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  • 18 Oct 19
Sells small parcel of Montney land for $45 mm

 Painted Pony announced that it has entered into an agreement to sell a 75% working interest in 11,280 gross acres (8,460 net), within the company’s NE BC Montney portfolio, for $45 mm in cash.  Management has intimated that this transaction has no associated production or PDP reserve value, and thus the company has opted to make no changes to its formal 2019 guidance at this time.  Playing its cards close to its chest, the company did not unveil any details as to which block of land this represents, though it’s expected that more information will be revealed upon close of the transaction; currently slated for October 31, 2019.  Proceeds from this transaction will be earmarked for debt repayment, which would see the company’s net debt position improve markedly, with our estimated total debt balance of $373 mm exiting 3Q19, poised for a 12% reduction upon successful close. Further, its expected 2019e D/CF (trailing) will fall from 4.6x to ~4.0x.

Companies: PAINTED PONY PETROLEUM
  • 01 Aug 19
2Q19 results disappoint, 2019 guidance heading lower

Painted Pony reported 2Q19 results that were well behind consensus expectations on both a production and AFFO basis. Volumes of 48,978 boe/d trailed “street” estimates by 4% while AFFO of $9.1 mm, or $0.06/sh, lagged consensus at $13.3 mm, or $0.08/sh. With more shut-ins and commodity price volatility ahead, Painted Pony is reducing its 2019 guidance to 49,000-51,000 boe/d on spending of $80-$95 mm. For scale, prior guidance was 54,000-56,000 boe/d on capex of $95-$110 mm. July volumes were 52,350 boe/d. Management is in discussions with large industrial customers for the delivery of natural gas, which could lead to improved physical and financial diversification of its realized gas pricing. The company is also contemplating asset dispositions (both core and non-core) which could help improve a severely challenged leverage position. Mr. Rick Kessy, COO, is leaving the company and will be replaced by incoming VP Operations and Development, Mr. Mike Backus.

Companies: PAINTED PONY PETROLEUM
  • 04 May 18
Announces solid 1Q18 results; Revised guidance to retain financial flexibility

Painted Pony’s 1Q18 production of 60,703 boe/d matched our forecast, while cash flow of $46.4 mm, or $0.29 per share, was slightly higher than GMP FE and consensus estimates. In keeping with the recent theme of spending within cash flow, the company has reduced its 2018e capital program from $185 mm and 61,000-63,000 boe/d, to $145-$165 mm and 58,000-60,000 boe/d. The midpoint of the revised guidance range would imply a 16% decrease in capital, though volumes only roll back by 5%. The company’s bank line was reduced $50 mm, to $400 mm, but is now more flexible with all financial covenant requirements removed. Drawings on this LOC at the end of 1Q18 totalled $164 mm.

Companies: PAINTED PONY PETROLEUM
  • 18 Apr 18
Announces successful results at new Montney discovery at Beg

Painted Pony’s first well drilled into its 36-section Montney block at Beg was tested for 6.6 days and finished with a 24-hour flow rate of 1,900 boe/d, including 9.5 mmcf/d of natural gas and an estimated 340 bbl/d liquids (60% condensate). Given this result, combined with offsetting competitor activity, management believes this entire block is prospective for Montney development. Future plans for this area remain under consideration, but could include: 1) further development which would require a 15-20 km long pipeline to connect to the AltaGas Townsend facility, or 2) the outright sale of this block to pay down debt and focus on its core Montney holdings.

Companies: PAINTED PONY PETROLEUM
  • 15 Dec 17
Follows peers with cash flow bound 2018 capital program

In line with many within its peer group, Painted Pony has announced a 2018 capital program bound within cash flow. The 2018e program, which currently contemplates spending $185 mm to drill and complete 29.0 and 31.0 net wells, respectively, is expected to generate volumes of 61,000 – 63,000 boe/d. Captured within the substantial production growth noted above, is an increased liquids weighting. The company forecasts a 47% YoY increase in liquids production, 50% of which will be high yield condensate. With stubbornly low western Canadian natural gas prices persisting in 4Q17e, the company voluntarily shut-in ~9,000 boe/d. As such, 4Q17e volume targets have drifted downwards to between 51,000 – 53,000 boe/d, falling short of GMP FE’s former view of ~55,000 boe/d.

