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We are discontinuing research coverage of Spartan Energy, as the stock has been delisted following its recently approved acquisition by Vermilion Energy. All prior production and financial estimates, as well as research ratings and target prices, must no longer be relied upon.
Spartan Energy
Management reported annual production of 22,200 boe/d, which is largely in line with our estimates of 22,125 boe/d and represents y/y PPS growth of 17%. This results in 4Q17 production of 22,636 boe/d, which is relatively flat QoQ but slightly ahead of our estimates of 22,340 boe/d. The company reported quarterly adjusted funds flow from operations of $65 mm ($0.35/sh dil), which was significantly ahead of our estimates of $57 mm ($0.31/sh dil) and consensus at ~$0.31/share. We don’t have the full financials yet leaving us to speculate on the reason for the large cash flow beat. Our guess at this juncture is better than forecasted realized light oil pricing and operating costs but we await the release of the audited statements in the middle of March. Reserves increased 2% on a PDP basis to 45.3 mmboe, 5% on a 1P basis to 73 mmboe and 4% on a 2P basis to 113.5 mmboe. PDP reserves made up 62% of 1P and 40% of 2P reserves, which is relatively flat y/y. Based on 2017 production, this represents a 2P RLI of 13.9 years. We have updated our model to reflect 2017YE results and reserves. With our current 2018 estimates in line with management’s 2018 guidance, we have not made any changes to our forecasts. With an implied return of 72%, we are maintaining our BUY rating.
Spartan plans for 2018 E&D spending of $183 million plus $22 million for discretionary spending on waterflood and seismic initiatives. The 2018 drilling program calls for 140 net development oil wells including 64 net open-hole wells, 29 net Ratcliffe wells, 30 net frac’d Midale, and the remaining to the Viking light oil play. Management expects this to result in average annual production of 23,400 boe/d and an exit rate of 25,000 boe/d, representing growth of 6% YoY and 11% exit to exit. Average production was below our prior estimate of 24,270 boe/d and consensus of 24,470 boe/d. However, 2018 exit rate guidance aligned with our prior 4Q18 forecast of 25,100 boe/d. Based on US$60/b WTI, management forecasts cash flow of $267 million ($1.51/sh), which is higher than our prior estimates of $1.35/sh ($1.40/sh on strip) and consensus of $1.28/sh. We attribute this largely to 2018e production expense guided at $16.65/boe vs. GMP FE at $17.35/boe. We have updated our estimates to reflect the 2018 guidance. With an implied projected return of 42%, we are maintaining our BUY rating.
The stocks on the GMP FirstEnergy Best Ideas List represent our highest conviction BUY recommendations with an expected return of 20% or more over the next 12 months. The investment thesis for each name on the list is laid out in this report.
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3Q17 production of 22,630 boe/d was slightly ahead of our GMP FEestimate of 21,750 boe/d and the street estimate of 21,730 boe/d. Quarterly cash flow of $41.1 mm ($0.22/sh dil) was in line with ourestimates of $40.1 mm ($0.22/share dil) and consensus of $0.21/share. Production costs in the quarter were down 6% QoQ and were 5% belowour estimates ($17.28/boe vs GMPFE estimates of $18.15/boe). This is due to the fact that production costs were elevated in 2Q17 so it was positive to see the reduction to more normalized levels. Reported realized pricing look like it came in a bit light at $46.98/boe vs. GMP FE at $48.12/boe. The company spent $35.1 mm on E&D, which included drilling 39 (28 net) wells and bringing on-stream 37 (27.2 net) wells. SPE exited the quarter with net debt (ex. financial lease) of $205.1 mm (1.3x annualized 3Q CF) and $193.3 mm drawn on its $350 mm credit facility. We have updated our estimates to reflect quarterly results. With an implied projected return of 37%, we are maintaining our BUY rating.
Impact: Neutral. Spartan's 2Q16 financial results were consistent with our outlook on all key figures and inline with consensus cash flow estimates.
Impact: Neutral. Spartan's most recent acquisition continues to consolidate its land position at its key properties and build inventory in SE Saskatchewan at reasonable metrics. The Company's updated 2016e capital budget of $68 mm is cautiously below our prior view (FCC was $80 mm) and is expected to generate annual production of 10,700 boe/d (FCC was 11,000 boe/d) which will likely result in a minor reduction to our proforma production and cash flow outlook. Although we expect this acquisition and financing announcement, in isolation, would show as slightly dilutive to our CFPS outlook given financing proceeds well above the transaction price, recall, the Company has completed three meaningfully accretive transactions ($148.7 mm for 2,980 boe/d) since mid-May without concurrent equity issues.
Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly reversed into summer, market likely to ignore financials for natural gas producers and look ahead to winter and formalization of sell-side 2018e estimates in coming months. Spot AECO natural gas prices recently crested C$2.60/mcf, and with a reasonable alignment of previously distressed NE BC Stn2 differentials, augmented by a withdrawal expected next week, view the market psyche as constructive and looking ahead, with the analogy that this market is shaping up to mirror 2012 still holding. That said, with crude oil poised to retest support levels, combined with strong stock price performance broadly observed YTD, we would characterize sentiment as slightly pessimistic in the near-term which could reduce or unwind momentum-based investment strategies that have worked thus far in 2016.
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Impact: Positive. Spartan continues to capitalize on the low in the commodity cycle further consolidating its land base in SE Saskatchewan, adding low decline production and bolstering its well inventory at attractive metrics. We expect the Company balance sheet will continue to screen as flexible with ~$100 mm forecast to be drawn on its recently renewed and unchanged $150 mm credit facility following these transactions.
Spartan is acquiring, privateco, Wyatt Oil + Gas Inc. for $77 mm through an all-share transaction which includes the assumption of $42 mm of debt. The deal adds 1,330 boe/d, 14.6 mm 2P reserves, 45 net sections of land and 177 drilling locations in southeast Saskatchewan which are proximal to Spartan’s existing core operations. Given our revised estimates point to 10% per share accretion on a CFPS basis while 2017e/2016e PPS share growth (debt-adjusted) jumps to 13%, we are increasing our target price to $3.75 per share.
Impact: Positive. The deal brings in production and a stable of drilling locations proximal to Spartan's current assets at a reasonable valuation. This marks the Company's first significant acquisition in ~2 years.
Spartan delivered 1Q16 results that were in line on a cash flow basis, however ahead on a production basis. Spending was modestly higher than anticipated.
Neutral to slightly positive with production ~5% ahead of expectations (on higher capital spending) while cash flow overlaid our estimates. Higher 1Q16 production and mild spring break-up conditions could have positive implications for estimates for 2Q16e and beyond.
With this publication we briefly summarize our projections for 1Q16e quarterly results for the Junior E&P (Intermediate, Mid & Small Cap) segments of our coverage universe
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After coming off restriction following our participation in Spartan’s $96 mm equity financing wherein the Company issued 39.9 mm shares at $2.41 per share, we summarize the Company’s 4Q15 results, 2015 reserves and 2016 capital guidance. Fourth quarter results beat both our production and cash flow estimates while the Company posted single digit 1P and 2P basis F&D costs in a relatively quiet and organic year of operations, aided by a y/y reduction in FDC. A conservative 1H16e budget of $18 - $20 mm will see volumes remain at at Spartan’s 2015 average of just over 8,850 boe/d. Our target price continues to be supported by our updated NAV methodology, offering decent returns, particularly on a risk-adjusted basis.
Impact: Positive. The Company's single digit F&D cost performance on both a 1P and 2P basis should rank amongst the best of its light oil peer group. Additionally the Company has outlined a conservative $18-20 mm budget for 1H16e which will see volumes remain flat at its 2015e average (8,866 boe/d) which looks well at hand particularly given corporate production so far in February has been ~ 9,300 boe/d.
With this publication we highlight forecast revisions associated with our crude oil commodity price update. Concurrent within a dynamic time for E&Ps, some of which have already begun the process of 2016 capital budget downdrafts, revised estimates attempt to directionally capture a shift towards capital conservation, though severely weakened futures curves have influenced our thinking for the better part of 6 months anyway. We expect further capital investment reductions forthcoming from E&Ps in the coming weeks.
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Impact: Neutral, as 4Q15 production matches our forecast while Management's postulation of keeping volumes flat y/y in 2016e via a cash flow budget (US $40.00/bbl crude) should not be a surprise to the market given prior corporate presentation sensitivities.
“Worse? How could they get any worse? Take a look around you, Ellen. We’re at the threshold of hell”. These are the words spoken by Clark Gris-wold in the holiday classic “Christmas Vacation”, and seem aptly suited for the general sentiment in the Canadian energy space at the moment as we roll out a summary of our regular forecast revisions extending from our most recent crude oil and natural gas price forecast update.
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Impact: Positive. Spartan's 3Q15 financial results were in-line with our thinking on all key measures. Additionally, the Company has elected to protect its pristine balance sheet in this depressed commodity environment by deferring ~15% of its previously planned capital expenditures with no corresponding reduction to its annual corporate production guidance of 8,700 boe/d or exit target of 9,100 boe/d.
