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    VALDOR TECHNOLOGY INTERNATIO

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    VALDOR TECHNOLOGY INTERNATIO

  • 11 Apr 19

Quarterly Research Outlook

We’re just over three months in to 2019 and we’ve seen a 10% UK market rally, retracing much of the Q4 decline, such is the nature of fickle market sentiment. That said, many of the issues we wrote about three months ago that were impacting markets remain: notably Brexit, trade wars, geopolitics and global monetary policy. The 2019 rally thus far feels somewhat fragile, with competing forces of optimism on a potential trade deal which could underpin the rally, against the deterioration in underlying economic data that could ultimately undermine the recent market gains. In this context, we look at what the lead indicators and the market are telling us about the industrial cycle and the stocks most exposed to various industrial trends. The Q4 derating in short cycle industrials and autos had been vicious and while these sectors have seen a more solid footing in 2019, with earnings downgrades being priced in, it will likely take a trough in lead indicators before short cycle stocks can start to perform again and re-rate relative to the market.

Companies: ARS CYAN HYR LIT SOM ABBY AMS AMER ANX ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CALL CSRT TIDE DTG DEMG EMR FPO FST GTLY GENL GOR GRI GEEC HDY HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO INDI JHD JOG KEYS KCT KGH LAM LOK MACF MNO MANO MOD MKLW OXIG PCA PANR PARK PGM PHC PMO RBW RMM REDD RSW RNO RKH RBGP ROR SUS SCPA SHG SOLG TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF

  • 21 May 19

Innovative contract win in the Netherlands

Amino has announced its first deployment of AminoTV on a multitenant platform, with multi-Service Operators (“MSOs”) Delta and Caiway in the Netherlands. We see a number of positive messages in the announcement. In our view the contract demonstrates the flexibility and scalability of the AminoTV platform. It also evidences the group’s ability to leverage existing client relationships and deliver transformational IPTV migrations for customers. Deployment has already commenced and we note that Caiway and Delta have a sizeable customer base. With no immediate detail on the contract size and potential value to Amino, we leave estimates unchanged following the announcement.

Companies: Amino Technologies
  • 17 May 19

SP Angel – Oil & Gas View

Block Energy (BLOE): Result of £12 million Placing | Cairn Energy (CNE): AGM Statement | Falcon Oil & Gas (FOG): Proposed $10 million Placing | Lekoil (LEK): Resignation of CFO | Ophir Energy (OPHR): Sale of Mexico licence | SDX Energy (SDX): Q1 Results | UK Oil & Gas (UKOG): Production Test Update

Companies: BLOE CNE FOG LEK OPHR SDX UKOG

  • 23 May 19

Indian election implies risk reduced; Reiterate Buy

We believe the Indian Federal election result implies an improving risk profile for CyanConnode’s operations in its key market. Incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party, BJP, is due to retain power, which we believe improves the likelihood that energy policy will not materially change. In our view, this supports CyanConnode’s ambitions in the country. On our projections, India is expected to account for the majority of group revenue, midterm. The shares have performed poorly YTD despite evidence of commercial momentum and a broadly inline set of FY18 results. We believe the risk-reward proposition is currently particularly compelling and reiterate our Buy rating on CyanConnode.

Companies: Cyanconnode
  • 16 May 19

LIBERUM: SigmaRoc* - Building a track record

SigmaRoc's second year of operation extends its track record of significantly improving the profitability of acquired businesses. It improved EBITDA at Ronez by 37% in its first full year and later acquisitions of Allen and Poundfield showed 30% better EBITDA in 2018.

Companies: Sigmaroc
  • 13 May 19

Solid growth in FY18; forecasts unchanged

2018 was a year of progress for CyanConnode whereby costs were dramatically reduced (-22%), evidence of real commercial traction emerged in key region India (£15m order book) and £5m of equity capital was raised to scale the business. FY18 revenues were slightly light due to accounting factors with a directly proportional impact on net income, with the group’s cash position inline with forecasts. Our forward estimates remain intact as we take encouragement from Q1’19 performance reported to be on budget and several contracts already won YTD. CyanConnode’s shares have fallen 29% YTD and trade on a modest 1.4x FY19E EV/sales relative to its projected growth profile. We reiterate our Buy rating and see substantial upside 12m PT of 12p.

