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  • 26 Nov 19

Oil prices help, but the best returns come from asset growth

This note takes a look at UK oil and gas sector equities from the supermajors down to the small cap E&Ps, the extent to which they outperform a simple bet on oil prices, and whether there are common characteristics that can allow investors to pick winners in the space. We conclude that outperformance is possible and has been achieved by numerous names in the last ten years, with the core hallmarks being asset base augmentation, either by progressing assets and/or via acquisition, and possessing the agency to achieve this. We also include profiles of the oil and gas stocks in our coverage.

Companies: BLVN GENL GEEC GKP HTG HUR IOG JOG LAM PANR PMO RKH SEN

  • 14 Nov 19

GMP FirstEnergy ― UK Energy morning research package

Touchstone Exploration (TXP LN/CN)1 ; BUY, £0.25: 3Q19 results | Baron Oil (BOIL LN) (not covered): Reverse take over with South East Asia business | Premier Oil (PMO LN); BUY, £1.45: Solid 3Q19 update | Serinus Energy (SENX LN)1 ; Speculative Buy, £0.20: 3Q19 results | Condor Petroleum (CPI CN) (not covered): 3Q19 results and entry into Uzbekistan | Africa Oil (AOI CN/SS): BUY, C$2.60; 3Q19 results | Tullow Oil (TLW LN); REDUCE, £1.55: Wait for further visibility on Ghana

Companies: TXP BOIL PMO SEN CPI AOI TLW

  • 14 Nov 19

Q3 2019 results

Serinus has released its Q3 2019 results. These report Q3 production of 2.1mboe/d (1.7mboe/d from Romania and 0.4mboe/d from Tunisia), making for 1.2mboe/d for the Q1-Q3 period, and representing a significant increase on the 0.7boe/d reported for H1 2019. This has been achieved mainly on the back of the Moftinu gas plant in Romania (brought onstream in April), but also the Chouech Es Saida field in Tunisia being brought back into production over the summer. This, alongside strong realised Romanian gas prices averaging US$7.3/mcf over Q1-Q3, has driven Q3 EBITDA of US$4.1m, for a total of US$5.2m for Q1-Q3; and Q3 FCF of US$1.6m, for a total of US$2.3m for Q1-Q3. Net debt at the end of September was US$28.2m, from US$29.1m at the end of June. Unit OPEX was US$11.8/boe for Q1-Q3, from US$16.5/boe in H1, with the positive impact from higher production partly countered by increased costs in Tunisia bringing Chouech Es Saida back onstream.

Companies: SERINUS ENERGY
  • 14 Nov 19

First Light

Serinus Energy (SENX) – Corporate – Q3 Financial and Operating Results

Companies: SERINUS ENERGY
  • 14 Nov 19

FLASH: 3Q19 results

 3Q19 WI production was 1.5 mboe/d (GMP FEe: 1.4 mboe/d), comprising 1.0 mboe/d in Romania (GMP FEe: 1.0 mboe/d) and 0.4 mboe/d in Tunisia (GMP FEe: 0.4 mboe/d).  October production was 1.3 mboe/d (GMP FEe 4Q19: 1.4 mboe/d), comprising 0.7 mboe/d in Romania (GMP FEe 4Q19: 0.9 mboe/d) and 0.6 mboe/d in Tunisia (GMP FEe 4Q19: 0.5 mboe/d).  In Romania, October production was impacted by routine maintenance of the Moftinu gas plant from October 14 to October 20 and the subsequent ramping up of the Moftinu production on a smaller choke.  In Tunisia, the company recommenced production at the Chouech Es Saida field during the quarter and exited October with production from the field of 277 bbl/d.  End 3Q19 net debt was c. US$27.1 mm (GMP FEe: c. US$27.8 mm).

Companies: SERINUS ENERGY
  • 24 Oct 19

Oil & Gas Daily Flow

Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas (ECO): Encouraging Guyana Operational Update | Serica Energy (SQZ): Receipt of OFAC License and Assurance for Rhum | Serinus Energy (SENX): 12-month extension at Satu Mare, Moftinu-1004 to be drilled in January 2020

Companies: ECO SQZ SEN

  • 24 Oct 19

FLASH: Licence extension in Romania

Serinus has been granted a 12-month extension on the third exploration phase of the Satu Mare Concession in Romania. The company is proceeding with the drilling of the Moftinu - 1004 production well in 1Q20. The third exploration phase was set to expire on 26 October 2019.

