CES Energy Solutions(CEU-TSX); BUY, C$3.75― After yesterday’s management update, we still think the stock is a double | Gear Energy (GXE-TSX); HOLD, C$0.55 ― Reports 4Q19 results and 2019 reserve book | Inter Pipeline (IPL-TSX); HOLD, C$21.00― FLASH: 4Q19 results slightly below Street | Kelt Exploration (KEL-TSX); BUY, C$5.65― Reports 2019 reserve book | Ovintiv (OVV-NYSE); BUY, C$20.00― OVV –FCF outlook and capital efficiencies improving | Peyto Exploration & Development(PEY-TSX); HOLD, C$4.35― Reports 2019 reserve book, executes early note repayments
Companies: GXE IPL KEL OVV PEY
Peyto reported fourth quarter financial and operating results that were ahead of consensus expectations, with CFPS of $0.98/sh in the period in line with our forecast though ahead of consensus of $0.93/sh. There are no material changes to our forecast in aggregate though we have moved some elements associated with timing mildly, as it has preserved a $200-$250 mm E&D capex outlook for 2018e in what is largely a back-end weighted 2H18e program. We have maintained our 12-month target price to $15.00/sh, reflective of an 8.3x 2019e EV/DACF target on the current strip. We continue to rate the stock as a BUY, viewing its fundamental business and intrinsic business as solid in a challenged pricing environment, though rising debt after a period of deleveraging is a risk in later 2019e on the current strip.
Companies: Peyto Exploration & Development Corp.
As anticipated in the current Canadian natural gas price forward complex, Peyto has announced its intention to reduce its dividend to $0.06/month from $0.11/month (~$119 mm per annum from $218 mm) beginning in 2018e. Further, the company will lower 2018e E&D capex to $200-$250 mm from $300-$450 mm prior, below sustaining capex levels that we previously estimated at $325-$350 mm. The company attained its 2017 exit target of 115,000 boe/d, and at 11,000 bbl/d or ~10% liquids, is entering the year at a higher liquids composition than we portended, which is positive. However, with investment below maintenance levels, the company will shrink ahead, exiting 2018e at 97,500-100,000 boe/d. Our revised forecast actually reflects a +1% improvement to 2018e CFO on realignment of projected liquids output and lower interest/performance comp cash costs at the current strip. In 2019e, CFPS is down 10% though net debt exiting 2018e and 2019e is 17% and 24% lower than our prior view, in which we already postulated a dividend cut, so leverage characteristics will look even better relative to prior market estimates. Our 12-month target price of $20.00/sh is unchanged approximating 10.8x 2019e EV/DACF on the current strip, a +4% multiple lift from our prior view though a 5% reduction on a 2018e basis.
Peyto announced second quarter financial and operating results that were in line with our expectations, highlighted by the preservation of profitability in the period, which will likely be singular across all E&P reporting. There is no change to 2016e guidance. We expect Peyto to continue to strive towards a ~120,000 boe/d 2016e exit rate. Peyto should be a core portfolio holding. We have realigned our 12-month target price to a valuation in line with that of its peer group at the strip, and as such offer a revised $43.50/sh target price.
Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly reversed into summer, market likely to ignore financials for natural gas producers and look ahead to winter and formalization of sell-side 2018e estimates in coming months. Spot AECO natural gas prices recently crested C$2.60/mcf, and with a reasonable alignment of previously distressed NE BC Stn2 differentials, augmented by a withdrawal expected next week, view the market psyche as constructive and looking ahead, with the analogy that this market is shaping up to mirror 2012 still holding. That said, with crude oil poised to retest support levels, combined with strong stock price performance broadly observed YTD, we would characterize sentiment as slightly pessimistic in the near-term which could reduce or unwind momentum-based investment strategies that have worked thus far in 2016.
Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PWT PSK VII TOU VET WCP BNE CJ CR DEE JOY KEL LTS NVA PPY PNE RRX RMP SRX SGY TOG TET ATU CKE GXE IKM LXE MQL PRQ SPE SKX TVE TVETF YO
Coming off of research restriction following our participation in Peyto’s $172.5 mm equity offering, issuing 5.4 mm shares at $32.00/sh, Peyto reported first quarter results that were well ahead of forecast and should easily validate investor subscription in its equity issue.
With this publication we briefly summarize our projections for 1Q16e quarterly results for the Junior E&P (Intermediate, Mid & Small Cap) segments of our coverage universe
Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PSK VII TOU VET WCP BNE CJ CR DEE JOY KEL LTS LRE NVA PPY PNE RRX RMP SRX SGY TOG TET ATU CKE GXE IKM LXE ROAOF MQL RE SPE SKX TVE TVETF YGR YO
With this publication we highlight various metrics and statistics forthcoming from yearend reserve books for our Domestic E&P coverage universe (Integrateds, Large Cap, Oilsands, Intermediate, Mid Cap, and Small Cap). Similar charts for YE2014 reserves can be found in our Statistical Package dated April 7, 2015.
Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PWT VII TXP VET WCP BNE CJ KEL LTS LRE NVA PPY PNE RRX RMP SRX SGY TOG TET ATU BXO CKE GXE IKM LXE MQL SKX TVE TVETF YGR YO
With this publication we highlight forecast revisions associated with our commodity price update (Natural Gas Update; Crude Oil Update), roughly characterized by near term lifts in crude oil prices concurrent with a reduction to portended 2016e and 2017e natural gas pricing outlooks. While there are a few ranking changes on mostly non-material moves to valuations, implied returns within the group on the whole are far less than postulated only a few months ago, reflective of resurgent equity prices on what was previously an oversold market. Details of the Alberta royalty review should arrive in the following weeks; hence the likelihood of subsequent forecast changes is likely.
Companies: AAV ARX BNP CPG PEY VET BNE CJ CR DEE KEL NVA PPY LXE TVE
Peyto reported fourth quarter results that were in line to ahead of our expectations. While the Company has reduced 2016e E&D capital investment by $100 mm to $500-$550 mm, our volume growth and CFPS targets are actually up, a direct result of both lower operating and capital inputs embedded into our revised forecast. We reiterate our 12-month target price of $40.50/sh and Outperform ranking. Thematically, the current commodity price environment reminds us of the spring of 2012, and within that context, we would invest in Peyto at current levels.
Impact: Postive. Peyto announced solid 4Q15 results that were ahead of our production and cash flow expectations. The Company also offered an updated 2016e outlook that included a reduced capital program, citing improved capital efficiencies, that will likely prompt upward revisions to our proforma estimates.
Peyto reported 2015 year-end reserves illustrative of the achievement of remarkable cost efficiencies and decent reserve growth consistent across all categories. A rigorous self-assessment, characteristic of a typical Peyto report, validates the premise of successful profit-oriented business strategy. There is no change to its 2016e guidance and related growth targets though the Company seems to be gravitating towards the upper end of its prior target ranges. Updating our NAV methodology, we are increasing our 12-month target price by ~7% to $40.50/share and maintain our Outperform ranking.
With this publication we highlight forecast revisions associated with our crude oil commodity price update. Concurrent within a dynamic time for E&Ps, some of which have already begun the process of 2016 capital budget downdrafts, revised estimates attempt to directionally capture a shift towards capital conservation, though severely weakened futures curves have influenced our thinking for the better part of 6 months anyway. We expect further capital investment reductions forthcoming from E&Ps in the coming weeks.
Companies: AAV ARX BNP CPG ERF POU PEY SPE SGY TVE TOG TOU VET GXE KEL NVA PPY BTE PGF PSK PWT VII WCP BNE CJ CR DEE JOY LTS LRE PNE RRX RMP SRX TET ATU BXO CKE IKM LXE ROAOF MQL RE SKX TVETF YGR YO
This publication serves to recap the chaotic changes that have happened since original 2016e budgets were disseminated, plus provide clarity on the names we believe will thrive, survive, or those that will be challenged to remain in this group for much longer.
