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    Pacific Insight Electronics

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    Pacific Insight Electronics

  • 16 Jul 19

Small Cap Feast

Voyager AIR The Company will focus on the acquisition, leasing and management of primarily widebody aircraft, with asset management services to be provided by Amedeo Limited the IPO will comprise a Placing and Offer for Subscription of Shares to raise up to approximately US$200m. Uniphar, a diversified healthcare services business with a workforce of over 2,000, is looking to join AIM. Raising EUR135m with market cap on admission of EUR309.6m, expected 17 July 2019. Roxi Music UK music streaming service plans London IPO as it goes up against Spotify. They have appointed investment bank Arden Partners for an initial public offering (IPO) on the London Stock Exchange later this year.

Companies: CALL BIRD ABC KDR EMAN BST SCE ZEG SAG FUL

  • 15 Jul 19

Transformational disposal = value & focus on Brands

The big news today is the completion of the strategic review in Manufacturing, and proposed disposal to a large North American buyer for £35m, a premium to the market value of the group. While the trading update was slightly shy of expectations, this disposal is transformational, realising significant value for investors and shifting the focus to being a pure owned brand specialist with future expansion potential. Our fair value estimate is c280p post disposal but this would grow to >300p on accretive M&A.

Companies: Swallowfield
  • 02 Jul 19

Where’s the Value?

Warren Buffett once said that as an investor, it is wise to be ‘fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful’. Fear is not in short supply right now.

Companies: OPM ALU ANCR BLV CONN CRC FDL GATC HAT LEK MMH MCB MWE NXR NTBR NOG PAF PEG RFX SRC TEF TEG TPT VTU WYN XLM

  • 02 Jul 19

THE MONTHLY July 2019

When advisers first start looking at business relief (BR) products, there is much to take in: the rules governing such products; the investment strategies being used; and what the investment risk is. It is easy to lose sight of the fact that, for non-AIM products, the investment is being made directly into a company or partnership, rather than a fund. It is, therefore, essential that governance is part of the diligence process.

Companies: AVO AJB AGY ARBB CLIG DNL DPP FLTA GTLY KOOV LWRF MCL MUR NSF OXB PCA PHP RE/ REDX RMDL STX SIXH TRX TON SHED VAL VTA W7L

  • 05 Jul 19

UK Housebuilding Sector in 2Q 2019

Dwight Barkley PhD is a Professor of Mathematics at the University of Warwick. He studies waves in excitable media such as the Belousov-Zhabotinsky reaction, heart tissue and neurons. In 1997, Dr Barkley and Dr Laurette Tuckerman, a Paris-based mathematical physicist, developed ‘bifurcation analysis for time steppers’, which is a technique for modifying computer codes to perform bifurcation analysis. More lyrical, perhaps, Dwight is also known for formulating an equation to estimate how long it will be until a child in a car asks the question “are we there yet?” And, it is shown on the image on page 3 of this report. Herein, there are three factors which decide the timing of this wearisome question i.e. one plus the number of activities, divided by the number of children in the car squared. That figure is then added to the time it took the family to get into the car and set off on its journey. Crucial in putting off the first query as to the proximity of the destination are onboard activities for children i.e. no activities equals a question before leaving the driveway. Dr Barkley says: “Mathematics can help answer many of life’s questions”. If only the Brexit journey were that simple. It is not. We are all children now stuck in the back seat; and, maybe, we are still on the driveway with a dearth of on-board activities. Yes, three years on Brexit-resolution-fatigue is making itself felt across the board, including the UK Housebuilding Sector, where the fall in value in 2Q’19 was 7%. Berkeley said something similarin its final results, on 20 June, when it lamented an uncertain operating environment and “a lack of visibility in the political outlook”; and its PBT is expected to fall by a further third this fiscal year. The daily Sector value chart is also lurching from top-left to bottom-right (as is the British Pound versus the Euro). Yes, there were two palpable positives in 2Q from the NHBC and UK Finance about building activity and mortgages; plus, on the third day of 3Q, CBRE’s bid for Telford Homes. Nonetheless, prospective earnings growth for the Sector is now flat in both 2019 and 2020. This is about the journey.

Companies: MCS TW/ PSN BDEV ABBY CSP WJG BVS TEF INL GLV GLE CRST BWY BKG

  • 26 Jun 19

Getting Satisfaction in 2020

Gear4music matched market expectations in FY2019 after encountering well reported turbulence in the second half of its financial year. A combination of greater focus on customer satisfaction and strong financial resources augurs well for an improved profit performance and associated shareholder value creation in FY2020. The new fiscal year started well.

Companies: Gear4music
  • 02 Jul 19

Positive trading update

InnovaDerma released a trading update for the year ending 30 June 2019, indicating pre-tax profits more than doubling to c.£1.5m (in line with expectations) and with better-than-expected year-end cash in excess of £1.7m. Revenues are expected to be c.£13m, implying 21% growth for the full year and c.40% in H2, reflecting the normal H2 seasonality of Skinny Tan sales but also the additional impact of launching Skinny Tan into Boots stores in mid-March. After the understandable disappointment at the interims, which was the result of destocking by Superdrug and lower DTC channel sales, both of which have been successfully addressed, this update provides evidence of a strong platform from which to develop the business further, underpinned by the expectation of positive free cashflow in FY 2020. We are leaving our forecasts unchanged and maintain our target price of 200p, at which level the stock would trade on an adjusted FY 2020 P/E of 17.3x, EV/EBITDA of 11.2x and EV/Sales of 1.7x.

