2.60/mcf, and with a reasonable alignment of previously distressed NE BC Stn2 differentials, augmented by a withdrawal expected next week, view the market psyche as constructive and looking ahead, with the analogy that this market is shaping up to mirror 2012 still holding. That said, with crude oil poised to retest support levels, combined with strong stock price performance broadly observed YTD, we would characterize sentiment as slightly pessimistic in the near-term which could reduce or unwind momentum-based investment strategies that have worked thus far in 2016.

Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PWT PSK VII TOU VET WCP BNE CJ CR DEE JOY KEL LTS NVA PPY PMT PNE RRX RMP SRX SGY TOG TET ATU CKE GXE IKM LXE MQL PRQ SPE SKX TVE TVL YO ZAR

  • 26 Jul 16
2Q16e Quarterly Preview

Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly reversed into summer, market likely to ignore financials for natural gas producers and look ahead to winter and formalization of sell-side 2018e estimates in coming months. Spot AECO natural gas prices recently crested C$2.60/mcf, and with a reasonable alignment of previously distressed NE BC Stn2 differentials, augmented by a withdrawal expected next week, view the market psyche as constructive and looking ahead, with the analogy that this market is shaping up to mirror 2012 still holding. That said, with crude oil poised to retest support levels, combined with strong stock price performance broadly observed YTD, we would characterize sentiment as slightly pessimistic in the near-term which could reduce or unwind momentum-based investment strategies that have worked thus far in 2016.

Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PWT PSK VII TOU VET WCP BNE CJ CR DEE JOY KEL LTS NVA PPY PMT PNE RRX RMP SRX SGY TOG TET ATU CKE GXE IKM LXE MQL PRQ SPE SKX TVE TVL YO ZAR

  • 20 Jul 16
Announces First Sales from Townsend Facility

Painted Pony announced first gas sales out of the Townsend facility with targeted ramp up to 50 mmcf/d in August, 100 mmcf/d in September, and 150 mmcf/d in October. Increased volumes forecasts paired with lower anticipated capital lease fees drives a 12% and 6% increase to our cash flow estimates in 2016e and 2017e respectively. Outperform recommendation is reconfirmed on an increased target price of $12.50 per share (previously $10.50 per share).

Companies: PAINTED PONY PETROLEUM
  • 20 Jul 16
Announces First Sales from Townsend Facility

Painted Pony announced first gas sales out of the Townsend facility with targeted ramp up to 50 mmcf/d in August, 100 mmcf/d in September, and 150 mmcf/d in October. Increased volumes forecasts paired with lower anticipated capital lease fees drives a 12% and 6% increase to our cash flow estimates in 2016e and 2017e respectively. Outperform recommendation is reconfirmed on an increased target price of $12.50 per share (previously $10.50 per share).

Companies: PAINTED PONY PETROLEUM
  • 19 Jul 16
ANNOUNCES FIRST SALES FROM TOWNSEND FACILITY

Impact: Positive, as early completion of the Townsend facility derisks a major component of the Company's production ramp up. Additionally, lower capital lease fees as a result of an extended amortization and slight efficiencies gained will manifest in higher corporate cash flows moving forward, all else equal.

Companies: PAINTED PONY PETROLEUM
  • 19 Jul 16
ANNOUNCES FIRST SALES FROM TOWNSEND FACILITY

Impact: Positive, as early completion of the Townsend facility derisks a major component of the Company's production ramp up. Additionally, lower capital lease fees as a result of an extended amortization and slight efficiencies gained will manifest in higher corporate cash flows moving forward, all else equal.

Companies: PAINTED PONY PETROLEUM
  • 23 Jun 16
Intermediates, Mid Caps & Small Cap Commodity Price Update

With this publication we highlight forecast revisions associated with our commodity price update (Natural Gas Update; Crude Oil Update), reaffirming a view of commodity price recovery in 2017e. In the interim until then, 2016e Canadian oil price realizations are up ~11% in the synthetic and Edmonton Light streams, with heavy WCS crude up ~20% which is amplified by Canadian oilsands output curtailments. While 2016e Canadian natural gas prices are projected to be ~20% lower, we expect much of this effect to be mitigated by strong hedging positions this year, and remain focused on price recovery next year with very strong increases reflected in both the strip and our revised forecast. Overall, broad valuations are flat to slightly higher coming out of this exercise, with oil/ liquids levered entities observing the highest 2017e CFO uptick. We remain constructive on the space, though the market will need to look past a trough of potentially weak pricing this summer.

