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  • 19 Apr 18

Q1: meets expectations

No major surprises. The underlying performance of +3.4% matches the expectations, helped by volume/mix, however, pricing seems to be somewhat weak. Investors should be pleased with the share buy-back programme. We see the company as being on track to deliver its FY guidance.

Companies: Unilever
  • 09 Nov 17

The Joy of Techs

This quarter we use finnCap’s Slide Rule to provide both top-down and bottom-up analysis of the UK’s Technology and Telecoms sectors. Our findings are very reassuring: the Tech sector scores the best (across all sectors) when considering Growth and Quality – Taptica*, Frontier Developments* and dotDigital* in particular stand out on these metrics. Given these attractive characteristics and growth prospects, the Tech sector is unsurprisingly one of the most expensive – currently trading at 17.2x FY1 EV/EBIT and 23.8x FY1 P/E, versus 15.0x and 18.5x respectively for the wider market. Despite valuations appearing high, we believe there are value opportunities. For example, Proactis* features in finnCap’s QVGM+ portfolio (ranked 17/462) – the company offers attractive organic and inorganic growth, with earnings forecast to grow by 26% CAGR over the next two years, but despite this, only trades on 15x FY1 earnings and offers 8% FCF yield in FY2.

Companies: 7DIG ALT AMO ARTA BOTB BLTG CTP CITY D4T4 DTC DOTD ELCO ESG FDEV GBG IDEA IDOX IMTK IGP IOM KBT KCOM KWS LRM MAI MMX NASA NET PHD QTX QXT RCN 932 SSY SEE SIM SPE SRT STR TAP TAX TEP TPOP TRAK UNG VIP ZOO CYAN ONEV

  • 01 Feb 18

Quality earnings in a high growth sector

Sumo Digital is a market leading, independent global video games co-developer, who has deep long-term relationships with the world’s largest publishers that enables them to provide full turnkey solutions for AAA games. The core business has stable, long term revenues based on a premium games development service, a formidable track record of delivery and high utilisation rates. The business currently trades on an EV/EBITDA of 15.1x and P/E of 22.3x to December 2018, an attractive discount of c.41- 45% to the average of the UK peers. We see significant upside potential to forecasts from royalties and own IP development revenue streams. Post the December 2017 IPO, management and senior employees hold c.22% and Perwyn own c.28% of the enlarged share capital, with both subject to a 12 month lock-in

Companies: Sumo Group
  • 18 Jul 16

Machinations

Could Brexit be a positive for the UK Industrials sector? While the EU and UK are important to each other in terms of trade, the level of that importance is asymmetric: 44% of UK exports go to the EU and a further 10% go to countries with free trade agreements with the EU; only 15% of EU exports go to the UK. As a result, we feel that UK bargaining power is relatively weak and we need to accept the possibility that the UK drops out of the single market and trades under WTO terms with Europe. The extent to which this is a positive or negative for UK Industrials depends entirely on the value of Sterling versus the Euro or US Dollar. We analyse this and conclude that with a 7% (or greater) depreciation of Sterling (versus pre-Brexit levels), all the costs associated with WTO trade are more than compensated for. Big exporters become strategic winners and big foreign FX earners become financial winners. Largely domestic players are at risk. Export or die!

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  • 18 Apr 18

PSA: Opel terminates contracts with all its retailers

The company has cancelled the contracts with all its good 1,600 European retail partners. Management’s aim is to improve the profitability of the ‘last mile’ for Opel, i.e. the retailers will eventually get a lower compensation. According to media comments, Opel intends to sign new contracts with existing retailers, but probably not with all of them as their service is too diverse from mediocre to excellent.

Companies: Peugeot
  • 18 Apr 18

Strong divisional contributions partly absorbed by financing costs (Chargeurs)

Strong divisional contributions partly absorbed by financing costs EPS CHANGE CHANGE IN TARGET PRICE€ 29.2 vs 26.9 +8.62% Earnings adjustments essentially below the EBIT line matter less than the upgrades to the NAV after yet another strong year. CHANGE IN EPS2018 : € 1.28 vs 1.44 -10.6% 2019 : € 1.45 vs 1.57 -7.49% EPS adjustments are essentially the by-product of 2017 final numbers highlighting rising central costs and a higher than expected interest bill (excess resources). This new base as well as an allowance for 2018 negative USD impacts explain the bulk of the downgrades which are thus not related to operations. CHANGE IN NAV€ 30.1 vs 27.5 +9.81% The NAV allows for the upgrade of the Protective Films business after yet another very strong performance and solid growth perspectives. The value of the tax assets has been reappraised as the improved earnings outlook makes them more certain.

Companies: Chargeurs
  • 18 Apr 18

Management reduces 2018 profit guidance

This is Continental’s first profit warning since October 2016. During the last almost two years, the company was known for delivering positive surprises. As the euro’s strength has been a phenomenon for quite a while, we are astonished that the profit warning comes now.

