Stifel FirstEnergy Morning Research Package

PrairieSky Royalty (PSK‐TSX); HOLD, C$15.50 ― Solid Q4: raising production forecasts, but reducing target & rating due to lower oil prices

Stifel FirstEnergy Morning Research Package

Calfrac Well Services (CFW-TSX); HOLD, C$1.50 | PrairieSky Royalty (PSK-TSX); BUY, C$17.50

Stifel FirstEnergy Morning Research Package

Enbridge (ENB-TSX); BUY, C$62.00 | Gibson Energy (GEI-TSX); BUY, C$30.00 | PrairieSky Royalty (PSK-TSX); BUY, C$17.50

PSK reports a solid 3Q18 update - BUY

Q3 CFPS of $0.28 (dil.) was in line with consensus, as was production, which was up 2% Q/Q (liquids up 1% Q/Q). Management continues to expect oil production to grow in Q4. We have nudged our ‘19e/’20e CFPS estimates down 2%/3%, on reductions to oil forecasts, partly offset by increased NGLs forecasts. TP lowered by $0.50 to $29.00/share, reflecting the average calculated Atax NPV5 of our new DCF model at our deck and the strip.

2Q16 Update

2Q16 net production was flat sequentially but better than expected, while cash flow missed our forecasts by $0.01/share as gas price realizations were weak due to accrual adjustments for the prior quarter. In our view the shares appear reasonably valued in the context of other oil & gas royalty peers. $29.00/share target price unchanged, but we are upgrading to Outperform.

2Q16e Quarterly Preview

Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly rev

2Q16 RESULTS

Market Impact: Neutral. Funds flow of $0.19/share was slightly behind our $0.20/share estimate, which was also the survey median. Relative to our estimates, realized prices for natural gas were weaker than expected (actual $0.67/mcf, FirstEnergy $1.25/mcf), which more than offset higher than expected net production, which once again benefitted significantly from positive prior period adjustments.

$25 MM ACQUISITION OF ROYALTY ASSETS

PrairieSky purchased the royalty assets that Pine Cliff Energy (TSX: PNE, covered by analyst Michael Hearn) announced on Monday that it was selling for $25 mm. PNE's Based on PNE's press release, PSK paid ~9.3x run rate EBITDAX of $2.7 mm ($2.7 mm royalty revenue expected over the next 12 months, assuming current commodity prices remain flat), which, assuming a low decline rate, seems quite reasonable and accretive to PSK.

High Margin Business With Multiple Layers of Torque

From recent lows, we see PSK offering three factors of one-sided torque to increased commodity prices: price, drilling activity, and sliding scale royalty rates. We believe all three of these factors have bottomed and are likely to move higher over time. If not, PSK can still fund its recently revised dividend at strip pricing without drawing on cash.

Intermediates, Mid Caps & Small Caps

With this publication we briefly summarize our projections for 1Q16e quarterly results for the Junior E&P (Intermediate, Mid & Small Cap) segments of our coverage universe

1Q16 RESULTS

Market Impact: Neutral. Cash flow came in slightly ahead of expectations, primarily due to prior period adjustments.

4Q15 Update

4Q15 cash flow of $60.0 mm beat expectations ($23 mm tax recovery). Production of 17,651 boe/d beat expectations. We estimate pro-forma 4Q15 clean production including the CNRL assets was ~21,250 boe/d. Management expects cash flow at the strip over the next 12 months to fully fund the dividend (~$164 mm/year), which was cut by 45%. 2016 G&A costs are expected to be flat vs. 2015. We have increased our 2016e production forecast by 2% to 21,034 boe/d, and our cash flow estimate by 8% to $177 mm (

4Q15 CASH FLOW BEATS DUE TO TAX RECOVERY - DIVIDEND CUT 45%

Market Impact: Positive given PSK's financial position is better than expected. 4Q15 cash flow beat expectations, primarily due to a $23 mm current tax recovery. As expected, the dividend was cut, by 45%, and the DRIP and stock dividend program were suspended.

Intermediate/Mid/Small Cap Commodity Price Update Impact

With this publication we highlight forecast revisions associated with our crude oil commodity price update. Concurrent within a dynamic time for E&Ps, some of which have already begun the process of 2016 capital budget downdrafts, revised estimates attempt to directionally capture a shift towards capital conservation, though severely weakened futures curves have influenced our thinking for the better part of 6 months anyway. We expect further capital investment reductions forthcoming from E&Ps i

New Commodity Price Outlook Impact

“Worse? How could they get any worse? Take a look around you, Ellen. We’re at the threshold of hell”. These are the words spoken by Clark Gris-wold in the holiday classic “Christmas Vacation”, and seem aptly suited for the general sentiment in the Canadian energy space at the moment as we roll out a summary of our regular forecast revisions extending from our most recent crude oil and natural gas price forecast update.

