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  • 01 Jun 18

Discontinuing research coverage

We are discontinuing research coverage of Spartan Energy, as the stock has been delisted following its recently approved acquisition by Vermilion Energy. All prior production and financial estimates, as well as research ratings and target prices, must no longer be relied upon.

Companies: Spartan Energy
  • 21 Feb 18

2017YE results and reserves

Management reported annual production of 22,200 boe/d, which is largely in line with our estimates of 22,125 boe/d and represents y/y PPS growth of 17%. This results in 4Q17 production of 22,636 boe/d, which is relatively flat QoQ but slightly ahead of our estimates of 22,340 boe/d. The company reported quarterly adjusted funds flow from operations of $65 mm ($0.35/sh dil), which was significantly ahead of our estimates of $57 mm ($0.31/sh dil) and consensus at ~$0.31/share. We don’t have the full financials yet leaving us to speculate on the reason for the large cash flow beat. Our guess at this juncture is better than forecasted realized light oil pricing and operating costs but we await the release of the audited statements in the middle of March. Reserves increased 2% on a PDP basis to 45.3 mmboe, 5% on a 1P basis to 73 mmboe and 4% on a 2P basis to 113.5 mmboe. PDP reserves made up 62% of 1P and 40% of 2P reserves, which is relatively flat y/y. Based on 2017 production, this represents a 2P RLI of 13.9 years. We have updated our model to reflect 2017YE results and reserves. With our current 2018 estimates in line with management’s 2018 guidance, we have not made any changes to our forecasts. With an implied return of 72%, we are maintaining our BUY rating.

Companies: Spartan Energy
  • 11 Jan 18

2018 budget and guidance

Spartan plans for 2018 E&D spending of $183 million plus $22 million for discretionary spending on waterflood and seismic initiatives. The 2018 drilling program calls for 140 net development oil wells including 64 net open-hole wells, 29 net Ratcliffe wells, 30 net frac’d Midale, and the remaining to the Viking light oil play. Management expects this to result in average annual production of 23,400 boe/d and an exit rate of 25,000 boe/d, representing growth of 6% YoY and 11% exit to exit. Average production was below our prior estimate of 24,270 boe/d and consensus of 24,470 boe/d. However, 2018 exit rate guidance aligned with our prior 4Q18 forecast of 25,100 boe/d. Based on US$60/b WTI, management forecasts cash flow of $267 million ($1.51/sh), which is higher than our prior estimates of $1.35/sh ($1.40/sh on strip) and consensus of $1.28/sh. We attribute this largely to 2018e production expense guided at $16.65/boe vs. GMP FE at $17.35/boe. We have updated our estimates to reflect the 2018 guidance. With an implied projected return of 42%, we are maintaining our BUY rating.

Companies: Spartan Energy
  • 09 Jan 18

Quality available at deep discounts amidst overt sector pessimism

The stocks on the GMP FirstEnergy Best Ideas List represent our highest conviction BUY recommendations with an expected return of 20% or more over the next 12 months. The investment thesis for each name on the list is laid out in this report.

Companies: CNQ AAV ATU PXX KEL RRX SPE WCP PXT SES PPL

  • 09 Nov 17

3Q17 results; production continues to track ahead of guidance

 3Q17 production of 22,630 boe/d was slightly ahead of our GMP FEestimate of 21,750 boe/d and the street estimate of 21,730 boe/d.  Quarterly cash flow of $41.1 mm ($0.22/sh dil) was in line with ourestimates of $40.1 mm ($0.22/share dil) and consensus of $0.21/share.  Production costs in the quarter were down 6% QoQ and were 5% belowour estimates ($17.28/boe vs GMPFE estimates of $18.15/boe). This is due to the fact that production costs were elevated in 2Q17 so it was positive to see the reduction to more normalized levels.  Reported realized pricing look like it came in a bit light at $46.98/boe vs. GMP FE at $48.12/boe.  The company spent $35.1 mm on E&D, which included drilling 39 (28 net) wells and bringing on-stream 37 (27.2 net) wells. SPE exited the quarter with net debt (ex. financial lease) of $205.1 mm (1.3x annualized 3Q CF) and $193.3 mm drawn on its $350 mm credit facility.  We have updated our estimates to reflect quarterly results. With an implied projected return of 37%, we are maintaining our BUY rating.

