Fortum is a popular long on the back of simplification, power price gearing and cheap headline multiples. However we think the market hasn''t considered the potential for the dividend to hold back the shares. Moreover, our scenario work looking at Russia disposal dilution and use of balance sheet on a special divi or acquisition suggests only limited upside. There isn''t downside to our TP; we just see greater upside in peers on equivalent power price assumptions. We launch at Underperform. The positives are well understood ... we don''t deny them Management have derisked the company by exiting cleanly from Uniper, leaving Fortum as a straightforward green (mainly hydro/nuclear) power generator, with earnings geared to higher power prices, and multiples looking cheap vs. history on commodity price-swelled earnings. There is spare balance sheet capacity, which could be boosted further by a potential sale of Russian assets. But we look at the other side of the argument ... We see risks to the dividend - we assume a cut to EUR0.80 on FY22e from EUR1.14 in 2021, which would put the shares on a 5.3% yield, below the l-t average. It''s been historically rare for Fortum''s yield to fall below 5%, which could cap upside in our view, and even if the divi is not cut we believe sustainability questions could linger. We are cautious on power prices, especially ahead of the restart of Olkiluoto 3 and Ringhals 4 nuclear power plants in Feb/Mar. And our scenario work on Russia sale dilution based on the local GAAP Russian accounts, considering a subsequent special divi or acquisition suggests limited upside in either scenario, with potential execution risks on the latter. No downside to our TP - just greater upside for peers at equivalent power price assumptions Our SoTP-derived EUR15.2 target price reflects our view of limited upside for the shares due to the dividend dynamic, and our preference for peers such as RWE and Centrica with greater upside on equivalent...