Q323: fine despite the ongoing pain in Cement.

The results for Q3 were quite reassuring in the current context despite the still weak demand in Cement. In Mining, the business did much better – all the more so in that some investment decisions have apparently been delayed – while the order-intake was still up in the Q323 on a sequential basis. All in all, we don’t expect to change out numbers that much (expect perhaps a tick to the upside).

H123: raised guidance for FY23 does not tell the whole story...

The numbers released for H123 were decent, as expected. That said, the order-intake was a lot less convincing, particularly in Cement. Despite the raised guidance for FY23, our numbers for FY24/25 will have to be cut. The momentum on the stock has of course turned negative.

Q123 results: fairly sound and on track to meet the FY23 targets.

The Q123 results were very decent. The margins achieved in the quarter bode well in terms of the group’s ability to reach its FY23 targets, while the integration of TK Mining seems to be on track. Under these conditions, the guidance has been maintained.

Results as expected for FY22 and a rather cautious outlook for FY23.

The group released FY22 numbers much in line with expectation since the last guidance was issued only a few weeks ago. The outlook for FY23 looks cautious at first sight with revenues only marginally up and more or less stable margins. It remains to be seen if this stems from a degree of caution from the management or if the uptake in margins mentioned at the last Capital Market Day will rather materialize as of FY24 to reach FY26 targets.

Ambitious new mid-term targets

FLSmidth Capital Markets Day. The key take-aways were that the management intends to focus on the core Mining and Cement segments, considered as “pure plays”, whilst regrouping the non-core businesses in the NCA segment before exiting them over the next three years. The group also presented its mid-term (FY26) financial targets which call for a substantial improvement in profitability. We will revise our numbers and target price upwards in the light of these new ambitions.

A solid Q3 and the (dilutive) integration of TK Mining

FLSmidth released a very decent set of numbers for the Q3 22. Margins were good in Mining and improving in Cement. Disposals are expected in the “Non Core” new segment. The group reiterated its new guidance issued last month. We will fine-tune our numbers and integrate TK Mining.

A solid Q2 22 and a positive revision of the FY guidance

FLSmidth released a pretty solid set of numbers for Q2 22 The mining segment performed well as regards top-line revenues while the cement division’s profitability is improving The group revised its FY 22 guidance upwards Expect little change to our forecasts after this release

A solid Q1 22 with a supportive order-book.

The group reported a solid set of numbers for Q1 22 The Cement segment seems to be recovering, which is obviously excellent news The yearly guidance was reiterated despite the macro context We will not change our numbers much after this release

FY21 driven by the Mining segment with a rather expected outlook

The numbers came in at the upper end of the guidance released after Q3 (note sales and EBITA numbers were released on 27 January). The momentum in Q4 was mainly due to Capital business (as opposed to services). This is particularly true for the Mining segment (order-intake +34%), much less the case in Cement (-28%). The Mining segment should see the integration of thyssen mining by the end of FY22 and improve the mix. The outlook is rather “neutral”.

A sound Q3 and confirmation of the yearly guidance

The Q3 21 numbers were altogether satisfying. Margins improved across the board, while the order-intake was healthy. Cement’s profits were still subdued but improving. We will revise our numbers slightly upwards after this release.

H1 21 in line; waiting for the rebound in Cement

The H1 numbers are showing a rebound compared to Q1 in terms of profitability, due to a higher share of Services as opposed to Equipment The closing of the transaction with thyssenkrupp is expected in H2 22, adding some 50% to the group’s mining business The group intends to raise c.15-20% new equity to fund it (EGM on 26 August) The slightly improved guidance is good news No major change to our numbers which do not yet include the “thyssenkrupp transaction”

Slowly getting better

Revenues are significantly down yoy as expected, particularly in Cement Margins could be kept thanks to cost-cutting and a higher share of services The group looks set to at least reach its full-year targets Negotiations with thyssenkrupp still going on We will adjust our valuation due to the more positive momentum in the group’s order-intake

FY20 in line, with an uninspiring outlook

FY20 results came out bang in line with our numbers and consensus The short-term outlook looks rather modest, with numbers more or less flat vs FY20 The Cement business is the rock in the shoe of the group, while Mining is doing OK The absence of a recovery in Cement overshadows the performance of Mining The market will not appreciate the withdrawal of mid- to long-term targets

Q3 20: better sequentially

Q3 was decent after the trough in Q2 Mining is still doing better than Cement The group has fine-tuned its FY20 guidance (under current conditions) This may prove optimistic given the worsening pandemic context We will slightly downgrade our forecasts after this release

Q1 20: a mixed bag

Record-high order-intake in Q1 20 on service and large mining orders Margins a bit disappointing Visibility is low on FY20 We will adjust downwards our numbers, with an under-proportionate impact on our valuation

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