Companies: PAINTED PONY PETROLEUM
  • 19 Sep 16
PAINTED PONY REACHES 30,000 BOE/D, TOWNSEND RAMP UP ON SCHEDULE

Impact: Slightly positive. While there will be no changes to our formal estimates as a result of this update, the underlying risk of the Company growing from 16,600 boe/d in 2Q16 to 40,000 boe/d by the end of the year is significantly reduced with confirmation of corporate volumes at 30,000 boe/d over the past 5 days.

Companies: PAINTED PONY PETROLEUM
  • 12 Aug 16
2Q16 Results In Line, Incremental Capital Formally Added to 2H16e

Painted Pony reported 2Q16 production and cash flow that overlaid our estimates. As expected, the Company has formally increased its 2016 capital spending guidance to $199 mm from $179 mm previously, as a result of early commissioning of the AltaGas Townsend facility, which will naturally necessitate more wells to achieve the unchanged 40,000 boe/d 2016e exit marker. Current volumes through the Townsend facility are tracking the new ramp-up schedule while total corporate volume guidance of 23,000 boe/d in 3Q16e appears to be running hotter than our prior forecast. Based on reduced well costs reverberating through our RENAV methodology, we have increased our target price to $13.00/share.

Companies: PAINTED PONY PETROLEUM
  • 10 Aug 16
2Q16 RESULTS INLINE, INCREMENTAL CAPITAL FORMALLY ADDED TO 2H16E

Impact: Positive, while cash flow and production were in line for the quarter, it appears current production is putting the Company on track to beat our prior 3Q16e forecast.

Companies: PAINTED PONY PETROLEUM
  • 28 Jul 16
Executes NE BC Montney Asset Exchange

Painted Pony announced that it has entered into an asset exchange agreement with a large industry partner consistent with Progress-Petronas. The exchange encompasses a mutual 15.4 net sections (9,856 net acres), primarily at Daiber, wells and a working interest in a facility owned and operated by Progress-Petronas. The deal will net Painted Pony an additional 5.4 mmcfe/d which will have to be tied-in to the Company’s infrastructure and will, most importantly, bestow 100% WI in the land and wells acquired in the swap. We have made no changes to our estimates in light of the deal and as such continue to offer an Outperform ranking and 12-month target price of $12.50 per share, recently revised in our Facts dated July 20, 2016, concurrent with the Company’s announcement of an early start-up of the 198 mmcf/d Townsend facility

Companies: PAINTED PONY PETROLEUM
  • 26 Jul 16
2Q16e Quarterly Preview

Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly reversed into summer, market likely to ignore financials for natural gas producers and look ahead to winter and formalization of sell-side 2018e estimates in coming months. Spot AECO natural gas prices recently crested C$2.60/mcf, and with a reasonable alignment of previously distressed NE BC Stn2 differentials, augmented by a withdrawal expected next week, view the market psyche as constructive and looking ahead, with the analogy that this market is shaping up to mirror 2012 still holding. That said, with crude oil poised to retest support levels, combined with strong stock price performance broadly observed YTD, we would characterize sentiment as slightly pessimistic in the near-term which could reduce or unwind momentum-based investment strategies that have worked thus far in 2016.

Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PWT PSK VII TOU VET WCP BNE CJ CR DEE JOY KEL LTS NVA PPY PMT PNE RRX RMP SRX SGY TOG TET ATU CKE GXE IKM LXE MQL PRQ SPE SKX TVE TVL YO ZAR

  • 20 Jul 16
Announces First Sales from Townsend Facility

Painted Pony announced first gas sales out of the Townsend facility with targeted ramp up to 50 mmcf/d in August, 100 mmcf/d in September, and 150 mmcf/d in October. Increased volumes forecasts paired with lower anticipated capital lease fees drives a 12% and 6% increase to our cash flow estimates in 2016e and 2017e respectively. Outperform recommendation is reconfirmed on an increased target price of $12.50 per share (previously $10.50 per share).

Companies: PAINTED PONY PETROLEUM
  • 19 Jul 16
ANNOUNCES FIRST SALES FROM TOWNSEND FACILITY

Impact: Positive, as early completion of the Townsend facility derisks a major component of the Company's production ramp up. Additionally, lower capital lease fees as a result of an extended amortization and slight efficiencies gained will manifest in higher corporate cash flows moving forward, all else equal.

