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Interim results to 30 June reflected a step-up in research activity post-June fundraise as it seeks to take its first pre|CISION targeted chemotherapy into clinical trials in early 2021. With period-end cash of £54.5m, Avacta has a cash runway into 2023, providing the necessary working capital to deliver a rapid SARS-CoV2 antigen test, take AVA6000 into the clinic, as well as its first Affimer immunotherapy and the next pre|CISION pro-drug into the clinic. Avacta is aiming to have validated its rapid SARS-CoV-2 antigen test in Q4 2020, the exact timing of which is dependent on pilot batch product from BBI Solutions. However, it is increasingly clear that there is a need for mass screening tests to isolate and remove infectious people, with Avacta’s test at the forefront. We have made changes to FY 2020 forecasts, introduce FY 2021 forecasts and a target price of 310p with a range of 211-796p.
Companies: Avacta Group Plc
Full-year results to 31 May 2020 deliver revenue of £15.0m (+10.3%) and EBITDA of £6.8m (+36.0%) as noted at the acquisition of Quantuma Advisory. We continue to believe a key value driver of owning K3 shares is an investor’s exposure to the positive disruption being wrought by the company’s model, which now has the ability to be applied to synergistic markets across the addressable professional services SME sector as a result of the two recent acquisitions. The already proven restructuring and insolvency practice specifically has the potential to deliver significant upside in the current environment. We reiterate our estimates, noting EPS growth of 63% between 2020A and 2023E. Target price remains 300p, offering 100% upside from the placing price of 150p.
Companies: K3 Capital Group Plc
FY20 results reflect a year of trading in-line with earlier expectations, until being significantly interrupted in Q4/20 by the impact of Covid-19. Despite this, 1pm remained profitable throughout, despite accepting forbearance requests and prudently lifting bad debt provisions for the future. Post-period, there has been a noticeable pick-up in trading as the UK economy recovers, which 1pm is currently positioning itself for. A P/TNAV of 0.55x materially undervalues 1pm, hence we remain at “Buy”.
Companies: 1pm Plc
H120 adjusted EBITDA of £9.1m was the main positive surprise for us in Ergomed’s full interim report released today. We have increased our adjusted EBITDA forecasts to £18.3m (up 8.6%) in 2020 and £20.1m (up 6.8%) in 2021. A strong order book (£151.4m, up 22.0% from the end of 2019) with high visibility into 2021, continued overall business growth and a strong balance sheet should allow Ergomed to successfully navigate the COVID-19 pandemic, invest in organic growth and look for potential strategic acquisitions. Our valuation is upgraded to £409m or 845p/share.
Companies: Ergomed Plc
Positive EBITDA in FY20A was a major milestone. Investment across the business is up and there is a clear strategy in place to deliver value for shareholders. The balance sheet is strong post the placing and the business is now self-sustaining. In light of this Rosslyn trades on an unwarranted discount to the software sector.
Companies: Rosslyn Data Technologies Plc
Open Orphan has announced a new £4.3m contract to conduct a Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) human viral challenge study. The customer is a top 10 global vaccine company which continues to demonstrate the attractiveness of the hVIVO assets and the Group's increasing ability to attract business from the largest vaccine and pharmaceutical players in the world. Buy.
Companies: Open Orphan Plc
Keywords Studios has again showed the resilience of its model in H120, delivering 8% l-f-l revenue growth, 19% adjusted EBITDA growth and 17% adjusted EPS growth despite the impact of COVID-19. Adjusted EBITDA margins of 17.8% have held up better than we expected. Looking ahead, we see sustained industry growth, led by the console transition in Q420, with publishers increasingly recognising the resilience Keywords adds to their development processes. Following its third acquisition of the year, we see management once more focusing on M&A with net cash of €101m. Keywords’ strategy, which has delivered a five-year EPS CAGR of 42%, appears sustainable, with dividend payments to be resumed in FY21. As such, we believe that the shares remain set for continued appreciation.