Companies: ARX CJ CPG PEY WCP VET BNP BNE ERF SGY TOG
While a new year, a lot of our Top Ideas are old and familiar. We continue to believe the market will coalesce around low cost entities able to grow or at least maintain earnings power within a framework of capital conservation. While we continue to be optimistic surrounding elevated M&A activity, management teams and boards will be reluctant to sell at cyclical troughs, and as such do not believe the market will speculate on transactions despite some compelling asset prices reflected in equities right now (contingent of course on some aspect of commodity price recovery). Hence, going-concern business plans built to survive and thrive will be held in higher regard than NAV stories rich in potential energy and associated optionality yet tenuous in ability to create value in weak commodity prices within the absence of corporate bids. This is a familiar theme through much of 2015 on the E&P side. The near-term outlook for oilfield services continues to be bearish due to continued reductions in North American E&P capital spending on a y/y basis and early signs that announced spending may be weighted towards 2H16e. The stock prices for OFS companies will move before profitability begins to nudge higher, however, the duration of the downturn remains uncertain. Our view is unchanged in that taking positions in OFS companies with strong balance sheets, above average asset quality and disciplined management teams will reward patient, long-term investors. Near-term equity performance is likely to be very volatile. Some upside is to be realized by energy infrastructure names that are positioned to fund a growing dividend and those that can find a substantial tailwind with a potential oil price recovery.
Companies: CNQ AAV ARX PEY TOU CPG WCP CJ KEL PPY RRX SRX IAE PXT TLW SES ENB ENF
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i3 Energy has provided an interim update the highlights of which are: • Production is exceeding expectations with lower declines than modelled resulting in stable production from November 2020 to January 2021 averaging 9,150 boe/d (41% liquids) – about 1,000 boe/d greater than expected by the forecasts of the company's competent persons' reports at the time of its relisting. • Based on the futures curves for oil & gas, the company anticipates net operating income for 2021 (revenue minus royalties, operating costs, transportation and processing) of approximately CAD $35m (US $27.6m). • Maintenance capital expenditure guidance in conjunction with the net operating income amounts to CAD$3m. • i3 Energy completed an 80 hour flow-test on a horizontal Falher well located on its Noel acreage in Northeast British Columbia. The flow test ran for a sustained period at 4,200 mcf/d (700 boe/d) on a 1/4” choke. The well is expected to be brought on production at approximately 500 boepd during the second quarter of 2021, following tie-in. This well was not included in the company's 2P reserve estimates. The result represents a materially value enhancing development. Both the net income guidance and maintenance capital guidance excludes the potential contribution of the Noel acreage. • The Company continues to progress the legal process to allow it to declare a dividend in Q1 2021. As previously disclosed, the Company aims to distribute up to 30% of free cash flow as a dividend to shareholders. • The company indicated that discussions continue with a potential farm-in partner for the Serenity discovery and terms are being negotiated. The recent strengthening in commodity prices has reinvigorated activity within i3's virtual data room, and additional parties previously contacted during early 2020 have now re-engaged with the company. The company indicated that the market will be updated if and when an agreement is reached. (see Table 1 for asset scale/value estimates in relation to the company's North Sea assets).