Companies: ARX CPG ERF TOU POU CJ PPY SRX LXE

  • 23 Jun 16
Intermediates, Mid Caps & Small Cap Commodity Price Update

With this publication we highlight forecast revisions associated with our commodity price update (Natural Gas Update; Crude Oil Update), reaffirming a view of commodity price recovery in 2017e. In the interim until then, 2016e Canadian oil price realizations are up ~11% in the synthetic and Edmonton Light streams, with heavy WCS crude up ~20% which is amplified by Canadian oilsands output curtailments. While 2016e Canadian natural gas prices are projected to be ~20% lower, we expect much of this effect to be mitigated by strong hedging positions this year, and remain focused on price recovery next year with very strong increases reflected in both the strip and our revised forecast. Overall, broad valuations are flat to slightly higher coming out of this exercise, with oil/ liquids levered entities observing the highest 2017e CFO uptick. We remain constructive on the space, though the market will need to look past a trough of potentially weak pricing this summer.

Companies: ARX CPG ERF TOU POU CJ PPY SRX LXE

  • 12 May 16
Painted Pony’s 1Q16 Results as Expected, Bank Line ReConfirmed at $325 mm

Painted Pony reported 1Q16 production and cash flow that were in line with our estimates.

Companies: PAINTED PONY PETROLEUM
  • 12 May 16
Painted Pony’s 1Q16 Results as Expected, Bank Line ReConfirmed at $325 mm

Painted Pony reported 1Q16 production and cash flow that were in line with our estimates.

Companies: PAINTED PONY PETROLEUM
  • 26 Apr 16
Intermediates, Mid Caps & Small Caps

With this publication we briefly summarize our projections for 1Q16e quarterly results for the Junior E&P (Intermediate, Mid & Small Cap) segments of our coverage universe

Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PSK VII TOU VET WCP BNE CJ CR DEE JOY KEL LTS LRE NVA PPY PMT PNE RRX RMP SRX SGY TOG TET ATU CKE GXE IKM LXE MQL RE SPE SKX TVE TVL YGR YO ZAR

  • 26 Apr 16
Intermediates, Mid Caps & Small Caps

With this publication we briefly summarize our projections for 1Q16e quarterly results for the Junior E&P (Intermediate, Mid & Small Cap) segments of our coverage universe

Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PSK VII TOU VET WCP BNE CJ CR DEE JOY KEL LTS LRE NVA PPY PMT PNE RRX RMP SRX SGY TOG TET ATU CKE GXE IKM LXE MQL RE SPE SKX TVE TVL YGR YO ZAR

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Date Source Announcement
05Apr17 13:42 MKW Painted Pony Announces Closing of $111 Million Equity Financing Including Full Exercise of the Over-Allotment Option
15Mar17 20:55 MKW Painted Pony Announces Strategic Montney Acquisition and $100 Million Equity Financing
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  • 10 Feb 20
WHI First Light: Caspian Sunrise, Watchstone Group & Water Intelligence

Caspian Sunrise (CASP) – Corporate – Operational Update Market Cap £140m Share Price 7.7p Caspian Sunrise announced that the Deep Well A5 sidetrack has flowed for a period of 40 days and management stated it continues to believe that the well is capable of producing at a rate of at least 1,500 b/d. The company is focusing on ensuring flow is maintained by adjusting the wells choke size to maintain a constant reservoir pressure. The company stated it is planning to optimise the well through an acid job later in February and that the operation is expected to take three days. Watchstone Group (WTG) – Corporate – Pre-close trading update and planned capital return to shareholders Market Cap £68.4m Share Price 148.5p Watchstone has this morning released a pre-close update for the year ended 31 December 2019, as well as announcing a planned first tranche return of capital to shareholders by the end of June 2020, subject to approvals. Water Intelligence (WATR) – Corporate – FY trading update ahead of expectations Market Cap £44.2m Share Price 317.5p WATR has published another strong update this morning, demonstrating that the company is able to generate strong double digit growth in revenues while at the same time expanding margins. FY2019E results are reported to be well ahead of the prior year on both the sales and the profit lines (+27% and +36% respectively), while no less than 9% ahead of forecasts. Showing again that the company is able to grow sales and margins at the same time, PBT margins are up >150 basis points, while operating margins in the key Corporate activity are at 13.5% (also +150bp).