Companies: Spartan Energy
  • 11 Aug 16

ANNOUNCES 2Q16 FINANCIAL AND OPERATING RESULTS

Impact: Neutral. Spartan's 2Q16 financial results were consistent with our outlook on all key figures and inline with consensus cash flow estimates.

Companies: Spartan Energy
  • 03 Aug 16

ANNOUNCES SE SASKATCHEWAN ACQUISITION & CONCURRENT $70 MM BOUGHT DEAL FINANCING, UPDATED 2016E GUIDANCE

Impact: Neutral. Spartan's most recent acquisition continues to consolidate its land position at its key properties and build inventory in SE Saskatchewan at reasonable metrics. The Company's updated 2016e capital budget of $68 mm is cautiously below our prior view (FCC was $80 mm) and is expected to generate annual production of 10,700 boe/d (FCC was 11,000 boe/d) which will likely result in a minor reduction to our proforma production and cash flow outlook. Although we expect this acquisition and financing announcement, in isolation, would show as slightly dilutive to our CFPS outlook given financing proceeds well above the transaction price, recall, the Company has completed three meaningfully accretive transactions ($148.7 mm for 2,980 boe/d) since mid-May without concurrent equity issues.

Companies: Spartan Energy
  • 26 Jul 16

2Q16e Quarterly Preview

Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly reversed into summer, market likely to ignore financials for natural gas producers and look ahead to winter and formalization of sell-side 2018e estimates in coming months. Spot AECO natural gas prices recently crested C$2.60/mcf, and with a reasonable alignment of previously distressed NE BC Stn2 differentials, augmented by a withdrawal expected next week, view the market psyche as constructive and looking ahead, with the analogy that this market is shaping up to mirror 2012 still holding. That said, with crude oil poised to retest support levels, combined with strong stock price performance broadly observed YTD, we would characterize sentiment as slightly pessimistic in the near-term which could reduce or unwind momentum-based investment strategies that have worked thus far in 2016.

Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PWT PSK VII TOU VET WCP BNE CJ CR DEE JOY KEL LTS NVA PPY PMT PNE RRX RMP SRX SGY TOG TET ATU CKE GXE IKM LXE MQL PRQ SPE SKX TVE TVL YO ZAR

  • 29 Jun 16

ANNOUNCES TWO CONSOLIDATING SE SASKATCHEWAN ACQUISITIONS, RENEWS BANK LINE AT $150 MM

Impact: Positive. Spartan continues to capitalize on the low in the commodity cycle further consolidating its land base in SE Saskatchewan, adding low decline production and bolstering its well inventory at attractive metrics. We expect the Company balance sheet will continue to screen as flexible with ~$100 mm forecast to be drawn on its recently renewed and unchanged $150 mm credit facility following these transactions.

Companies: Spartan Energy
  • 20 May 16

Adds Mass in SE Saskatchewan, Acquires Wyatt Oil + Gas

Spartan is acquiring, privateco, Wyatt Oil + Gas Inc. for $77 mm through an all-share transaction which includes the assumption of $42 mm of debt. The deal adds 1,330 boe/d, 14.6 mm 2P reserves, 45 net sections of land and 177 drilling locations in southeast Saskatchewan which are proximal to Spartan’s existing core operations. Given our revised estimates point to 10% per share accretion on a CFPS basis while 2017e/2016e PPS share growth (debt-adjusted) jumps to 13%, we are increasing our target price to $3.75 per share.