Companies: i3 Energy Plc
tinyBuild— a leading video games publisher and developer with global operations. tinyBuild's strategic focus is in creating longlasting IP by partnering with video games developers, establishing a stable platform on which to build multi-game and multimedia franchises is to join AIM. Offer details TBC. Due mid-March. AMTE Power, a developer and manufacturer of lithium-ion battery cells for specialist markets, announced its intention to seek admission to trading on AIM. Admission is expected to take place during March 2021. The Company intends to raise approximately £7m by way of a placing of new ordinary shares in the capital of the Company. Timing TBC. Samarkand Group Limited, the cross-border eCommerce technology and retail group opening up the world's largest market for brands and retailers, intends to IPO on the Apex Segment Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market. Admission is targeted for March 2021. Cellular Goods a UK-based provider of premium consumer products based on biosynthetic cannabinoids announced its intention to join the main market (standard). Has raised £13M in an oversubscribed placing. £25m mkt cap. Due 26 Feb. NextEnergy Renewables to launch an IPO on the Main Market. NREN is a differentiated renewables investment Company that aims to capture the most attractive private renewables and energy transition infrastructure investment opportunities globally. Targeting a £300m raise. NREN is targeting total returns of 9-11 per cent. per annum (net of all fees and expenses but including the Target Dividend and capital appreciation) . The Company's target dividend yield for the first full financial year to 31 December 2022 is 5.5 pence. Due Early March 2021. Digital 9 Infrastructure launch an initial public offering on the Specialist Fund Segment of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange, by way of an initial placing and offer for subscription for a target issue £400m. Digital 9 Infrastructure plc is a newly established, externally managed investment trust. The Company will invest in a range of digital infrastructure assets which deliver a reliable, functioning internet. The IPO Prospectus is expected to be published in March 2021. Team PLC announced their plans for an AIM IPO. Team owns Theta Enhanced Asset Management Ltd, trading as Team Asset Management. This is a Jersey-based active fund manager providing discretionary and advisory portfolio management services to private clients, trusts and charities. Assets under management were GBP291m in November, up from GBP140m in December 2019 . The Company is seeking to raise no less than £5m. The Placing will be priced on a pre-money valuation for the Company of £7m. Targeting March Admission. Virgin Wines UK Plc has out their plans for an AIM IPO. Virgin Wines is a direct-to-consumer online wine retailer that sells products to retail customers in the UK through two subscription schemes and a pay-as-you-go offering. The Group also sells a range of beers and spirits and operates a B2B sales channel for corporates. Anticipated mkt cap £110m. Raising £13m in new money and vendor sale of £34.9m . Due 2nd March. Fix Price announces its intention to float on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Fix Price is one of the leading variety value retailers globally and the largest in Russia, with more than 4,200 stores. Fix Price has revenues of RUB 190.1bn, RUB 142.9bn and RUB 108.7bn for 2020, 2019 and 2018, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA for the same years was RUB 36.8bn, RUB 27.2bn and RUB 14.2bn, respectively. The Offer would consist of an offering of GDRs by certain existing shareholders of the Company. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC announced its prospectus has been approved by the FCA. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC is a newly established, externally managed closed-ended investment company. The Company will provide project finance to content makers and commissioners in the global television and film production industry via senior loans secured against pre-sold intellectual property (IP) rights. GPEIT's investment objective is to provide Shareholders with dividend income and modest capital growth through exposure to media content finance. According to media reports, Deliveroo, are expecting to release their IPO plans on 8th March. The company raised more than $180m in January with a valuation of more than $7bn.