With this publication we briefly summarize our projections for 3Q15e quarterly results for our Junior E&P (Intermediate, Mid & Small Cap) coverage universe. Within the backdrop of continued weakness in the commodity price complex that saw the retrenchment of crude oil pricing during the quarter, after what was a short lived rally during the second quarter, we are anticipating yet another lacklustre reporting period in the Junior E&P space, with the key themes coming out of the quarter likely to be centered on further reductions to capital programs, ongoing takeaway capacity constraints, potential dividend cuts, reduced bank lines from fall credit reviews, continued weakness in the Station 2 and CREC natural gas price markers, and for some, the rollout of formal 2016e budgets.
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With this publication we are formally rolling out our 2017e forecasts for the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups, which accompanies our regularly scheduled crude oil and natural gas price forecast update. Less than a month removed from making major revisions to our crude oil price outlook in an interim update, this time around only minor changes to our commodity price outlook have been noted, leaving our initial glimpse into 2017e forecasts as the main takeaway in this publication.
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Impact: Slightly Positive. Spartan's technical work and drilling results to date have helped solidify a low-risk, multi-year drilling inventory throughout SE Saskatchewan of open-hole locations that are expected to deliver top tier half-cycle economics featuring IRRs of up to ~96% and payout in just over a year within the current commodity environment. Recent drilling results have also confirmed 2 of 3 new play concepts the Company is testing in Queensdale, which have previously had zero reserves attributed to them.
With this publication we highlight forecast revisions stemming from an interim commodity price update centered around the crude oil pricing complex. Moves for crude oil weighted producers are significant, with 2016e cash flows down 12%-15%, and portended NAVs reduced sizably on the employment of a materially lower terminal value within the scope of the forecast period, though not reflective of the potential attrition in E&D capital investment and dividend policy should the current forward strip come to fruition in the cash market.
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Within this publication we summarize changes to forward estimates coming off of the reporting of second quarter financial and operating results, highlighting equity price movements and a few valuation comparatives through to the end of 2016e.
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Spartan reported 2Q15 fi nancial results that were generally in line with our forecast on both a production and cash fl ow basis, while spending less than anticipated. Consistent with Spartan’s strategy of matching capital expenditures to internally generated cash fl ow, in light of further weakness observed in the commodity price environment, the Company’s has revised its 2015e capital budget to $85 mm (from $105 mm prior) with a corresponding decrease to its annual production to 8,700 boe/d (from 9,200 boe/d prior).
Impact: Neutral. Spartan's 2Q15 financial results were in line with our forecast for the period, while the Company's revised 2015e capital budget to $85 mm (from $105 mm prior), and corresponding decrease to its annual production to 8,700 boe/d (from 9,200 boe/d prior), is consistent with Spartan's strategy of matching capital expenditures to internally generated cash flow in light of further weakness observed in the commodity price environment.
With this publication we briefly summarize our projections for 2Q15e quarterly results for our Junior E&P (Intermediate, Mid & Small Cap) coverage universe. In what could be viewed as the “Perfect Storm”, we are anticipating yet another weak reporting period in the Junior E&P space as continued deterioration of the commodity price complex will surely influence 2H15e capital investment plans, exacerbated by ongoing takeaway capacity constraints that have resulted in rolling shut-ins for many of the names that we cover, within the backdrop of an uncertain fiscal regime in Alberta in the interim. Typically the second quarter is already a relatively quiet period to begin with in terms of activity in the field due to the onset of spring breakup, though with most shuttering operations early in late February motivated in part to extract service cost deflation in a volatile pricing environment, activity specific to 2Q15e should be muted.
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With this publication we provide our regular forecast revisions stemming from our quarterly commodity price update for both the crude oil and natural gas pricing complex. All told, we see only modest moves in the near term to our pricing streams with our longer term view largely intact. Given the current state of commodity prices from an oversupply of both crude oil and natural gas, the kick off of summer, ongoing restrictions on TCPL’s NGTL system, and the recent election of an NDP majority government, we anticipate the market to trade sideways from here for the next few months until further certainty is obtained in the fall as to the direction of commodity prices along with any potential changes to the royalty structure in Alberta. We had anticipated to see an active M&A market by now that would pick up even further heading into the back half of the year, although in reality see this as somewhat sterilized until further clarity is obtained on the NDP’s energy policies.
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Spartan reported its 1Q15 financial results featuring production, capital spending and cash flow that were generally consistent with our thinking. As a result, the Company’s balance sheet remains one of the strongest of its oil weighted peers exiting the period with net debt reflective of 0.4x its $250 mm line of credit or 1.8x trailing cash flow (1.3x forward strip).
Impact: Neutral. Spartan's 1Q15 financial results were consistent with our estimates for production, capital expenditures and cash flow, and there are no changes to its formal guidance levels at this juncture.
