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29 Oct 2024
Fortum 3Q24 conference call key points & views

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Fortum 3Q24 conference call key points & views
Overall view on the call: A few minor tidbits on net debt evolution, potential for bolt-on acquisitions and the recent settlement with Vestas, but nothing game-changing on the important issues in our view: there remains little sign that Fortum is poised to sign a material data centre PPA, nor that they will do anything significant with their still-growing spare balance sheet capacity.
Key points from the call:
. Data centre PPAs. No new PPAs signed in 3Q but still in regular discussions with offtakers. There is demand for 5-8 year tenors but Fortum are ideally looking to extend rolling hedges for longer than that. Re: Microsoft data centre project (where Fortum has a heat offtake contract)- is proceeding well with good progress on permits, but timing of PPA and supplier selection is up to Microsoft, ''naturally we are keen to discuss a PPA with them''. Doesn''t really suggest there is anything imminent on the PPA front in our view.
. Power demand. The Finnish TSO has slightly lowered its expectation of power demand by 2030, from 131TWh to 126TWh (vs. 85TWh today). As of today, demand across the Nordics has returned to pre-crisis levels, but still seeing industrial demand lagging and delays in decarbonisation/electrification projects.
. Balance sheet and use of cash. Expecting to see some significant cash inflows in 4Q- proceeds from the recycling sale (c.EUR800m), income from the Vestas settlement (not disclosed, see below), income from minor tax cases and other smaller disposals. However, CFO declined to guide on FY net debt. Some interesting comments on use of balance sheet: 1/ did not engage with questions on special dividends/SBBs/debt buybacks and instead referenced the ability to pay a regular dividend of up to 90% of earnings, 2/ ruled out investing in UK new nuclear, 3/ said selective growth in core activities could include acquisitions if suitable, in hydro, nuclear, district heating. Suggests to us that a major special divi/SBB capital...