Companies: Keywords Studios Plc
H1 was very challenging for NAHL due to COVID-19 but, demonstrating its resilience, the group remained profitable and free cash flow increased strongly. As a result, net debt reduced from £21.0m at December 2019 to £18.5m at June 2020. New banking covenants have been agreed and the £25m facility term extended by a year to 31 December 2022. Since the end of June the group has observed an increased demand for its services and, in August, personal injury enquiry volumes recovered to c.70% of prior year. While the potential for further lockdowns makes the short-term outlook uncertain, we continue to believe that with prudent management of short-term cash flow, NAHL can trade through the current challenges with its long-term potential undiminished.
Companies: NAHL Group Plc
Timing is everything when it comes to innovation. Too early, and even ground-breaking technology can struggle to gain traction. Too late, and the opportunity might be lost. A tricky balance. However for Rosslyn Data Tech, we think this ‘battle-hardened’, cash-rich (Est Apr’21 net funds of £6.1m) & now profitable SaaS firm is ideally placed to benefit from strong secular demand for its cutting-edge & fully integrated Big Data, AI, spend analytics, SMDM (Supplier Master Data Management) & customs/duty handling applications.
Driver Group has announced a strategic partnership with Africa’s leading claims and dispute resolution consultancy, EVRA Consulting (click here), which is headquartered in Johannesburg. The partnership combines Driver’s higher margin Diales services with EVRA’s relationships and network to bring the benefits of Expert commissions to clients across the African continent. The joint offering will give Driver access to 54 national markets across Africa. Additionally, the Group has strengthened its Middle East team, with the appointment of David Merritt, a well-known Quantum Expert with over 35 years’ experience in the construction and engineering sectors. Today’s announcement is in line with the Group’s strategy to expand its high margin Diales services, alongside diversifying into new geographies. Management guidance continues to be suspended and our forecasts therefore remain withdrawn.
Companies: Driver Group Plc
Following a number of recent contracts wins GYG’s order book now stands at record levels, which we believe should give investors confidence in current forecasts. We leave our published numbers unchanged at this juncture but believe our assumptions to be well underpinned by increasing trading momentum backed by the record order book, coupled with efficiencies and cost savings evident in the H1 margin trends.
Companies: GYG Plc
Frenkel Topping has acquired 6% of the share capital of NAHL and NAHL has confirmed that it has received an approach from Frenkel Topping proposing an all share combination. The Board of NAHL is considering the proposal. We move our recommendation from sell to neutral.
Open Orphan has announced that hVIVO has signed a new contract for an RSV human challenge study clinical trial with a top 3 global pharmaceutical company. The contract shows the Group's ability to convert the existing hVIVO pipeline and engage with the top customers in the industry providing great encouragement for investors in the medium term. Reiterate Buy
Against a backdrop of global economic turbulence driven by COVID-19, Bango’s H1 20A results confirm robust growth in End User Spend (“EUS”) and revenues, alongside record EBITDA and a solid improvement in operating cash flow. Execution in the payments business remains strong, and growth in Bango Marketplace in our view demonstrates the group’s increasing traction in data monetisation. The outlook statement is positive, and we make no changes to underlying estimates following the announcement. Overall, we continue to believe that momentum remains strong, and that the group is well placed to deliver its FY 20E targets.
Companies: Bango Plc
RBG Holdings had H1 revenues of £12.0m, up 17% against H1’19, of which £11.7m came from the Group’s law firm, RBL. On a LfL basis (excl. £2m of discretionary gains from litigation assets in H1’19), Group revenues were up c.46% YoY. EBITDA of £2.6m offers still-compelling margins of 22%. Transaction delays in Convex and a period of investment in LionFish held back ST performance for these higher margin divisions, yet pipelines remain healthy for Convex. Management is bullish on its ability in H2 to divest litigation assets in order to fund new investment, and in line with strategy. Continued uncertainty over timings around Convex transactions completing, and COVID headwinds, means we keep forecasts withdrawn, however suggest an intrinsic value of 90p is comfortably achievable for the shares.
Companies: RBG Holdings Plc