BNPP Exane View: Big miss. The drivers were expected but not the quantum, a 14-18% miss at the net for Q2 depending on whether you use Bbg or Vara consensus. The drivers are lower power prices in the Q due to abundant hydro and wind, and nuclear outages and weak basin inflows at Fortum hydro plants. In addition to the Q2 numbers, Fortum is guiding down FY output: nuclear expected to be a decrease of -2.9TWh (we currently have -1.5TWh vs. a normal year in our FY numbers), and hydro ''will be below that of a normal hydro year'' although not quantified how much lower. Co is saying a 2.2TWh YoY headwind in Q2 specifically, but will need to unpick on the call exactly how much remaining shortfall there is in the balance of the year. Each 1TWh is worth c5% on EPS on our model. The only bright spot is consumer solutions, sig. above cons. but not material enough to move the overall net result. Shares have been very strong in last 3-4 months; expect a negative reaction at the open. . 2026 hedging: now 60% hedged at EUR40.0/MWh (vs. previously 50% at EUR41.0/MWh), implying ~EUR35/MWh on incrementally hedged volumes, quite low although will be impacted by rounding. . Co comment on output: ''In 2025, the total generation volumes are expected to be clearly below the normal level. Currently, the expected decrease of total nuclear volumes for the full year is 2.9 TWh, 1.3 TWh of which realised in the first half of 2025. Of the effect expected in the second half of the year, the majority is estimated to materialise in the third quarter. Fortum assumes that its annual hydro volume in 2025 will be below that of a normal hydro year, which has been 20-20.5 TWh.'' . A normal nuclear year is c26TWh. We are currently at 24.5TWh for nuclear and 19.8TWh for hydro Conference call at 9AM UKT, joining link: https://fortum.events.inderes.com/q2-2025