Maersk remains a Sell as 2026 earnings risk is dominated by persistent supply-side pressure. A Red Sea/Suez reopening would likely accelerate rate normalization, pushing results towards the low end of guidance rather than providing upside. While management points to scrapping as a potential mitigant, cash-rich owners are incentivized to preserve optionality and market share, limiting meaningful scrapping near term. Our 2026 estimates sit below consensus (EBITDA USD 5.2bn; EBIT –USD 792m), reflec ....