Companies: Spartan Energy
  • 20 May 16

ANNOUNCES $77 MM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN ACQUISITION

Impact: Positive. The deal brings in production and a stable of drilling locations proximal to Spartan's current assets at a reasonable valuation. This marks the Company's first significant acquisition in ~2 years.

Companies: Spartan Energy
  • 11 May 16

SPARTAN Q1 RESULTS IN LINE TO SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN EXPECTATIONS

Neutral to slightly positive with production ~5% ahead of expectations (on higher capital spending) while cash flow overlaid our estimates. Higher 1Q16 production and mild spring break-up conditions could have positive implications for estimates for 2Q16e and beyond.

Companies: Spartan Energy
  • 11 May 16

Spartan’s 1Q16 Results In Line to Slightly Better than Expectations

Spartan delivered 1Q16 results that were in line on a cash flow basis, however ahead on a production basis. Spending was modestly higher than anticipated.

Companies: Spartan Energy
  • 26 Apr 16

Intermediates, Mid Caps & Small Caps

With this publication we briefly summarize our projections for 1Q16e quarterly results for the Junior E&P (Intermediate, Mid & Small Cap) segments of our coverage universe

Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PSK VII TOU VET WCP BNE CJ CR DEE JOY KEL LTS LRE NVA PPY PMT PNE RRX RMP SRX SGY TOG TET ATU CKE GXE IKM LXE MQL RE SPE SKX TVE TVL YGR YO ZAR

  • 16 Mar 16

Posts Solid 2015 Financial and Reserve performance, Conservative 1H16e Budget, Closes $96 mm Financing

After coming off restriction following our participation in Spartan’s $96 mm equity financing wherein the Company issued 39.9 mm shares at $2.41 per share, we summarize the Company’s 4Q15 results, 2015 reserves and 2016 capital guidance. Fourth quarter results beat both our production and cash flow estimates while the Company posted single digit 1P and 2P basis F&D costs in a relatively quiet and organic year of operations, aided by a y/y reduction in FDC. A conservative 1H16e budget of $18 - $20 mm will see volumes remain at at Spartan’s 2015 average of just over 8,850 boe/d. Our target price continues to be supported by our updated NAV methodology, offering decent returns, particularly on a risk-adjusted basis.

Companies: Spartan Energy

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Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Spartan Energy. We currently have 31 research reports from 1 professional analysts.

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  • 23 Jul 19

Quarterly Research Outlook - Summer 2019

In January, we provided a list of 11 stocks for 2019 that we believed would perform strongly with attractive catalysts that could lead to material outperformance. In this Quarterly Research Outlook, we revisit these views, analysing what has happened and how the remaining six months of the year could play out.

Companies: AMS ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CALL CSRT TIDE CYAN DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPO FST GTLY GENL GRI GEEC GKP HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR HYR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KAPE KEYS KCT KGH LAM LIT LOK MACF MANO PCA PANR PXC PHC PMO RBW RMM REDD RSW RNO RKH RBGP ROR SUS SCPA SHG SOLG SOM TWD TRAK TSG TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF

  • 20 Aug 19

Cenkos: Empyrean Energy Plc - Duyung Operational Update

Empyrean Energy has provided an update on its upcoming drilling programme in the Duyung PSC, offshore Indonesia, where the Company holds an 8.5% working interest. The two well campaign includes the Tambak-1 exploration/appraisal well, designed to appraise the central part of the Mako field and test the deeper 250Bcf Tambak prospect and the Tambak-2 appraisal well, designed as a 13.5km step out from the existing Mako South-1 gas well. Success at Tambak-2 would potentially convert some of the 392Bcf of 3C resources into 2C resources, which we value at a risked US$20.2m or 3.8p per share net to Empyrean (2C resources: US$13.6m or 2.5p per share). At a net cost of US$553-723k, the upcoming drilling campaign has the potential to deliver significant shareholder value with the minimal amount of capital expenditure. We maintain our BUY recommendation and our 33p price target.