Companies: CASP WTG WATR

  • 13 Feb 20
Premier Oil

Schemes approved by debt holders

Companies: Premier Oil
  • 10 Feb 20
Cenkos: Oil & Gas Sector -- Ithaca Energy, BP Plc, Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas, Chrysaor, President Energy, Wentworth Resources, EnQuest, RockRose Energy, Valeura Energy, Echo Energy, TransGlobe Energy, Victoria Oil & Gas, Hurricane Energy, Touchstone Explora

Oil declined for the fifth straight week as the spreading coronavirus clouded the demand outlook and OPEC awaited Russia's decision on whether to cut production. Futures in New York fell 2.4% for the week, posting the longest weekly losing streak since 2018. Chinese refiners are processing 15% less crude than before the outbreak as the infection crimps demand. Meanwhile, Russia hesitated to accept a proposal by OPEC+ to cut output by 600,000 barrels a day. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak promised an answer to the proposal in “days”. In the US, gasoline futures rose to the highest in more than a week after Phillips 66 shut the sole fuel-making unit at its Bayway refinery in New Jersey, the largest on the East Coast. Futures rose 1.7% to settle at $1.5239 per gallon. Majors including Total SA and BP Plc projected a significant hit to global oil demand this year due to the virus, compounding fears of a supply glut plunging the market's structure into a bearish contango. Both state-owned and private refineries in China have scaled back processing by at least 2 million barrels a day over the past week, said people with knowledge of operations at the nation's largest complexes. So-called throughput could fall further as demand for aviation and transportation fuels continues to shrink as entire cities remain locked down and travel is restricted, the people said. West Texas Intermediate for March delivery fell 63 cents to settle at $50.32 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent for April delivery lost 46 cents to settle at $54.47 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange putting the premium over WTI at $3.92.

Companies: FOG PVR EME TRIN 88E

  • 10 Feb 20
The Industrial Revelation


Companies: CGS HAYD HTG OXIG RSW RNO SCPA TWD TRI ZTF GHH

  • 11 Feb 20
Buchan Asset Overview – That’s How You Do It!

Jersey supported by Rockflow Resources, petroleum consultants, has estimated that the development of the Buchan field has a potential to recover 58.5 mmb, 81.2 mmb and 99.3 mmb of oil under low, mid and high cases respectively. We met recently with Jersey and Rockflow to better understand the Buchan field and its forward looking production potential. We have gained confidence in the company’s resource estimates and we have outlined our reasons for that in this note. We have also provided our first success case estimate of the value of the field, which is $692M or $8.52/b based on the assumptions detailed in this note and the mid-case resource estimate. Given the early stage nature of the development project (project scoping phase, unfunded and no field development plan approval from the OGA) we believe a reasonable fair value for the company would include circa 10% of our success case valuation estimate, which adjusting for balance sheet items, amounts to 268p/sh.

Companies: Jersey Oil And Gas
  • 11 Feb 20
WHI First Light: Solid State, Walker Greenbank, Serinus Energy and Jersey Oil & Gas

Solid State (SOLI) – Corporate – Powering ahead from solid foundations Market Cap £53.7m Share Price 633p Solid State is a manufacturer of computing, power and communications products, and value added distributor of electronic components. This morning we have published a 24pp note setting out our investment thesis following a strong period for the group. Interim results in December demonstrated the strength of progress being delivered, putting the group well on track to meet our FY 2020E expectations and moving back into a net cash position for the first time since the acquisition of Pacer in 2018. Walker Greenbank (WGB) – Corporate – Full year trading update in line; strategic progress emerging Market Cap £50.4m Share Price 71p Walker Greenbank is a higher-end interior furnishings business with well-established global brand names and manufacturing facilities in the UK. The Group has this morning released a full year trading update, confirming that results for the year to 31 January 2020 will be in line with expectations. Against a challenging wider market backdrop, Morris & Co, Clarke & Clarke, core licensing and digital fabric printing have performed strongly, with the year-end net cash position standing at c.£1.0m (ex IFRS 16). Serinus Energy (SENX) – Corporate – Moftinu 1004 Well Successfully Tested at 6.0 mmcf/d Market Cap £24.5m Share Price 10.3p Serinus has announced that the Moftinu 1004 well produced on test at a maximum stable rate of 6.0 mmcf/d (1,000 boe/d) with no progressive pressure decrease throughout the test, which was undertaken with a 40/64” choke. Jersey Oil & Gas (JOG) – Corporate – Buchan Note Published by WHI Market Cap £21.8m Share Price 103p WHI view: Jersey supported by Rockflow Resources, petroleum consultants, has estimated that the development of the Buchan field has a potential to recover 58.5 mmb, 81.2 mmb and 99.3 mmb of oil under low, mid and high cases respectively. We met recently with Jersey and Rockflow to better understand the Buchan field and its forward looking production potential. We have gained confidence in the company's resource estimates and we have outlined our reasons for that in a note published today.

