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15 Aug 2025
2Q results & CC: Puts and takes

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2Q results & CC: Puts and takes
Fortum Oyj (FORTUM:HEL) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
15 Aug 2025 -
Author:
Wyburd Harry HW | Xu Joy JX -
Pages:
13 -
Having run numbers and m-t-m''d our model, the impact of today''s warning is probably not as big as the 3-4% decline in the share price. But multiples remain above l-t averages and there wasn''t any substantial positive news on DC demand to back up the recent share price run. Maintain UP.
Guiding FY output down c3TWh vs. our prior ests, no impact on 2026+ though
Clarifying the earlier warning on volumes, our interpretation of mgmt. comments on the call is that FY nuclear output is now looking in the low 23s TWh and hydro in the low 18s. We previously had 24.5 and 19.8 TWh respectively in our model. Each 1TWh is worth about 5% to EPS, so reflecting the new outlook cuts our ''25 EPS by nearly 15% in isolation. This only impacts FY25 with the co emphasising a return to normal volumes expected for FY26. The loss of OCF in FY25 relative to our prev. expectation is cEUR120m, equivalent to c1% of market cap.
Data centre demand dominating QandA as usual, but no major breakout comments
Probably a record amount of QandA on the call probing the DC power demand outlook. Key co comments were: 1) TSO demand forecasts are applying a substantial haircut to 35GW of DC connection applications, and this approach agrees with Fortum''s assessment of likely actual demand, 2) actual demand growth is likely 2-3 years away from picking up based on DC planning and construction timeframes, 3) have not signed any new long term PPAs recently with customer demand focused on the 3-5 year tenor, 4) Fortum think the long forward curve 2028+ doesn''t properly reflect likely demand increases in the pipeline.
Numbers: cutting ''25, raising ''26+, PT +5% to EUR 11.3
We cut FY25 EPS 12% on lower output offset by positive m-t-m effects from a rise in region-adjusted power forwards since our last update. The m-t-m results in +7-9% to our FY26/27 EPS. Stock is now on 16.1x our ''26E EPS and 5.6% DY on ''26E DPS. On P/E that is a 10% premium to the 14.7x two-decade average, though closer to the l-t avg....