Companies: Empyrean Energy
  • 15 Aug 19

Small Cap Feast


Companies: THR TRX KIBO VNET ALS PGR OCI JAN KRS IHC

  • 22 Aug 19

FLASH: 1H19 results

1H19 production of 3,539 boe/d had already been reported, as had net cash of US$11.2 mm at the end of June 2019. 2019 production and capex guidance are unchanged. In Egypt, the central processing facility is en route to site at South Disouq, thus achieving the second of the three key project milestones. The final milestone of first gas in 4Q19 remains on track, subject to the successful installation and hook-up of the CPF, which is scheduled to begin later in August, with the company still aiming for gross plateau production of c.50 mmcf/d by 1Q20.

Companies: Sdx Energy
  • 14 Aug 19

FLASH: On your marks, get set, GO!

The Borgland Dolphin semi-submersible drilling rig has completed its acceptance testing. It is commencing move preparations today and is expected to begin transit shortly thereafter towards the Liberator field where it will initiate drilling operations.

Companies: I3 Energy
  • 14 Aug 19

Small Cap Feast


Companies: SSY QFI SRB GFIN THR XSG LMS RENE OEX SO4

  • 02 Jul 19

Where’s the Value?

Warren Buffett once said that as an investor, it is wise to be ‘fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful’. Fear is not in short supply right now.

Companies: OPM ALU ANCR BLV CONN CRC FDL GATC HAT LEK MMH MCB MWE NXR NTBR NOG PAF PEG RFX SRC TEF TEG TPT VTU WYN XLM

  • 05 Jul 19

Small Cap Feast

ReAssure Group plc - The Group is a leading closed book life insurance consolidator in the United Kingdom with 4.3m policies, £68.7 billion of assets under administration on a Post-L&G Illustrative Basis. It is considering a premium listing segment of the main market. Voyager AIR The Company will focus on the acquisition, leasing and management of primarily widebody aircraft, with asset management services to be provided by Amedeo Limited he IPO will comprise a Placing and Offer for Subscription of Shares to raise up to approximately US$200m· IMC Exploration Group (NEX: IMCP), focused on acquiring and exploring prospecting licence areas which have high potential for natural resource, is looking to admit its shares to the standard list and will withdraw for the NEX Exchange. TBC Uniphar, a diversified healthcare services business with a workforce of over 2,000, is looking to join AIM. Raise TBC, expected mid-July 2019

Companies: SRT CHH VELA CREO ASH MIRA ECO AQX ARCM DRV

  • 09 Aug 19

Cenkos: Diversified Gas & Oil Plc - Interim Results

Yesterday, Diversified Gas & Oil (DGOC) released its 2019 interim results. H1/19 production averaged 76,000boepd, up 292% YoY and 22% from H2/18. June exit rate production exceeded 90,200boepd following the addition of c20,000boepd from the HG Energy acquisition, in line with our forecast FY2019 production figure of 82,700boepd. Net debt as of 30 June 2019 was US$613m, having paid US$52m in credit facility principal payments, with a further US$19.2m being returned to shareholders through the Company's share buyback programme. In lieu of the headwinds around the commodity prices, we have reduced our long-term NGL price forecast, reducing our 2019 EBITDA from US$308m to US$278m and our target price from 161p/share to 157p/share.

