BNPP Exane View: Big beat driven by strong optimisation premiums due to high power market volatility in the quarter. FY optimisation premium guidance has been upgraded as a result, although 2026+ guidance is unchanged. Net debt came in at zero ahead of the dividend payment in Q2. These are strong numbers and come after recent underperformance - shares are likely to open strongly, although the upgrades look limited to 2025 only.
Fortum has released its 1Q25 results. The key highlights are:
. Comparable operating profit big beat, EUR462m vs. Vara consensus EUR364m (+27%)
. Comparable EPS big beat, EUR0.42 vs. Vara consensus EUR0.33 (+27%)
. Mar''25 net debt EUR13m (ie. effectively zero) - no viable consensus
Guidance updates:
. 2025 optimisation premium guidance upgraded to 7-9 EUR/MWh (previously: 6-8 EUR/MWh).
. 2026 optimisation premium guidance unchanged at 6-8 EUR/MWh
. Capex guidance unchanged (2025-2027 total EUR1.4 billion, of which growth EUR150-300m pa and maintenance EUR250m pa)
. Comparable tax rate guidance unchanged at 18-20% although now only applies 2025-26 (vs. prev 2025-27)
. Efficiency programme guidance unchanged.
Divisional highlights are:
. Generation comparable operating profit big beat, EUR436m vs. Vara consensus EUR363m (+20%): ''Despite the lower Nordic spot prices, we were able to reach a very good achieved power price ... of approximately 60 EUR/MWh, supported by a robust, double-digit optimisation premium, which was above the premium of the first quarter of 2024.''
. Consumer solutions comparable operating profit big beat, EUR47m vs. Vara consensus EUR34m (+38%), ''driven by improved gas margins in Poland and synergies from the brand mergers completed in 2024''
Hedging:
. 2025 hedging: now 75% hedged at EUR40.0/MWh for Q2-Q4 (vs. previously 75% at EUR42.0/MWh for Q1-Q4)
. 2026 hedging: now 50% hedged at EUR41.0/MWh (vs. previously 45% at EUR41.0/MWh), implying EUR41/MWh on incrementally hedged volumes
The conference call will begin at 09:00 UK time, dial...
