Fortum will report 2Q25 results pre-market on Friday 15 August. Ahead of the release we have spoken to the company; we highlight there has been no change to guidance. We think this is going to be a weak quarter. Generation is likely to be impacted by a decline in output YoY in both nuclear and hydro due to outages and weather conditions, whilst both spot and hedge prices are lower YoY. There will also be non-recurrence of asset sale gains from 2Q24 and the negative impact of the Swedish property tax. As a result we forecast generation EBIT to fall by c50% YoY. If our 2Q net income forecast proves correct it would have Fortum booking 54% of FY net income consensus in 1H, compared to 68% last year based on 1H24a/FY24a, although in line with the 55% booked in 1H23a/FY23a, benefitting from the strong 1Q25 already reported. It''s also important to bear in mind that region-adjusted Nordic forward prices have rallied since we last updated our FY25+ estimates back in late April. A sensitivity to our published estimates marking to market for current forward prices would imply c7% upside to EPS in FY26+, but would only leave us slightly above consensus in FY26, and slightly below in FY27. Fortum is up around a quarter from its April lows (although flat vs. March), helped by the rise in Nordic power forwards and, we think, also lifted by a recovery in popular data centre-linked stocks in the US. However with Nordic forwards losing their upward momentum in the last couple of weeks and with a mixed outlook for the quarter, we see some basis for caution.