Companies: PAINTED PONY PETROLEUM
  • 23 Jun 16
Intermediates, Mid Caps & Small Cap Commodity Price Update

With this publication we highlight forecast revisions associated with our commodity price update (Natural Gas Update; Crude Oil Update), reaffirming a view of commodity price recovery in 2017e. In the interim until then, 2016e Canadian oil price realizations are up ~11% in the synthetic and Edmonton Light streams, with heavy WCS crude up ~20% which is amplified by Canadian oilsands output curtailments. While 2016e Canadian natural gas prices are projected to be ~20% lower, we expect much of this effect to be mitigated by strong hedging positions this year, and remain focused on price recovery next year with very strong increases reflected in both the strip and our revised forecast. Overall, broad valuations are flat to slightly higher coming out of this exercise, with oil/ liquids levered entities observing the highest 2017e CFO uptick. We remain constructive on the space, though the market will need to look past a trough of potentially weak pricing this summer.

Companies: ARX CPG ERF TOU POU CJ PPY SRX LXE

  • 12 May 16
Painted Pony’s 1Q16 Results as Expected, Bank Line ReConfirmed at $325 mm

Painted Pony reported 1Q16 production and cash flow that were in line with our estimates.

Companies: PAINTED PONY PETROLEUM
  • 26 Apr 16
Intermediates, Mid Caps & Small Caps

With this publication we briefly summarize our projections for 1Q16e quarterly results for the Junior E&P (Intermediate, Mid & Small Cap) segments of our coverage universe

Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PSK VII TOU VET WCP BNE CJ CR DEE JOY KEL LTS LRE NVA PPY PMT PNE RRX RMP SRX SGY TOG TET ATU CKE GXE IKM LXE MQL RE SPE SKX TVE TVL YGR YO ZAR

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Date Source Announcement
05Apr17 13:42 MKW Painted Pony Announces Closing of $111 Million Equity Financing Including Full Exercise of the Over-Allotment Option
15Mar17 20:55 MKW Painted Pony Announces Strategic Montney Acquisition and $100 Million Equity Financing
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  • 25 Mar 20
LIBERUM: Sylvania Platinum* - Best placed miner to weather the storm

Sylvania's share price has fallen 53% since its peaked on the 21st Feb, as the global economy hit the brakes. The short term demand outlook for PGMs is miserable, with supply chains breaking down as both luxury goods and car sales sales collapse.

Companies: Sylvania Platinum
  • 30 Mar 20
Cenkos: Oil & Gas Sector --

Oil declined for a fifth straight week amid a one-two punch from collapsing demand due to the coronavirus crisis and ballooning supply from producers vying for market share. Futures in New York slumped 4.8% on Friday and are poised for the biggest quarterly drop on record as weak demand and an onslaught of supply roil markets. Refineries across the globe are curbing consumption as fuel use declines with people staying home. Meanwhile, major trader Trafigura Group expects as much as 1 billion barrels to be sent into storage tanks. More oil is headed into stockpiles as the Russia-Saudi war for market share that exacerbated crude's crash this month shows no sign of abating. The kingdom held firm on Friday, saying it hasn't had any contacts with Moscow about output cuts or on enlarging the OPEC+ alliance of producers. Russia also doubled down, with Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin saying oil at $25 a barrel is unpleasant, but not a catastrophe for Moscow. US crude has tumbled about 65% so far this quarter. The crash has crippled domestic producers who are forced to cut production for the first time in 35 years. The International Energy Agency this week warned that global demand was in “free fall” amid coronavirus lockdowns. Meanwhile, Iraq -- OPEC's second-biggest producer -- will allow national oil companies to boost their output and export without imposing any ceiling. Algeria has asked for an emergency OPEC board meeting to discuss the cuts. It comes as one of the world's largest supertanker owners said that ships are being filled with crude at a record pace, as land storage rapidly diminishes. Prices:  West Texas Intermediate fell $1.09 to settle at $21.51 a barrel in New York on Friday. Prices dropped 4.1% this week.  Brent crude lost $1.41 to settle at $24.93 a barrel.  Swaps markets show that physical crude is selling several dollars below benchmark prices. The signs of storage starting to fill are growing, too. Inland tanks for heating oil in Germany are now full, while Pakistan banned oil imports on Thursday because its stockpiles are now sufficiently built up. Rigzone.