Companies: Continental
  • 13 Apr 18

Managers fired and leave voluntarily

CEO Müller (contract expires in 2020) is fired and replaced by Herberg Diess. Head of HR Karlheinz Blessing (contract expires in 2021) is fired and replaced by Gunnar Kilian. Head of Purchasing Garcia Sanz leaves voluntarily. Porsche AG CEO Oliver Blume promoted to VW’s Management Board. The promotion of Gunnar Kilian and the firing of Karlheinz Blessing is a signal that the power of Bernd Osterloh has clearly not suffered from these changes. To promote his ‘General Secretary’ or ‘Speaker’ to the top management layer is a signal that Osterloh (why did he not take this position himself?) wants to increase his influence and that he does not like to be blamed when HR has to negotiate layoffs which will eventually become necessary. The firing of Müller and Blessing will cost the company severance payments in 2018. The management lay-offs and the promotion of Pötsch to the helm of the Supervisory Board in 2015 were costly for VW and this is now happening again.

Companies: Volkswagen
  • 20 Apr 18

6.6ppt growth difference between reported and organic

Faurecia’s revenue increased by 9.3% to €4.32bn on a currency-adjusted basis, but the euro’s strength resulted in a reported growth rate of only 2.7%. The discrepancy was particularly strong in LatAm (23.9ppt) and North America (13.9ppt) and, division-wise, in Clean Mobility (8ppt). To reach our full-year revenue projection of €17.76bn, reported sales growth should be a good 5% in the remaining quarters.

Companies: Faurecia
  • 26 Jan 18

The year of the Great Exhibition

2018 is the year of the Great Exhibition of the North. This summer, Newcastle and Gateshead will play host to a government-sponsored, 80-day marathon of events. Billed as the largest event in England this year, the Great Exhibition will showcase the best of the North East’s art, culture, design and innovation and we expect it to highlight the region’s ongoing success in high-end engineering, technology and life sciences. It may also reflect on the success of the North East’s plcs, the most striking example of which is Sage’s transition from 1980’s start-up to £9bn FTSE100 stalwart. We remain on the look out for the next Sage and expect the region to continue to produce attractive IPO candidates following Ramsdens’ success last year. Overall 2017 was a positive year for the region’s listed companies, one highlight of which was the takeover of Quantum Pharma, an N+1 Singer client, by Clinigen for £150m. We are confident that 2018 will be another successful year. Our top regional picks this year are Hargreaves Services, Zytronic and Applied Graphene Materials.

Companies: AGM BWY GRI GRG HSP IDH KMK NTG RFX UTW VNET ZYT

  • 09 Nov 17

AIM Journal


Companies: RWS G4M SRC PIM GAN ARTA

  • 13 Nov 17

Northland Capital Partners Limited Morning Report

FISHING REPUBLIC (FISH.L)

Companies: Fishing Republic
  • 07 Dec 17

Trading update & acquisition

Headlam has released a trading update for the ten months to 31 October 2017 this morning. A weaker market backdrop has resulted in the moderation of top-line growth in H2 driven by softening in demand in the UK; despite this FY17 PBT is anticipated to be in line with market expectations thanks to well executed efforts to realise operational efficiencies. Headlam has also announced the acquisition of Domus Group, a leading UK specification consultant and supplier of hard surfaces for £35.4m (8.0x FY16 EBITDA). Whilst not immune to the wider market backdrop, Headlam’s market position, scale and ongoing efficiency initiatives gives it a degree of robustness, enhanced by the announcement of an earnings enhancing acquisition. Headlam currently trades on 12.9x FY17 earnings with an attractive 4.5% yield and a strong balance sheet giving the potential for additional acquisitive growth or further special dividends.

Companies: Headlam Group
  • 24 Nov 16

Chill for agents, spring in housing volumes

Yesterday’s Autumn Statement appears to be: good for 'alternative' housing providers, UK-focused contractors and materials producers; potentially problematic for mainstream housebuilders; and bad news especially for lettings-dominated agents. Chancellor Philip Hammond’s key spending measures included an additional £3.7bn funding to boost new housing volumes and £1.1bn for roads. Shares in estate agents, however, have fallen in response to the threat to ban them from charging fees to tenants.

Companies: GFRD KIE FORT CWD FOXT WINK COST

  • 26 Jul 17

Advanced Materials – the building blocks of Tomorrow’s World

Whether we know it or not, advanced materials are a core component in the everyday life of the everyday person. They are the key material in items we often disregard, such as printer inks and lotions, to objects which defy the laws of gravity like the Airbus A380 and London’s Shard. Furthermore, these materials are not only essential to many objects and structures, but, due to their superior qualities, are the key to the advancement of many industries. One such example is the use of carbon fibre which offers five to ten times more rigidness, stiffness, and strength than its aluminium counterpart. As a result of these impressive qualities, motorsport and athletics have improved ten-fold since their mainstream use and new records are broken every year.

Companies: AGM AUTG BIOM BOY CAR EKT EMH EXO GRPH HDD HAYD IKA ITX CRPR MGAM NANO OXIG PLA SCE SYM VCT ZEN