COMPANY DESCRIPTION: DATA Communications Management Corp. (“DCM” or “the Company”) is a Canadian-based communications and marketing solutions provider that offers comprehensive online and offline communications and marketing solutions to businesses. Its technology-enabled content and workflow management capabilities solve the complex branding, communications, logistics, and regulatory requirements of Canada’s leading enterprises. Its services include custom loyalty programs, data and content management, location-specific marketing, labels and asset tracking, multimedia campaign management, and workflow management. Q3/2021 FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS: (1) Q3/2021 Revenue In-line as COVID-19 Impact Continues. Revenue was $56.9M, up 3.1% from $55.2M in Q2/2021 but down 8.2% from our estimate of $62.0M. The Company reported that certain clients deferred expenditures on services, and supply chain issues caused some potential business to be delayed into Q4/2021 or 2022. (2) Strong Cash Flow Pays Down Debt. Adjusted EBITDA was $9.4M and debt in the quarter was reduced by $2.8M. DCM also announced that it refinanced various debt and credit facilities, which should save the Company approximately $1.5M in interest expense in 2022. (3) Continues to Execute on its “Digital-First” Strategy. Recent wins include a deployment of ASMBL to a Canadian retailer and DCMFlex™ to a U.S. multi-state cannabis operator. (4) Low Valuation Multiple Compared to Peers. DCM is currently trading at 0.5x 2022 EV/Revenue compared with printer comps trading at 1.3x EV/Revenue and well below the Digital Asset Management (DAM) & Tech-Enabled Workflow providers in the range of 2.6x to 7.1x EV/Revenue. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS & VALUATION: (A) With the lower Revenue in Q3/2021, we decreased our 2021 Revenue estimate to $238.7M from $245.0M and adjusted our 2022 Revenue estimate to $246.1M from $252.4M. (B) We are keeping the revenue multiple at 0.8x and the EBITDA multiple at 7.0x, but we shifted the model one quarter forward, which positively affected the valuation. (C) We estimate an equal-weighted price target of $3.74 based on a Discount Cash Flow (DCF) valuation ($6.00/share), a Revenue Multiple valuation ($3.03/share), and an EBITDA Multiple valuation ($2.20/share). (D) We are maintaining a Buy rating and increasing the one-year price target to $3.75 from $3.60.

24 Nov 2021
Q3 Financials In-line as Consolidation Improves Cash Flow

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Q3 Financials In-line as Consolidation Improves Cash Flow
- Published:
24 Nov 2021 -
Author:
Chris Thompson -
Pages:
19 -
COMPANY DESCRIPTION: DATA Communications Management Corp. (“DCM” or “the Company”) is a Canadian-based communications and marketing solutions provider that offers comprehensive online and offline communications and marketing solutions to businesses. Its technology-enabled content and workflow management capabilities solve the complex branding, communications, logistics, and regulatory requirements of Canada’s leading enterprises. Its services include custom loyalty programs, data and content management, location-specific marketing, labels and asset tracking, multimedia campaign management, and workflow management. Q3/2021 FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS: (1) Q3/2021 Revenue In-line as COVID-19 Impact Continues. Revenue was $56.9M, up 3.1% from $55.2M in Q2/2021 but down 8.2% from our estimate of $62.0M. The Company reported that certain clients deferred expenditures on services, and supply chain issues caused some potential business to be delayed into Q4/2021 or 2022. (2) Strong Cash Flow Pays Down Debt. Adjusted EBITDA was $9.4M and debt in the quarter was reduced by $2.8M. DCM also announced that it refinanced various debt and credit facilities, which should save the Company approximately $1.5M in interest expense in 2022. (3) Continues to Execute on its “Digital-First” Strategy. Recent wins include a deployment of ASMBL to a Canadian retailer and DCMFlex™ to a U.S. multi-state cannabis operator. (4) Low Valuation Multiple Compared to Peers. DCM is currently trading at 0.5x 2022 EV/Revenue compared with printer comps trading at 1.3x EV/Revenue and well below the Digital Asset Management (DAM) & Tech-Enabled Workflow providers in the range of 2.6x to 7.1x EV/Revenue. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS & VALUATION: (A) With the lower Revenue in Q3/2021, we decreased our 2021 Revenue estimate to $238.7M from $245.0M and adjusted our 2022 Revenue estimate to $246.1M from $252.4M. (B) We are keeping the revenue multiple at 0.8x and the EBITDA multiple at 7.0x, but we shifted the model one quarter forward, which positively affected the valuation. (C) We estimate an equal-weighted price target of $3.74 based on a Discount Cash Flow (DCF) valuation ($6.00/share), a Revenue Multiple valuation ($3.03/share), and an EBITDA Multiple valuation ($2.20/share). (D) We are maintaining a Buy rating and increasing the one-year price target to $3.75 from $3.60.