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    Pacific Insight Electronics

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    Pacific Insight Electronics

  • 11 Apr 19

Quarterly Research Outlook

We’re just over three months in to 2019 and we’ve seen a 10% UK market rally, retracing much of the Q4 decline, such is the nature of fickle market sentiment. That said, many of the issues we wrote about three months ago that were impacting markets remain: notably Brexit, trade wars, geopolitics and global monetary policy. The 2019 rally thus far feels somewhat fragile, with competing forces of optimism on a potential trade deal which could underpin the rally, against the deterioration in underlying economic data that could ultimately undermine the recent market gains. In this context, we look at what the lead indicators and the market are telling us about the industrial cycle and the stocks most exposed to various industrial trends. The Q4 derating in short cycle industrials and autos had been vicious and while these sectors have seen a more solid footing in 2019, with earnings downgrades being priced in, it will likely take a trough in lead indicators before short cycle stocks can start to perform again and re-rate relative to the market.

Companies: ARS CYAN HYR LIT SOM ABBY AMS AMER ANX ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CALL CSRT TIDE DTG DEMG EMR FPO FST GTLY GENL GOR GRI GEEC HDY HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO INDI JHD JOG KEYS KCT KGH LAM LOK MACF MNO MANO MOD MKLW OXIG PCA PANR PARK PGM PHC PMO RBW RMM REDD RSW RNO RKH RBGP ROR SUS SCPA SHG SOLG TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF

  • 10 Apr 19

Games Workshop Group - On a mission

Games Workshop (GAW) is the global leader for tabletop miniature gaming, a market it created and the fastest-growing segment of the $12bn global non-digital games market. GAW drives international multichannel sales through a robust pipeline of innovative new product launches and extensive use of online and social media marketing to engage with customers. The company is highly cash generative and delivers outstanding returns on capital, supporting a healthy c 4% yield. Both our forecasts and valuation of 3,490p have upside potential.

Companies: Games Workshop Group
  • 15 Apr 19

Wrapping Up a Strong Year

By leveraging its innovation and efficiency in manufacturing and sourcing, maintaining strong customer relationships, successfully integrating acquisitions and continuing strong financial management, Design Group is expecting to deliver 9.8% organic sales growth with a 37% annual increase in sales. Margin expansion is expected to continue and impressive cash conversion has driven average gearing below 1.3x EBITDA.

Companies: IG Design Group
  • 17 Apr 19

Games Workshop Group - Marching on up

As outlined in our recent initiation note, ‘On a mission’, Games Workshop’s (GAW) focus on international multi-channel expansion, customer engagement and product innovation, alongside its openness to exploring ways in which to leverage its rich intellectual property (IP) to generate royalty income, is continuing to deliver outstanding results. Strong trading since the half year, and new licensing agreements, lead us to upgrade our FY19 and FY20 earnings forecasts by c 14%.

Companies: Games Workshop Group
  • 18 Apr 19

Better than expected Q1 19

Unilever reported Q1 results which beat expectations, pushed by a strong performance in emerging markets and the Home Care division. Guidance has been reiterated. Coupled with our confidence on the portfolio’s reshaping strategy, an increase in our estimates is expected.

Companies: Unilever
  • 18 Apr 19

Walker Greenbank - Tough FY19, dividends rebased

A new CEO appointment follows other board changes; with tough UK conditions set to persist, operational improvements, international growth and brand development are all firmly on the agenda and a refreshed strategic update will come from the new team later in the year. With a broadly maintained payout ratio in FY19, lower earnings drove a similar reduction in dividends. With lower earnings anticipated in FY20, the company is trading on a prospective 3.8% dividend yield and a 7.8x P/E.

Companies: Walker Greenbank
  • 14 Jan 19

UK Housebuilding Sector in 2018

‘From the deserts of East Ham to the gardens of Cottenham’, the UK Housebuilding Sector was whacked to the tune of 27% in 2018; and not one share price (out of 18) rose on the London Stock Exchange.

