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25 Nov 2025
Fortum CMD first take - No PPA
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Fortum CMD first take - No PPA
BNPP Exane View: This looks like a disappointment. After management quotes around the Q3 results alluding to premium data centre PPAs, and high expectations, there is no PPA announcement this morning. There are some moderate upgrades: co guiding to EUR1.26bn comparable operating profit by 2030, c7% above Bbg cons on availability and efficiency improvements, +EUR2 upward adjustment to optimisation premiums for 2026 (unch. 2027+), and a slight increase in 10 year rolling hedge target to 25% by 2028 (from 20% by 2026). This would have been positive in normal times but falls short of high expectations around a potential pricing event for long-term Nordpool via a DC PPA. There is always a chance the company could mention something new in the conference call later, but we think if there was a major signed PPA it would have been announced in the materials this morning.
Conf call at 8am UKT. Webcast link: https://fortum.videosync.fi/investor-day-2025/register
Main guidance updates:
. FY30 comparable operating profit guided at EUR1.26bn (+EUR330m vs. EUR930m LTM) vs. Bbg cons EUR1.18bn (+7%); ''improvement is based on own actions, for example improved fleet availabilities, efficiency improvements and organic growth. The improvement does not include capital expenditure, acquisitions or price impacts''
. Financial net debt-to-Comparable EBITDA target of up to 2.5 times (previously 2.0-2.5)
. Long term group return on net assets 14% (currently 10%)
. 2026-2030 committed capex expected at EUR 2bn excluding acquisitions including growth capex of approximately EUR750 million in total and maintenance capex of approximately EUR 250 million per year (so EUR0.4bn pa, vs. previously EUR0.47bn pa based on previous EUR1.4bn 2025-27 capex guidance). 2026 capex guided at EUR550m vs. cons EUR480m.
. Unchanged value creation hurdles: ''Fortum applies previously set investment criteria; project based WACC + 150-400 investment hurdles depending on technology or investment project''
. Unchanged...