Morning Note – 7 October 2024

PANMURE LIBERUM: UK Asset & Wealth Management: Farewell to Summer

IXICO - AI powered neuroimaging platform

IXICO is an AI-driven medical imaging analytics company focused on supporting biopharmaceutical companies develop their neurological drug candidates. The key aim of IXICO’s platform is to support pharma in their efforts to develop targeted drugs (beyond the classical markers) and to develop partnerships with various stakeholders to enable post-marketing patient access, payor savings and large data monitoring. The company’s expanded focus is on Alzheimer's, Parkinson's and Huntington's diseases a

Morning Note – 9 October 2024

Morning Note – 30 September 2024

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 7 October 2024

* A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced, or it is a rumour ***Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement ****Alphabetically arranged Share prices and market capitalisations taken from the current price on the day of publication Dish of the day Admissions: None Delistings: None What’s baking in the oven? ITF announced:*** Potential** Initial Public Offerings: 30th September 2024: Applied Nutrition, the sports nutrition, health

SP Angel Morning View: Iron ore limit up as China stimulates further over the weekend, boosting sentiment

Hardman & Co Insight: Survival of the UK life sciences sector

For two years running, the Hardman & Co Healthcare index has declined, underperforming both the FTSE 100 and the FTSE All-Share indices. This is quite unusual for healthcare stocks. Apart from the general economic influences, which have made institutions more risk-averse, there was a common knowledge that several companies were in need of additional working capital; so, share prices were marked down in anticipation of equity raises. However, the small- and mid-cap life sciences sector has alway

City of London Investment Group (CLIG): Good fund performance and solid results

City of London has announced its full-year results for 2024. As stated in the trading statement, FUM was $10.24bn, a 9% increase over the year. While market performance offset net outflows, there was a significant improvement in the latter in the second half, which bodes well going forward. Underlying profit before tax of $27.2m was a 0.5% increase over 2023’s $27.0m. A higher effective tax rate meant that underlying EPS declined 3% from 43.4¢ to 42.2¢. As previously announced, the final dividen

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 4 October 2024

Dish of the day Admissions: None Delistings: None What’s baking in the oven? ITF announced:*** Potential** Initial Public Offerings: 30th September 2024: Applied Nutrition, the sports nutrition, health and wellness brand announced that it is considering an £500m IPO onto the LSE Main Market. Across the four ranges, the Group sells approximately 100 different products, with flavour and format combinations across those products resulting in over 500 stock keeping units. July 2024 YE numbers report

Allenby Capital TMT Update - 23.09.24 - TRAK.L, CODE.L, KOO.L

Please find below our weekly update covering themes that we feel that are of interest to investors and participants in the small and mid-cap TMT sector as well as commentary on recent newsflow.

Hardman & Co Insight: 2023 was an annus horribilis for Quoted UK Infrastructure and Renewable Energy

The focus of Hardman & Co Research is on the nine quoted Infrastructure Investment Companies (IICs) and on the 22 Renewable Energy Infrastructure Funds (REIFs): the stocks analysed are all members of the Association of Investment Companies (AIC). We are updating our publication of January 2023, assessing both the lacklustre share price performances during 2023 and the key issues, including interest rates, inflation and power prices. As a 31-strong group, its combined market capitalisation is no

City of London Investment Group (CLIG LN) - Momentum swing underway

CLIG’s full year results to June 2024 are inline with our forecasts, set in February 2024. The annual report and accounts provides evidence of “compelling reasons for institutional asset allocators to choose an active manager.” CLIG’s outperformance of its benchmarks should drive net inflows.

Lack of newsflow on factory funding impacts sentiment

Operating losses increasing faster than expected H1 operating losses were EUR20m vs -EUR15m expected. RandD expenses were up 43% with headcount expanding. Sales and Marketing expenses were up 87% with Carbios now in a position to address all key geographies. Finally, GandA was up 46% due the rollout of a new enterprise resource planning (ERP) software. Net income was -EUR18m and the gross cash position at the end of H1 was EUR144m, down from EUR192m the year before. Longlaville plant construct

Tickled pink with record Q1