Companies: FOG PVR 88E DGOC EME POS TRIN UOG

  • 02 Apr 20
Cenkos: Shearwater Group Plc -- Resilient cyber performance

Shearwater sells resilience and today's trading update shows us how resilient demand has been for its products and services. The Group has swung to EBITDA profitability and cash flow is well ahead of expectations. The macro themes of cyber security and remote working are supportive of robust demand levels going forward. We are maintaining our forecasts. Buy.

Companies: Shearwater Group
  • 30 Mar 20
WHI Equity Research: i3 Energy (I3E)

Strategic Production Acquisition and TSX Listing i3 Energy announced today that is has entered an option agreement to acquire all of the outstanding shares of TSX listed Toscana Energy Income Corporation. Toscana produced on average 1,065 boe/d in 2019 and has 2P reserves of 4.65 mmboe of which 55% consists of oil (and natural gas liquids) and 45% consists of natural gas. Toscana's low-decline production is located in Western Canada. Toscana's lands include a very large holding over one of Western Canada's leading new oil plays targeting the Clearwater formation. i3 Energy has acquired the entirety of Toscana's $C28.2M of senior and junior secured debt for $C3.4M representing a price of $C0.12 per dollar of outstanding debt. i3 is now Toscana's secured lender. The debt purchase was funded with i3 Energy's existing cash resources. i3 Energy has agreed to issue up to 4,399,224 of its shares, representing circa 4% of i3 Energy's existing share capital to acquire the entirety of Toscana's shares, representing a market value of circa $C0.55M based on the market values of 27 March 2020. We believe the announcement represents a positive and transformational change for i3 Energy.

Companies: I3 Energy
  • 01 Apr 20
WHI First Light: Caledonia Mining (CMCL) & Touchstar (TST)

Caledonia today announces that it has taken the prudent decision to defer its approval for the payment of the second quarterly dividend (7.5c/sh - $0.9m - 7% of declared Caledonia cash). The Blanket mine in Zimbabwe remains in operation (at a slightly reduced capacity to secure Covid-19 social distancing) and the mine site remains well-stocked with supplies, so despite the current difficulties getting supplies from South Africa production at the mine can continue for some time to come; 2-3 months in our opinion, if the supply chain from South Africa ceased altogether. Touchstar is a supplier of mobile data computing solutions and managed services to a variety of industrial sectors. This morning, the group has released an update in light of COVID-19. The Board reports that it has taken swift action to re-engineer processes to adhere to government guidelines, whilst maintaining client service levels. Q1 2020 trading is reported to have been ‘broadly' in line, with revenue growth of 40% from continuing operations and outstanding orders to ship to customers in the coming months. Q1 was cash neutral, which follows on from the RNS on 5 February, of a net cash position of £849k as at 31 December 2019.

Companies: Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc Com Shs Npv Touchstar

  • 02 Apr 20
LIBERUM: ilika* - Reinstating coverage after growth placing

We are reinstating coverage with a Buy rating and price target of 50p following the recent £15m share placing to fund production scale-up for micro-batteries. Our TP reflects a DCF of the micro-battery business which has sufficient customer interest to achieve over £12m annual sales by FY23 and £25m later this decade we believe, generating EBITDA of £1.7m and £7m respectively.

Companies: Ilika
  • 02 Mar 20
THE MONTHLY March 2020

Much of the UK’s privatisation programme took place between the early 1980s and the mid-1990s: subsequent sales have been few. Undoubtedly, privatisation attracted many private investors to the market, many for the first time.

Companies: AVO AGY ARBB ARIX BUR CLIG DNL FLTA GDR NSF PCA PIN PXC PHP RE/ RECI RMDL STX SCE SIXH TRX SHED VTA

  • 30 Mar 20
WHI First Light: Caledonia Mining (CMCL)

Caledonia today provides an update on its Blanket mine in Zimbabwe in the light of the full lockdown other than “for essential services” from today as ordered by President Mnangagwa. The mine is still operating as the authorities will grant exemptions for businesses which demonstrate they can operate in a manner that contributes to the management of the spread of Covid-19 infections. Caledonia has applied for this exemption.