Companies: Diversified Gas & Oil
  • 19 Aug 19

Positive Feasibility Study outcome for the Tiris uranium project

Aura has now completed its feasibility Study into producing uranium (and potentially vanadium) from its Tiris deposit in Mauritania. The outcome was a viable project which is scalable, has a low All-In-Sustaining-Cost (AISC) cost at $30/lb U3O8 (compared with global peers) and most importantly has a low capital cost at $63m – particularly important in today’s unsteady capital market environment. We are firmly of the opinion that Tiris is a company maker for Aura as it moves along the next steps of optimisation and funding with a view at this stage to commission end 2020 / beginning 2021 – perfectly timed for what we perceive as a potential inflection point in the uranium price and a move to higher prices. We see additional value in Aura, we believe currently unrecognised in the market, with the large battery-metal Häggån project in Sweden and some prime greenstone belts in Mauritania which are (in our view) highly prospective for gold and base metals as limited prior exploration has shown. We currently see fair value in Aura at 3.2p/sh.

Companies: Aura Energy
  • 22 Aug 19

Cenkos: 88 Energy Ltd - A Premier Partner

88 Energy has signed a Sales and Purchase Agreement (SPA) with Premier Oil PLC (Premier), through which Premier will farm into the Western Play Fairway at Project Icewine. Under the SPA, Premier will earn a 60% operated interest by paying the full cost of the Charlie-1 appraisal well, up to a cap of US$23m, with an option to earn an additional 50% working interest on success in the Central or Eastern play fairways by spending a further US$15m. The Charlie-1 well is expected to be drilled and tested during Q1/20, penetrating multiple stacked horizons and potentially de-risking a large part of the conventional portfolio at Project Icewine. 88 Energy will retain a meaningful 30% working interest within the Western Play Fairway, containing net mean prospective resources of 720mmbls. We update our model, reducing 88 Energy's working interest across the Western Play Fairway, whilst increasing the chance of success across the Charlie-1 prospects. We reduce our price target to 2.6p (from 3.1p) and reiterate our BUY recommendation.

Companies: 88 Energy
  • 21 May 19

Leaner and meaner

We are updating our note on Getech to incorporate the 2018 actuals and 12 month figures to 31 December 2017 (restated due to a change in year end). Since our last update a month ago, the shares have fallen ~15% despite in line results (including 11% y-o-y revenue growth and 32% expansion in profit) and a recovering oil price (Brent +5% approx) which provides further long-term support for Getech’s products and services. Rolling our valuation thesis forward one year, our estimate of fair value for the shares stands at 42.5p (page 17). Getech is lean and mean and highly operationally geared to further improvements in the top line.

Companies: Getech Group
  • 02 Aug 19

Iron Ore-driven results (and dividends); time to focus on Aluminium and Copper

Thanks to material iron ore price tailwinds, Rio Tinto managed to deliver a healthy set of H1 results, despite various other issues. Moreover, by leveraging its balance sheet, the group announced record interim dividends of $3.5bn. While iron ore is (and is likely to remain) a cash cow, all eyes are now pinned on how the copper and aluminium divisions perform/recover in the coming years. After a strong ytd run-up, buying on (macro-driven) share price corrections should be apt entry opportunities.

Companies: Rio Tinto
  • 06 Aug 19

LIBERUM: Sirius Minerals* - Bond offering delayed, to return in early September

Sirius announced this morning it has suspended its bond issue until market conditions have stabilised. The bond was due to price this week, but has coincided with an escalation in the China/US trade war, a devaulation of the RMB through 7 and a smaller than anticipated cut in the Fed funds rate which combined to drive a sharp equity/commodity sell off and risk-off in high-yield markets.

Companies: Sirius Minerals
  • 13 Aug 19

Cenkos: Empyrean Energy Plc - FY2019 Results

On Friday, Empyrean Energy announced its annual results for FY19, in which it made significant progress across its diversified portfolio. In doing so, the Company has laid the foundations for what could be a transformational 12-18 months. We believe the near-term exploration and appraisal drilling of Mako in Indonesia, combined with the huge potential upside of the Jade and Topaz prospects, offshore China, make for a compelling investment case. We update our model to take into consideration the recent headwinds around the commodity prices, whilst increasing the risking at the Company's non-core projects at Riverbend and the Eagle Oil Pool, we maintain our 33p price target.

Companies: Empyrean Energy