Companies: YEW IKA UPR WYN ENW BWNG TRAK DBOX HZM G4M
tinyBuild— a leading video games publisher and developer with global operations. tinyBuild's strategic focus is in creating longlasting IP by partnering with video games developers, establishing a stable platform on which to build multi-game and multimedia franchises is to join AIM. Offer details TBC. Due mid-March. AMTE Power, a developer and manufacturer of lithium-ion battery cells for specialist markets, announced its intention to seek admission to trading on AIM. Admission is expected to take place during March 2021. The Company intends to raise approximately £7m by way of a placing of new ordinary shares in the capital of the Company. Timing TBC. Samarkand Group Limited, the cross-border eCommerce technology and retail group opening up the world's largest market for brands and retailers, intends to IPO on the Apex Segment Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market. Admission is targeted for March 2021. NextEnergy Renewables to launch an IPO on the Main Market. NREN is a differentiated renewables investment Company that aims to capture the most attractive private renewables and energy transition infrastructure investment opportunities globally. Targeting a £300m raise. NREN is targeting total returns of 9-11 per cent. per annum (net of all fees and expenses but including the Target Dividend and capital appreciation) . The Company's target dividend yield for the first full financial year to 31 December 2022 is 5.5 pence. Due Early March 2021. Digital 9 Infrastructure launch an initial public offering on the Specialist Fund Segment of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange, by way of an initial placing and offer for subscription for a target issue £400m. Digital 9 Infrastructure plc is a newly established, externally managed investment trust. The Company will invest in a range of digital infrastructure assets which deliver a reliable, functioning internet. The IPO Prospectus is expected to be published in March 2021. Team PLC announced their plans for an AIM IPO. Team owns Theta Enhanced Asset Management Ltd, trading as Team Asset Management. This is a Jersey-based active fund manager providing discretionary and advisory portfolio management services to private clients, trusts and charities. Assets under management were GBP291m in November, up from GBP140m in December 2019 . The Company is seeking to raise no less than £5m. The Placing will be priced on a pre-money valuation for the Company of £7m. Targeting March Admission. Virgin Wines UK Plc has out their plans for an AIM IPO. Virgin Wines is a direct-to-consumer online wine retailer that sells products to retail customers in the UK through two subscription schemes and a pay-as-you-go offering. The Group also sells a range of beers and spirits and operates a B2B sales channel for corporates. Anticipated mkt cap £110m. Raising £13m in new money and vendor sale of £34.9m . Due 2nd March. Fix Price announces its intention to float on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Fix Price is one of the leading variety value retailers globally and the largest in Russia, with more than 4,200 stores. Fix Price has revenues of RUB 190.1bn, RUB 142.9bn and RUB 108.7bn for 2020, 2019 and 2018, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA for the same years was RUB 36.8bn, RUB 27.2bn and RUB 14.2bn, respectively. The Offer would consist of an offering of GDRs by certain existing shareholders of the Company. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC announced its prospectus has been approved by the FCA. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC is a newly established, externally managed closed-ended investment company. The Company will provide project finance to content makers and commissioners in the global television and film production industry via senior loans secured against pre-sold intellectual property (IP) rights. GPEIT's investment objective is to provide Shareholders with dividend income and modest capital growth through exposure to media content finance. According to media reports, Deliveroo, are expecting to release their IPO plans on 8th March. The company raised more than $180m in January with a valuation of more than $7bn.
Companies: ARS ESC AQX ARTL KRS KBT GRP BOOM CNS ANIC
AMTE Power, a developer and manufacturer of lithium-ion battery cells for specialist markets, announced its intention to seek admission to trading on AIM. Admission is expected to take place during March 2021. The Company intends to raise approximately £7m by way of a placing of new ordinary shares in the capital of the Company. Timing TBC. Samarkand Group Limited, the cross-border eCommerce technology and retail group opening up the world's largest market for brands and retailers, intends to IPO on the Apex Segment Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market. Admission is targeted for March 2021. Cellular Goods a UK-based provider of premium consumer products based on biosynthetic cannabinoids announced its intention to join the main market (standard) this Spring. Target valuation £20m raising c. £8m “to finalise the development and launch of a range of the Company's premium-quality consumer