Fortum has suggested it may be poised to announce a premium PPA with a data centre or industrial offtaker. In this note we consider a bull and bear scenario for what this PPA could look like. Whilst we still see material differences between Nordic and US power fundamentals, we cannot ignore the company''s suggestion that they may sign a PPA materially above the forward curve. The share price over the coming weeks now hinges almost entirely on the size and premium of this PPA, which could drive a very wide range of terminal EPS outcomes. We think the outcome has now become too binary to argue either a bearish or bullish view with conviction. We raise to Neutral. US power curve upside readacross to Nordics - not necessarily an apples v. apples read Clients have drawn parallels with our US team''s work showing the US l-t fwd. curve isn''t accurately pricing forthcoming DC demand. Whilst we understand investors reading this across to the Nordics, there remain quite big fundamental differences between the two markets. The amount of upside to the illiquid / ''wrong'' Nordic forward curve could prove to be not as great as it has been in the US. Nonetheless the forthcoming PPA price will be seen by many as settling the matter Our client discussions in recent days suggest investors are ready to read the price of Fortum''s PPA as the de-facto terminal Nordic power price, to apply to all group output. We have to recognise an upside risk scenario, considered in this note, where the PPA prices at say EUR50/MWh l-t Nordpool, which could see buyside terminal EPS move to cEUR1.4. On a US-genco 20x+ P/E that would imply substantial further upside. It could then take a long time before actual l-t Nordic power fundamentals become visible enough to validate whether Fortum will actually achieve this price on all output. Shift to a probabilistic EUR18.5 TP on assumption PPA is signed; see p.2-3 for scenario work The outcome over the coming weeks has become binary and...