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29 Oct 2025
3Q25 results first take - Miss at OP
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3Q25 results first take - Miss at OP
BNPP Exane View: 15% miss at operating profit, driven by lower nuclear volumes. Despite the upgrade to 2025 optimisation premiums from EUR8 to EUR10/MWh, that still leaves a 70% fill rate on FY25 consensus vs. nearly 80% last year, creating downside risk to FY consensus in our view. EPS is in line, perhaps partly driven by slightly better interest and tax, but also because it looks like there might have been a glitch in the Vara EPS figure, which is in line with our est even though we were c10% below on OP. Debt also looks a touch high at EUR1.3bn vs. FY Bbg. Cons of EUR1.0bn (no Q3 cons). No mention of data centre PPAs, beyond confirming that the Finnish Government decided to increase its data centre power tax from 0.05 c/kWh to 2.24 c/kWh starting in July 2026, with an offsetting support model still under negotiation.
Fortum has released its 3Q25 results. Headline figures and guidance updates are in the table below. In addition to those, other key observations from the release are:
. Company comment on output: ''In 2025, the total generation volumes are expected to be clearly below the normal level. Currently, the expected decrease of total nuclear volumes for the full year is 3.6 TWh, 3.0 TWh of which realised in the first three quarters of 2025. Fortum assumes that its annual hydro volume in 2025 will be below that of a normal hydro year, which has been 20-20.5 TWh'' Our current BNPPE FY volume assumptions, last updated at Q2, are 18TWh for hydro (vs. a normal year of c20.5TWh) and 23TWh for nuclear (vs. normal year of c26TWh).
. Company comment on optimisation premium upgrade: ''For 2025, the annual optimisation premium included in the achieved power price for the whole outright portfolio is estimated to be approximately 10 EUR/MWh (previously 7-9 EUR/MWh).''
. 2025 hedging: now 90% hedged at EUR42.0/MWh (vs. previously 80% at EUR41.0/MWh)
. 2026 hedging: now 70% hedged at EUR41.0/MWh (vs. previously 60% at EUR40.0/MWh), implying EUR47/MWh on incrementally hedged...