Companies: SERINUS ENERGY
  • 24 Oct 19

First Light

CareTech (CTH) – Corporate – Full year trading update in line closing a transformational year | Solid State (SOLI) – Corporate – Strong H1 update; well on course for the FY | Serinus Energy (SENX) – Corporate – Operational Update

Companies: CTH SOLI SEN

  • 24 Oct 19

GMP FirstEnergy ― UK Energy morning research package

Petro Matad (MATD LN) (not covered): Operating update in Mongolia | Equinor (EQNR NO) (not covered): 3Q19 results | Serinus Energy (SENX LN); SPECULATIVE BUY, £0.20: Licence extension in Romania | Serica Energy (SQZ LN) (not covered): North Sea update | Waldorf Production acquiring UK North Sea assets

Companies: MATD SEN SQZ

  • 24 Oct 19

Satu Mare licence phase extension

Serinus has announced that the Romanian regulator has granted a 12- month extension to the current phase of its Satu Mare block, in order to allow the existing work commitment to be met. The commitment is for a minimum 120 sq. km of 3D seismic. Serinus now has a 148 sq. km programme fully permitted, but this was not achieved in time to meet the original 26 October 2019 deadline (the company has to negotiate with numerous local landowners). As such, the licence phase has now been extended until 28 October 2020, and the new seismic programme is expected to go ahead in Q2 2020 in order to take advantage of local weather conditions.

Companies: SERINUS ENERGY
  • 21 Oct 19

Quarterly Research Outlook Autumn 2019

Following continued delays of a Brexit agreement, few sectors within the UK market have remained attractive to investors despite low valuations. One sector which has continued to outperform despite the political drama has been the UK video gaming sector (henceforth UK gaming), which we are fans of. We believe a combination of sector-leading growth, strong cash conversion and timely cyclical positioning support our positive view on the UK video gaming sector.

Companies: ABBY AMS ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CDM CSRT TIDE CYAN DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPO FDEV GTLY GENL GHH GRI GEEC GKP HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KAPE KEYS KWS KCT KGH LAM LIT LOK MACF MANO MOD OXIG PCA PANR APP SRE PHC PMO RBW RMM RBGP REDD RSW RNO ROR SUS SCPA SEN SHG SOLG SOM SUMO TM17 INCE TWD TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF

  • 21 Oct 19

Oil & Gas Daily Flow

Jadestone Energy (JSE): Southwest Vietnam Field Development Plan | Echo Energy (ECHO) – Acquisition agreement withPhoenix Global Resources | Block Energy (BLOE): Successful Cementing of Casing at Well WR-38Z | PetroTal (PTAL) – PetroTal achieves record production at Bretaña, Peru | Serinus Energy (SENX) - Moftinu gas production has resumed | Lekoil (LEK) - Phase Two Development Project Sanctioned

Companies: JSE ECHO BLOE PTAL SEN LEK

  • 21 Oct 19

Small Cap Feast

African Export-Import Bank a supranational financial institution w hose purpose is to facilitate, prom ote and expand intra- and extra- African trade, of its potential intention to publish a registration document, the Bank hereby confirms its intention to proceed with an Initial Public Offering. The GDRs are expected to be admitted to the standard listing segment of the Official List of the FCA and to trading on the Main Market of the LSE.

Companies: GFIN WRES BEG MIND BLOE JAY DXRX ASH SEN EMIS

  • 10 Oct 19

GMP FirstEnergy ― UK Energy morning research package

Bahamas Petroleum Company (BPC LN) (not covered): Equity raise and convertible for Bahamas | Serinus Energy (SEN LN); Speculative Buy, £0.20: Operating update | Regal Petroleum (RPT LN) (not covered): Operating update in Ukraine | Tethys Oil (TETY SS)1,6; BUY, SEK85: September production in Oman | TransGlobe Energy (TGL LN/CN)1,6; BUY, £2.40: Operating update

Companies: BPC SEN RPT TETY TGL

  • 10 Oct 19

First Light

Caledonia Mining (CMCL) – Corporate – New oxygen plant at Blanket | Serinus Energy (SENX) – Corporate – Operational Update

Companies: Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc Com Shs Npv SERINUS ENERGY

Research, Charts & Company Announcements

Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on SERINUS ENERGY. We currently have 113 research reports from 5 professional analysts.

