30 Oct 2024
Accelerated delevering
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Accelerated delevering
Fortum Oyj (FORTUM:HEL) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
30 Oct 2024 -
Author:
Wyburd Harry HW | De Antonio Alberto AD | Xu Joy JX -
Pages:
12 -
As Fortum continues to sell assets and signal declining capex, it is gradually winding down its net debt, to the extent that we now forecast an average of only 0.1x ND/EBITDA over 2024-30. That theoretically gives the company close to EUR3bn of balance sheet headroom - enough to buy back half of its free float if mgmt. were so-inclined. But in line with past results, Fortum gave no signs of wishing to deploy its spare capital. As a result, we struggle to see catalysts and remain at Underperform.
Building a war chest, but for what?
On the 3Q call Fortum updated on several anticipated cash inflows in Q4, including from the sale of its recycling unit and its recent settlement with Vestas. On our updated numbers we now expect the company to end the year with less than EUR300m of net debt, against EBITDA of ~EUR1.5bn. The company continues to remind investors that it could carry up to 2.5x ND/EBITDA, which would imply close to EUR3bn balance sheet headroom (more if spend on accretive acquisitions) - yet, Fortum continues to talk down the notion of either spending the money or returning it to shareholders, instead citing a need to retain a buffer for future commodity price and collateral volatility. A handful of new comments on the 3Q call suggested the co might be willing to make bolt-on acquisitions in the Nordics but would not go further afield to invest in e.g. new nuclear in the UK. And there was once again no engagement with the notion of a large capital return either via a special dividend or share buybacks.
Still waiting on evidence of data centre PPA upside
There were no new PPA signings in the quarter and the QandA discussion on the topic was not much different to the 2Q call, with Fortum expressing interest in signing long term PPAs with data centre offtakers, but not suggesting anything imminent is on the horizon. We continue to be sceptical that Fortum could sign a PPA with both a material volume and uplift to currently achieved prices.
Updating ests....