Companies: Innovaderma
  • 05 Feb 19

THE MONTHLY February 2019

This Investment Research Paper addresses the issue of renewable power generation in the UK and in mainland Europe, which – after the deep-seated financial crisis of 2008/09 and the ensuing recession – now has better prospects of achieving critical mass. It also considers investment perspectives.

Companies: OPM AVO AJB AGY ARBB AVCT DISH BUR CLIG CSH DNL DPP GTLY GDR HAYD KOOV MCL MUR NSF OXB PCA RE/ REDX STX SCE SIXH TRX TON VAL VTA W7L

  • 26 Feb 19

Share & share alike

We have seen a continuation of the rally evident so far this year. The factors are familiar with greater optimism regarding US-China trade talks. At home, the path to Brexit remains unclear as D-day looms. The possibility of a delay has increased. The company reporting season continues to highlight winners and losers with the majority of results in line. We have also seen an uptick in corporate M&A. Results set the morning agenda and Brexit votes the evening one. In Share News & Views we comment on AorTech International*, APC Technology*, DeepMatter*, Golden Ocean Group and P&O Ferries/DP World.

Companies: AOR APC BONH BMS CTG CRPR DMTR ESC EUSP FDM FA/ LSAI NKTN PCF SNX TCN VRE W7L

  • 26 Jan 17

LIBERUM: Jimmy Choo* - We upgrade forecasts on strong H2 sales momentum

Jimmy Choo has announced FY 2016 sales ahead of expectations, +2% at constant currency while an FX tailwind means reported sales grew 15%. Retail and Licensing grew ahead of Wholesale, as planned, this beneficial mix effect driving significant gross margins gains.

Companies: Jimmy Choo
  • 11 Apr 19

Quarterly Research Outlook

We’re just over three months in to 2019 and we’ve seen a 10% UK market rally, retracing much of the Q4 decline, such is the nature of fickle market sentiment. That said, many of the issues we wrote about three months ago that were impacting markets remain: notably Brexit, trade wars, geopolitics and global monetary policy. The 2019 rally thus far feels somewhat fragile, with competing forces of optimism on a potential trade deal which could underpin the rally, against the deterioration in underlying economic data that could ultimately undermine the recent market gains. In this context, we look at what the lead indicators and the market are telling us about the industrial cycle and the stocks most exposed to various industrial trends. The Q4 derating in short cycle industrials and autos had been vicious and while these sectors have seen a more solid footing in 2019, with earnings downgrades being priced in, it will likely take a trough in lead indicators before short cycle stocks can start to perform again and re-rate relative to the market.

Companies: ARS CYAN HYR LIT SOM ABBY AMS AMER ANX ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CALL CSRT TIDE DTG DEMG EMR FPO FST GTLY GENL GOR GRI GEEC HDY HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO INDI JHD JOG KEYS KCT KGH LAM LOK MACF MNO MANO MOD MKLW OXIG PCA PANR PARK PGM PHC PMO RBW RMM REDD RSW RNO RKH RBGP ROR SUS SCPA SHG SOLG TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF

  • 10 Jun 19

LIBERUM: Codemasters* - Time to accelerate

FY19 financials are ahead of our IPO projections, partly reflecting Management's deal execution and the value of the group’s leading racing IP, at a time of unprecedented demand for gaming content. Our conversations with both public and private UK gaming companies suggest there is a step-change in the commercial outlook across the sector.

Companies: Codemasters
  • 20 Jun 19

Walker Greenbank - Year to date trading as expected

An in line AGM update is to be welcomed after a tough trading year in FY19. Market conditions have yet to show any marked improvement, but UK cost savings and some international progress support our existing estimates. The new management team expects to deliver a strategy update in the Autumn and this should provide insight regarding future growth prospects. The rating has increased in recent months though FY20 should represent trough earnings in our view.

Companies: Walker Greenbank
  • 03 Jul 19

LIBERUM: Codemasters* - GRID update

Management have decided to move the launch of GRID from September into October for a more favourable release window and and closer to the November launch of Google’s cloud gaming service Stadia, which features GRID as a launch title. This has no impact on financial forecasts but clearly the new date should help underpin the expected positive critical and commercial reception for the game.

Companies: Codemasters
  • 03 Jul 19

Telford Homes - Suspension of estimates

For the purposes of the Takeover Code, Edison Investment Research is deemed to be connected with BCA Marketplace. Under Rule 20.1 Edison must not include any profit forecast, quantified financial benefits statement, asset valuation or estimate of other figures key to the offer, except to the extent that such forecasts, statements, valuations or estimates have been published prior to the offer period (as defined in the Takeover Code) by an offeror or the offeree company (as appropriate) in accordance with the requirements of the Code. Consequently we have removed our estimates until the Offer Period ends.

Companies: Telford Homes