As the most exposed company in our coverage to commodity prices, and amidst intense focus on the impact of recent declines on companies across the sector, we think Fortum will remain challenged especially as the most frequently-cited catalyst of a special dividend/SBB now appears to have been ruled out. With limited underlying organic capex/growth drivers we stay at U/P. Spectre of commodity exposure lingers Nordic power slipped in January leaving benchmark calendar forwards at c.EUR40/MWh on basis of which we are c10% below consensus for this year. Furthermore, Nordic Guarantee of Origin prices (Bbg: NAEE00A4 Index) appear to have halved since the middle of last year, and although Fortum reiterated its Optimisation Premium guidance at EUR6-8/MWh, we are cautious about the effect of this price move given these certificates were cited as a relevant driver of the premium in past results presentations. We also note the recent warning from RWE, which we believe was partially driven by lower flexibility earnings, another important driver of Fortum''s optimisation premiums. Dividend catalyst has played out Some investors we spoke with in recent weeks anticipated a major move on shareholder returns: either a special dividend or a share buyback. And although we did get a gesture on dividends - Fortum paid the top end of its 60-90% payout range for FY23 DPS - the CEO appeared to rule out a special dividend or share buyback for the foreseeable future. Limited underlying growth drivers for now Fortum stated on the call that the saturated Nordic Power market does not support investment in domestic renewables. With few other organic growth avenues and recent reductions in capex guidance we see little in the way of underlying earnings growth drivers. As a result, amidst falling commodity prices and the playing-out of the dividend catalyst, we see limited impetus for inflows into the shares.