Fortum will report 3Q25 results pre-market this Wednesday 29 October. We already published our preview here, but in recent days we have become more cautious on results-day downside risk, and we reiterate our Underperform ahead of the numbers. In particular, we see a risk that Fortum could give some outline detail on what will (and will not) be discussed at its 25th Nov CMD, which could bring forward travel/arrive risk to this week. We also preview potential CMD announcements, and what they could mean for the shares, at the end of this note. There are several cautious observations we make heading into Wednesday: . Fortum''s +20% move since early Sept is one of the sharper pre-results/CMD moves seen in the sector this year, which should put investors on alert for travel-and-arrive risk even before studying fundamentals in our view. . The 3Q numbers themselves are likely to be weak due to nuclear outages, per our earlier preview here. . Back in Sept when we wrote the preview, we observed that weak 3Q numbers might be offset by consensus upgrades to FY26+ on strong Nordic power forward prices. But since then power prices have fallen, with the 2026 region-adjusted calendar forward down 9% or EUR4/MWh since late Sept. . Popular US data centre power demand stocks, which have become increasingly correlated with Fortum, suffered a pullback in mid-October, and EDP/EDPR are suffering today on broker downgrades citing CMD travel/arrive risk, but no such move has yet occurred for Fortum, whose CMD comes 2-3 weeks after EDP/R''s. . Clients, particularly US-based hedge funds, have been bullish on the prospect of a data centre PPA announcement at the CMD on 25th Nov. However recent press reports suggest some hyperscalers are putting projects on hold in Finland due to uncertainty over electricity taxes. Moreover, there was no suggestion on Fortum''s 2Q conference call in August that any long term DC PPAs were under discussion at that time, with the CEO instead...