products based on biosynthetic cannabinoids, which is fully compliant under UK law.” NextEnergy Renewables to launch an IPO on the Main Market. NREN is a differentiated renewables investment Company that aims to capture the most attractive private renewables and energy transition infrastructure investment opportunities globally. Targeting a £300m raise. NREN is targeting total returns of 9-11 per cent. per annum (net of all fees and expenses but including the Target Dividend and capital appreciation) . The Company's target dividend yield for the first full financial year to 31 December 2022 is 5.5 pence. Due Early March 2021. Digital 9 Infrastructure launch an initial public offering on the Specialist Fund Segment of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange, by way of an initial placing and offer for subscription for a target issue £400m. Digital 9 Infrastructure plc is a newly established, externally managed investment trust. The Company will invest in a range of digital infrastructure assets which deliver a reliable, functioning internet. The IPO Prospectus is expected to be published in March 2021. Team PLC announced their plans for an AIM IPO. Team owns Theta Enhanced Asset Management Ltd, trading as Team Asset Management. This is a Jersey-based active fund manager providing discretionary and advisory portfolio management services to private clients, trusts and charities. Assets under management were GBP291m in November, up from GBP140m in December 2019 . The Company is seeking to raise no less than £5 million. The Placing will be priced on a pre-money valuation for the Company of £7m. Targeting March Admission. Virgin Wines UK Plc recently set out their plans for an AIM IPO. Virgin Wines is a direct-to-consumer online wine retailer that sells products to retail customers in the UK through two subscription schemes and a pay-as-you-go offering. The Group also sells a range of beers and spirits and operates a B2B sales channel for corporates. Deal details TBC but media reports suggest a £100m valuation. Targeting 2nd March Admission Fix Price announces its intention to float on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Fix Price is one of the leading variety value retailers globally and the largest in Russia, with more than 4,200 stores. Fix Price has revenues of RUB 190.1bn, RUB 142.9bn and RUB 108.7bn for 2020, 2019 and 2018, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA for the same years was RUB 36.8bn, RUB 27.2bn and RUB 14.2bn, respectively. The Offer would consist of an offering of GDRs by certain existing shareholders of the Company. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC announced its prospectus has been approved by the FCA. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC is a newly established, externally managed closed-ended investment company. The Company will provide project finance to content makers and commissioners in the global television and film production industry via senior loans secured against pre-sold intellectual property (IP) rights. GPEIT's investment objective is to provide Shareholders with dividend income and modest capital growth through exposure to media content finance. According to media reports, Deliveroo, are expecting to release their IPO plans on 8th March. The company raised more than $180m in January with a valuation of more than $7bn.
Companies: CCS OKYO SML BEG SBIZ GDP SGM SEN AMO KZG
The Calabar power station, which accounts for the majority of Savannah’s Nigerian gas sales, has entered a new power supply agreement with the Republic of Togo, with more in discussion, raising the prospect of meaningful increases in Savannah’s gas supplies to the plant. These additional volumes will come at negligible additional cost, leveraging the bottom-line impact. The recently signed Mulak Energy gas sales agreement demonstrates this, boosting our 2022 earnings by 8% and our risked-NAV and price target by 6% to 55p/sh.
Companies: Savannah Energy Plc
Today's news & views, plus announcements from MRW, BNZL, HICL, AGK, SEPL, SEIT, SDY, BGO, SHED
Companies: BGO SEIT SEPL
Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) BUY – H2/20 exploration work returns exciting results at Gedabek CA Bushveld Minerals* (BMN LN) - Strong Buy 31p – Vanadium prices rise as new demand meets tight supply Gemfields (GEM LN) – Resumption of operations at Kagem and Montepuez after a year of disrupted production and sales GoldStone Resources* (GRL LN) – Exercise of warrants raises £1.2m Power Metal Resources* (POW LN) – Portfolio update Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) – Continued access to Cobre confirmed while current copper prices boost Leigh Creek economic returns
Companies: GML AAZ BMN GRL POW SML
Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) – Termination of the proposed JV with Conroy Asiamet Resources (ARS LN) – £10m fundraising Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) – 2020 results highlight progress in Kosovo and Sweden Cornish Metals* (CUSN LN) – Warrants exercised Phoenix Copper* (PXC LN) – Exercise of warrants follows recent economic update for Empire development project Scotgold Resources* (SGZ LN) – Production update and management/Board changes.