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(more news)
Date Source Announcement
24May18 05:00 GNW Melissa Features KYC Tools, Services, Partnerships at #Money2020Europe
22May18 07:00 GNW Moftinu - 1007 Well Spudded
18May18 08:10 GNW Changes to the Board of Directors
15May18 14:36 GNW £10 million Placing and Proposed Admission to AIM
11May18 22:10 GNW Serinus Energy Inc. : Q1 2018 Financial and Operating Results
03May18 20:56 GNW Completion of Continuance into Jersey, Channel Islands
01May18 05:00 GNW Medibio Launches Global Corporate Mental Health Product
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  • 02 Dec 19

Hurricane Energy - Warwick West discovery

This morning Hurricane Energy announced the flow test results from its Warwick West well, which is the third and last well from the 2019 drilling campaign in the Greater Warwick Area (GWA). The well confirmed the discovery of 43° API light oil and tested at a stable flow rate of 1,300bod on natural flow with less than 0.5% of water being produced. Hurricane and Spirit Energy are evaluating the results of the 2019 drilling campaign and further technical analysis will determine both the potential for GWA to be a single accumulation and its volumetrics. Our risked valuation of Hurricane stands at 102.8p/share, with GWA tieback valued at 3.5p/share and GWA full field development at 21.6p/share. Hurricane shares are trading at 37.5p after dropping c 20% this morning. This implies the market is not attributing any value to the GWA full field, even though an oil discovery was observed.

Companies: Hurricane Energy
  • 02 Dec 19

Allenby Capital TMT Update - 02.12.19 (BIRD.L, CPX.L, SWG.L)

Blackbird plc* (BIRD.L, 35p/£30.7m) | CAP-XX Ltd* (CPX.L, 3.7p/£12.0m) | Shearwater plc (SWG.L, 242p/£53.5m)

Companies: BIRD CPX SWG

  • 02 Dec 19

Reinstating estimates

We are reinstating President Energy estimates after taking into account the recent temporary oil price controls and its strategic pivot towards gas in Argentina. Our forecasts come down materially, as does our price target, which we have cut from 19p to 10p. However, we believe the shares have already moved to discount the uncertain investment climate within Argentina. At this stage, the incoming President’s approach towards the oil industry remains unclear, although he has indicated support towards the development of Vaca Muerta shale. This uncertainty makes it hard for investors to commit, but PPC’s growing core Rio Negro assets provide investment flexibility alongside material growth potential that a period of stability in Argentina will reveal.

Companies: President Energy
  • 06 Dec 19

Diversified Gas & Oil - Roadmap to Main Market

Diversified Gas and Oil (DGO) has announced the successful completion of its securitised financing arrangement with a 5% coupon and 10-year maturity. The company issued $200m in notes secured by c 22% working interest of certain upstream assets’ cash flows. DGO also announced its Q319 results delivering a 10% q-o-q increase in production to c 91kboed and hedge adjusted EBITDA of $64m. Since our previous note, the company has completed three acquisitions encompassing assets located near DGO operations and announced it is pursuing a move to the Premium segment of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. We update our valuation to 157.2p/share affected by a decrease in short-term gas price assumptions and lower production in H119 compared to our last note.

Companies: Diversified Gas & Oil
  • 06 Dec 19

Cenkos: Salt Lake Potash Ltd -- Placing

Salt Lake has raised A$23.5m at A$0.70 from several new Australian institutional investors and existing institutional shareholders. Taurus has also extended the Stage 1 Facility by US$15m (A$22m) to US$45m ahead of the main Project Development Facility as Salt Lake complete documentation and satisfaction of conditions precedent for the main Project Development Facility. Whether the work is progressing quicker than expected or documentation is taking longer is unknown but Salt Lake are pushing forward to meet its Q4/20 target. The next key stage will be the main Project Development Facility being finalised.

Companies: Salt Lake Potash
  • 02 Sep 19

LIBERUM: Sylvania Platinum* - Results beat, Grasvally disposal but light on dividend

Sylvania has reported FY19 results (June Y/E) of $6.37/sh versus expectations of $5.95/sh due to a lighter tax expense than assumed. They have entered into a binding agreement to sell Grasvally for R115m ($7.6m at current FX), which should be settled in the next eight months.

