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A Mixed Bag
Mix of small positives and negatives at Q2: better achieved pricing, better net debt, but weak hedging volumes and no improvement in Consumer Solutions. Overall nothing to change our investment view: we remain at Underperform on earnings volatility risk and limited catalysts vs. peers absent meaningful balance sheet deployment, which seems no closer based on the Q2 call.
Power generation: improvement in achieved pricing but hedging volumes remain low
Fortum''s EUR57.5/MWh achieved power sales price in Q2 was well above prevailing spot prices, and the company also achieved EUR70/MWh on incrementally hedged volumes for 2024 which compares well to the forward curve. Achieved pricing, therefore, has improved vs. Q1 but the actual volume of incremental hedging remains low, with only 5% of 2024 output sold during Q2. Fortum will start disclosing 2025 hedging next quarter and based on comments on the conference call we are cautious about the hedged volumes (by last Q3 Fortum had hedged 40% of 2024) and prices.
Balance sheet capacity keeps growing and yet no deployment in sight ...
Net debt fell in the quarter with operating CF and WC improvement offsetting dividend payments and capex. In addition, Fortum announced a strategic review of its Circular Solutions business (cEUR70m EBITDA but negligible EBIT) which might lead to a non-dilutive disposal which would further increase balance sheet capacity. The problem in our view is there is still no sign the company plans to deploy this capacity - decisions on nuclear and hydrogen investment are at least a year away, and mgmt. acknowledged potential to acquire Uniper''s Nordic assets might have reduced after Uniper expressed commitment to them at its recent strategy update. We didn''t get any sense that a share buyback or other form of capital return is under imminent consideration.
Equivocal on consumer solutions outlook
Overhedging issues in the consumer solutions division due to customers exiting expensive...