Companies: ARS CUSN AAZ BEM PXC SGZ
Adriatic Metals* (ADT1) – Acquisition of RAS Metals Arc Minerals* (ARCM LN) – Change of accounting reference date and issue of 1.2m new shares to service provider Caledonia Mining* (CMCL LN) – Non-executive appointment Phoenix Copper* (PXC LN) – £2m debt facility to accelerate the Empire project Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) – Exploring potential to the west at Redmoor Power Metal Resources* (POW LN) – Drilling update Rainbow Rare Earths* (RBW LN) – 10,000tpa Gakara down-stream process plant feasibility confirmed Sunrise Resources (SRES LN) – Progress report on projects
Companies: CMCL ADT ARCM PXC POW RBW SML SRES
We are replacing our preliminary valuation of i3 Energy, which had been premised on the valuations of GLJ and Sproule, with our own valuation model and our own commodity price assumptions. The resource estimates assumed in our valuation remain aligned with those of i3 Energy's resource evaluators, namely, GLJ, Sproule and AGR Tracs. Our fair value amounts to 15.0p/share, which compares to our prior and preliminary valuation of 17.7p/share. Our valuation is premised on the proven and probable reserves of the company's Canadian assets; therefore, we believe that the company's current share price provides an opportunity to acquire a compelling investment at a steeply discounted entry price.
Reverse Takeover by London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG.L) following the acquisition of Refinitiv in an all share transaction for a total enterprise value of approximately US$27 billion.
Companies: ADME ROCK ZPHR DKL VARE SMRT PTRO MHC BOO
AMTE Power, a developer and manufacturer of lithium-ion battery cells for specialist markets, announced its intention to seek admission to trading on AIM. Admission is expected to take place during March 2021. The Company intends to raise approximately £7 million by way of a placing of new ordinary shares in the capital of the Company. Timing TBC. Samarkand Group Limited, the cross-border eCommerce technology and retail group opening up the world's largest market for brands and retailers, intends to IPO on the Apex Segment Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market. Admission is targeted for March 2021. Cellular Goods a UK-based provider of premium consumer products based on biosynthetic cannabinoids announced its intention to join the main market (standard) this Spring. Target valuation £20m raising c. £8m “to finalise the development and launch of a range of the Company's premium-quality consumer products based on biosynthetic cannabinoids, which is fully compliant under UK law.” NextEnergy Renewables to launch an IPO on the Main Market. NREN is a differentiated renewables investment company that aims to capture the most attractive private renewables and energy transition infrastructure investment opportunities globally. Targeting a £300m raise. NREN is targeting total returns of 9-11 per cent. per annum (net of all fees and expenses but including the Target Dividend and capital appreciation) . The Company's target dividend yield for the first full financial year to 31 December 2022 is 5.5 pence. Due Early March 2021. Auction Technology Group is considering an IPO on the Main Market. The Group operates six world-leading online Marketplaces and proprietary global auction platform technology for curated online auctions . In FY20 the Group delivered pro forma revenue of £52.3 million, supported by notable underlying year-on-year growth from both Standalone ATG Group and Standalone Proxibid Group (12.4 per cent. and 40.4 per cent., respectively). For the same period, the Group delivered a strong profitability performance of £22.3 million pro forma Adjusted EBITDA representing a pro forma Adjusted EBITDA margin of 42.6 per cent. Expected March 2021. Digital 9 Infrastructure launch an initial public offering on the Specialist Fund Segment of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange, by way of an initial placing and offer for subscription for a target issue £400m. Digital 9 Infrastructure plc is a newly established, externally managed investment trust. The Company will invest in a range of digital infrastructure assets which deliver a reliable, functioning internet. The IPO Prospectus is expected to be published in March 2021. 4basebio UK Societas is a specialist life sciences group focused on therapeutic DNA for gene therapies and DNA vaccines and providing solutions for effective and safe delivery of these DNA based products to patients. The Company has been divested from 4basebio AG , a German company listed on the Prime Standard segment of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange . No capital to be raised on Admission. Anticipated market capitalisation on AIM Admission: £14.53m.