Companies: Sylvania Platinum
  • 06 Nov 19

LIBERUM: Ceres Power - Clean hydrogen announcement, forthcoming CMD, sector M&A

Ceres has made a strategically important RNS this morning indicating it has launched its first hydrogen fuel cell system giving customers a zero carbon option system looking forward in addition to its low carbon natural gas systems - one of two areas we hoped it would develop into. Our note today explains the merits of having a fuell cell system designed specifically to work with clean hydrogen, flags next week's CMD at the new Redhill facility and Liberum's December's conference at Liberum and highlights the reasons why the hydrogen/FC sector has been booming.

Companies: Ceres Power
  • 12 Sep 19

Hurricane Energy - Lincoln Crestal positive flow test

This morning Hurricane Energy announced the flow test results from its Lincoln Crestal well, the second well of a three-well drilling campaign in the Greater Warwick Area (GWA). The well tested at a maximum stable flow rate of 9,800bopd using electrical submersible pumps (ESPs). The well flowed at an average rate of 4,682bopd under natural conditions and no formation water was produced. The well will now be suspended, with the intention that it will be used for production via tie-back to Lancaster’s Aoka Mizu FPSO in 2020, subject to further work, regulatory consent and final investment decision by the joint venture. Production from the tie-back would generate reservoir data to be used in planning future phases of development of GWA. The drilling rig will now move to the location for the third and last well of the 2019 drilling programme, Warwick West. Our latest risked valuation of Hurricane Energy stands at 102.8p/share, with GWA tie-back being valued at 3.5p/share and GWA FFD at 21.6p/share. Hurricane Energy is currently trading at 49.0p/share.

Companies: Hurricane Energy
  • 02 Dec 19

Premier Oil

BIG-P development onstream

Companies: Premier Oil
  • 04 Dec 19

Coro Energy - Italian asset disposal and Bulu acquisition update

Coro Energy has provided an update on both the disposal of its non-core Italian assets and its Bulu PSC acquisition offshore East Java. Coro has entered into a conditional sale and purchase agreement with Zenith Energy for the disposal of its entire Italian portfolio for a consideration of £3.9m paid in new Zenith Energy shares. An initial consideration of £0.4m will be paid on completion of the deal and the rest is subject to certain production targets. Coro also announced the parties in the Bulu PSC continue to progress the transfer of the 42.5% participating interest in the PSC to Coro. With the acquisition not completed by the 2 December 2019 long-stop date due to a delay in receipt of approvals, the parties are now negotiating a further six-month extension.

Companies: Coro Energy
  • 02 Oct 19

LIBERUM: Ceres Power - Significant commercial progress in FY19

FY results contain few surprises as the trading update in July had already revealed revenues and that operating losses had 'reduced significantly. The shares are now up almost 30% since we initiated with a Buy in late June but still over 30% below our DCF valuation based on forecasts through to 2030.

Companies: Ceres Power
  • 29 Oct 19

Q3: upstream impacted by weather, partly offset by a strong downstream

The results show positive contributions from Rosneft and all Downstream divisions, partly offsetting the Upstream division, which was down on lower prices and lower production. The release has been toned down by management, indicating that a dividend hike will not be likely in Q4 as the focus is on deleveraging. This is not surprising, in our view, since H2 had little room for improvement with the buy-back planned and we do not see this as a departure from the progressive dividend policy.

Companies: BP
  • 11 Nov 19

LIBERUM: Sirius Minerals* - Cost savings at the crux of the new plan

Sirius’ announcement this morning has confirmed it will split the financing of the shafts and the remainder of the project, with the $600m shaft component targeted before April. We outlined the rationale for this strategy in September and ran through some of the maths, but today’s release implies scope for less dilution than expected, if it can be executed.

Companies: Sirius Minerals
  • 13 Nov 19

Q3: back to square one?

Double whammy for Tullow Oil, which has revised its production forecasted for FY19 for the third time and reports that its latest discoveries in Guyana are heavy crudes with a high sulphur content. While it is too soon to declare both discoveries are not commercially viable, this is a big disappointment, which triggered a sell-off in the stock.

Companies: Tullow Oil
  • 27 Nov 19

Drilling setback but still large resources

The 13/23c-11 well (A2) has encountered 220 ft of Captain sands with 20’ MD estimated to be above the oil water contact (OWC). This compares with expectations of 70’-80’ of sands being above the OWC at the crestal location. While this will have negative implications on Liberator’s Phase I volumes, i3 believes that the small amount of sands above the OWC at the A2 well location does not mean that the net pay has decreased in the west of Liberator. This western area, where the sands thicken, holds the largest amount of resources, with 119 mmbbl prospective resources.

Companies: I3 Energy