Companies: Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc Com Shs Npv
  • 30 Mar 20
Quadrise Fuels International - Business development intensifying

Quadrise’s business development activity has intensified in the last nine months, with progress on opportunities in Morocco, South America, Saudi Arabia (KSA) and the marine sector. COVID-19 will potentially extend the length of time taken to complete trials. However, management notes that the current low oil prices are not likely to have a material impact on interest in using its innovative MSAR fuel as a heavy fuel oil substitute.

Companies: Quadrise Fuels International
  • 30 Mar 20
Strategic financing from IIG

Ironveld has signed a range of conditional financing agreements with Inclusive Investment Group (IIG) that mark a step change in its ability to advance its iron, vanadium and titanium project in the prolific Bushveld Complex of South Africa. The agreements will see IIG provide Ironveld with $3.2m in both debt and equity with IIG to take a stake of up to 46.8% in the company subject to certain shareholder approvals. This locks IIG in as a meaningful strategic partner and should allow Ironveld to progress Phase I of its project while it seeks the broader financing required to bring it in to development

Companies: Ironveld
  • 02 Apr 20
Genel Energy

October 2019 Tawke and Taq Taq payments received

Companies: Genel Energy
  • 16 Mar 20
Cenkos: Oil & Gas Sector - Diversified Gas & Oil, UK Oil & Gas, Trinity Exploration & Production, Tullow Oil, Cairn Energy, Pharos Energy, Vaalco Energy, Transglobe Energy, Valeura Energy, Touchstone Exploration, Serica Energy, Gran Tierra Energy, EnQuest

Oil posted the biggest weekly plunge since 2008, capping its most dramatic week in recent memory as major producers prepare to drench the market with supply just as the coronavirus crushes demand. But prices jumped following the close, after President Donald Trump said the U.S. would fill the nation's strategic reserve. Losses for the week totalled 23% after the collapse of talks between members of the OPEC+ group triggered the biggest crash in a generation. Instead of reaching a deal to cut output to mitigate the fallout from the virus, producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia embarked on a war for market share and pledged to pump more.

Companies: TGL TXP VLU EGY GTE CNE DGOC ENQ SQZ UKOG TRIN TLW PHAR

  • 27 Mar 20
Cenkos: Diversified Gas & Oil Plc -- In a league of its own

Diversified Gas & Oil is emerging as a new model for the E&P market, balancing low fixed costs with efficient operations to generate consistent cash flows. Since the Company's foundation, DGO's strategy has remained unchanged, delivering stable production, whilst maintaining capital discipline to deliver cash flows and shareholder returns. Efficient operations combined with low fixed costs means DGO can deliver strong margins at low prices - vital in the current environment. The DGO model does not follow that of its capital intensive North American “peers” and nor does it follow that of its international London listed “peers”, putting DGO in a league of its own. With many of the Permian oil producers and Appalachian gas producers cutting back on capex in the current price environment, we see a recovery in the gas prices, with the current oversupply of gas turning into an undersupply as production and stores fall away. We believe the M&A market will provide a great opportunity for DGO over the next 12-24 months, with inevitably some E&P's not being able to survive the current low price environment. We update our model incorporating the extension of the Company's asset retirement agreement with the state of Ohio, the latest forward price curves and the GBP/USD exchange rate, increasing our price target to 148p/share (from 121p/share) and our BUY recommendation.

Companies: Diversified Gas & Oil
  • 01 Apr 20
Oil & Gas Flash Note

Against the backdrop subdued commodity pricing, JKX has delivered another robust set of annual results. Yesterday’s FY19 figures show a 9.5% yoy increase in revenues, coming in at the upper end of guidance, and a 116% increase in PBT to US$30.4m. Operationally, FY19 was an active year for JKX, delivering material value accretive barrels to the company’s production base in the Ukraine, whilst declines in Russia at Well 20 have been largely offset by Wells 18 and 5. The Company’s shares currently trade at only 83% of annualised cash generated from operations, underlining its deep discount to NAV therefore offers compelling value to shareholders in our view.

Companies: JKX Oil And Gas
  • 02 Apr 20
Gulf Keystone Petroleum#

October 2019 production payment received

Companies: Gulf Keystone Petroleum