Companies: Cyanconnode
  • 23 Jan 17

Building differentiated growth

With its £45m acquisition of Ronez Ltd, a vertically-integrated aggregates producer in the Channel Islands, SigmaRoc has emerged as a new, growth-orientated construction materials company. But utilising management’s experience with industry majors, its growth model is differentiated from the regionally-focused ‘buy-and-build’ strategy typically employed in the sector – rather than target market share in a particular geography, SigmaRoc is looking to build a portfolio of niche assets that avoid head-on competition with majors and which provide income diversification to maintain robust margins throughout the industry cycle. As the dominant operator in island markets where barriers to entry are high, Ronez fits this model well, and as a high-quality, cash-generative business with a long track record of profitability it also provides SigmaRoc with a solid platform from which to leverage its growth strategy – we expect the group to execute further earnings-accretive transactions and/or organic investments over the coming months which should see the shares re-rate higher as management pursues its ambition of building a £500m market capitalisation business in five years.

Companies: Sigmaroc
  • 11 May 18

An unchanged dividend in the next three years

Q4 sales at end March were down by 3% yoy (like in Q3 but they were flat in H1) with still a good performance by EE (+5%) but a continued sharp revenue decrease of 13% in Global Services. Q4 EBITDA was up by 1% yoy, a correct number compared to the 2% decline recorded in Q3 but the annual EBITDA at £7.5bn was towards the low end of the £7.5/7.6 guidance given by the group for the full year. Note, beyond a good 13% increase on the consumer side, that EE’s EBITDA was again up by 5% this quarter and not down by 6% like in Q3 (this was due to higher customer investment costs following the launch of new, premium smartphones and watches). Management has also given an expected poor outlook for 2018/19. Revenue should be down by 2% yoy mainly as a result of significant regulatory price reductions in Openreach (last March, Ofcom issued its final statement on the Wholesale Local Access Market Review). The group also expects an impact from its decision to de-emphasise lower margin products, particularly in the enterprise businesses. In parallel, EBITDA is expected to be in the range £7.3-7.4bn (we had currently £7.4bn in our model) corresponding to a c.2% decrease. Note also that capex should be higher in 2018/19 than what we expected, at around £3.7bn. It should remain at this level in 2019/20 as the business increases network investment through Openreach’s Fibre First programme and further 4G and 5G mobile network build. So, very logically, the Board has decided to hold the dividend unchanged for this year at 15.4p per share. The Board also expects to hold the dividend unchanged in respect of the next two financial years, given the outlook for earnings and cash flow over this period. Not at all enough to make investors dream, while most European telcos are more likely to increase theirs. Even if the free cash flow in 2017/18 was £2,973m (up by almost £200m yoy due to favourable working capital movements), note that for 2018/19 the group expects a free cash flow of £2.3-2.5bn. So there are no worries in the short term about BT’s no longer “progressive” dividend.

Companies: BT Group
  • 14 Dec 18

Manx Telecom - Worth listening out for clearSound

In September, Manx Telecom (MT) subsidiary Goshawk announced the launch of clearSound (MTcS), an innovative mobile phone service for people with hearing needs. Following positive feedback from test groups, MT has signed a deal with BT/EE to launch the Goshawk proposition on their UK networks and it intends invest £10m on the launch over the next three years. This has a five-year target to attract 20% of the three million people in the UK with moderate to severe hearing loss. The recent sell off of MT shares, exacerbated by UK small-cap weakness, has exposed good value in the stock, now at a high 30% P/E discount to its peers.

Companies: Manx Telecom
  • 31 Jan 19

Openreach under pressure from regulated price reductions

BT released this morning its Q3 update which was slightly worse than expected in terms of EBITDA. EBITDA was indeed down by 3.5% yoy, while revenue declined as expected by 1%. So quite a poor release reflecting a new decline in EBITDA which offsets the previous solid H1 (EBITDA was up by 2% yoy). Note, however, this poor performance was quite expected as it is due to the regulated price reductions at Openreach on FTTC and Ethernet products. By the way, the outlook for 2018/19 has not been modified and management still expects EBITDA to be in the upper half of its £7.3-7.4bn range.

Companies: BT Group
  • 14 May 19

Is the dividend cut a buy signal?

Vodafone has released its annual results. Although there was not much new on the operational side, the dividend was cut to €0.09, as was unfortunately expected (but it was probably the right thing to do). This corresponds to 6% of yesterday’s stock price (vs 10% previously). The major telcos, offering a 4.5-5.5% yield, lend it some upside if the market has confidence, like us, in the sustainability of the dividend. We maitain our Buy on the stock.

Companies: Vodafone Group