Companies: SENX WGB JOG SOLI

  • 12 Feb 20
Cenkos: 88 Energy Ltd -- Charlie-1 On Schedule

Potentially the biggest onshore well of 2020, the Charlie-1 appraisal well is on track to spud in late February. The well will intersect seven stacked intervals, targeting gross mean prospective resources of 1.6bnbbls (480mmbbls net to 88 Energy). All the permits required to drill the Charlie-1 well have been approved, with mobilisation of the Nordic Rig#3 due to begin in approximately 10 days. We believe the drilling of the Charlie-1 well will be a defining moment for 88 Energy as it looks to prove the conventional potential of the Project Icewine acreage. We look forward to one of the most anticipated onshore wells of 2020, targeting what we believe is the largest resource of any onshore well over the next 12 months.

Companies: 88 Energy
  • 06 Feb 20
Hurricane Energy

Operational update – work programme changes

Companies: Hurricane Energy
  • 14 Feb 20
Hydrodec*

2019 year-end trading update

Companies: Hydrodec Group
  • 03 Feb 20
Hardman & Co Monthly: February 2020

We recently published a paper, Share ownership: For the many, not the few, based on a statistical survey of share ownership, produced jointly with Argus Vickers, the share analysis service. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has now issued its equivalent survey. This paper compares its results with ours. Although there are, inevitably, differences in the detail, the two surveys reach the same conclusions.

Companies: AVO AGY ARBB CLIG DNL FLTA GDR MCL NSF PCA PIN PXC PHP RECI RMDL STX SCE TON VTA

  • 02 Sep 19
LIBERUM: Sylvania Platinum* - Results beat, Grasvally disposal but light on dividend

Sylvania has reported FY19 results (June Y/E) of $6.37/sh versus expectations of $5.95/sh due to a lighter tax expense than assumed. They have entered into a binding agreement to sell Grasvally for R115m ($7.6m at current FX), which should be settled in the next eight months.

Companies: Sylvania Platinum
  • 30 Jan 20
Q4: buyback slows down

While the earnings were slightly below consensus, the focal point of the release is on the pace of the buyback programme. After sending a cautious statement last quarter, management has reduced the next tranche of the buyback to $1bn (vs. $2.5-2.75bn in the past). Pointing to a synchronised downturn (lower oil, gas prices as well as lower refining and chemical margins) which is below expectations, management is giving the priority to its balance sheet.

Companies: Royal Dutch Shell
  • 06 Feb 20
Hurricane Energy - Revised work programme at GWA and GLA

Hurricane Energy has announced an operational update with a programme focused on maximising the Aoka Mizu FPSO’s oil throughput capacity. In the Greater Warwick Area (GWA), partners concluded that it will not be possible to tie back the Lincoln Crestal Well to the FPSO in 2020. However, they are seeking regulatory consent to delay the abandonment of the Lincoln Crestal Well to obtain interference data during well testing in 2020 from one or more sub-vertical wells that are planned to be drilled and tested, to determine the maximum vertical extent of the Lincoln field. In the Greater Lancaster Area (GLA), an accelerated work programme is planned with an additional production well in 2020, in addition to drilling one or more sub-vertical wells in 2021 to determine the maximum extent of the Lancaster field. If successful, and subject to regulatory consents, the well would be tied back to the FPSO in 2021, with provisional first oil in Q122.

Companies: Hurricane Energy
  • 12 Feb 20
Lamprell

New digital partnership with Akselos

Companies: Lamprell
  • 18 Jul 18
Quarterly Research Outlook

In Q2, UK equities regained some of their poise after the draw down in Q1, although uncertainty around Brexit continued to grab the headlines. On the back of this, investor concern about the UK economy has been understandable in recent months given a number of negative data points. However, we see reasons for optimism for UK Plc with wage growth supporting an improving outlook for the consumer and business investment holding up. That said, continuing UK political disruption clearly remains a risk going forward.

Companies: AMER EMR HMI JOG PDG ABBY AMS AVON BLVN PIER CGS CALL CSRT TIDE DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPM FPO GTLY GENL INCE GEEC HDY HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG LAM MACF MKLW NAH OXIG PCA APP CAKE PDG RBW REDD RSW RNO RKH ROR SUS SCPA SHG KCT TRAK TRI VTC ZTF