Fortum will report 3Q24 results pre-market on Tuesday 29 October. Ahead of the release we spoke to the company; we highlight that there has been no change to guidance.
On numbers, we expect:
. In Generation, lower EBIT YoY owing to lower achieved prices, especially due to low spot prices over the summer which were exacerbated by interconnector outages.
. In Consumer Solutions, we expect a slight improvement YoY as seen already in 2Q, as adverse customer behaviour and short covering losses should start to ease.
. In Other, we expect an improvement YoY due to cost savings.
Our Q3 estimates imply a 68% 9M/FY comparable EBIT fill-rate based on our own FY ests (which are in line with consensus), compared to 73% last year based on 9M/FY actuals, suggesting some tension on 4Q to achieve FY guidance, if our Q3 ests prove correct.
On the conference call, we expect key topics to be:
. Data centre power demand and PPA outlook, especially since the recent announcement on tech company partnerships with nuclear developers
. The recent announcement regarding the sale of the biobased solutions businesses in India
. Hedging captures price and incremental volume hedged
. Commentary and current trends on optimisation premiums
. Use of balance sheet - any update on dividend, incremental organic capex, or acquisition plans
