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29 Oct 2025
Fortum 3Q25 conference call key points & views: Fuel to the fire
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Fortum 3Q25 conference call key points & views: Fuel to the fire
Overall view on the call: Call was dominated by CEO comments on PPAs, which added fuel to the data centre thesis ahead of the CMD on 25th Nov. CEO stated that the company is in PPA discussions with several data centre operators, and that PPAs could attract several euros of additional premium on top of forward prices and optimisation premiums. Later comments were a bit more mixed and seemed to suggest no deals have been signed at present, but the substance is this is a positive change in wording vs. past calls, contrary to our expectation that the company might play down new PPAs today. That does not rule out a disappointment at the CMD in our view - as expectations are now acutely high - but it will be perceived to make the shares dangerous to position against over the next few weeks, irrespective of fundamentals or valuation.
Key CEO quotes on data centre PPAs (from Bbg transcript):
. ''We are in negotiations and discussions with actually several data centre operators''
. ''I''ll not pre-empt the CMD or Investor Day, but discussions are going on, certainly.''
. ''[on price premiums for PPAs] we talk about several euros of impact for longer-term contracts depending on what characteristics a particular contract would have and then optimization premium on top of that''
. ''has the nature and substantiveness of your negotiations on PPAs change since we last had the conference call on Q2?'' CEO: ''Not, not materially but ... we said that we continue to see robust demand''
. ''the underlying activity is at a good level. But then in all honesty, there''s a lot of uncertainty. So even with all these discussions, we don''t know what they will materialize into before deals are done.''
. These are clearly more positive comments vs. prior calls, both on PPA discussions and on premiums, even if they fall short of being 100% conclusive that a major PPA would be announced in Nov.
Wider points on PPAs / data centres demand:
. PPAs. Are in negotiations with several data centre...