Companies: BWY CRST BDEV WJG PSN RDW TW/ MCS CSP TEF BKG ABBY GLE

  • 27 Mar 19

Rally seen in the first quarter stalls

Parliamentary and Brexit developments continue to hold centre stage, although the precise path forward remains as unclear as ever. The uncertainty over Brexit, worries over a possible slowdown in the US and the outlook for global economic growth generally have all contributed to the recent falls in markets. While the rally seen since the start of the year has petered out, most indices have still made progress. In Share News & Views we comment on Bloomsbury Publishing, Bonhill Group*, Braemar Shipping Services*, Burford, Clarkson, LightwaveRF*, Marshall Motor Holdings and Synectics*.

Companies: AOR APC BONH BMS CTG CRPR DMTR ESC EUSP FDM FA/ LWRF LSAI NKTN PCF SNX TCN VRE W7L

  • 03 Apr 19

The Monthly April 2019

Although the focus of Hardman & Co is predominantly on companies in the smallto mid-sized market capitalisation range, when writing research reports, it is important to position them relative to the industry in which they operate. Apart from Japanese companies, all the major global pharmaceutical companies have reported full-year results for 2018 over the past few weeks; therefore, we have taken the opportunity to update our industry database and generate the first cut of global rankings for 2018. For an industry that requires a long investment cycle – it still takes, on average, 10 years from discovery to launch of a new drug – decisions made many years ago have important consequences on current financial results. Therefore, looking back at operational performance over 20 years reveals how different company strategies have panned out.

Companies: OPM AVO AJB AGY ARBB CMH CLIG CSH DNL GTLY HAYD KOOV LWRF MCL MUR NSF OXB PCA PHP RE/ REDX STX SCE SIXH TON VAL VTA W7L

  • 09 Apr 19

FY18 slightly ahead. Organic sales growth 31%

Sumo announced FY18 figures today that revealed better than expected organic, cfx sales growth of 31% year on year and adj. EBITDA that was slightly ahead of our (and consensus) expectations. Adjusted sales were £38.9m vs Zeus/cons. £37.3m/£36.5m, adj. EBITDA was £10.4m Vs Zeus and cons. at £10.3m and adj. PBT was £9.04m Vs Zeus and cons. of £9.1m. The quoted adj EPS, per the press release was 5.6p (basic) but using a lower tax charge than we modelled. Adjusted for this it is in line with Zeus/cons. EPS of 4.9p (assuming 19% corporation tax rate / 150m shares in issue). Adjusted figures are pre IFRS 15 and 16. Importantly our forecast for FY19 remain unchanged and are increased slightly for FY20. Post IFRS 15 and 16 estimates are also shown as a footnote to the p&l, where it is possible to quantify at this stage.

Companies: Sumo Group
  • 05 Jul 18

No surprises

SDY has reported Underlying PBT and 2018/19 guidance in line with its preclose update issued on 10th May. Additionally it has announced a 25p special dividend and an 11.4% increase in its ordinary dividend. Accompanying commentary suggests further emphasis shift to capital light distribution but commitment to the physical estate despite current difficult trading.

Companies: Superdry
  • 22 Jan 19

Christmas Cracker!

With a geographically well diversified portfolio, strong customer relationships, manufacturing and sourcing expertise and successful integration of acquisitions, Design Group has delivered 9% like-forlike sales growth for the nine months to 31st December 2018. It is on track to meet current market expectations and deliver greater than 20% fully diluted EPS growth for the full year.

Companies: IG Design Group
  • 19 Mar 19

Focusrite - A solid first-half performance

Focusrite has reported solid H119 revenue growth, reflecting particularly strong performance in Europe and for its Focusrite ranges globally. We leave forecasts unchanged, recognising the macroeconomic challenges in H2 arising from US tariffs and Brexit. The company is actively seeking opportunities to use its substantial net cash balance (H119: £26.2m), as reflected in the current valuation.

Companies: Focusrite
  • 05 Jul 18

Analyst Meeting Feedback

Mixed signal but some re-assurance on most recent patterns Further range extension and availability enhancements in prospect Marketing spend to accelerate as brand grows.

Companies: Superdry
  • 05 Mar 19

Labskin secures £400k digital laboratory equipment in Cellulac - Integumen deferred loan

The vertically integrated skin-testing and products Company has agreed an asset purchase from Cellulac, a Company in which Integumen holds a minority stake (9.35%). The equipment comprises a Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry and High-Performance Liquid Chromatography units and ancillary equipment to be deployed at Integumen’s recently expanded laboratory.

Companies: Integumen