Companies: SAR PAF PTRO NEXS TYM BOD CLX FAB ODX DUKE
Bluebird Merchant Ventures (BMV LN) – Funding proposed through digital token linked to gold Empire Metals* (EEE LN) – Empire complete acquisition of Eclipse gold project Condor Gold* (CNR LN) – Drilling underway on the Cacao Vein Cornish Metals* (CUSN LN) – Osisko converts its note to a royalty Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) – High-grade gold intersections received at Anza Phoenix Copper* (PXC LN) – £2m debt facility to accelerate the Empire project Rambler Metals and Mining* (RMM LN) – New non-executive appointment to strengthen the board Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) – Lucky Copper Project drilling
Companies: CUSN OMI BMV CNR EEE PXC RMM TYM IRR
• YE20 1P, 2P and 3P reserves were respectively 22.3 mmbbl (+4% vs YE19), 51.0 mmbbl (+7%) and 106.1 mmbbl (+25%). • The YE20 estimates are net of 2.1 mmbbl production in 2020, implying a 5.4 mmbbl upwards revision for the 2P reserves compared to previous estimates. The 1P and 2P reserves increase reflect a reserves replacement ratio of respectively 38% and 157%. • As we anticipated the reserves increase is the result of higher recovery factor assumptions, reflecting the performance of the wells to date. The new 2P and 3P cases assume recovery factors of respectively 15% (+1.4%) and 17% (+2.4%). • We are increasing our target price from £0.50 to £0.60 per share to incorporate the reserves additions. Some additional details on the YE20 reserves statement The auditors now assume opex 19% lower than at YE19 in the 2P case (which we already assume in our model). In comparison with YE19, the lower opex represents an undiscounted saving of US$232 mm. The reserves auditor estimates the after tax NPV10 of the 2P reserves at US$621 mm at YE20 compared to US$746 mm at YE19. The change of value has to be read in light of much lower Brent price assumptions with the YE20 report assuming ~US$49/bbl in 2021, increasing to ~US$60/bbl in 2026. This compares with the YE19 report which assumed ~US$68/bbl in 2021, increasing to ~US$76/bbl in 2026. Updating our valuation The new reserves report illustrates the potential for further reserves increases at Bretana. Out of 84 mmbbl 3P reserves estimated at YE19, 51 mmbbl have now been booked as 2P in addition to 2.1 mmbbl having been produced. We believe that with additional production history, the reserves auditor will continue to revise upwards its estimates of recovery factors. Our new 2P NAV is £0.37 per share (£0.34 per share previously), which represents >2x the current share price. Our new ReNAV incorporating the increase in reserves is £0.59 per share (£0.52 per share previously). We have set our new target price at this level.
Companies: PetroTal Corp.
Alba Mineral Resources (ALBA LN) – Welsh exploration programme Bluejay Mining* (JAY LN) - BUY - Valuation 40p – Bluejay training students and personnel in Greenland for Dundas project IronRidge Resources* (IRR LN) – Progress at Ewoyaa Lithium Project Keras Resources* (KRS LN) – Chairman reports no outstanding requirements on grant of exploitation permit at Nayéga manganese mine in Togo Mkango Resources* (MKA LN) – Pilot plant test-work underway Power Metal Resources* (POW LN) – Option exercised to acquire Coco East Property Sibanye-Stillwater (SSW JSE) - Sibanye-Stillwater Partner up with Keliber for lithium in Finland Tirupati Graphite (TGR LN) – Trials of battery grade spherical graphite accelerate timetable to commercial production
Companies: MKA ALBA JAY KRS POW TGR IRR SSW
